Arctic News: El Nino

Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Sea ice loss increases methane danger

Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 16, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

Massive loss of albedo (reflectivity) amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

Less Antarctic sea ice contributes strongly to lower albedo, due to the size of Antarctic sea ice and its proximity to the Equator.

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows that the 36-month running average for the Earth's albedo has meanwhile hit yet another new record low, at 28.689%.

Additional elevation of the global temperature can be expected due to an emerging El Niño.

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice

Sea ice is low at both poles. This results in loss of global albedo, which elevates temperatures. El Niño can be expected to further elevate temperatures in the course of 2026.

Adding to the problems, Arctic sea ice has become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 15, 2026.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Carbon dioxide concentrations typically reach an annual maximum in May. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentrations (surface flasks) as high as 437 ppm recorded half 2025 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Currently, concentrations of greenhouse gases at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. The image below is adapted from an image issued by NOAA January 8, 2026, and shows recent monthly carbon dioxide concentrations as high as 442 ppm.

The image below shows daily measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations from 2020

The above image and the images below are adapted from images issued by NOAA January 6, 2026.

These images show concentrations of greenhouse gases recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The image below shows hourly average methane measurements from 2020.

The image below shows monthly average methane measurements from 2001.

The image below shows monthly average nitrous oxide measurements from 2016.

Temperatures

The image below with NASA Land-Only annual anomalies with respect to 1880-1912 shows that 1.5°C was crossed for all years from 2015 through 2025 (black squares). Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed after 2022 (in 2023, 2024 and 2025) and that 3°C may get crossed soon, as early as in 2031 if this trend continues (dashed extension). Note that the 1880-1912 base is not pre-industrial. Temperature anomalies can be even higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used.

The above image also illustrates how much difference it can make for temperature anomalies on land to go from a La Niña to an El Niño. The year 2022 was a La Niña year and the temperature anomaly on land was less than 1.8°C vs 1880-1912. El Niño conditions prevailed from March 2023 to March 2024, and the temperature anomaly in 2024 was about 0.6°C higher than it was in 2022. This makes one wonder by how much the temperature anomaly will go up compared to 2025, if El Niño conditions will emerge in 2026 and persist into 2027.

The image below illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies more than 1.5°C above 1951-1980 and much more when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating temperatures in 2025.

The above image illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies higher than 1.5°C above 1951-1980. Note that temperature anomalies will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating the temperature in 2025.

As illustrated by the image on the right, the highest temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 occurred over the Arctic Ocean.

This is further illustrated by the image below that shows the NASA 2025 temperature anomaly.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for September 2026.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for October 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over much of the Arctic Ocean.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed the danger of rising temperatures.

The heat in the Arctic also manifested itself in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event recently, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image illustrates how heat rising high up in the atmosphere resulted in temperatures as high as -23°C (-9.5°F) at 10 hPa over Russia at the green circle (globe on the left) on January 10, 2026.
At the same time, this resulted in very low temperatures at surface level. Temperatures of -41°C (41.9°F) were recorded at the green circle (globe on the right).

The image on the right illustrates that low surface (2 meter) temperatures can be expected to persist in January 2026. The image shows a forecast for January 29, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Monday, December 29, 2025

Huge temperature rise in 2026?

[ image from 1991 poster ]

The image on the right was included in a poster featuring at the AGU Fall Meeting in 1991. The image warned about an escalating temperature rise in the Arctic, pointing at a 10°C rise in the Arctic by 2036. The poster warns that this rise threatens to trigger seafloor methane releases resulting in runaway global warming.

Over time, further contributors to the temperature rise have been highlighted with the warning that they could jointly trigger a total potential global temperature rise of 10°C as early as 2026.

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold and it could do so as early as next year (2026), as illustrated by the image on the right. Altogether, the temperature rise from pre-industrial could be more than 18.44°C by the end of 2026.

[ see the Extinction page ]

The barchart on the right conceptually dates back to 2016, when a strong El Niño came with a strong temperature rise. When expressed by means of a polynomial trend that was extended by a decade, the trend pointed at a 10°C rise by 2026.

The barchart has basically remained the same over the past ten years, be it that the historic temperature rise from pre-industrial has turned out to be larger (pink) and that the cloud feedback could add a further 8°C to the rise (grey). Also, for clarity, aerosols have been split up into on the one hand sulfates (green) and on the other hand carbon monoxide, black & brown carbon and non-methane volatile organic carbon (brown).

Importantly, posts have over time pointed out that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

With the year 2026 approaching fast, it is time to have another look at how fast and by how much temperatures could rise. The danger of a strong El Niño emerging in 2026 is highlighted below and this could come at a time when emissions are high, Earth's albedo is low and both land and ocean sinks are losing their capacity to take up carbon dioxide and heat.

