Arctic News: 2026

Showing posts with label 2026. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

The 2026 El Niño

Double Blue Ocean 2026/2027?

The 2026 El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later, as also discussed in an earlier post.

On July 9, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a statement that El Niño is present and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. Forecasts indicate that the 2026 El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 16, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of many members and also for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 16, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 5°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4.5°C for part of the mean.

The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America). The images show that a rise of close to 5°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +3.486°C in the bottom image) occurred in less than seven months through July 18, 2026.

The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).

According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance of El Niño from June-August 2026 to Jan-March 2027. There is a 99% chance of El Niño in Jan-March 2027 and there is a 97% chance of El Niño in February–April 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is an 81% chance that El Niño in October-December 2026 will be very strong (greater than or equal to 2°C).

The image below shows an ECMWF forecast from July 1, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.

The combination image below shows ECMWF forecasts from July 1, 2026, for each of the four Niño regions.

On July 16, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region was 29.43°C, the highest on record for the time of year and 2.32°C above 1982-2010.

The world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (SST) was 21.06°C on July 17, 2026, a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below by ClimateReanalyzer, based on NOAA OISST V2.1 data. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026.

The Copernicus image below uses ERA5 data. The July 15, 2026, world (60°S–60°N) sea surface temperature was 20.96°C, an anomaly of 0.59°C above 1991-2020, and a record high for the time of year. The globe shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 15, 2026.

That's a large difference in SST anomalies! According to ClimateReanalyzer, the SST anomaly was 0.71°C from 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026, whereas according to Copernicus the SST anomaly was 0.59°C from 1991-2020 on July 15, 2026. Temperature anomalies are essential in the Paris Agreement and it's important how anomalies are calculated.

The forecast below of January 2027 sea surface temperature anomalies should act as a warning of El Niño's strength at a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

Are emissions falling?

With warning signs this large, one would expect politicians to be taking drastic action including action to increase resilience and to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Are emissions falling, or are they rising?

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]

The top part of the above image shows that, according to The Keeling Curve, the concentration of carbon dioxide was 430.07 parts per million on July 3, 2026, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The background image shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide has been rising for thousands of years, due to deforestation, burning of fuel, animal herding and agriculture by people.

The bottom part of the above mage shows that the temperature has been rising for more than 1500 years, while an added trend shows the potential for a 3°C rise this year, as discussed at the Extinction page.

Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are rising fast, while methane is rising even faster (see image on the right) and more methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

The image below shows that a methane peak of 2686 parts per billion was recorded by the NOAA20 satellite at 399.1 mb on July 7, 2026 AM.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent flask reading exceeds 442 parts per million.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows methane concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent daily reading exceeds 2000 parts per billion.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows nitrous oxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows the globally averaged marine surface mean nitrous oxide concentration through 2025 with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2047.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows global annual mean SF₆ through 2025, with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2037.

Temperature

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.03°C on July 4, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.3°C higher than 1979-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 4, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

The image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was 4.96°C on July 4, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.33°C higher than 1991-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 4, 2026., with the Arctic highlighted.

As the 2026 El Niño gains in strength, temperatures can be expected to rise further, which spells bad news for sea ice and for temperatures on land.

The image below was created with a NASA image (250 km smoothing radius) and shows that the temperature in some areas on land in June 2026 was 4°C to 9.8°C higher than in 1951-1980.

Looking more closely at the temperature rise on land is important, since most people do live on land. The image below shows NASA Land Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through June 2026.

The above image shows that 1.5°C was reached or crossed on land for each month since 2021 (black squares). The image shows a Lowess 4-year smoothing trend (red line) that indicates that 2°C was crossed on land during 2021 and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, possibly in 2031, if this trend continues (dashed red extension), or as early as in 2026 due to the current El Niño, which - as said at the start of this post - may trigger numerous feedbacks to start kicking in with accelerating ferocity.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• NOAA - Office of Satellite and Products Operations - NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• The Keeling Curve
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NASA - gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Extinction

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/04/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Runaway temperature rise by 2026?

March 2022 temperature anomaly

The NASA image below shows the March 2022 temperature anomaly. The Arctic is heating up strongly.

The above image shows a temperature rise for March 2022 of 1.06°C, which is the rise from 1951-1980. The image below shows a temperature rise from 1900 for March 2022 of 1.36°C.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The box on above image shows that, when including further adjustment, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. Details of the adjustment are described at the pre-industrial page. A 2.35°C rise is only 0.65°C away from a 3°C rise and, as described before, a 3°C rise will likely drive humans (and many other species) into extinction.

Note that the March 2022 temperature is suppressed, as we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above NOAA image shows that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius. The peak of the next El Niño may well coincide with a high number of sunspots (NOAA image right).

The image below features two trends. The black trend is based on adjusted Jan.1880-Mar.2022 NASA data and shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2027. The blue trend is based on adjusted Apr.2012-Mar.2022 NASA data and better reflects short-term variables such as sunspots and El Niño. The blue trend shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2025, triggered by an emerging El Niño and high sunspots.

