On March 15, 2024, the daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 427.93 parts per million (ppm), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.
This is the highest daily in situ average in the NOAA record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ for the last 31 days at Mauna Loa.
The image below, adapted from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, shows that CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.80 ppm on March 14, 2024. The background shows six months of CO₂ ending March 15, 2024.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 425.78 ppm recently, a growth of 5.7 ppm compared to one year ago.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.
Clouds Tipping Point
The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) can better capture the acceleration in the rise in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere than a linear trend (blue).
The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the
clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed before 2100, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).
Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane was about 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.
A methane concentration of 1960 ppb corresponds, at a
Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 392 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 427.93 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 819.93 ppm, i.e. only 380.07 ppm away from the
clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.
This 380.07 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as
this one.
Furthermore, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the temperatures rise, as discussed at the
Extinction page, which shows that, altogether, there is the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C by 2026.
A 2018 study (by
Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an
earlier post.
Environmental crimes
The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action.
Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!
If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Meanwhile,
Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the
EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction.
Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in
this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at
this group.
Links
• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa
• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime
https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/8012665172096853• ‘Revolutionary’: EU Parliament votes to criminalise most serious cases of ecosystem destruction
• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html
• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html