Arctic News

Friday, September 11, 2026

El Nino may cause Arctic sea ice minimum to be late

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 10, 2026 (left), and the sea surface temperature anomaly on September 10, 2026 (right).

The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 9, 2026.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume on September 11, 2026.

The 2026 El Niño

El Niño is on track to gain strength in the course of 2026. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that peak strength can be expected to occur from October to December 2026, so the Arctic sea ice 2026 minimum may well come later than half September, when it typically occurs.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.

The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026/2027?

Currently, Arctic sea ice concentration, thickness and volume are low. Combined with record high sea surface temperatures and a record strong El Niño, this may well cause an Arctic Blue Ocean Event to occur soon, which would contribute to also threaten to cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in early 2027.

The impact of a Double Blue Ocean Event would be horrendous, as also discussed at the Antarctica page.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

• Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths

Friday, September 4, 2026

Water near North Pole

Water is visible near the North Pole, as illustrated by the satellite image below, dated September 4, 2026.

With much water being visible near the North Pole, Arctic sea ice volume is currently not the lowest for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Why isn't Arctic sea ice volume currently at a record low? There still is a lot of relatively thick sea ice present North of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 7, 2026.

Rising temperatures and distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events to become more extreme. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). As illustrated by the combination image below, this can cause more snow to fall over the Arctic Ocean, which can thicken the sea ice or contribute to more freshwater at the surface.

[ Forecasts for September 5, 2026. Click on images to enlarge ]

Stronger heatwaves and storms over land can also cause increasingly larger amounts of freshwater to get added to the surface of the Arctic Ocean in the form of water from rivers and from runoff from land, as illustrated by the image below. Less salty water can contribute to a temporary slowing down of Arctic sea ice melting, but given the speed at which the ocean heat keeps rising, such a slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and huge melting of sea ice threatens to return with a vengeance, i.e. abruptly, as sea surface temperatures keep rising in line with the 2026 El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures were at a record high in August 2026, as illustrated by the above image.

Temperatures of the sea surface are very high, as much as 13°C or 23.3°F higher than 1981-2011 on September 4, 2026, in the Gulf of Ob (green circle on the above image). The image also shows that the cold area that was previously visible south of Greenland got overwhelmed by the huge rise in ocean heat, as the 2026/2027 El Niño keeps gaining in strength and as Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

The absorbed incoming solar radiation (the black line in the above image, but orange in the image below) is increasing rapidly, due to albedo loss, while outgoing longwave radiation (the red line in the above image, but black in the image below) is decreasing proportionally, due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Further gases, aerosols and feedbacks can make things worse. The result is an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth, referred to as Earth's Energy Imbalance. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (red in the image below) and shows where the extra energy is going (in percentages).

According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.

More ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean subsequently threatens to cause abrupt destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.

Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006)

Warm water can cause melting of the ice that is held in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., featured in an earlier post. Hydrates can be present at the end of conduits leading to Pingos that were formed in the sediment where methane did escape from hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the ice in the Pingos and conduits, destabilizing hydrates and resulting in huge abrupt releases of methane from the hydrates, as well as from methane held in the form of free gas underneath such hydrates.

The huge amount of ocean heat present in the Pacific Ocean at the Equator is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, with subsurface temperature anomalies of +10.0°C at 100 m depth.

In the Atlantic Ocean, slowing down of AMOC can cause less warm water to flow at the sea surface of the North Atlantic into the Arctic ocean. However, the rising ocean heat is not disappearing, but more heat is instead accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean. The danger is that, as more heat rises to the surface, a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of the accumulated ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, a freshwater lid is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, facilitating warm, salty water to be carried underneath this freshwater lid into the Arctic Ocean.

The above combination image shows the situation on September 3, 2026, with Arctic sea ice concentration in the panel on the left, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the panel on the right, with a 0.6°C higher temperature than 1981-2011 highlighted at the green circle near the North Pole.

The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 7, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and on September 6, 2026, by NSIDC (right), with the orange line indicating the median ice edge 1981-2010.

The sea surface temperature anomaly (60°S-60°N) was +0.69°C compared to 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from Copernicus. The map (inset, top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026.

The August 2026 temperature anomaly above 1951-1980 was close to the peak reached in September 2023, as illustrated by the above image.

The sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N) was 21.23°C or 70.21°F on September 8, 2026, the highest temperature on record, and an anomaly of 1.01°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the image below.

