Showing posts with label pre-industrial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pre-industrial. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Will we be alive in 2025, who will survive, 2025?


The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine pre-industrial base.

The image below featured in an earlier post and was created with an image from the NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are here.


The image below from Copernicus illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.


The image below, from an earlier post and created with an image from the NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing).


Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots expected to occur in July 2025.

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.


The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.


While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, as the above image shows. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C.

This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.

Natural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial.

Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.


Such feedbacks include loss of sea ice and permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases. Temperature anomalies are high and Arctic sea ice volume is very low, as illustrated by the compilation of images below, adapted from nullschool, Climate Reanalyzer and the Danish Meteorological Institute.  


Ominously, high methane concentrations (well over 2400 ppb) were recently recorded at the observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. 


Slowing down of ocean currents could cause less heat to move deep into the ocean and more heat to instead accumulate at the surface, while more water vapor would enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data.
[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]
The compilation image below, with forecasts for September 20, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and biomass-burning aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon. Formaldehyde and carbon monoxide cause hydroxyl depletion and thus extend methane's lifetime. 


Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces.

Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this earlier post. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NASA - Gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023? 

• Water Vapor Feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202408/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña 

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe 



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Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Very high temperatures in Tropics

Temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) have been very high in 2024 (see black line, image below), much higher than they were at this time of year in 2023 (orange line). 


The above image shows that on May 24, 2024, the temperature was 26.7°C (or 80.06°F), an anomaly of 1°C (or 1.8°F) compared to 1979-2000. 

The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) compared to 1951-1980.  


Note that the above-mentioned anomalies are compared to 1979-2000 and 1951-1980, neither of which is pre-industrial. The anomalies would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. 

The maps below are adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and show maximum temperatures for three days. The image directly below shows maximum temperatures on May 29, 2024. Extremely high temperatures were recorded in India and Pakistan.


The image below has a focus on Asia, showing the extremely high temperatures recorded in India and Pakistan on May 30, 2024. 


The image below shows maximum temperatures around the world on May 31, 2024. 


Surface precipitable water

Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023. Worryingly, data for the first four months of 2024 are a lot higher than they were in 2023 at the same time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. This raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html


• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Friday, May 17, 2024

Temperatures in the Tropics

The image below shows that temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) were very high during the second half of April 2024, and these very high temperatures were sustained during the first part of May 2024. The temperature was 26.9°C (or 80.42°F) on May 11, 2024, an anomaly of 1.1°C (or 1.98°F) from 1979-2000. 


The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.  


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows maximum temperatures on May 28, 2024.


Calculating the temperature rise

Note that the anomalies for the top image are calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies for the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.

Also have a look at the analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Furthermore, a recent analysis shows that land temperatures 30°N- 90°N in summer 2023 were 2.07°C warmer than 1850-1900, while a subsequent longer-range analysis shows that the mean temperature in the period 1850 to 1900 was actually 0.24°C lower than had been presumed on the basis of the data collected at the time by meteorological stations.

A larger temperature rise comes with stronger feedbacks, e.g. the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C above pre-industrial, corresponding with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the air. This is just one out of numerous feedbacks, while there are also developments such as reductions of sulfur emissions that can push up the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

A larger temperature rise comes with increasingly extreme weather events that cause widespread damage and threaten to cause even more loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failures and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.

Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post.

The IPCC keeps downplaying how dire the situation is we're in

Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps giving the impression that the temperature rise is small, e.g. by using the period 1850-1900 as "reference", despite mounting evidence that the temperature rise is much larger, especially when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. The IPCC also keeps giving the impression that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, a carbon budget large enough for polluters to keep polluting for decades to come, whereas there is just a huge carbon debt for which there is no short-term remedy.

A recent analysis concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.

The joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only cover part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon).

The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth. Miesner et al. warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.

The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161250170389679

• 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years - by Jan Esper et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-y
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161422819504679

• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling - by Justine Ramage et al.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007953
discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161358846384679

• Subsea permafrost organic carbon stocks are large and of dominantly low reactivity - by Frederieke Miesner et al. (2023)
discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161358846384679

• Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon - by Yuanyuan Huang et al. (2024)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi7918
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161354439024679

• IPCC AR6 WG1 FAQ 5.2 | Can Thawing Permafrost Substantially Increase Global Warming?
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_05.pdf

Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Change

• Just do NOT tell them the monster exists

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Temperature rise in the Tropics (update 5)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 24, 2024 of 27°C (or 80.6°F). 


The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024, when the anomaly reached a record high of 1.448°C (or 2.606°F).  


Note that the anomaly in the top image is calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.

The high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at: 
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Monday, April 29, 2024

Temperature rise in the Tropics (update 4)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 23, 2024 of 26.925°C (or 80.47°F). 


The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024, when the anomaly reached a record high of 1.448°C (or 2.606°F).  


Note that anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be much higher.

The high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Friday, April 26, 2024

Temperature rise in the Tropics (update 3)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 20, 2024 of 26.913°C (or 80.44°F). 


