[ high temperatures forecast over the North Pole, click on images to enlarge ]
The above image shows a temperature forecast for February 2, 2025 18z, run January 30, 2025 12Z. The green color indicates temperatures above freezing point. The image below shows the temperature anomaly compared to 1979-2000, with the light pink color over the Arctic indicating a 30°C anomaly.
[ temperature anomaly vs 1979-2000, click on images to enlarge ]
[ temperature anomaly at North Pole ]
A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that will cause the temperature at the North Pole to be above freezing point and 30°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above images by Climate Reanalyzer.
The image on the right shows a forecast run January 27, 2025 12Z, which shows that a large area over the North Pole is forecast to reach an anomaly of 30°C on February 2, 2025 18Z.
The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and much of this heat is moving toward the Arctic due to acceleration of prevailing wind and ocean currents.
[ Jet Stream changes, click on images to enlarge ]
Rising temperatures come with several feedbacks, one of which is deformation of the Jet Stream.
As a result, the movement of heat toward the Arctic can at times be accelerated abruptly by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right with a forecast for February 3, 2025 06Z, of wind speed at 250 hPa (Jet Stream).
According to nullschool, the temperature is forecast to reach 0.2°C (32.4 F) at the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the image below, which displays both temperature and wind at 1000 hPa.
The image below shows a temperature of 1.7°C (35.1°F) is forecast to hit the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 17:00 UTC at 1000 hPa (left panel) and 0.9°C (33.5°F) at surface (right panel).
As Arctic sea ice loses volume, this diminishes its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, resulting in higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
The image on the right shows Arctic sea ice volume up to January 29, 2025. Arctic sea ice volume in 2024 and 2025 has been much lower than in previous years. More incoming heat therefore threatens to reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as illustrated by the above image.
These are many feedbacks that come with rising the temperatures, and they can contribute strongly to the further acceleration of the temperature rise. One example is more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.
[ precipitable water anomaly ]
Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.
[ temperatures keep rising, despite La Niña, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.29°C on January 26, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
The 2024 global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average, according to WMO’s consolidated analysis of six datasets.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Differences between datasets are mainly due to the ways temperatures are measured, e.g. ERA5 measures the temperature of the air above oceans, whereas NASA and NOAA measure the surface temperature of the water, which is lower. There can also be differences in how temperatures are measured in areas with sea ice - the sea ice can be measured, or the water underneath the sea ice, or the air above the sea ice. Also, in some areas there once was sea ice that has meanwhile disappeared. Different ways of measuring things can raise the temperature record by as much as 0.2°C and even more in case of earlier years, where the margin of error is also larger.
Importantly, the temperature rise in the above image is compared to the period 1850-1900, which is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly may already have been above the 2°C threshold in 2015, when politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged that this threshold wouldn't be crossed.
“Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot", UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres says: “It is important to emphasize that a single year of more than 1.5°C for a year does NOT mean that we have failed to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals, which are measured over decades rather than an individual year", WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo adds.
However, for this argument to hold, the average anomaly would need to fall to under 1.5°C from now. Should we really have to wait for another decade or two, before a confirmation is allowed to be issued that 1.5°C has been crossed. Isn't such a mandate part of downplaying how dire the situation is, an effort to delay the necessary action? Moreover, does such a mandate make sense?
To illustrate this point, the above image uses NASA anomalies (blue dots) that are conservatively compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base, with data going back to 2010. The image thus shows a 30-year review period centered around January 1, 2025. Eight imaginary years of data have been added beyond existing data, extending the trend into the future (yellow dots). The wide pink trend is based on both NASA existing data and these imaginary data, jointly covering data from 2010-2032. The narrow black trend is not based on imaginary data, it is purely based on existing data, from 2010-2024, showing the potential for such a trend to eventuate when using existing (i.e. past) data only.
In case such a trend would indeed eventuate, confirmation of the crossing of the 1.5°C threshold should NOT be delayed until all the years of a 30-year period have been entirely completed. In fact, 2°C (vs 1951-1980) would already be crossed early 2026. In the course of 2032, a 16°C rise would be reached, while the average anomaly for the period 2010-2032 would be higher than 3°C (vs 1951-1980) with still 7 years to go before the 30-year period would be completed.
Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the update of the image below with daily data and added trends.
[ Temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.28°C on January 24, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
Human extinction at 3°C
If the temperature does indeed keep rising rapidly, the anomaly compared to pre-industrial may soon be higher than 3°C, implying that humans are already functionally extinct, especially if no decisive, comprehensive and effective action is taken.
