Arctic News: Blue Ocean Event

Showing posts with label Blue Ocean Event. Show all posts

Monday, March 2, 2026

The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026

The 2026 El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026.

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]

The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through September 2026 in the Niño3.4 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).

Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region indicate a "super" or very strong El Niño event.

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region from early January 2026 to March 1, 2026.

Ocean and air temperatures

During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates ocean heat building up in the Equatorial Pacific region.

During El Niño, more ocean heat comes to the sea surface and more ocean heat gets transferred to the atmosphere, resulting in elevated air temperatures. Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here.

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook and also at the Arcticnews group on facebook ]

Such changes can contribute to a rapid and steep rise in temperature, as the above image warns about. The above image shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image below shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño.

The image on the right shows that most forecasts point at a sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region in Sept 2026, indicating that a super El Niño event is on the way.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.64 million km² on March 10, 2026, one of the lowest extents on record for the time of year. The image is adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.

Arctic sea ice extent was 14.212 million km² on March 11, 2026, the second daily lowest on record, according to the image adapted from NSIDC below.

This is a very dangerous situation, since we're moving out of a La Niña (that is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (that is elevating the temperature), as also described in a recent post.

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent anomaly was 1.35 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on March 10, 2026 (black), the second lowest daily anomaly on record and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.37σ. The sea ice daily extent anomaly was only lower on March 10, 2025 (purple), when the deviation was -3.51σ, but the deviation was -1.26σ on May 1, 2025.

If the 2026 Arctic sea ice volume continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong, the danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026.

The danger is further illustrated by the image below that shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting).

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 12, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Proposed amendment to the Constitution

People who see huge environmental dangers have a duty to speak out and politicians have a duty to act. When dangers are confirmed by best-available science, politicians who still fail to act should be immediately replaced and institutionalized until rehabilitated.

Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Ocean heat in the Equatorial Pacific region

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• The 2026 El Nino
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-2026-el-nino.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Monday, February 23, 2026

The 2026 El Nino

Arctic sea ice extent

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.53 million km² on February 28, 2026, the second lowest on record for the time of year. This is a very dangerous situation, as we're moving out of a La Niña that is suppressing temperatures into an El Niño that is elevating temperatures.

The above image is adapted from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research and shows Arctic sea ice extent from the start of the year through early May.

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest on record for the time of year on February 27, 2026.

As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 1.36 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 27, 2026 (black), the second lowest anomaly on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.96σ.

Importantly, we're moving from a La Niña to an El Niño. The above images illustrate the impact of differences between El Niño and La Niña. The year 2016 was a strong El Niño year and Arctic sea ice extent started to decline strongly in the course of 2016 and extent remained low in 20017 and 2018. The El Niño that started to develop in 2023 contributed to the very low sea ice extent in early 2025, while sea ice extent was also lowest on record for the day during early parts of 2026. The blue line is the 2012 extent, which would turn into a record low later that year, a record that still stands today.

What happened in 2012? Let's first look into greenhouse gas concentrations, which are high in the Arctic and causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly.

[ CO₂ concentration on Feb 22, 2026 ]

As illustrated by the image below, methane concentrations were as high as 2498 ppb on February 19, 2026. Methane tends to be higher closer to the North Pole, while methane is particularly high at this altitude, unlike CO₂ that has its highest concentrations close to the surface.

As illustrated by the image on the right, surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) was as high as 526 ppm on February 22, 2026. The image also shows that CO₂ concentrations are high across the Arctic.

High Arctic concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly, contributing to decline in Arctic ice and snow cover, which causes loss of surface albedo (reflectivity).

Albedo loss is a self-amplifying feedback loop that further speeds up the temperature rise in the Arctic.

The strong rise of Arctic temperatures narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, which slows down the speed at which hot air flows from the Equator to the Arctic. This slowdown can hugely distort the Jet Stream and can also contribute to a slowdown of ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which - together with ocean stratification - can contribute to more ocean heat accumulating at the surface and to less lower clouds (albedo loss).

[ Storm over Arctic Ocean, August 2012 ]

Distortion of the Jet Stream in turn results in more extreme weather such as heatwaves, storms and fires. Fires produce soot that can settle down on the snow and ice cover and darken the surface (albedo loss). Storms can bring huge amounts of warm air into the Arctic. Furthermore, storms can churn sea ice into smaller pieces.

Early August 2012, a storm hit the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. Smaller pieces of ice melt more rapidly, since more parts become exposed to ocean heat, in contrast to a large flat and solid layer of ice that is also less susceptible to wind.

Pieces of ice that are lighter and smaller will more easily stand out above the water and capture the wind like the sails of yachts. Storms can push these smaller pieces more easily together, decreasing sea ice extent (albedo loss).

Storms can also temporarily speed up currents that are moving pieces of sea ice, with the potential to move pieces all the way out of the Arctic Ocean, where they will melt away rapidly.

Furthermore, storms can cause deeper vertical mixing of the sea water column, causing more heat to penetrate the seabed and resulting in destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments and eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas held underneath the hydrates.

In conclusion, a huge retreat in Arctic sea ice extent could occur in 2026, as Jet Stream distortion is getting ever stronger due to the ongoing temperature rise and this can cause storms over the Arctic Ocean to devastate sea ice extent. A Blue Ocean Event could therefore happen in the course of 2026.

