Friday, August 7, 2026

Record high temperatures

Record high global surface air temperature for the time of year

On August 8, 2026, the global surface air temperature was 17.04°C, the highest temperature on record for this day of the year. The globe (inset) shows the global temperature anomaly on August 8, 2026, with anomalies showing up higher than 12°C.


Record high Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature 

Land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The Northern Hemisphere is heating up faster than the Southern Hemisphere, since the Northern Hemisphere has more land. On August 1, 2026, a record high temperature of 22.4°C was reached in the Northern Hemisphere, 1.45°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. The globe (inset) shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 1, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above anomalies are not calculated from pre-industrial. Another threshold is the wet-bulb temperature threshold, at which the human body can no longer cool down by sweating even in strong wind.

The image below shows a forecast for July 26, 2026, 21:00 UTC. The image shows a temperature of 122°F (50°C) at a location near Death Valley with a relative humidity of 9% resulting in a wet bulb globe temperature of 95°F (35°C). At the same time, a temperature of 116°F (47°C) with a relative humidity of 20% results in a wet bulb globe temperature of 97°F (36°C) at a location in the south of California.

[ Wet-bulb threshold crossed, image from earlier post ]
The wet-bulb globe temperature is measured in direct sunlight, whereas the wet-bulb temperature is measured in the shade. The wet-bulb temperature threshold can be reached or exceeded by a combination of temperature and humidity, and it is the maximum, the absolute physiological limit, that a human can endure as a peak. It was long assumed that reaching such a limit would require a large increase in global temperature. However, a 2020 study (led by Raymond) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C above pre-industrial. As the above image indicates, the wet bulb globe temperature limit can already be reached or even exceeded now.

Furthermore, a 2022 study (led by Vecellio) finds that the actual limit can be much lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.

Record high sea surface temperature 

As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.


Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 9, 2026.  


The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C (or 91.94°F) around North America on August 9, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C on August 9, 2026 - click on images to enlarge ]

As temperatures at higher latitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post.

The combination image below shows a nullschool.net image with a sea surface temperature of 4.6°C or 40.3°F recorded at the green circle on August 8, 2026 (left), and Northern Hemisphere maximum temperature on August 9, 2026 (right).


Sea ice 

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 8, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 8, 2026 (right). 


On August 8, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.195 million km², while Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.314 million km², as also illustrated by the image below that also shows sea ice concentration on August 8, 2026.


On August 11, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.14 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -5.46σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. 


El Niño

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.65°C on August 9, 2026, 2.87°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.9°C in a span of 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 9, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.


Back in March 2026, La Niña was dominant, but this time what is forecast to be the strongest El Niño on record is present and it is strengthening, with the potential to unleash a Double Blue Ocean Event, an Arctic Blue Ocean Event in 2026 followed by an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in early 2027.


The above image is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 over the years in the Niño3.4 region, a region in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for El Niño strength. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of more than 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right) to highlight the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur.

[ click on images to enlarge, image from earlier post ]
The above image, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019. The red color shows an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of Antarctic sea ice loss. This +2.1 W/m² is about as much as forcing as the change caused by all CO² released by people from 1750 to 2019, according to IPCC AR6 figures (image right, from earlier post).

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

El Niño could trigger huge rise

Land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The image below shows NASA Land-Only annual anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through 2025. 


The above image shows that 1.5°C was crossed on land for each month since 2009 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed on land in 2021 and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, possibly before 2030 if this trend continues (dashed red extension), or even as early as end 2026, triggered by El Niño (see image below).

As said, land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The Northern Hemisphere is heating up faster than the Southern Hemisphere, since the Northern Hemisphere has more land. The image below shows NOAA temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 (not pre-industrial) on land in the Northern Hemisphere through July 2026 with a polynomial trend added. The image should act as a warning, illustrating the danger that the strengthening 2026 El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in late 2026 that could cross the 3°C threshold.


Human extinction

Most people live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. A 2019 post discussed that a temperature rise of more than 3°C may be fatal for many species, including humans. 

The screenshot below describes the existential danger for humans.
The screenshot below adds: 
Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice 


• Double Blue Ocean Event

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update

• Antarctica


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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

Rising temperature

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).


The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on July 22, 2026 (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year (image below). 


The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures. The amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño is on track to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

[ The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026. ]
In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.


In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the Arctic surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the danger that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

[ Arctic heating up most strongly ]
This partly explains why the temperature rise is accelerating most strongly in the Arctic. The image on the right, adapted from NASA, shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 as high as 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and result in methane releases.

