Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Very high temperatures in Tropics

Temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) have been very high in 2024 (see black line, image below), much higher than they were at this time of year in 2023 (orange line). 


The above image shows that on May 24, 2024, the temperature was 26.7°C (or 80.06°F), an anomaly of 1°C (or 1.8°F) compared to 1979-2000. 

The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) compared to 1951-1980.  


Note that the above-mentioned anomalies are compared to 1979-2000 and 1951-1980, neither of which is pre-industrial. The anomalies would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. 

The maps below are adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and show maximum temperatures for three days. The image directly below shows maximum temperatures on May 29, 2024. Extremely high temperatures were recorded in India and Pakistan.


The image below has a focus on Asia, showing the extremely high temperatures recorded in India and Pakistan on May 30, 2024. 


The image below shows maximum temperatures around the world on May 31, 2024. 


Surface precipitable water

Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023. Worryingly, data for the first four months of 2024 are a lot higher than they were in 2023 at the same time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. This raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html


• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Friday, May 17, 2024

Temperatures in the Tropics

The image below shows that temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) were very high during the second half of April 2024, and these very high temperatures were sustained during the first part of May 2024. The temperature was 26.9°C (or 80.42°F) on May 11, 2024, an anomaly of 1.1°C (or 1.98°F) from 1979-2000. 


The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.  


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows maximum temperatures on May 28, 2024.


Calculating the temperature rise

Note that the anomalies for the top image are calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies for the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.

Also have a look at the analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Furthermore, a recent analysis shows that land temperatures 30°N- 90°N in summer 2023 were 2.07°C warmer than 1850-1900, while a subsequent longer-range analysis shows that the mean temperature in the period 1850 to 1900 was actually 0.24°C lower than had been presumed on the basis of the data collected at the time by meteorological stations.

A larger temperature rise comes with stronger feedbacks, e.g. the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C above pre-industrial, corresponding with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the air. This is just one out of numerous feedbacks, while there are also developments such as reductions of sulfur emissions that can push up the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

A larger temperature rise comes with increasingly extreme weather events that cause widespread damage and threaten to cause even more loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failures and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.

Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post.

The IPCC keeps downplaying how dire the situation is we're in

Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps giving the impression that the temperature rise is small, e.g. by using the period 1850-1900 as "reference", despite mounting evidence that the temperature rise is much larger, especially when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. The IPCC also keeps giving the impression that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, a carbon budget large enough for polluters to keep polluting for decades to come, whereas there is just a huge carbon debt for which there is no short-term remedy.

A recent analysis concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.

The joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only cover part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon).

The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth. Miesner et al. warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.

The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161250170389679

• 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years - by Jan Esper et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-y
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161422819504679

• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling - by Justine Ramage et al.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007953
discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161358846384679

• Subsea permafrost organic carbon stocks are large and of dominantly low reactivity - by Frederieke Miesner et al. (2023)
discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161358846384679

• Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon - by Yuanyuan Huang et al. (2024)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi7918
discussed at facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161354439024679

• IPCC AR6 WG1 FAQ 5.2 | Can Thawing Permafrost Substantially Increase Global Warming?
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_05.pdf

Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Change

• Just do NOT tell them the monster exists

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Posts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:
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Monday, May 13, 2024

Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more


The April 2024 temperature was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C.


The April 2024 temperature was 1.62°C higher than 1900-1930, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. The red line highlights acceleration of the temperature rise (Lowess Smoothing). 

The image below, created with NOAA content, uses a LOESS filter (green line) to highlight the recent acceleration in the temperature rise of the ocean. In this case, the temperature anomaly is calculated versus a 1901-2000 base. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The temperature anomaly is even higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The image below, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below, created with NASA content, shows Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024). What could be behind such a steep rise? 

Have Feedbacks taken over? 

In April 2024, El Niño conditions were still dominant. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high recently. The correlation between El Niño and temperature anomalies (from 1901-2000) is illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content, El Niño conditions are no longer dominant. Instead, neutral conditions now prevail and La Niña conditions may develop as early as June-August 2024 (49% chance) or one month later, i.e. July-September (69% chance). 


The extremely high recent temperatures and the trends depicted in the images further above raise the question as to what the underlying driver is, given that we're no longer in an El Niño. Indeed, the question is whether feedbacks have taken over as the main driver causing the temperature rise to further accelerate. 

As mentioned above, the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C higher than pre-industrial. The extinction page points out that a 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.

