Arctic News

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on September 29, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 0.75°C higher than 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record again, following the 0.75°C anomaly on September 27, 2026.

On September 19, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface reached a record high temperature of 21.18°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.02°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The above image shows sea surface temperatures through September 28, 2026, when the sea surface temperature was a bit lower than that earlier peak, but the anomaly was equally high, i.e. the sea surface temperature was 1.02°C higher than 1982-2010 again. The map on the right shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on September 28, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a record high sea surface temperature of 29.98°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 1, 2026, an anomaly of +3.43°C from 1982-2010, the highest anomaly on record, and 4.23°C higher than the 25.75°C reached on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 1, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted.

The Niño 3.4 region is regarded as most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of more than 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.74°C in the bottom image) occurred in the year until now.

The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below, adapted from NOAA and from an earlier post, illustrates that peak strength of the El Niño is forecast to occur from October to December 2026, so the Antarctic sea ice minimum may occur late 2026, well before February when it typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted.

The temperature difference between the Tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.

These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other. Sea level rise is accelerating, since sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from glaciers (41%. IPCC AR6 data). The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and the Thwaites glacier also acts as a physical buffer or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Further sea level rise results in more ocean heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise.

Furthermore, sea ice loss contributes to destabilization of land ice, by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post.

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effect of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming describes how seemingly unrelated events can combine and make things progressively worse, with one danger feeding into and reinforcing the next one, causing collapse of many buildings, of infrastructure, of industrial activity and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally.

How could the Biochar Economy be established? A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to vegetation planting such as perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand.

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

On October 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.77 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.47σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as the end of 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

[ from the Extinction page ]

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• The Biochar Economy

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

The finger on the image below points at an area over Antarctica where a temperature anomaly of about +30°C was recorded on September 13, 2026.

The mechanism causing this very high temperature anomaly on Antarctica is an atmospheric river carrying warm, moist air from the Tropics to Antarctica, on the way taking up water vapor evaporating from the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Atmospheric rivers ]

Huge pressure differences facilitate such atmospheric rivers. The image on the right shows moisture flowing from high pressure areas near the Equator to low pressure areas over and around Antarctica. There are a number of causes behind these conditions, as described below.

High air temperatures

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 16, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.28°C or 79.3°F, an anomaly of 1.24°C or 2.23°F versus 1979-2000. The map (inset top right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the Tropics highlighted.

High sea surface temperatures

On the image below, there is barely any cold area left in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are now starting to rise strongly in the Southern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. Global warming is making things worse and the 2026 El Niño is making things even worse, with extra heat rising up into the atmosphere from oceans. Furthermore, as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down, Antarctic temperatures can be expected to increase, finds a recent study led by Da Nian.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as much as 8.8°C or 15.8°F higher than 1981-2011 south of Africa (at the green circle) on September 22, 2026.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 25, 2026, when the temperature was 29.82°C or 85.68°F, an anomaly of 3.16°C or 5.69°F versus 1982-2010, and 4.07°C higher than the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 25, 2026, around the globe with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is indicative for the development of El Niño.

The image below shows that a record high temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was reached on September 25, 2026, on a tier with November 17, 2015, when there was a strong El Niño. Note that the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026 and the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that on September 26, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 21.03°C or 69.85°F, an anomaly of 0.731°C or 1.316°F versus 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record, a bit (0.006°C) higher than the 0.725°C reached on January 10, 2024.

[ -70°C near South Pole ]

The map (inset top right) on the above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on September 26, 2026, with high anomalies showing up across the globe.

Very cold in parts of Antarctica

In winter, temperatures are low in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and parts of Antarctica, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the Antarctica page.

The temperature difference between areas at the Equator and parts of Antarctica can therefore be huge, deforming and increasing in strength the Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere, enabling the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica at great strength.

[ precipitable water standardized anomaly ]

The above image illustrates large temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole causing the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica. At the green circle, wind at 250 hPa is as fast as 259 km/h and Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 79 kW/m² on September 13, 2026.

More water vapor in the air

Water vapor in the air is increasing. High (and rising) temperatures result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Global atmospheric water vapor was at a record high of 27.35 kg/m² in August 2026, says Roberta Boscolo. The image on the right shows warm, moist air being carried in the form of an atmospheric river toward and over Antarctica on September 13, 2026.

Snowfall over Antarctica

The image below, from the Antarctica page, shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 16.9 kg/m² on August 25, 2026.

The amount of snow falling on Antarctica can be substantial. The image on the right shows August 2026 total precipitation, with some coastal regions of Antarctica receiving relatively high amounts of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, due to low temperatures, and thickening the snow layer. Most of the snowfall on Antarctica originates from evaporation from the Southern Ocean, making the surface of the Southern Ocean more saline.