There is much scope for the temperature to rise further, since El Niño is expected to reach its peak in December 2026. The image below shows global monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-1910 (not pre-industrial) through August 2026 with a polynomial trend added to warn about the potential that a 3°C rise may cause human extinction.

According to Copernicus, the August 2026 average surface air temperature was 16.96°C, the highest monthly surface air temperature on record and an anomaly of 1.65°C above 1850-1900.

The 2026 El Niño

The image below shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.

The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below shows the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

Teleconnections: High temperatures in Tropics contributing to Antarctic sea ice decline

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the Tropics through September 4, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.27°C or 79.29°F, an anomaly of 1.33°C or 2.39°F versus 1979-2000. The globe (inset bottom right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 4, 2026 with the Tropics highlighted.

Sea surface temperatures are high and this contributes to Antarctic sea ice decline. Additionally, there is another mechanism contributing to the decline of Antarctic sea ice. At this time of year, the temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and over East Antarctica, so temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole can be very large.

Large temperature differences can cause strong wind patterns driving warm, moist air in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica, on the way taking up more moisture evaporating from the Southern Ocean. This can cause snow to fall over parts of Antarctica, thickening the snow and ice cover on Antarctica, while increasing the salt content of the Southern Ocean surface. Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows the August 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 5, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right). Low concentration of the sea ice and of the snow and ice cover on land lowers albedo, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed by Antarctica and by the sea ice around Antarctica.

On September 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.27 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.39σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become even stronger. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February, but this time most sea ice may be gone earlier, as the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record, which could devastate the sea ice over the coming months.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/double-blue-ocean-event.html

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/08/antarctic-sea-ice-increasingly-in-danger.html

• A Tale of Two Poles
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/a-tale-of-two-poles.html

• Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Record high sea surface temperature causing global devastation

The global surface air temperature was 16.96°C or 62.53°F on August 26, 2026, 1°C or 1.8°F higher than 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record for the time of year. The map (top right) shows the August 26, 2026, global surface air temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020.

The sea surface temperature was 21.11°C or 70°F on August 24, 2026, the highest temperature on record and 0.68°C or 1.224°F higher than 1991-2020, as illustrated by the image below. The map (top right) shows the August 24, 2026, sea surface temperature versus 1991-2020.

The record high sea surface temperature is having a devastating impact, with extreme weather events occurring around the world. The outlook is that things will get even worse, since the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record.

On August 26, 2026, the global sea ice area was 15.70 million km², the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.84σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple.

Arctic

The image below, from NASA Worldview, shows that water is visible less than 60 km or 37.28 miles from the North Pole on August 29, 2026.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. Water is visible near the North Pole on the August 31, 2026, image below (Arctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen, the panel on the left), while the panel on the right shows Arctic sea ice concentration by NSDIC. The orange line shows the median ice edge 1981-2010 for this day.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 1, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and Climate Reanalyzer (right).

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 2, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and Climate Reanalyzer (right).

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean on August 27, 2026.

The image below shows a surface temperature of 5.1°C or 41.2°F on Greenland on August 28, 2026 (circle).

The image below shows a forecast for December 2026 of the temperature anomaly under a CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Under this scenario, radiative forcing is projected to reach 8.5 W/m² by 2100, which would come with temperature anomalies as illustrated by the image below.

Antarctic

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 31, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right). The orange line shows the median ice edge 1981-2010 for this day.

On August 26, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 12.71 million km², the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.80σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

As El Niño increases in strength, global sea ice area looks set to get lower and lower in the course of 2026, while feedbacks, including albedo loss, loss of lower clouds and increases in water vapor, kick in with greater ferocity, further contributing to acceleration of the temperature rise.

The image below shows a sea surface temperature forecast for January 2027, indicating that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss.

The danger is that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur, in the Arctic in 2026, and subsequently in the Antarctic in early 2027, triggering numerous additional feedbacks, including eruption of methane from the seafloor and release of ocean heat into the atmosphere.

The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.