There is no single feedback that could cause the recent steep rise of temperatures and its acceleration, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-amplifying feedback loops that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise. 

Such feedbacks do include more water vapor, as said, as well as stronger wind, waves and storms, more ocean stratification, faster loss of sea ice, faster loss of reflectivity of clouds and more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation.

Furthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions over the past few years all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Two tipping points threaten to get crossed

For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. 


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1991-2020 on May 31, 2024. 


The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic harder than elsewhere, as illustrated by the images at the top and below, created with NASA content. 


Contributing to these high temperatures in the Arctic are high temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean, which are now rising rapidly, in line with seasonal changes, as illustrated by the image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer content. 


The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 22.4°C on May 31, 2024, higher than the temperature in 2023 for this time of year. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic, due to prevailing winds and ocean circulation.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now rising strongly, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023. The question is how high the North Atlantic temperature will be in 2024 at that time of year. 

The image below shows North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1982-2011. Data shown are from September 1, 1981, through May 31, 2024.


As discussed, one reason for the high temperatures of the North Atlantic is that sulfur emissions have been reduced over the years. Furthermore, there are many feedbacks. Importantly, there is potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, as also illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image highlights mechanisms with the potential to contribute to further heating up of the Arctic Ocean resulting in more methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Oceans, including storms and changes to the Jet Stream, as discussed before. e.g. in this post. 

One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, in this case the energy consumed as solid ice turns into liquid water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

As long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice has steadily been declining in thickness.

Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, and as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.  


The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of sea ice thickness implies loss of the latent heat buffer and constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at accelerating pace. 


The above map, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, shows that much of the thicker sea ice is located away from the North Pole, such as off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.

Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ from earlier post ]
[ image from the Extinction page ]
On the above image, estimates for these two tipping points are added to Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Furthermore, two trends are added. The magenta trend is based on January 1880-January 2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend, which is based on January 2010-January 2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024.

Crossing of the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point results in ever more heat reaching and accumulating in the Arctic ocean, destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and developments as discussed above, as well as crossing of these two tipping points, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the Climate Emergency group.



Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - National Centers for Environment Information
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center / National Centers for Environmental Prediction
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Moistening Atmosphere

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

• Arctic sea ice under threat

• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html



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Tracking toward mass extinction

 by Andrew Glikson

Where “Two plus two equals five if the party says so” (George Orwell)
and when drilling methane wells reduces global warming


Having turned a blind eye to climate science, ignoring the evidence that extreme atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) rise and ocean acidification have led to mass extinctions of species through time, humanity allows an exponential growth of carbon emissions to track toward a global suicide marked by false pretexts and betrayal by the powers that be. The evidence suggests unabated global warming will lead to 3.4 million Deaths Per Year by Century End, fatal consequences calling for a preemptive Nuremberg-like trial exposing the crimes leading to the looming climate suicide.

Note the future estimates of CO₂ levels.
[ Figure 1. Historic CO₂, by Owen Mulhern, image from Forster et al. (2017) ]

Note the sharp current and near-future temperature rise.

[ Figure 2. by Glen Fergus, from: Wikipedia - Temperature of Planet Earth ]

The rise in CO₂ in the atmosphere and oceans and the rise in ocean acidity (decline in pH).
[ Figure 3. As human activities have increased CO2 levels in our atmosphere (red line),
about a third of that CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean (green line), and
ocean pH has decreased (blue line). Adapted from NOAA by UC Museum of Paleontology. ]

According to the IPCC, as stated by the late Prof Will Steffen, Australia’s foremost climate scientist, if the exponential rise in greenhouse gas emissions continues we will already have crossed the upper limit that gives us a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to <2.0°C. Other scientists estimate that we have already missed the boat.

During the 200-plus years since the onset of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels, changing land use and deforestation increased the concentration of atmospheric CO₂. As the ocean absorbs about 30% of the CO₂ its surface acidity increased by -0.1 pH units on a logarithmic scale, resulting in rising concentration of hydrogen ions, a process with far reaching implications for the survival of marine organisms, altering ecosystems.

Ocean acidification affects marine life by dissolving shells and skeletons made from calcium carbonate. Organisms that produce calcium carbonate structures, like corals, sea urchins, sea snails and oysters, need to spend extra energy repairing damaged shells or thickening them to survive.

The onset of the Sixth mass extinction of species.