The 2026 El Niño

During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. During El Niño, ocean heat comes to the sea surface and air temperatures are elevated.

The image below shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.

[ the image is discussed at Arcticnews on facebook ]

[ El Niño outlook ]

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026.

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).

[ image from earlier post ]

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]

The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).

[ image from earlier post ]

Nick Breeze talks with Jennifer Francis about the upcoming El Niño in the video below, also discussed on facebook.

Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear

Ocean heat is another contributor to Arctic sea ice loss and ocean heat keeps melting sea ice all year long from below.

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 28, 2026.

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous

The combination image below shows images adapted from Copernicus. The image on the left shows temperature anomalies at the bottom end of the scale over parts of North America and Russia on February 27, 2026, while temperature anomalies are at the top end of the scale over much of the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows absolute temperatures on February 27, 2025.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for February 27, 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (28°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean. The image also illustrates to what extent cold air has descended from the Arctic over Russia and North America, with more background as to why this is happening discussed in a recent post.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

The danger is that a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, kicking in with increasing ferocity, as follows:

• a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, including:
• a Blue Ocean Event (minimal Arctic sea ice), resulting in huge loss of albedo,
• with crossing of the latent heat tipping point (loss of ice buffer), resulting in
• seafloor CH₄ hydrates destabilization and eruption of vast amounts of CH₄, and
• submarine and terrestrial permafrost thawing, resulting in even more emissions,
• and further Jet Stream distortion, causing even more extreme weather events,
• resulting in forest fires, initially in Siberia, Alaska and Canada, and also in
• droughts and fires in global peatlands and in tropical rainforests, causing
• rapid melting and thaw of mountaintop snow and ice, initially causing flooding,
• followed by droughts, fires, water shortages, famine, heatwaves, starvation,
• resulting in massive biodiversity loss, while infrastructure collapses, and
• the Greenland Ice Sheet and parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, causing
• massive flooding of coastal areas, next to a huge rise in temperature,
• while more water vapor in the air causes the temperature rise to speed up further.

[ image from earlier post, also discussed on facebook ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Blue Ocean Event

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Sea ice loss increases methane danger

Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 16, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

Massive loss of albedo (reflectivity) amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

Less Antarctic sea ice contributes strongly to lower albedo, due to the size of Antarctic sea ice and its proximity to the Equator.

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows that the 36-month running average for the Earth's albedo has meanwhile hit yet another new record low, at 28.689%.

Additional elevation of the global temperature can be expected due to an emerging El Niño.

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice

Sea ice is low at both poles. This results in loss of global albedo, which elevates temperatures. El Niño can be expected to further elevate temperatures in the course of 2026.

Adding to the problems, Arctic sea ice has become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 15, 2026.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Carbon dioxide concentrations typically reach an annual maximum in May. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentrations (surface flasks) as high as 437 ppm recorded half 2025 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Currently, concentrations of greenhouse gases at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. The image below is adapted from an image issued by NOAA January 8, 2026, and shows recent monthly carbon dioxide concentrations as high as 442 ppm.

The image below shows daily measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations from 2020

The above image and the images below are adapted from images issued by NOAA January 6, 2026.

These images show concentrations of greenhouse gases recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The image below shows hourly average methane measurements from 2020.

The image below shows monthly average methane measurements from 2001.

The image below shows monthly average nitrous oxide measurements from 2016.

Temperatures

The image below with NASA Land-Only annual anomalies with respect to 1880-1912 shows that 1.5°C was crossed for all years from 2015 through 2025 (black squares). Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed after 2022 (in 2023, 2024 and 2025) and that 3°C may get crossed soon, as early as in 2031 if this trend continues (dashed extension). Note that the 1880-1912 base is not pre-industrial. Temperature anomalies can be even higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used.

The above image also illustrates how much difference it can make for temperature anomalies on land to go from a La Niña to an El Niño. The year 2022 was a La Niña year and the temperature anomaly on land was less than 1.8°C vs 1880-1912. El Niño conditions prevailed from March 2023 to March 2024, and the temperature anomaly in 2024 was about 0.6°C higher than it was in 2022. This makes one wonder by how much the temperature anomaly will go up compared to 2025, if El Niño conditions will emerge in 2026 and persist into 2027.

The image below illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies more than 1.5°C above 1951-1980 and much more when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating temperatures in 2025.

The above image illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies higher than 1.5°C above 1951-1980. Note that temperature anomalies will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating the temperature in 2025.

As illustrated by the image on the right, the highest temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 occurred over the Arctic Ocean.

This is further illustrated by the image below that shows the NASA 2025 temperature anomaly.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for September 2026.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for October 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over much of the Arctic Ocean.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed the danger of rising temperatures.

The heat in the Arctic also manifested itself in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event recently, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image illustrates how heat rising high up in the atmosphere resulted in temperatures as high as -23°C (-9.5°F) at 10 hPa over Russia at the green circle (globe on the left) on January 10, 2026.
At the same time, this resulted in very low temperatures at surface level. Temperatures of -41°C (41.9°F) were recorded at the green circle (globe on the right).

The image on the right illustrates that low surface (2 meter) temperatures can be expected to persist in January 2026. The image shows a forecast for January 29, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start