Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Sea surface temperatures and El Niño

The upcoming El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 6, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceed 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 6, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approaching 4°C for part of the mean. 

The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America), where a rise of more than 3.5°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to more than +2.2°C in the bottom image) occurred within six months through June 7, 2026.

Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions this high indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as also illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and with a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows the June 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.

The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

High sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Ocean on May 22, 2026. 

The above image highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 22, 2026, in three areas: 5.3°C off the coast of South America, 4.6°C off the coast of California and 5.4°C off the coast of Asia.

The image below highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 29, 2026, in four areas: 7.2°C off the coast of France, 8.1°C off the coast of Asia, 5.3°C off the coast of South America, and 6.3°C off the coast of South Africa.

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of subsurface ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The image below shows that on June 5, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 5, 2026, with the Niño3.4 region highlighted. On June 5, 2026, the sea surface temperature in Nino3.4 was 29.79°C, a jump of 3.52°C from the 25.75°C on January 9, 2026, in a span of less than 5 months.

SST were higher only when a super El Niño developed in November 2015, as marked on the above image. Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record, as discussed in an earlier post. 

On June 4, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (inset also shows anomalies) was 20.98°C, the highest temperature on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Note that there were La Niña conditions earlier in 2026, which suppressed temperatures, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year. In the remainder of 2026, El Niño conditions are likely to be dominant, elevating temperatures. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

As illustrated by the image below, a temperature of 52.1°C or 125.7°F was forecast in Pakistan on May 28, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

SSP5-8.5 scenario

In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, radiative forcing is projected to increase to 8.5 W/m² by 2100. Below are the IPCC projections for CO₂ concentration and temperature change for the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

The image below shows the CO₂ concentration over the last 31 days at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The hand points at a daily CO₂ concentration of 433.95 parts per million (ppm) recorded on May 1, 2026.

Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Rising temperatures are threatening to cause dramatic loss in sea ice. Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.

The animation below shows the sea ice at the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through 6, 2026. 

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance and in ocean heat is outpacing SPSS5-8.5, as illustrated by the combination image below, by Leon Simons.

As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.06 million km² on June 6, 2026 (black), 2nd lowest extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.94σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice extent in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice extent in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño. Arctic sea ice extent can be expected to soon reach record low extent for the time of year as temperatures rise with the upcoming El Niño.

The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 7, 2026, as it has been for years. 

As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice extent was 22.27 million km² on June 6, 2026, second lowest global extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -4.56σ. Highlighted in black is 2026, highlighted in purple is 2023 and highlighted in blue is 2025, until now the record low year for global sea ice extent.

The map below shows an update of an earlier forecast for November 2026 with temperature anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean at the top of the scale (13°C), adapted from tropicaltidbits.com.

These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean suggests strong sea ice decline, with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, coming with huge albedo changes and loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise. There are further developments that can contribute to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post.

The map above, from an earlier post, and the map below show forecasts for December 2026 and January 2027, respectively, with temperature anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean exceeding 10°C, based on SSP5-8.5 or what used to be called the "worst-case scenario". 

Ominously, the forecast for January 2027 below, from an earlier post and adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February. 

Is SSP5-8.5 the "worst-case" scenario?

The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario pointing at a temperature rise of 1.661°C in February 2025, of 4.388°C in February 2083 and of 5.163°C in February 2100, when using a 1901-2000 base (temperatures will be higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used).


The map below, from an earlier post, shows the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 rise versus 1881-1920 in February 2100. The map shows that the temperature rise in areas on land (where most people live) could be as much as 8°C higher in Feb 2100 in the SSP585 model.

The map warns that temperatures over large parts of the Arctic may be more than 20°C higher than 1881-1920 in February 2100. This would suggest that by 2100 the snow and ice cover in the Arctic will have declined dramatically and that huge amounts of greenhouse gases will likely have been released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. 

The CMIP6 emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) did not fully include the potential impact of bad climate policy and of feedbacks such as seafloor methane eruptions and loss of lower clouds. For "even-worse-than-SSP5-8.5" scenarios, have a look at the potential for a global temperature rise of more than 20°C by 2050 discussed in this 2013 post and the potential for a 18.44°C rise by the end of 2026 discussed in this recent post. 

The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections, e.g. data from Copernicus' Methane Hotspot Explorer shows that the largest methane emission event in October 2024 occurred from an urban landfill in Kazakhstan, while the top seven methane emission events included landfills, oil and coal, but not natural gas operations, as illustrated by the image below. 

