Arctic News

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

On August 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.24°C or 70.23°F, an anomaly of +1°C or +1.8°F from 1982-2010, the highest sea surface temperature on record and the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset) shows the temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 23, 2026, with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) highlighted.

The image below shows the global sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026.

The image below, from Copernicus, shows a sea surface temperature of 21.1°C or 69.98°F on August 21, 2026, a record high temperature and an anomaly of +0.67°C or +1.21°F from 1991-2020.

High sea surface temperatures have a detrimental impact on sea ice and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record.

On August 23, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.02 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.58σ. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years.

Ocean heat is not the only mechanisms causing sea ice decline. Below are eight mechanisms that are heating up the Arctic Ocean and low Arctic sea ice in 2026 will also have a detrimental impact on Antarctic sea ice, threatening to cause a double Blue ocean event.

Eight mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

1. Ocean heat

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026, this time with a projection that highlights how much the Arctic Ocean is getting hit by high sea surface temperatures. The blue areas in the Arctic Ocean indicate heavy melting of sea ice. There no longer is a cold area visible south of Greenland, indicating that this cold area has been overwhelmed by rising sea surface temperatures.

Geographic conditions are also important. Warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 34°C (or 93.2°F) around North America on August 22, 2026 and illustrating geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

Another important mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC).

Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature, e.g. slowing down of AMOC can cause huge amounts of ocean heat to accumulate in the North Atlantic, while a stronger cyclone can abruptly push much of this ocean heat abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from the seafloor.

4. Albedo

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows the Arctic on August 8, 2026, illustrating that there can be a huge difference between the bright white color of the snow and ice cover over Greenland (bottom right), the color of melting sea ice (left) and the dark color of the water where the sea ice has disappeared.

5. Emissivity

Research led by Feldman (2014) found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.

6. Heatwaves and water from land

As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.2°C (or 64.76°F) in the Bering Strait on August 17, 2026. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

Heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean, while warm water from land and rivers can additionally warm up the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a seventh mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

8. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The eighth mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, lightning, fires and ozone, as discussed in posts such as this one. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can also increase temperatures dramatically, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on August 16, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, showing a temperature of 25.97°C or 78.75°F, an anomaly of -1.17°C from a 1979-2000 base. Keep in mind that this is not a pre-industrial base.

In winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature can be very low on Antarctica. On August 22, 2026, the temperature near the South Pole was below -60°C or -76°F, at the green circle, as illustrated by the image below.

Such large differences between the temperature at the Equator and the temperature at the South Pole come with large pressure differences that are strengthening wind patterns at 250 hPa, where the Jet Streams are located. This is illustrated by the image below, which shows how the flow of the Jet Stream is shaped by differences in pressure levels

The Jet Stream typically goes around Antarctica, forming a barrier that maintains low temperatures over Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice. In this case, however, the Jet Stream is crossing Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move over the Southern Ocean and reach Antarctica.

The image below shows an atmospheric river of moisture moving toward Antarctica, with total cloud water of 1.63 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location over the Southern Ocean marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 7.5 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a relative humidity of 100% recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location near the South Pole marked by the green circle.

The image below shows an air temperature of 0.0°C or 32.1°F over the sea surface near Antarctica on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows that an air temperature of 4.1°C or 39.3°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a forecast for August 21, 2026, of precipitable water anomalies.

Snowfall over Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and evaporation is getting stronger as temperatures rise.

Part of the resulting precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

The forecast underneath further illustrates the potential for warm, moist air to travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica and cause significant snowfall over Antarctica.

[ snowfall over Antarctica, forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty.

In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform.

This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

Combined impact of El Niño, Antarctic sea ice loss and methane eruptions

The above mechanism was discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. The dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 looks set to continue long-term, due to the compound impact of feedbacks that are self-amplified and/or that amplify each other through albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes, salinity changes, ocean stratification, etc.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

On August 16, 2026, the Antarctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day with a standard deviation of -4.68σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

The potential impact of El Niño, loss of Antarctic sea ice and methane eruptions has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, research published in 2025 highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ClimateReanalyzer

Friday, August 7, 2026

Record high temperatures

Record high global surface air temperature for the time of year

On August 15, 2026, the global surface air temperature was 17.05°C, the highest temperature on record for this day of the year. The globe (inset) shows the global temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 15, 2026, with anomalies showing up higher than 12°C and with Antarctica and sea ice around Antarctica getting hit by very high (as well as low) temperature anomalies.

Record high Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature

Land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The Northern Hemisphere is heating up faster than the Southern Hemisphere, since the Northern Hemisphere has more land. On August 1, 2026, a record high temperature of 22.4°C was reached in the Northern Hemisphere, 1.45°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. The globe (inset) shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 1, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On August 12, 2026, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 22.57°C, a record high for the day of the year and 1.48°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. The globe (inset) shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 12, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

The above anomalies are not calculated from pre-industrial. Another threshold is the wet-bulb temperature threshold, at which the human body can no longer cool down by sweating even in strong wind.

The image below shows a forecast for July 26, 2026, 21:00 UTC. The image shows a temperature of 122°F (50°C) at a location near Death Valley with a relative humidity of 9% resulting in a wet bulb globe temperature of 95°F (35°C). At the same time, a temperature of 116°F (47°C) with a relative humidity of 20% results in a wet bulb globe temperature of 97°F (36°C) at a location in the south of California.

[ Wet-bulb threshold crossed, image from earlier post ]

The wet-bulb globe temperature is measured in direct sunlight, whereas the wet-bulb temperature is measured in the shade. The wet-bulb temperature threshold can be reached or exceeded by a combination of temperature and humidity, and it is the maximum, the absolute physiological limit, that a human can endure as a peak. It was long assumed that reaching such a limit would require a large increase in global temperature. However, a 2020 study (led by Raymond) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C above pre-industrial. As the above image indicates, the wet bulb globe temperature limit can already be reached or even exceeded now.

Furthermore, a 2022 study (led by Vecellio) finds that the actual limit can be much lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.

Record high sea surface temperature

As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.

Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 19, 2026.

On August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle), as illustrated by the image below.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.6°C (or 92.48°F) around North America on August 17, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.6°C on August 17, 2026 - click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows a surface temperature of 23.1°C or 73.5°F recorded at a location on Greenland marked by the green circle on August 5, 2026.

As air temperatures and sea surface temperatures rise at higher latitudes, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates.

This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post.

The combination image below shows a nullschool.net image with a sea surface temperature of 4.6°C or 40.3°F recorded at the green circle on August 8, 2026 (left), and Northern Hemisphere maximum temperature on August 9, 2026 (right).

Sea ice

Rising temperatures threaten to unleash a Double Blue Ocean Event.

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 8, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 8, 2026 (right).

The high temperatures that are recorded in many places in August 2026 are not restricted to the Northern Hemisphere. The image below shows that a temperature of 42°C or 107.6°F is forecast to hit a location in Paraguay (marked by the green circle) while it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, on August 17, 2026.

On August 13, 2026, the global sea ice area was 15.56 million km², the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -5.07σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple.

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 12, 2026. The image on the right also shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become even stronger, as discussed below.

El Niño

The image below, from NOAA, shows an outlook of the 2026 El Niño strength and probabilities, issued August 2026.

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.65°C on August 9, 2026, 2.87°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.9°C in a span of 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 9, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

Back in March 2026, La Niña was dominant, but this time what is forecast to be the strongest El Niño on record is present and it is strengthening, with the potential to unleash a Double Blue Ocean Event, an Arctic Blue Ocean Event in 2026 followed by an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in early 2027.

The above image is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 over the years in the Niño3.4 region, a region in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for El Niño strength. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of more than 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right) to highlight the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur. For more on the 2026 El Niño also see this earlier post.

The above image shows the global monthly temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 through July 2026.

The above image shows the July 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, with very high anomalies showing up over and around Antarctica.

[ click on images to enlarge, image from earlier post ]

The above image, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019. The red color shows an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of Antarctic sea ice loss. This +2.1 W/m² is about as much as forcing as the change caused by all CO² released by people from 1750 to 2019, according to IPCC AR6 figures (image right, from earlier post).

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

El Niño could trigger huge rise

Land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The image below shows NASA Land-Only annual anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through 2025.

The above image shows that 1.5°C was crossed on land for each month since 2009 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed on land in 2021 and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, possibly before 2030 if this trend continues (dashed red extension), or even as early as end 2026, triggered by El Niño (see image below).

As said, land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. The Northern Hemisphere is heating up faster than the Southern Hemisphere, since the Northern Hemisphere has more land. The image below shows NOAA temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 (not pre-industrial) on land in the Northern Hemisphere through July 2026 with a polynomial trend added. The image should act as a warning, illustrating the danger that the strengthening 2026 El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in late 2026 that could cross the 3°C threshold.

Human extinction

Most people live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. A 2019 post discussed a 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicating that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. What does this mean for humans? Terrestrial vertebrates are more in danger than many other species, since they depend on numerous other species for food. Humans are terrestrial vertebrates and humans are also large warm-blooded mammals with high metabolic rates, thus requiring more habitat. It also takes a long time for humans to reach maturity. Additionally, humans have become addicted to processed food, fossil fuels, plastic, etc. Furthermore, humans require large amounts of fresh water, including for sweating when temperatures rise. Therefore, a temperature rise of more than 3°C may be fatal for many species such as humans. In other words, a 3°C rise may suffice to cause human extinction, as warned about in earlier posts such as this one. The image below highlights the existential danger for humans.

[ from the 2019 post When Will We Die? ]

As temperatures rise, the outlook is widespread crop loss and shortages of fresh water. Temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapid warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, as discussed in an earlier post. Rapidly transforming society could improve the outlook, but - sadly - this currently doesn't have much government support.

Conclusion