Runaway temperature rise

[ click on images to enlarge ]

A strong El Niño combined with high sunspots could cause the global temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025.

Moreover, this could trigger runaway temperature rise, starting before 2026 where the temperature rise is felt most strongly, i.e. in the Arctic, especially during El Niño events, as illustrated by the image on the right that shows anomalies (vs 1951-1980) as high as 6.6°C in the Arctic.

[ see the Extinction page ]

The potential temperature rise is illustrated by the bar on the right.

As temperatures rise, loss of Arctic sea ice and of its latent heat buffer will cause more heating of the atmosphere, while changes to the Jet Stream will cause more extreme weather.

As humans go extinct, transport and industrial activities will stop that currently co-emit sulfur that masks the full extent of the temperature rise.

In addition, as also discussed at the aerosols page, worldwide forest fires and trash fires could cause huge amounts of black carbon to be emitted.

Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.

As the IPCC warns (see above image), for each additional 1°C of warming, the global volume of perennially frozen ground to 3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative to the present volume, and the IPCC adds that these decreases may be underestimates. As permafrost declines, huge amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide get released.

As the ocean heats up, a huge temperature rise could be caused by releases of seafloor methane, further contributing to the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) to get crossed, causing a further rise of 8°C. Altogether, the temperature rise could exceed 18°C.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

In the video below, Jennifer Hynes and Sandy Schoelles discuss the temperature rise.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Temperatures keep rising

Temperatures keep rising. Above image uses NASA data that are adjusted to reflect a 1750 baseline, ocean air temperatures and higher polar anomalies, while showing anomalies going back to September 2011, adding a blue trend going back to 1880 and a red trend going back to September 2011.

The map below also shows that in November 2020, especially the Arctic Ocean, again was very hot.

Anomalies in the above NASA image are compared to 1951-1980, while NOAA's default baseline for temperature anomalies is the 20th century average. In the Copernicus image below anomalies are compared to the 1981-2010 average.

Using a different baseline can make a lot of difference. An earlier analysis pointed out that, when using a 1750 baseline and when using ocean air temperatures and higher Arctic anomalies, we did already cross 2°C above pre-industrial in February 2020.

Above Copernicus image shows temperatures averaged over the twelve-month period from December 2019 to November 2020. The image shows that the shape of the global anomaly over the past twelve months is very similar to the peak reached around 2016. This confirms that global heating is accelerating, because the peak around 2016 was reached under strong El Niño conditions, whereas current temperatures are reached under La Niña conditions. Furthermore, sunspots are currently low. The La Niña and the low sunspots are both suppressing temperatures, as discussed in a recent post.

Future rise?

By how much will temperatures rise over the next few years?

Above image, from the U.N. Emissions Gap Report 2020, shows that growth in greenhouse gas emissions continued in 2019, with emissions reaching a total of 59.1 GtCO₂e. The commitments promised at the Paris Agreement in 2015 were not enough to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C and those commentments were not even met, said António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, calling on all nations to declare a state of Climate Emergency until carbon neutrality is reached. Earlier, António Guterres had said: "We are headed for a thundering temperature rise of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius this century."

What could cause a steep temperature rise over the next few years?

A temperature rise of more than 3°C above pre-industrial could occur, and this could actually happen within a few years time. There are a number of reasons why the temperature rise could take place so fast, as described below.

As said, the temperature is currently suppressed by the current La Niña and the currently low sunspots (Hansen et al. give the sunpot cycle an amplitude of some 0.25 W/m²). Such short-term differences show up more in the red trend of the image at the top, which uses a polynomial trend over a short period.

Compensating for the fact that sunspots are currently low and the fact that we're currently a La Niña period can already push the temperature anomaly well over the 2°C threshold that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged would not be crossed.

The above NOAA image and the NOAA image below illustrate that we are currently experiencing La Niña conditions.

How long will it take before we'll reach the peak of the next El Niño? NOAA says:

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

There are further reasons why the temperature rise could strongly accelerate over the next few years. Loss of cooling aerosols is one such reason. Another reason is the growing frequency and intensity of forest fires, which come with high emissions of methane, of heating aerosols such as black carbon and brown carbon, and of carbon monoxide that causes hydroxyl depletion, thus extending the lifetime of methane and heating aeosols.

Map from earlier post. The vertical axis depicts
latitude, the North Pole is at the top (90° North),
the Equator in the middle (0°) and the South Pole

at the bottom (-90° South). GHCN v4 land-surface

air + ERSST v5 sea-surface water temperature

anomaly. The Arctic anomaly reaches 4.83°C or
8.69°F vs 1951-1980, and 5.57°C vs 1885-1914.

A hotter world will will also hold more water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas.

Furthermore, many tipping points affect the Arctic, e.g. more methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be expected to result from continued decline of what once was permafrost.

