Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Emissions are not falling

Temperature rise

For many years, alarms have been raised about the temperature rise. Forest fires and methane releases in the Arctic contribute strongly to the temperature rise and to the danger of the clouds tipping point getting crossed, as discussed in an earlier post. 

On July 20, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.07°C, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.88°C higher than 1982-2010, as illustrated by the image below by ClimateReanalyzer, based on NOAA OISST V2.1 data. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026.


High sea surface temperatures are a major cause of sea ice decline. The sea surface temperature anomaly forecast below is for January 2027, a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

[ image from earlier post ]
Clearly, politicians must take drastic action that includes action to increase resilience and action to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Sadly, it appears that politicians are not taking the necessary action and that - as a result - emissions are rising.

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]
Greenhouse gases rising

Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising since 1750, as illustrated by the image on the right. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have been rising rapidly, while methane has been rising even more rapidly. 

More methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

The 2026 El Niño is strengthening and sea surface temperatures are already at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing massive eruptions of methane contained in those sediments in the form of methane hydrates and free gas held underneath these hydrates. 

Concentrations of gases

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. While concentrations should be coming down at this time of year due to seasonal changes, recent concentrations are very high, with one recent flask reading exceeding 442 parts per million.


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There is a huge spread in recent readings, which may reflect forest fires. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average methane concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average nitrous oxide concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


Sadly, the images indicate that concentrations of greenhouse gases are not falling, they are rising instead. Forest fires are striking across the globe, which contributes to forests turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources. Furthermore, forest fires come with huge releases of carbon monoxide that deplete hydroxyl, in turn extending the lifetime of methane, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Fossil fuel subsidies and investments 

Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are planning to extract more natural gas. The IEA estimates that around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal in 2026. Natural gas investment is projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade.


The IMF describes two different types of fossil fuel subsidies. Explicit subsidies (when the retail price is below a fuel’s supply cost) and implicit subsidies (when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax). External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily premature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion, accident, and road damage externalities associated with the use of road fuels.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• The 2026 El Niño
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IMF - Fossil Fuel Subsidies (update April 22, 2026)
https://www.imf.org/en/topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

• IEA - World Energy Investment report 2026 
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026

The 2026 El Niño

Double Blue Ocean 2026/2027?

The 2026 El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later, as also discussed in an earlier post.

On July 9, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a statement that El Niño is present and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. Forecasts indicate that the 2026 El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time. 


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 16, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of many members and also for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 16, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 5°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4.5°C for part of the mean. 


The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America). The images show that a rise of close to 5°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +3.486°C in the bottom image) occurred in less than seven months through July 18, 2026.


The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).


According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance of El Niño from June-August 2026 to Jan-March 2027. There is a 99% chance of El Niño in Jan-March 2027 and there is a 97% chance of El Niño in February–April 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is an 81% chance that El Niño in October-December 2026 will be very strong (greater than or equal to 2°C).


The image below shows an ECMWF forecast from July 1, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows ECMWF forecasts from July 1, 2026, for each of the four Niño regions.


On July 16, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region was 29.43°C, the highest on record for the time of year and 2.32°C above 1982-2010. 


The world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (SST) was 21.06°C on July 17, 2026, a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below by ClimateReanalyzer, based on NOAA OISST V2.1 data. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026. 


The Copernicus image below uses ERA5 data. On July 20, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N) sea surface temperature was 21°C, an anomaly of 0.61°C above 1991-2020, and a record high for the time of year. The globe shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026.


That's a large difference in SST anomalies! According to ClimateReanalyzer, the SST anomaly was 0.71°C from 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026, whereas according to Copernicus the SST anomaly was 0.61°C from 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026. Temperature anomalies are essential in the Paris Agreement and it's important how anomalies are calculated. 

La Niña conditions were dominant in March 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is still strengthening, which spells bad news for Arctic sea ice. 

The forecast below of January 2027 sea surface temperature anomalies should act as a warning of El Niño's strength at a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.


Are emissions falling?

With warning signs this large, one would expect politicians to be taking drastic action including action to increase resilience and to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Are emissions falling, or are they rising? 


[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]
The top part of the above image shows that, according to The Keeling Curve, the concentration of carbon dioxide was 430.07 parts per million on July 3, 2026, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The background image shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide has been rising for thousands of years, due to deforestation, burning of fuel, animal herding and agriculture by people.  

The bottom part of the above mage shows that the temperature has been rising for more than 1500 years, while an added trend shows the potential for a 3°C rise this year, as discussed at the Extinction page. 

Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are rising fast, while methane is rising even faster (see image on the right) and more methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

The image below shows that a methane peak of 2686 parts per billion was recorded by the NOAA20 satellite at 399.1 mb on July 7, 2026 AM.  


The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent flask reading exceeds 442 parts per million. 


The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high. 


The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows methane concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent daily reading exceeds 2000 parts per billion. 


The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows nitrous oxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.


The image below, from an earlier post, shows the globally averaged marine surface mean nitrous oxide concentration through 2025 with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2047.


The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.


The image below, from an earlier post, shows global annual mean SF₆ through 2025, with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2037.


Temperature

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.39°C on July 14, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.31°C higher than 1979-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 14, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted. 


The image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was 4.96°C on July 4, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.33°C higher than 1991-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 4, 2026., with the Arctic highlighted. 


As the 2026 El Niño gains in strength, temperatures can be expected to rise further, which spells bad news for sea ice and for temperatures on land. 