The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024, when the anomaly reached a record high of 1.448°C (or 2.606°F).  


Note that anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be much higher.

The rise in temperature threatens to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts about the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Monday, March 18, 2024

Tragedy set to unfold in Tropics (update)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on March 13, 2024. The image below shows the situation over the years through March 13, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.9°C and 1.4°C above 1979-2000 (black line is 2024).


The previous record high temperature was reached on April 24, 2016, when it was 26.8°C, and 1°C above 1979-2000 (grey line is 2016). 

The annual maximum temperature in the Tropics is typically reached in April, but very high temperatures were also reached in early May 2023 (orange line is 2023), so the temperature this year may well rise even higher over the next two months.

Meanwhile, we're still in El Niño, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image below shows the monthly temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024. 


Note that the anomalies in the two above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher.

These high temperatures threaten to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Earlier versions of this post are discussed at facebook at:
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Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Tragedy set to unfold in tropics

The temperature is rising rapidly in the tropics. The image below shows the situation in the tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) through February 14, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.3°C, i.e. 1.3°C above 1979-2000.


On April 24, 2016, it was 26.8°C, the highest temperature on record in the tropics, 1°C above 1979-2000, as the above image also shows. The image below shows temperature anomalies over the years. 

Note that the above anomalies are calculated from 1979-2000, which isn't pre-industrial. When calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher. Also have a look at the recent analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below. 


According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance that the current El Niño will persist through February-March-April 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 


The danger is that a tragedy will unfold over the next few months as temperatures look set to exceed the 2016 peak in the tropics and cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer 
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)  

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tragedy set to unfold in tropics is discussed at facebook:





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Friday, November 17, 2023

Arctic Ocean Heatstroke

[ discussed at facebook ]
The above image illustrates how much hotter October 2023 was in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to October in other years. The temperature in October 2023 was more than 2°C above October in 1880-1920, in the Northern Hemisphere, even with 3 years smoothing. Note that 1880-1920 is not pre-industrial, when using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial, the anomaly would be even higher.


The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, and the image below, adapted from NASA, both use the same 1951-1980 baseline to illustrate the October 2023 temperature anomaly.


Anomalies are very high, especially over the Arctic Ocean, which reflects the enormous amounts of heat that are transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.

There are further reasons behind the very high anomalies over the Arctic, one of which is methane, which has risen very fast over the years.

The image on the right illustrates methane's historic rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane (CH₄) reached 1923 parts per billion (ppb) in 2022, 264% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 417.9 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, 150% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 335.8 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level.

This image below shows some very high hourly average methane levels recently recorded at Barrow, Alaska.


The image below shows high monthly methane levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. 


The image below, created with a Copernicus forecast for November 15, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels over the Arctic at 500 hPa.



The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean, especially north of Alaska, on November 15, 2023 AM at 399.1 mb.

The image below shows methane levels as high as 2700 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 17, 2023 PM at 293 mb.


The image below shows high methane levels over Greenland recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 18, 2023 PM at 399 mb.


The image below shows mean methane levels of 1942 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 19, 2023 PM at 399 mb.


The Argo Float 6904087 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The Argo Float 6901934 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Arctic Ocean surface temperatures are strongly influenced by air temperatures and seasons, ranging from more than 10°C to as low as -1.8°C when there is sea ice.

[ from earlier post ]
By contrast, the water temperature below the surface can remain stable throughout the year at close to 0°C all the way down to 2000 meters without freezing, due to higher salinity. However, the water temperature can be well above 0°C throughout the year at a depth of a few hundred meters, which is worrying since much of the water is less than 200 m deep where the continental shelves extend into the Arctic Ocean (light blue map on the right) and methane hydrates at the seafloor there could instantly be destabilized by a sudden influx of warm water from the North Atlantic. 

Over the next few months, as sea ice keeps growing in extent, this seals off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere. This makes it harder for heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere and increases the danger that more heat will reach sediments located at the seafloor and cause methane to be released from hydrates as well as methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.

The danger is illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, which shows a rise in temperature (2 m) by 2100 compared to 1852-1900 using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. 


[ image from the Extinction page ]
Note that none of the bases used in the above images is pre-industrial, neither 1880-1920, nor 1951-1980, nor 1852-1900. Using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial base would result in even higher anomalies. The image on the right shows a 2.29°C 2020 anomaly from 3480 BC.  

Note also that even a small temperature rise (of less than 1°C) can destabilize a vulnerable methane hydrate, which can cause an eruption that in turn can destabilize neighbouring hydrates, resulting in a self-reinforcing feedback loop of methane releases, including methane in the form of free gas from underneath the hydrates. This can drive up temperatures very rapidly. 

Seafloor methane is only one out of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C within a few years, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Conclusion

The precautionary principle calls for comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps

• NASA Temperature anomaly October 2023

• WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 19 – 15 November 2023

• Copernicus - Methane forecasts





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