Temperatures have risen due to human activities over thousands of years. Over the years, the focus of these activities has shifted four times and a fifth shift is coming up.
1. Moving away from hunting and gathering toward herding animals and agriculture.
2. Moving to cities, where people found work in factories (the Industrial Revolution).

3. Rising urban services and infrastructure, commuters to and from sprawling suburbs.
4. Avoiding damaging the climate and environment, with a focus on electrifying energy. 

5. A focus on transforming society through renewal of cities, land use and infrastructure. 

The fourth shift is highlighted by the UN's adoption of a resolution that calls on all UN Member States to take all possible steps to avoid causing significant damage to the climate and environment, including emissions produced within their borders, and to follow through on their existing climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. This sends a strong message that tackling the climate crisis is a legal duty under international law, and not just a political choice. The resolution also calls for the UN Secretary-General to submit a report in 2027 on ways to advance compliance with the obligations identified in the International Court of Justice advisory opinion.

The Climate Plan group discusses the fifth shift, i.e transforming society while highlighting the importance of a formal declaration of a climate emergency to raise awareness and to help overcome obstacles that could delay the necessary climate action, with a climate emergency declared globally and with implementation of climate action preferably decided locally provided it is in line with best-available science.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion, Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction, statement issued 14 May 2026 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• IPCC Assessment Report 6 Workgroup 1 Chapter 4 - Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information 
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter04.pdf

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NASA - Worldview 
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Leon Simons - rise in ocean heat and Earth Energy Imbalance 
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mloc6c4bas2v

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

The next El Nino

Arctic sea ice 

Arctic sea ice volume is at a record daily low. It has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 13, 2025. 

The image below shows that the November 2025 Arctic sea ice volume was the lowest on record for the month of November. 

The image below, adapted from an Eliot Jacobson image, shows the annual minima of Arctic sea ice thickness through 2025.

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent was at a record daily low on December 12, 2025. 

Loss of sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in higher temperatures, in a self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image on the right shows Arctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 13, 2025.

Furthermore, loss of Arctic sea ice volume can contribute to a huge rise in temperature as a result of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As Arctic sea ice shrinks in volume, its capacity shrinks to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. As the buffer disappears, the temperature of the water can rise strongly and abruptly, causing heat to penetrate sediments that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas underneath hydrates. Heat penetrating such sediments can destabilize such hydrates, resulting in huge eruptions of methane. 

Such an event could be triggered by wild weather swings resulting from higher temperatures that come with the next El Niño that is likely to emerge and strengthen in the course of the year 2026. 

Global sea ice

The image below shows that the global sea ice extent was 3.2 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on December 15, 2025, the second lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.9σ.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies from January 1979 through December 12, 2025. Satellite data are from NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS and JAXA AMSR2. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a 1981-2010 base. 

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice. From earlier post. ]

The above image shows that the Antarctic sea ice extent anomaly remained relatively stable for many years, but gradually increased during the period from 2007 to 2015. 

This increase can be attributed to rising temperatures from 2007 resulting in stronger wind spreading the sea ice and stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean coming with increased snowfall on top of the sea ice accompanied by increased meltwater, which initially lowered salinity of the sea surface, enabling sea ice to spread wide. 

Meanwhile, stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean also increased snowfall over Antarctica, where a significant part of the snow has remained on top of the snow cover.

Eventually, in 2015, this and rising temperatures started to overwhelm the earlier impact and increasingly stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean started to contribute to make the sea surface more salty, resulting in more rapid melting of the sea ice. 

This is illustrated by the forecast for December 28, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline) on the right. 

It is further illustrated by the image on the right that shows a forecast for December 29, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

The image below shows a forecast for December 28, 2025, of the global precipitablewater anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

This is a self-amplifying feedback, in that saltier water at the ocean surface also draws up more heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow. Increasing amounts of heat and CO₂ that were previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, threaten to instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise. 

Many of these feedbacks such as changes in salinity and stratification have been discussed in earlier post such as this one.

The increase in snowfall on Antarctica is also illustrated by the image below that shows the accumulated precipitation anomaly (in percentage, versus 1951-1980) for the 12-month period from December 2024 through November 2025 (ECMWF ERA5 Data, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org. 

A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) shows that, over the years, the Southern Ocean surface has become more hot and salty.

The combined impact of these feedbacks can accumulate and strike rapidly. Feedbacks include the impact of sea ice decline (latent heat buffer loss + albedo loss), of the water vapor feedback, of increased stratification and salinity of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean, of heat entering the atmosphere from the ocean and of less heat getting transferred from the air to the depths of the ocean, and - as temperature rise - of triggering additional feedbacks such as loss of lower clouds and thus additionally causing more heat to be absorbed by the surface as less sunlight is getting reflected back into space.

[ from earlier post ]

Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in air temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean could also rise up and commit Earth to further additional surface warming in the future.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the poles, resulting in a relative slowdown in speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles.

This slowdown impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream.

As illustrated by the combination image below, surface temperatures of the sea around Antarctica off the coast of Wilkes Land were as high as 1.9°C or 35.4°F on December 16, 2025 (at the green circle, globe right), an anomaly of 3.1°C or 5.5°F (at the circle, globe left). 

Sea ice cannot survive such high temperatures for long. The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Sea ice starts melting as soon as the temperature rises to -1.8°C (28.76°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature stays below 0°C (32°F). In very salty water, sea ice will start melting at sea surface temperatures of -2°C (28.4°F). Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). 

As illustrated by the image below, the air temperature was -1.2°C or 29.8°F off the coast of Wilkes Land, Antarctica (green circle), on December 14, 2025 (03:00 UTC).

Both sea ice extent and concentration are currently low at both poles, contributing to high temperatures, since less sunlight gets reflected back into space and is instead absorbed by the surface. This spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which is expected to reach its minimum in February 2026.

The image on the right shows Antarctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, with the danger that this will in turn trigger an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026.

The combination image below shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, by the University of Bremen (left) and by NSIDC (right). The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange. 

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on December 15, 2025. 

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Also, there must be an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months. 

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026. 

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

Moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself can make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

Methane

The methane danger is illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 13, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.



The methane danger is discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost can add significantly and abruptly to the temperature rise.  

Temperature rise

The image below shows the November 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, based on ERA5 data. 

The Land-Only temperature anomaly versus 1880-1920 through November 2025 shows 1.5°C crossed for most months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2023 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2030 if this trend continues (dashed extension).

Sure, the 1880-1920 base used in above image is not pre-industrial. An even more scary picture emerges when calculating the NASA Land Only temperature anomalies with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through November 2025, as done in the image below, which shows the 1.5°C threshold crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2028 if this trend continues (dashed extension). 

Notes:
• Land-only? Using land-only anomalies is important, since most people do live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. When calculating the anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on land only, the anomaly will be even higher. The two images below show a 0.5°C difference between the global anomaly and the anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere for the November 2025 anomaly.

• 1880-1890 base? The 1880-1890 base is not pre-industrial, yet it is more illustrative than NASA's default 1951-1980; when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, temperature anomalies are likely to be even higher (see also the boxes on the image below). 
• Red dashed line stops in 2028? The red dashed line stops in 2028 as it points at 3°C (top dotted line) crossed in 2028, which is an important threshold as humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in an earlier post.  

• Lowess trend? The Lowess trend is used by NASA by default. The dashed red line is a linear extension of the Lowess trend and points at 3°C threshold crossed in 2028, but a non-linear trend and its extension may point at an even earlier year (see also this comment).  

• NASA image? The background image is a screenshot of an image custom-made at data.giss.nasa.gov by Sam Carana; the blue textbox and the dashed and dotted lines are added for clarity.
• Timeline from 2022 to 2030? The timeline starts at 2022 as the image shows the 1.5°C threshold (bottom dotted line) to be crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares) and the Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold (middle dotted line) was crossed in 2022. The timeline stops at 2030, as many politicians plan for emissions by people to continue to 2030 (and beyond), even though there may be no humans left by then, as the image illustrates. 

• La Niña/El Niño? While the 2025 anomalies were reached in the absence of El Niño conditions elevating temperatures, the next El Niño may emerge in the course of 2026 (see above).

The November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980. The anomaly would be significantly higher when calculated from 1850-1900 (the period typically used by the IPCC as base), and even higher when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

[ update of image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The Northern Hemisphere November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.82°C higher than 1951-1980, and 0.5°C higher than the global anomaly, as illustrated by the image below.  

The above images also include boxes with a diagram and associated text from an earlier post, with more details regarding the size of the historic temperature rise and of the rise to come soon. 

Clearly, the Northern Hemisphere Land Only temperature anomaly is a lot higher than the global temperature anomaly, which is important since most people live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

The image below illustrates the schism between the Climate Plan and the Status Quo. 

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• ClimateReanalyzer.org

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Prediction

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

also discussed on Facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163589670899679

• ECMWF

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

• Zach Labe - Antarctic sea ice extent and concentration 

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration

• Saltier water, less sea ice

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/saltier-water-less-sea-ice.html

• The danger of abrupt eruptions of seafloor methane

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-danger-of-abrupt-eruptions-of-seafloor-methane.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html