The image below was created with a NASA image (250 km smoothing radius) and shows that the temperature in some areas on land in June 2026 was 4°C to 9.8°C higher than in 1951-1980.


Looking more closely at the temperature rise on land is important, since most people do live on land. The image below shows NASA Land Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through June 2026. 


The above image shows that 1.5°C was reached or crossed on land for each month since 2021 (black squares). The image shows a Lowess 4-year smoothing trend (red line) that indicates that 2°C was crossed on land during 2021 and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, possibly in 2031, if this trend continues (dashed red extension), or as early as in 2026 due to the current El Niño, which - as said at the start of this post - may trigger numerous feedbacks to start kicking in with accelerating ferocity.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• NOAA - Office of Satellite and Products Operations - NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• The Keeling Curve
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NASA - gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Extinction









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Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Water Vapor Worries

The Ozone Layer

[CC image, credit: nptel.ac.in ]
The Atmosphere can be divided into layers. The Troposphere is the layer that is closest to the surface. When rising up in the Atmosphere, the next layer up is the Stratosphere. The next layer up is the Mesosphere and the fourth layer from the bottom is the Thermosphere.

The temperature rises or falls in a different way in each of these layers, as illustrated by the red line in the image CC from archive.nptel.ac.in on the right and the scale on the bottom.

The ozone layer is located in the lower stratosphere at an altitude of 15 to 35 km or 9 to 22 miles above the Earth's surface, with the highest concentrations usually peaking around 25 km. This altitude corresponds with a pressure level of 100 to 10 mb or hPa.

The ozone layer absorbs 97% to 99% of the Sun's medium-frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which otherwise could cause severe damage to life on Earth.

Water vapor rising over Antarctica

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for July 3, 2026. At this time of year very little sunlight is reaching Antarctica, so the temperature over Antarctica can get very low. At the same time, global warming has increased sea surface temperatures and this also keeps air temperatures over water relatively warm. The difference in temperature strengthens wind patterns from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica, which can lead to atmospheric rivers moving toward Antarctica, carrying water vapor and heat from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica.


The red color on the above image indicates high temperature anomalies over Antarctica. The dark blue areas indicate where snow has fallen over the sea ice around Antarctica and over the interior of Antarctica. 


As temperatures rise, the water vapor in the air increases. The amount of water vapor that the air can hold rises by 7% for each 1°C temperature rise (Clausius-Clapeyron relation). While much of the water vapor will fall out of the air as precipitation, in the form of rain or snow, some of the water vapor will remain in the air. This extra water vapor increases temperatures, since water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. The IPCC adds: Water vapor feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapor. Furthermore, water vapor feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapor feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapor concentration were held fixed.

Part of the precipitation will fall over Antarctica in the form of snow, thickening the snow cover there, without returning to the surface of the Southern Ocean. The net result is that the salinity of the Southern Ocean surface increases, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice, further speeding up the temperature rise, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

The threat is further illustrated by the image below, which shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies on June 30, 2026. 


In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed warming of Antarctica. 


Damage to the Ozone Layer

Furthermore, part of the extra water vapor can rise up and moisten the atmosphere up to and above the ozone layer. The combination image below shows relative humidity on June 30, 2026 at 01:00 UTC, with relative humidity reaching up to 100% at surface level (left), up to 100% at 70 mb or hPa (center), and up to 23% at 10 mb or hPa (right).


[ from earlier post ]
Increases in stratospheric water vapor are bad news, as they not only speed up global warming but also lead to loss of stratospheric ozone, as Drew Shindell pointed out back in 2001.

It has long been known that deterioration of the ozone shield increases ultraviolet-B irradiation, in turn causing skin cancer.

Research (box right) suggests that, millions of years ago, it could also have led to loss of fertility and consequent extinction in plants and animals.

Water vapor reaching stratospheric altitudes causes ozone depletion, as James Anderson describes in a 2017 paper and discusses in the short 2016 video below.

[ from earlier post ]

A recent study led by Yifeng Peng finds that moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires since 2005 have systematically increased stratospheric water vapor. Both contribute through aerosol-induced tropopause warming; extreme wildfires also reveal an additional self-lofting pathway that transports water vapor into the stratosphere. 

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6. 


The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Moistening Atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html

• Care for the Ozone Layer
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/care-for-the-ozone-layer.html

• Science Snippets: The Catastrophic Warming of Antarctica - video by Guy McPherson

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere - by Yifeng Peng et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10731-0




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Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Clouds Tipping Point - update 1

A 5 Gt burst of seafloor methane would nearly double the methane in the atmosphere and could instantly raise CO₂e level to well above 1200 ppm, thus triggering the cloud feedback. 

The image below is an update of an earlier analysis that refers to data dating back a few years. Meanwhile, concentrations of greenhouse gases have kept rising and radiative forcing estimates for 2025 have been released. 


The above image looks into a scenario in which methane concentrations nearly double, due to 5 Gt of methane getting released, instantly increasing CO₂e levels to above 1200 ppm and thus triggering the cloud feedback, as described in the image and as illustrated by the bar on the right in the above image.

Importantly, the clouds tipping point could also be crossed with far less methane getting released. As illustrated by the bar on the left in the above image, levels of further pollutants could increase rapidly while feedbacks strengthen and while sulfate cooling ends abruptly, causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed and resulting in a potential rise of 18.44°C (from pre-industrial) by the end of 2026, as also discussed at the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links 

• Clouds Tipping Point 

• Carbon dioxide highest in millions of years - update 2

• Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - by Piers Forster et al. (2026)
https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-287/essd-2026-287.pdf

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
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