Analysis by Shona and Bradshaw (2019) finds that, due to co-extinction, global biodiversity collapse occurs at around 5°C heating, as discussed in this 2019 post. The post adds the warning that a rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026, and that humans who depend on many other species will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.
A recent study by Joseph Williamson et al. finds that many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur.
Antarctic sea ice
Antarctic sea ice is losing thickness, as illustrated by the images below, showing thickness from August 27, 2024, to January 21, 2025.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Measuring polar temperatures
As mentioned above, different ways of measuring polar temperatures can lead to different results. The combination image below illustrates that using a different smoothing radius for Arctic measurements can result in different anomalies. Gray areas signify missing data. Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100 km of a reporting land station.
The image below shows December 2024 Arctic temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980 using ERA5 data.
The above image raises the question as to what caused the low anomalies over Greenland and Baffin Bay, compared to the rest of the Arctic. This could be caused by changes to wind and ocean currents.
Changes to wind and ocean currents
The increase in the Earth's energy imbalance results in an increase in kinetic energy in the atmosphere and oceans, i.e. stronger wind and stronger ocean currents, both in longitudinal and latitudinal directions. An earlier post points at a study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.
While the wind overall is strengthening, the wind mainly appears to be strengthening in latitudinal directions. The Coriolis Effect contributes to that, but strengthening of latitudinal winds appears to be getting stronger over the years. Loss of sea ice at the poles comes with loss of albedo, a self-reinforcing feedback that contributes to polar amplification of the temperature rise, which contributes to the reasons why longitudinal wind is not strengthening as much as latitudinal wind.
Polar amplification narrows the difference in temperature between the Equator and the Poles, which results in a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles (longitudinal wind). This causes changes in both wind patterns and ocean currents, such as deformation of the Jet Stream, slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and changes in ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat from the Southern Ocean closer to Antarctica and from there to the deeper ocean.
Deformation of the Jet Stream can cause cold air from the Arctic to descend deep over the continents.
[ temperature of -37°C in Colorado ]
The image on the right shows that a temperature of -37.0°C (or -34.7°F) was recorded in Colorado on January 21, 2025 (07:00 UTC).
Very low North American temperatures occurred, while sea surface temperatures kept increasing. Such conditions can strongly increase the temperature difference between land and sea, especially during the northern summer. This can in turn further strengthen latitudinal wind.
On January 25, 2025 07:00 UTC, wind at 250 hPa (Jet Stream) at the green circle is forecast to reach a speed of 401 km/h and wind power density of 271.3 kW/m².
[ strong wind over the North Atlantic, click on images to enlarge ]
While such conditions vary with the weather, all such mechanisms can contribute to strengthening wind speed, especially in latitudinal directions, as illustrated by the image below.
The above image shows the wind speed anomaly in December 2024 at 250 hPa (Jet Stream). The image below shows how this keeps cold air in December 2024 at 250 hPa over elevated land in the Arctic in place, thus keeping temperatures low over Greenland and Baffin Island.
As temperatures rise, stronger horizontal (latitudinal) wind will result in more heat accumulating in the Atlantic ocean, the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean.
At times, though, wind can abruptly and dramatically strengthen in vertical (longitudinal) direction. This can be facilitated by geological features, e.g. in the North Atlantic, there is an easy pathway northward from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean. At times, the wind and ocean currents along this path can be accelerated by weather conditions such as storms and hurricanes.
As an example, the above image shows a forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, of strong wind at 250 hPa over the North Atlantic. The image below shows a forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, of temperature anomalies.
As temperatures rise, a lot of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface. Much of that heat can be pushed abruptly into the Arctic by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward. Accordingly, this can cause a huge temperature peak in the Arctic. Similar hazards apply to the water and sea ice around Antarctica.
The impact of extreme weather events can be missed in climate models that average away peaks in temperature and wind strength. However, wind peaks can contribute to massive storm damage, flooding and fire hazards. The joint impact of high temperature peaks and high humidity can cause fatal heat stress. High temperatures and strong wind can also cause a sudden decline of sea ice that can contribute to cause huge amounts of methane to erupt abruptly from the seafloor, in turn contributing strongly to temperature rises that are not foreseen in many climate models.
Arctic sea ice
Meanwhile, ocean heat keeps increasing, resulting in melting of sea ice from below. The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent through January 19, 2025.
[ Arctic sea ice extent, click on images to enlarge ]
During the first few months of the year, Arctic sea ice is still growing in extent. In the above image, the red line and red marker shows 2025 sea ice extent. Dots mark Arctic sea ice extent on January 19 for the respective year and Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on January 19, 2025, despite La Niña conditions.