The image below shows that on September 12, 2026, a surface temperature of -0.3°C or 31.4°F was recorded near the coast of Antarctica (left), while a temperature of 5.2°C or 41.4°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa.

[ Relative humidity in the stratosphere ]

The image on the right shows an area in the stratosphere (at 70 hPa or at about 17.5 km altitude) with a relative humidity of 100% (at the green circle) giving an idea of the strength at which water vapor is getting pushed into the air over Antarctica.

At a relative humidity of 100%, water vapor turns into solid ice crystals, since the temperature of the moist air in the stratosphere is very low (-91.0°C or -131.8°F at the green circle).

Higher salinity in Southern Ocean

Water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and much of the resulting precipitation returns to the Southern Ocean, but some precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer.

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Loss of Antarctic sea ice

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness by the University of Bremen (left) and concentration by NSIDC (right) on September 13, 2026. The orange line on the image on right shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen on September 25, 2026 (left) and by Climate Reanalyzer on September 26, 2026 (right).

The Equinox occurred on September 23, 2026, when the Sun was directly above the Equator and both hemispheres received an equal amount of sunlight, as illustrated by the combination image below.

After the Equinox, the Southern Hemisphere started to receive more sunlight than the Northern Hemisphere. The size of Antarctic sea ice is crucially important, as it determines how much sunlight will be reflected back into space. On September 23, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.802 million km², while Antarctic sea ice extent was 17.306 million km². Furthermore, the Antarctic sea ice is also located much closer to the Equator, thus further causing it to receive more sunlight and reflect more sunlight back into space when it's there.

The image below shows that on September 28, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.59 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.84σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Antarctic sea ice has decreased in extent since September 15, 2026, and extent was 17.058 million km² on September 28, 2026, the second lowest on record after 2023, as illustrated by the image below.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record. Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be horrendous, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Ozone layer

An additional danger is water vapor reaching the stratosphere, with destructive impact on the ozone layer. Monthly total column water vapor was at a record high in August 2026. As temperatures keep rising, this danger becomes more and more manifest. Atmospheric rivers carrying moisture to Antarctica are increasingly common events, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Copernicus found that the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole reached a significant size threshold slightly earlier than average, aligned with 2025. It has also stayed ahead of average, unlike the previous year, as illustrated by the image below.

CAMS chart of the ozone hole area on 12 September 2026. The red line shows the data for 2026 and the dotted line the forecast for the following 5 days. The thicker, darker blue line is the evolution of the ozone hole during 2025, and the lighter blue line represents 2024. The grey colours represent the percentile values and the median between 1979 – 2023.
Data source: CAMS/C3S Credit: CAMS/ECMWF

Conclusion

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Precipitation, relative humidity, soil moisture and river flow for August 2026 https://climate.copernicus.eu/precipitation-relative-humidity-soil-moisture-and-river-flow-august-2026

• Copernicus: Ozone hole reaches notable threshold early again as area increases above average in 2026
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-ozone-hole-reaches-notable-threshold-early-again-area-increases-above-average-2026
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164773077179679

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. (2026)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164124732849679

• Water Vapor Worries
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/water-vapor-worries.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026

Friday, September 11, 2026

El Nino may cause Arctic sea ice minimum to be late

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 10, 2026 (left), and the sea surface temperature anomaly on September 10, 2026 (right).

The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 9, 2026.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume on September 11, 2026.

The 2026 El Niño

El Niño is on track to gain strength in the course of 2026. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that peak strength can be expected to occur from October to December 2026, so the Arctic sea ice 2026 minimum may well come later than half September, when it typically occurs.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.

The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026/2027?

Currently, Arctic sea ice concentration, thickness and volume are low. Combined with record high sea surface temperatures and a record strong El Niño, this could cause an Arctic Blue Ocean Event to occur around half September 2026.

Even with Arctic sea ice extent reaching a maximum around half September, as it typically does at that time of year, regrowth of Arctic sea ice comes with the danger that of sea ice sealing off the Arctic Ocean, which will mean that less heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, so more heat will remain trapped in the water underneath the sea ice, and the danger is that this will destabilize sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of large amounts of methane.

As illustrated by the image below, a peak methane level of 2696 parts per billion was recorded at 399.1 mb by the NOAA 21 satellite on September 5, 2026 PM, raising concerns that this high level originated from methane erupting from the seafloor into the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Sea or the Beaufort Sea.

Furthermore, high levels of methane were recently detected in two surface flasks at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below.

Large amounts of methane could dramatically raise air temperatures in the Arctic, as discussed in a recent post.

As discussed, the impact of a Double Blue Ocean Event would be horrendous. The dire outlook for Antartci sea ice is also discussed at the Antarctica page.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

• Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths