Showing posts with label Blue Ocean Event. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blue Ocean Event. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.  

High Sea Surface Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on September 29, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 0.75°C higher than 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record again, following the 0.75°C anomaly on September 27, 2026.


On September 19, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface reached a record high temperature of 21.18°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.02°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. 


The above image shows sea surface temperatures through September 28, 2026, when the sea surface temperature was a bit lower than that earlier peak, but the anomaly was equally high, i.e. the sea surface temperature was 1.02°C higher than 1982-2010 again. The map on the right shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on September 28, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño. 

El Niño


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a record high sea surface temperature of 30.06°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 5, 2026, a record high anomaly of +3.49°C from 1982-2010 and 4.31°C higher than the 25.75°C reached on January 9, 2026. 

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 5, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted. 

The Niño 3.4 region is regarded as most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of more than 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.74°C in the bottom image) occurred in the year until now. 

The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños. 


The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows El Niño forecasts from October 1, 2026, for the Niño1+2 region (left) and the Niño3 region (right).


The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that the El Niño's peak strength is forecast to occur late 2026. 


Antarctic sea ice is already very low. The most rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice typically takes place in November and December, so this year this coincides with a Monster El Niño at its peak strength. The danger is that an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may occur soon, as early as late 2026, i.e. well before February when Antarctic minimum sea ice typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.


Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted. 


The temperature difference between the tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026. 


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.


The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.


These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane 

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other, such as ocean stratification, sea ice decline and sea level rise. At first glance, sea ice decline may not seem to contribute to sea level rise. However, its indirect contribution can be huge. Sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from melting glaciers (41%, IPCC AR6 data) and decline of ice sheets on land. 

Ocean thermal expansion

Firstly, loss of sea ice indirectly contributes to sea level rise, since sea ice loss comes with albedo loss, resulting in higher temperatures that cause thermal expansion. Oceans absorb more than 90% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance. As water absorbs heat, its molecules gain energy, move faster, and spread further apart.

In a 2014 analysis, researchers led by Krisina Pistone calculate that albedo decrease resulting from Arctic sea ice decline between 1979 and 2011 correspond to an additional 6.4 W/m² of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO₂ during this period.

Ice acting as a glue

Secondly, sea ice decline also has an impact on glaciers and ice sheets on land. The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and both the Thwaites glacier and the adjacent sea ice act as a physical buffer, glue or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea level rise and increased ocean heat result in more heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from above and from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise. Sea ice loss also contributes to destabilization of land ice by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below. 

Loss of latent heat buffer

Thirdly, with the disappearance of sea ice, the latent heat buffer disappears that would previously consume huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of sea ice melting. Loss of this buffer result in more heat remaining in the ocean, which can destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. Wild weather swings could also cause destabilization of sediments and subsequent methane eruptions, as warned about in this 2014 post and this 2025 post.

Why is this important?

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effects of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming warns how seemingly unrelated developments can combine, compound and make things progressively worse, with one danger feeding into and reinforcing other ones, causing collapse of buildings, infrastructure, industries and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally. 

What could be done about it?

How could the Biochar Economy be established? A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to vegetation planting such as perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand. 

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctica sea ice concentration on October 6, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right). The orange line on the image on right shows the median ice edge 1981-2010. 


On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. 


Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.  

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.


On October 9, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.88 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.75σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.


Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as late 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength late 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record. 

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. 

The image below shows that the September 2026 ocean temperature was 1.10°C higher than 1901-2000, the highest anomaly on record. The added trend reflects El Niño peaking late 2026, contributing to an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event followed by an Arctic Blue Ocean Event. 


The image below shows NASA ocean temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920. 


[ from the Extinction page ]
Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page. 

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place as industrial activity collapses.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress. 

Links
• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Global Time Series 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/tavg/1/0/1850-2026

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) - Analysis Graphs and Plots - custom plotter
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder 
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica 

• The Biochar group on facebook, created by Sam Carana May 29, 2011 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event  (2026) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/double-blue-ocean-event.html

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger  (2026) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/08/antarctic-sea-ice-increasingly-in-danger.html

• A Tale of Two Poles  (2026) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/a-tale-of-two-poles.html

• Antarctica  (2026) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica.html

• When Will We Die?  (2019) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Extinction (2016) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society  (2022) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan  (2019) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• The Climate Plan by Sam Carana  (2026) 






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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

Rising temperature

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).


The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on July 22, 2026 (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year (image below). 


The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures. The amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño is on track to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

[ The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026. ]
In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.


In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the Arctic surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the danger that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

[ Arctic heating up most strongly ]
This partly explains why the temperature rise is accelerating most strongly in the Arctic. The image on the right, adapted from NASA, shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 as high as 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and result in methane releases.

[ forecast for August 2, 2026 ]
Very high temperatures are increasingly occurring at higher altitudes. The image on the right shows a forecast for August 2, 2026, of high temperatures reaching Canada, as illustrated by the image on the right.

A recent study led by Christina Schädel warns that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature, while emissions from permafrost fires and thaw are often excluded from calculations of anthropogenic emissions.

A recent Northern Hemisphere lakes study led by Jian Zhou finds that as a critical thermal threshold of mean winter air temperature gets crossed, the sensitivity of ice loss increases by up to 22-fold. 

[ forecast for August 8, 2026 ]
The image on the right shows a forecast for August 8, 2026, of high temperatures hitting a large part of South Dakota, further showing that high temperatures can reach higher latitudes north. 

The forecast also constitutes a warning that higher temperatures at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere come with the danger of massive thawing of Arctic permafrost, melting of Arctic sea ice and releases of large amounts of greenhouse gases. 

Sea surface temperature

As temperatures at higher latitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post. 

As illustrated by the image below, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.


Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. 

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C (or 91.94°F) around North America on August 2, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic. 

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C, click on images to enlarge ]

The 2026 El Niño

The 2026 El Niño is on track to cause very high sea surface temperatures over the next few months. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts approach 5°C for parts of some members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).


The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts of many members partly exceed 5°C, while part of the mean approaches 5°C.


The image below shows the August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecasts for Niño 1+2 region (left), the Niño 3 region (center) and the Niño 3.4 region (right).


The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.59°C on August 4, 2026, 2.75°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.84°C in a span of less than 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 4, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1971-2000 on August 4, 2026. A huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.


High and rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño is still getting stronger and is on track to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow in early 2027.

Sea ice

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 4, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 4, 2026 (right).


As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice extent was 2.9 million km² lower than 1981-2010, a deviation of -4.11σ, on July 27, 2026 (highlighted in black). The year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. 


The above image shows that the 2026 global sea ice extent anomaly has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño is on track to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for both Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice, and comes with the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Blue Ocean Event

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds - by Jian Zhou et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610752123
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164551691999679

• Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach - by Christina Schädel et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03189-5
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163804667894679 
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Thursday, June 11, 2026

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update

Arctic sea ice

A Blue Ocean Event could be declared when Arctic sea ice reaches or crosses a threshold of 1 million km² in extent.

On June 14, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 10.680 million km², a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The Arctic sea ice extent has been very low in the year to date, despite the dominance of La Niña conditions. The Arctic sea ice extent will continue to fall rapidly as the 2026 El Niño is strengthening. Forecasts indicate that this El Niño will be the strongest on record.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice area was 7.35 million km² on June 22, 2026 (black), lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.60σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice area in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño.


Another measure is Arctic sea ice volume. The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 26, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) after the annual maximum volume was reached. 

The image below, from an earlier post, shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 

In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³. With strong melting taking place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in September 2026.

The danger is also highlighted by the animation below that illustrates that with melting as strong as it was through September 2007, there will be virtually no Arctic sea ice volume left in September 2026.


The animation below, made with NASA images, shows the Arctic sea ice just north of the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through June 10, 2026. This is where some of the thickest Arctic sea ice is located. The animation illustrates that even the thickest sea ice can break up with the pieces getting moved by wind and ocean currents into the Atlantic Ocean where they will melt away.


The combination image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 4, 2026 (left) and on June 18, 2026 (right).


The combination image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on the left and Arctic sea ice thickness on the right, both on June 24, 2026.


The 2026 El Niño 

The upcoming El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approach 4°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4°C for part of the mean.


The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America), where a rise of more than 4.4°C (from -1.6°C in the top image to +2.848°C in the bottom image) occurred within six months through June 21, 2026.


The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and also features in an earlier post. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).


According to NOAA, there is a 97% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and 98% chance of El Niño in January–March 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will be very strong in November 2026-January 2027.


The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño (red), La Niña (blue) and neutral episodes (grey). 


The image below, from an earlier post, shows the June 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
Temperature

The image below shows that on June 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026, with the Niño3.4 region highlighted.

The June 19, 2026, sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.4°C, a jump of 3.65°C in a span of just over 5 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. SST were higher only during the super El Niño in November 2015, as marked on the right of the image. 


The image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026. The temperature of the sea surface was as much as 5.4°C or 9.6°F higher (at the green circle, off the coast of South America) than 1981-2011 on June 19, 2026.


The image below Illustrates that the Arctic temperature was 4.6°C on June 21, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 2.39°C higher than 1979-2000. Peaks reached in earlier years are also marked, for 2016 and for 2023, both El Niño years. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on June 21, 2026, with the Arctic highlighted. 


The image below shows that the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 21.33°C on June 22, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.15°C higher than 1979-2000. The image also shows that a temperature of 22.72°C was reached on August 1, 2023, the highest temperature on record and 1.43°C above 1979-2000. Furthermore, the image shows that a temperature of 22.39°C was reached on July 10, 2016. Both 2016 and 2023 were El Niño years. The inset shows the Northern Hemisphere temperature on June 21, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that the world (60°S-60°N) sea surface temperature was 20.89°C on June 24, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 0.54°C higher than 1991-2020, while El Niño is strengthening. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

An earlier image, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, illustrates that on June 14, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (inset also shows anomalies on June 14, 2026) was 20.98°C, the highest temperature on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which also has marked the years 2023 and 2024, while the year 2025 is colored orange. 


Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Despite La Niña conditions in early 2026, which suppressed temperatures, 2026 SST were close to the record high 2024 SST, when El Niño conditions were present. Meanwhile, 2026 SST have reached the highest temperatures on record for this time of year. 

The combination image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic on June 11, 2026 (left) and on June 16, 2026 (right). The images show many areas with water temperatures high enough for no sea ice to be present. The green circle on the right marks an area where the sea surface temperature is -1.6°C. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The combination image below shows, on the left, temperatures above 0°C forecast over much of the Arctic Ocean including the North Pole for June 17, 2026, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer on the left, and on the right sea ice concentration on June 16, 2026, adapted from NSIDC. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On land in the Northern Hemisphere (where most people live), the average temperature departure from 1901-2000 will rise dramatically with strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA plot below. 


Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically in the course of 2026 for a number of reasons including acceleration of the temperature rise over the years (more than 1°C rise from 2013 as illustrated by the green trend in the above image) and rising strength of the 2026 El Niño.

The image below should act as a warning, illustrating the danger that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperatures on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026 that could cross the 3°C threshold.

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a temperature forecast for January 2027, with high temperature anomalies showing up all over the Arctic Ocean and over areas where currently sea ice is present around Antarctica. This indicates that there will be dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice.


The images below show forecasts for the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from December 2026 through March 2027, further confirming indications that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss. 

SSTA December 2026

SSTA January 2027

SSTA February 2027

SSTA March 2027

Antarctica

The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.

[ image from earlier post ]

Colored in red on the above image is an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of loss of Antarctic sea ice. While this extra forcing applied only to parts of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, it is a big deal, considering that all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019 amounted to an extra radiative forcing of +2.16 W/m² globally (see IPCC image on the right). 

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. 

Loss of Antarctic sea ice causes albedo loss, which can dramatically increase sea surface temperatures of the Southern Ocean. The image below is created with Southern Hemisphere January 2001 through May 2026 NOAA data with a trend added to highlight the danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss.


The danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss is further highlighted by the image below. The image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a 7-day change in sea surface temperature anomalies that is hitting Antarctic sea ice hard.


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on June 10, 2026.


High sea surface anomalies around Antarctica and thinning of Antarctic sea ice are not only due to the strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, but also due to a number of feedbacks that are not only strengthening but that are also amplifying the impact of each other, including:
• loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer,
• acceleration of the global temperature rise,
• stronger evaporation as temperatures rise,
• more water vapor as temperatures rise,
• stronger wind as temperatures rise, and
• rising salt content of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean. The mechanism behind the rise in salinity is discussed below. 

A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.  

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post warns that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.

The image below, from a 2025 study led by Wei Wang, shows that, while Antarctic sea ice has decreased over the past few years, the Antarctic ice sheet has gained mass recently. 


The image below shows Antarctic ice mass change from 2002 through May 15, 2026, by NASA. 


Driven by extratropical cyclones, strong winds can transport heat and moisture from the warmer Southern Ocean deep into the interior of Antarctica, where the water vapor condenses to fuel heavy snowfall events, as warned about in studies such as a 2025 study led by Jonathan Wille and a 2026 study led by Kyohei Yamada and as illustrated by the combination image below showing a forecast for June 2, 2026, for Antartica of temperature anomalies (left) and wind speed (right).


Ominously, the image below shows a relative humidity (RH) of 100% at the location marked by the green circle at 70 hPa over Antarctica on June 18, 2026.


This 70 hPa is a pressure level corresponding with an altitude in the lower stratosphere. RH shows the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor. Below 0°C and at 100% RH, water vapor starts turning into ice crystals that can fall down as snow. 

The image below, also adapted from nullschool.net, shows a relative humidity of 100% on June 18, 2026, at the surface at the location marked by the green circle.


The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows snowfall over Antarctica. The image is a precipitation forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z. 


The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows precipitable water standard deviation anomalies over Antarctica. The image is a forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z. 


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - Climate at a Glance - Time Series

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026

• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
• The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks - by Robert Massom et al. 
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/3271/2026
also discussed on facebook at: 

• University of Bremen - data browser

• Copernicus

• European Union, Copernicus Marine Service Data

• nullschool.net - relative humidity
also discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164364227369679

• Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land - by Wei Wang et al. (2025)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
News release at: 
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1080537

• NASA - Antarctic ice mass variation since 2002
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/ice-sheets

• Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica - by Jonathan Wille et al. (2025)
• Interannual Variations of Precipitation Events at Dome Fuji Station, Antarctica - by Kyohei Yamada et al. (2026) 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD045296
also discussed on facebook at: 
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