[ from earlier post ]

The image below shows how, over the course of the year, temperature anomalies in 2023, 2024 and 2025 each have at times reached the highest daily records, even though 2025 wasn't an El Niño year. The image shows temperature anomalies from 1940 through to December 29, 2025, compared to 1991-2020, which isn't pre-industrial.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below, from an earlier post, shows NASA Land Only monthly temperature anomalies (black squares) with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through November 2025 and shows the 1.5°C threshold crossed for all months since 2022. The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2028 if this trend continues (dashed extension). The picture could look even worse when a genuinely pre-industrial base was used and a polynomial trend was applied and extended.

[ Potential Land-only rise, from earlier post ]

As said, the image at the top shows very high temperatures in 2025, even though 2025 wasn't an El Niño year. In other words, current temperatures are suppressed. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C. This is illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, that shows a temperature rise of more than 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, when the last El Niño had not yet even started.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

How deep into La Niña conditions are we at the moment? Sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) are indicative for El Niño/La Niña conditions. The image below shows the location of that region (square on the globe, inset) and graphs with the sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region for each of the days of the years from 1981 through December 27, 2025.

The image below shows a graph with temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region from 1950 through November 2025, when the anomaly was -0.68°C.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

NOAA considers a La Niña event to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and is forecasted to persist for three consecutive months, while an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña must also be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

[ from an earlier post ]

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The graph below, adapted from tropicaltidbits, uses CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System) data showing an anomaly of -1.272°C on Dec 28, 2025. The graph gives another idea as to how deep we have descended into La Niña conditions.

The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies (in blue) in the Niño3.4 region in the Central Pacific on December 28, 2025.

[ from earlier post ]

How large could the temperatures rise be?

Sea ice is low at both poles. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice on December 31, 2025. Massive loss of albedo amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevated global temperatures that could persist through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

As discussed above, moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself could make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C. Add up feedbacks and the combined impact could trigger a huge temperature rise, since the rise is already accelerating, due to the self-amplifying nature of feedbacks such as albedo loss and more water vapor in the atmosphere, and due to further feedbacks that come with the temperature rise itself such as ocean stratification.

[ image from earlier post ]

[ from earlier post ]

Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in air temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean could also rise up and commit Earth to further additional surface warming in the future.

The image on the right illustrates how the temperature rise can cause oceans to take up less heat, resulting in more heat remaining in the atmosphere.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 30, 2025.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

The methane danger is further illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 31, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• AGU poster

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/agu-poster.html

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - ENSO sea surface temperatures
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/sst

• ECMWF
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

Sunday, September 14, 2025

El Nino 2026, extinction?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that fluctuates from El Niño to La Niña conditions and back. El Niño raises temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. This year, there have been neutral to La Niña conditions, as illustrated by the image below, which also shows that over the past few months, there has been a zigzag pattern of rises and falls around the mean sea surface temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On September 13, 2025, the temperature reached an anomaly in this area of -0.54°C versus 1991-2020, indicating that La Niña conditions are likely to dominate late 2025/early 2026. The inset on the above image shows the Niño 3.4 area and sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favoring La Niña late 2025/early 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]

The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows an ENSO forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through August 2026, indicating that the next El Niño may emerge early 2026 and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

Rising temperature in absence of El Niño

Critical is the temperature on land, which is after all where people live. The image below shows that in 2025, monthly temperature anomalies (from 1880-1920) on land have fallen from a high of +2.93°C in January 2025 to +1.45°C in July 2025, in line with the temperature suppression that comes with a move into La Niña.

The anomaly was +2.93°C in January 2025, very close to +3°C. Note that when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies can be much higher than depicted in the above image. While anomalies have come down somewhat, the anomaly rose again to +1.82°C in August 2025, which could indicate that acceleration of the temperature rise is overwhelming the temperature suppression that comes with a move into La Niña.

The sea surface temperature anomaly keeps rising, in particular from the latitudes of 30° and higher north, as illustrated by the image below.

Adding to fears that the temperature rise is accelerating despite the absence of El Niño is the most recent rise of the global temperature anomaly. As illustrated by the image below, the global temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 has risen strongly recently, from +0.21°C on July 4, 2025, to +0.83°C on September 20, 2025.

A +3°C temperature rise constitutes an important threshold, since humans will likely go extinct with such a rise, as illustrated by the image below.

[ from the post When will humans go extinct? ]

[ from: When Will We Die? ]

Recent research led by David Fastivich finds that, historically, vegetation responded at timescales from hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but not at timescales shorter than about 150 years. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt - far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapidly warming world.

Note that healthy vegetation relies not only on temperature, but also on the presence of good soil, microbes, rain, soil nutrients, pollinators, habitat, groundwater and an absence of toxic waste, pests and diseases.

A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). Humans, who depend on a lot of other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in the earlier post When Will We Die?

The map below shows the size of the population rather than the size of the territory, decreasing the size of Canada, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia, and highlighting how many people are vulnerable to heat stress.

[ cartogram from Ourworldindata.org - click to enlarge ]

In the video below, Herb Simmens discussed the situation with Peter Carter and Paul Beckwith.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to decreases in buffers (as described in earlier posts such as this one), due to strengthening feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, which are all developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks.

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• ECMWF - El Niño forecast
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

• NASA - surface temperature analysis - gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Population cartogram
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10163232140864679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html