[ Figure 4. Cumulative vertebrate species recorded as extinct or extinct in the wild by the IUCN (2012). Dashed black line represents background rate. This is the ‘highly conservative estimate’. Source: Ceballos et al. (2015). ]

There have been five Mass Extinction events in the history of Earth's biodiversity, all caused by dramatic natural phenomena. The current rate of extinction is 10 to 100 times higher than in any of the previous mass extinctions in the history of Earth. Incorporating estimates of the true number of invertebrate extinctions leads to the conclusion that the rate vastly exceeds the background rate and that we may indeed be witnessing the start of the Sixth Mass Extinction Island species have suffered far greater rates than continental ones.

As systematic biologists, we encourage the nurturing of the innate human appreciation of biodiversity, but we reaffirm the message that the biodiversity that makes our world so fascinating, beautiful and functional is vanishing unnoticed at an unprecedented rate. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way.

While multitudes of humanity are trying to escape climate disasters, such as Africa, or are engaged in fatal conflicts and geocidal wars, or are perched in front of electronic screens flaunting obscene hubris, cheap entertainment and commercial and political propaganda.

It is far from clear who, apart from the children, would be able to save life on Earth?



A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson
Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080




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Friday, May 3, 2024

Is CMIP6 SSP585 the worst-case scenario?

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the temperature in the year 2100, in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. The image shows how much the temperature will have risen in 2100, at 2 meters above the surface and compared to the period 1979-2000. 


The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.589°C in 2100 compared to the same period, i.e. 1979-2000 and in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.


The 1979-2000 period is relatively recent. The temperature has been rising for longer than that. The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.91°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario when instead using a 1901-2000 period as a base.

The 1901-2000 period is also relatively recent, much later than pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, the temperature rise will be well over 5°C.

As illustrated by the top image, the temperature rise over land will be much higher than over oceans, which makes the situation even more dire, given that most people live on land and could face a rise of  8°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.

In a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, temperatures are projected to keep rising strongly beyond 2100, as illustrated by the image below, from a 2016 paper by Brian O'Neill et al.


In the study by Brian O'Neill et al., CO₂ emissions keep rising until 2100, to then fall gradually to current levels, while the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere keep rising, to remain at levels beyond 2000 ppm and result in a temperature rise of 8°C by 2300 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.

Is CMIP6 SSP585 the worst-case scenario?

To check whether CMIP6 SSP585 is indeed the worst-case scenario, one can look at how fast CO₂ is rising. According to the IEA, global energy-related CO₂ emissions grew in 2023, reaching a new record high of 37.4 Gt (or 10.098 GtC). The image below, from a recent post, confirms the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentrations, while showing the potential for CO₂ concentration to cross 1200 ppm before the year 2060.


In other words, CO₂ may well be rising even faster than anticipated in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, while this scenario doesn't take into account the potential for CO₂e concentrations to cross 1200 ppm much earlier than 2100 (inset), e.g. before 2060 as illustrated by the red trend in the main image. Furthermore, CMIP6 SSP585 doesn't take into account that, in addition to the temperature rise resulting from high greenhouse gas concentrations, crossing the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm in itself would push up temperatures by a further 8°C.

Indeed, the clouds tipping point could be crossed even earlier when also taking into account methane, nitrous oxide and further greenhouse gases, while there are additional developments such as organic carbon and inorganic carbon release from soils that could further raise both CO₂ concentrations and temperatures. The Extinction page and posts such as this one and this one warn about the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C unfolding as early as 2026. 
In conclusion, the temperature looks set to be rising higher and faster at accelerating rate, dwarfing anything seen in previous extinction events, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."




The above image is a screenshot from the video (further above) in which physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer reflects on the first test of the atomic bomb. His haunting words mark the moment when science met conscience.

Similarly, climate change is a destroyer of worlds with unfathomable consequences, yet politicians refuse to heed the warnings, in an unprecedented breach of moral values, neglect of the precautionary principle, betrayal of trust and violation of the duty of care.

As a result, the IPCC persists with downplaying the potential for dangerous developments in efforts to hide the need for the most effective climate action. The IPCC keeps pointing at less effective policies such as support for BECCS and biofuel, while continuing to make it look as if there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, as if polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Meanwhile, a 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 - by Brian O'Neill et al. (2016)

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report
https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023

• September 2023, highest anomaly on record?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/september-2023-highest-anomaly-on-record.html

• CO2 keeps accelerating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/co2-keeps-accelerating.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• The Threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html

• Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions - by Farshid Vahedifard et al. 






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