The temperature rise is felt the strongest in the Arctic, as illustrated by the zonal mean temperature anomaly map on the right, from an earlier post.

As one of the tipping points gets crossed in the Arctic, multiple feedbacks can start kicking in more strongly, resulting in multiple additional tipping points to subsequently get crossed.

At least ten tipping points affect the Arctic, as described in an earlier post, and it looks like the latent heat tipping point has already been crossed, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, which shows two such tipping points.

[ from an earlier post ]

Huge temperature rise

When extending the vertical axis of the image at the top, a picture emerges that shows that a temperature rise of more than 13°C above 1750 could happen by 2026. The trend shows that 10°C is crossed in February 2026, while an additional rise of 3°C takes place in the course of 2026. The temperature could rise this much, in part because at 1200 ppm CO₂e the cloud feedback will start to kick in, which in itself can raise temperatures by an additional 8°C.

And the rise wouldn't stop there! Even when adding up the impact of only the existing carbon dioxide and methane levels, and then adding large releases of seafloor methane, this alone could suffice to trigger the cloud feedback, as described in an earlier post.

Of course, there are further warming elements, in addition to carbon dioxide and methane, and they could jointly cause a rise of 10°C by 2026 even in case of smaller releases of seafloor methane, as illustrated by the image below.

[ from an earlier post ]

Above image illustrates how a temperature rise of more than as 10°C could eventuate as early as February 2026 when taking into account aerosol changes, albedo changes, water vapor, nitrous oxide, etc., as discussed in an earlier analysis.

The joint impact of all warming elements, including the cloud feedback, threatens to cause a total rise of 18°C, as an earlier post warned, adding the image on the right.

How high could the temperature rise? At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, while most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, and as the temperature keeps rising, oceans will evaporate and Earth will go the same way as Venus, a 2019 analysis warned.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA Global Climate Report - November 2020
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202011

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - maps
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index.html

• What are El Niño and La Niña?
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

• Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)
https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei

• Copernicus - surface air temperature for Novmber 2020
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2020

• NOAA ISIS Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• Secretary-General's address at Columbia University: "The State of the Planet"
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2020-12-02/address-columbia-university-the-state-of-the-planet

• U.N. Emissions Gap Report 2020

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Temperature Rise

How much could temperatures rise by 2026? The above image shows how a rise of 10°C (18°F) could occur by the year 2026, based on temperature anomalies from 1750 for February and on progressive growth of warming elements. The image below shows the same rise in another way.

Such a rise could take place even more rapidly, as discussed in the earlier post 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? For more on calculating the temperature rise from 1750 to 2016, see this page and this post.

Crucial will be the decline of snow & sea ice and associated feedbacks. Ominously, global sea ice is at a record low at the moment, as illustrated by the graph below by Wipneus.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Arctic sea ice extent on August 15, 2017, was the 2nd lowest on record for the time of year (behind only 2012), as illustrated by the image on the right.

While extent was lower on August 15, 2012, Arctic sea ice is very thin at the moment, as the Arctic Ocean has become warmer, and sea ice could disappear altogether in one month time, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

And ominously, July 2017 was the hottest July on record, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The July temperature anomaly was particularly high on land on the Southern Hemisphere (1.53°C or 2.75°F, compared to 1901-2000), as illustrated by the image on the right, showing a linear trend over the period 2012-2017.

Above image shows that July 2017 was 2.25°C (4.05°F) warmer than the annual global mean 1980-2015 (seasonal cycle). Only in August 2016 was it warmer (2.29°C), but then again, August 2017 looks set to be warmer than that yet.

The fall in thickness of the sea ice indicates that the buffer has gone that until now has consumed heat entering the Arctic Ocean during the melting season. In the absence of this buffer, where can all this extra heat go? Sea ice will start sealing off much of the surface of the Arctic Ocean by the end of September 2017, making it hard for more heat to escape from the Arctic Ocean by entering the atmosphere.

The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

The danger is that much of the extra heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain huge amounts of methane in currently still frozen hydrates.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Higher temperatures could destabilize methane hydrates, resulting in huge methane eruptions.

A polynomial trend, based on NOAA July 1983 to January 2017 global monthly mean methane data, points at twice as much methane by 2034, as the image on the right shows. Stronger methane releases from the seafloor could make such a doubling occur even earlier. Over the next decade, methane will cause more warming than CO₂ ─ twice as much methane will cause more than twice as much warming.

Methane reached peaks as high as 2881 ppb at 479 mb on August 18, 2017, as the combination image below shows (left panel, top left corner).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image doesn't specify the origin of the peak, but when levels are that much above the mean, the likely cause is either wildfires or clathrate destabilization. As the image in the right panel shows, methane levels at 280 mb were also very high over the Arctic Ocean north of Canada in the morning that day, which is unusual at such an altitude.

The image below shows that mean global methane reached a level of 1881 ppb at 280 mb (MetOp-1, am) on August 15, 2017.