A new El Niño may emerge in the course of 2025, while both Arctic sea ice extent and volume are at record low, while numerous self-reinforcing feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity and while further mechanisms drive up temperatures such as high sunspots. Such a combination of mechanisms could cause a huge temperature rise and a Blue Ocean Event in 2025, threatening huge amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor.
[ Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomaly, click to enlarge]
[ Arctic sea ice volume, click on images to enlarge]
The above image shows a green circle south of Svalbard with a 5.1°C sea surface temperature on January 18, 2025, 3.4°C higher than 1981-2011.
High ocean temperatures result in low Arctic sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image on the right and as discussed in this earlier post.
Guy McPherson discussed the consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the video below, adding that "a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control. The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth.
I’m not a fan."
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
The above images, adapted from University of Bremen and ClimateReanalyzer.org, illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) and of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 9, 2025, and the sea ice concentration on January 9, 2025.
The compilation image below shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 5, 2025, when the sea surface temperature off the coast of East Antarctica was 1.6°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly from 1981-2011 of 1.8°C (image right).
[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 5, 2025, click on images to enlarge ]
Changes to ocean currents can contribute to more heat accumulating at the ocean surface and underneath the surface, resulting in more Antarctic sea ice melting from below and losing thickness. Where the temperature of the (saline) ocean water rises above -1.8°C (28.7°F), the sea ice will start melting away from below.
[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 8, 2025, click on images to enlarge ]
The above compilation image shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 8, 2025, when the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean was 22.5°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly of 5.2°C compared to 1981-2011 (image right).
The above image shows zonal mean ocean temperature trends down to 2000 m, from Cheng et al.
The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.
High temperatures despite La Niña
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.
[ temperature anomaly colored by ENSO values, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are strongly present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived.
Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.23°C on January 10, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends in the image below. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
[ temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added ]
The image below, created with NASA data through December 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomalies have been above 1.5°C compared to this base for 18 consecutive months (from July 2023 through December 2024). The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.
[ monthly temperature anomalies compared to 1903-1924 ]
The image below shows that temperature anomalies for the past two years (2023 and 2024) have been at least 1.5°C above this custom 1903-1924. The red line again shows a 2-year Lowess Smoothing trend.
[ 2023 and 2024 temperature anomalies compared to 1903-1924 ]
Note that the 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies may be well above 2°C, as discussed at the pre-industrial page and in many earlier posts such as this one.
Sea surface temperature anomalies are also very high, as high as 8.5°C off the coast of Japan (at the green circle) on January 8, 2025.
[ Sea surface temperature anomaly on January 8, 2025 ]
The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Keep in mind that the last El Niño wasn't even very strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.
[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]
In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots that are higher than expected are peaking in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.
There are numerous additional mechanisms that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise, such as loss of sea ice and changes in ocean currents that could cause oceans to take up less heat and more heat to instead remain in the atmosphere. The dangers increase as sea surface temperatures keep rising.
[ Global Sea surface temperature ]
The Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal temperature peaks are more extreme, could be hit strongly. One of the largest dangers is that huge amounts of methane could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing permafrost. The images above and below illustrate the danger, showing an even steeper rise of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
[ NH Sea surface temperature ]
As temperatures keep rising, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with accelerating ferocity, such as more water vapor in the atmosphere, less lower clouds and changes to wind patterns, further accelerating the temperature rise and contributing to extreme weather disasters hitting the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, the danger of rapidly rising temperatures is particularly high. This can trigger widespread flooding, fires, drought, famine, heat stress, storms and other weather disasters, while crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world.
As illustrated by the above combination image, changes in aerosols could cause temperatures to rise strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular in the Arctic. As industrial activity grinds to a halt, temperatures could rise due to a loss of cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such a as this one.
At the same time, releases of heating aerosols could increase due to more burning of wood and biofuel, more forest fires, peat field fires and urban fires, and more burning of industrial facilities and waste pits. Black and brown carbon cause the air temperature to rise, while they also darken the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.
[ Arctic sea ice volume ]
These mechanisms could jointly cause the global temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial and drive many species (including humans) into extinction by 2026, as has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record low for the time of year. The image on the right, from dmi.dk, shows volume through January 13, 2025 (black arrow points at 2025 Arctic sea ice volume).
High sea surface temperature anomalies are forecast for the Arctic Ocean for August 2025, as illustrated by the image below, from tropicaltidbits.
[ Sea surface temperatures anomalies ]
As illustrated by the image below, very high temperature anomalies forecast over the Arctic Ocean for October 2025.
[ Temperature Anomalies (2 m) ]
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