[ forecast for August 2, 2026 ]
Very high temperatures are increasingly occurring at higher altitudes. The image on the right shows a forecast for August 2, 2026, of high temperatures reaching Canada, as illustrated by the image on the right.

A recent study led by Christina Schädel warns that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature, while emissions from permafrost fires and thaw are often excluded from calculations of anthropogenic emissions.

A recent Northern Hemisphere lakes study led by Jian Zhou finds that as a critical thermal threshold of mean winter air temperature gets crossed, the sensitivity of ice loss increases by up to 22-fold. 

[ forecast for August 8, 2026 ]
The image on the right shows a forecast for August 8, 2026, of high temperatures hitting a large part of South Dakota, further showing that high temperatures can reach higher latitudes north. 

The forecast also constitutes a warning that higher temperatures at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere come with the danger of massive thawing of Arctic permafrost, melting of Arctic sea ice and releases of large amounts of greenhouse gases. 

Sea surface temperature

As temperatures at higher latitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post. 

As illustrated by the image below, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.


Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. 

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C (or 91.94°F) around North America on August 2, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic. 

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C, click on images to enlarge ]

The 2026 El Niño

The 2026 El Niño is on track to cause very high sea surface temperatures over the next few months. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts approach 5°C for parts of some members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).


The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts of many members partly exceed 5°C, while part of the mean approaches 5°C.


The image below shows the August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecasts for Niño 1+2 region (left), the Niño 3 region (center) and the Niño 3.4 region (right).


The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.59°C on August 4, 2026, 2.75°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.84°C in a span of less than 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 4, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1971-2000 on August 4, 2026. A huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.


High and rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño is still getting stronger and is on track to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow in early 2027.

Sea ice

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 4, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 4, 2026 (right).


As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice extent was 2.9 million km² lower than 1981-2010, a deviation of -4.11σ, on July 27, 2026 (highlighted in black). The year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. 


The above image shows that the 2026 global sea ice extent anomaly has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño is on track to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for both Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice, and comes with the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Blue Ocean Event

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds - by Jian Zhou et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610752123
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164551691999679

• Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach - by Christina Schädel et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03189-5
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163804667894679 
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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Emissions are not falling

Temperature rise

For many years, alarms have been raised about the accelerating temperature rise. Forest fires and methane releases in the Arctic contribute strongly to the acceleration of the temperature rise and to the danger that the clouds tipping point may get crossed soon, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.54°C on July 20, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.34°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.


On July 25, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.16°C, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.96°C higher than 1982-2010, a record high anomaly versus 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 25, 2026.


Ocean heat in the Northern Hemisphere constitutes the primary cause of Arctic sea ice decline, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. In a publication issued July 13, 2026, NOAA announced El Niño to be present, adding that the 2026 El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year. The 2026 El Niño, on top of the accelerating temperature rise, threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as well as loss of virtually all Antarctic sea ice in early 2027, as also illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomaly forecast below for January 2027, a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

[ image from earlier post ]
Clearly, politicians must take drastic action that includes action to increase resilience and action to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Sadly, it appears that politicians are not taking the necessary action and that - as a result - emissions are rising.

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]
Greenhouse gases rising

Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising since 1750, as illustrated by the image on the right. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have been rising rapidly, while methane has been rising even more rapidly. 

More methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

The 2026 El Niño is strengthening and sea surface temperatures are already at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing massive eruptions of methane contained in those sediments in the form of methane hydrates and free gas held underneath these hydrates. 

Concentrations of gases

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. While concentrations should be coming down at this time of year due to seasonal changes, recent concentrations are very high, with one recent flask reading exceeding 442 parts per million.


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There is a huge spread in recent readings, which may reflect forest fires. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average methane concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average nitrous oxide concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


Sadly, the images indicate that concentrations of greenhouse gases are not falling, they are rising instead. Forest fires are striking across the globe, which contributes to forests turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources, as discussed in posts such as this one. Furthermore, forest fires come with huge releases of carbon monoxide that deplete hydroxyl, in turn extending the lifetime of methane, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Fossil fuel subsidies and investments 

Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are planning to extract more natural gas. The IEA estimates that around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal in 2026. Natural gas investment is projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade.


The IMF describes two different types of fossil fuel subsidies. Explicit subsidies (when the retail price is below a fuel’s supply cost) and implicit subsidies (when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax). External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily premature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion, accident, and road damage externalities associated with the use of road fuels.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• The 2026 El Niño
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (issued July 13, 2026)
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IMF - Fossil Fuel Subsidies (update April 22, 2026)
https://www.imf.org/en/topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

• IEA - World Energy Investment report 2026 
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