[ image from earlier post ]

Colored in red on the above image is an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of loss of Antarctic sea ice. While this extra forcing applied only to parts of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, it is a big deal, considering that all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019 amounted to an extra radiative forcing of +2.16 W/m² globally, as discussed in an earlier post.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/double-blue-ocean-event.html

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/08/antarctic-sea-ice-increasingly-in-danger.html

• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

On August 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.24°C or 70.23°F, an anomaly of +1°C or +1.8°F from 1982-2010, the highest sea surface temperature on record and the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset) shows the temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 23, 2026, with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) highlighted.

The image below shows the global sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026.

The image below, from Copernicus, shows a sea surface temperature of 21.1°C or 69.98°F on August 21, 2026, a record high temperature and an anomaly of +0.67°C or +1.21°F from 1991-2020.

High sea surface temperatures have a detrimental impact on sea ice and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record.

On August 23, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.02 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.58σ. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years.

Ocean heat is not the only mechanisms causing sea ice decline. Below are eight mechanisms that are heating up the Arctic Ocean and low Arctic sea ice in 2026 will also have a detrimental impact on Antarctic sea ice, threatening to cause a double Blue ocean event.

Eight mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

1. Ocean heat

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026, this time with a projection that highlights how much the Arctic Ocean is getting hit by high sea surface temperatures. The blue areas in the Arctic Ocean indicate heavy melting of sea ice. There no longer is a cold area visible south of Greenland, indicating that this cold area has been overwhelmed by rising sea surface temperatures.

Geographic conditions are also important. Warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 34°C (or 93.2°F) around North America on August 22, 2026 and illustrating geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

Another important mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC).

Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature, e.g. slowing down of AMOC can cause huge amounts of ocean heat to accumulate in the North Atlantic, while a stronger cyclone can abruptly push much of this ocean heat abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from the seafloor.

4. Albedo

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows the Arctic on August 8, 2026, illustrating that there can be a huge difference between the bright white color of the snow and ice cover over Greenland (bottom right), the color of melting sea ice (left) and the dark color of the water where the sea ice has disappeared.

5. Emissivity

Research led by Feldman (2014) found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.

6. Heatwaves and water from land

As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.2°C (or 64.76°F) in the Bering Strait on August 17, 2026. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

Heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean, while warm water from land and rivers can additionally warm up the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a seventh mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

8. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The eighth mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, lightning, fires and ozone, as discussed in posts such as this one. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can also increase temperatures dramatically, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows record high temperatures in the Tropics for the time of year. The image shows temperatures in the Tropics through August 31, 2026, when the temperature was 26.2°C or 79.16°F, an anomaly of +1.27°C versus 1979-2000. The globe shows the temperature anomaly versus 1979-2020 on August 31, 2026. Keep in mind that neither of those periods is a pre-industrial base.

In winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature can be very low on Antarctica. On August 22, 2026, the temperature near the South Pole was below -60°C or -76°F, at the green circle, as illustrated by the image below.

Such large differences between the temperature at the Equator and the temperature at the South Pole come with large pressure differences that are strengthening wind patterns at 250 hPa, where the Jet Streams are located. This is illustrated by the image below, which shows how the flow of the Jet Stream is shaped by differences in pressure levels

The Jet Stream typically goes around Antarctica, forming a barrier that maintains low temperatures over Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice. In this case, however, the Jet Stream is crossing Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move over the Southern Ocean and reach Antarctica.

The image below shows an atmospheric river of moisture moving toward Antarctica, with total cloud water of 1.63 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location over the Southern Ocean marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 7.5 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a relative humidity of 100% recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location near the South Pole marked by the green circle.

The image below shows an air temperature of 0.0°C or 32.1°F over the sea surface near Antarctica on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows that an air temperature of 4.1°C or 39.3°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a forecast for August 21, 2026, of precipitable water anomalies.

Snowfall over Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and evaporation is getting stronger as temperatures rise.

Part of the resulting precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

The forecast underneath further illustrates the potential for warm, moist air to travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica and cause significant snowfall over Antarctica.

[ snowfall over Antarctica, forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty.

In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform.

This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

Combined impact of El Niño, Antarctic sea ice loss and methane eruptions

The above mechanism was discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. The dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 looks set to continue long-term, due to the compound impact of feedbacks that are self-amplified and/or that amplify each other through albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes, salinity changes, ocean stratification, etc.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

On August 16, 2026, the Antarctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day with a standard deviation of -4.68σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

The potential impact of El Niño, loss of Antarctic sea ice and methane eruptions has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, research published in 2025 highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ClimateReanalyzer