Showing posts with label Arctic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arctic. Show all posts

Friday, September 4, 2026

Water near North Pole

Water is visible near the North Pole, as illustrated by the satellite image below, dated September 4, 2026.


With much water being visible near the North Pole, Arctic sea ice volume is currently not the lowest for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

Why isn't Arctic sea ice volume currently at a record low? There still is a lot of relatively thick sea ice present North of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 7, 2026. 


Rising temperatures and distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events to become more extreme. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). As illustrated by the combination image below, this can cause more snow to fall over the Arctic Ocean, which can thicken the sea ice or contribute to more freshwater at the surface. 

[ Forecasts for September 5, 2026. Click on images to enlarge ]
Stronger heatwaves and storms over land can also cause increasingly larger amounts of freshwater to get added to the surface of the Arctic Ocean in the form of water from rivers and from runoff from land, as illustrated by the image below. Less salty water can contribute to a temporary slowing down of Arctic sea ice melting, but given the speed at which the ocean heat keeps rising, such a slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and huge melting of sea ice threatens to return with a vengeance, i.e. abruptly, as sea surface temperatures keep rising in line with the 2026 El Niño. 


Temperatures of the sea surface are very high, as much as 13°C or 23.3°F higher than 1981-2011 on September 4, 2026, in the Gulf of Ob (green circle on the above image). The image also shows that the cold area that was previously visible south of Greenland got overwhelmed by the huge rise in ocean heat, as the 2026/2027 El Niño keeps gaining in strength and as Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons. 


The absorbed incoming solar radiation (the black line in the above image, but orange in the image below) is increasing rapidly, due to albedo loss, while outgoing longwave radiation (the red line in the above image, but black in the image below) is decreasing proportionally, due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Further gases, aerosols and feedbacks can make things worse. The result is an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth, referred to as Earth's Energy Imbalance. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (red in the image below) and shows where the extra energy is going (in percentages).


According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.

More ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean subsequently threatens to cause abrupt destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.

Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006)
Warm water can cause melting of the ice that is held in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., featured in an earlier post. Hydrates can be present at the end of conduits leading to Pingos that were formed in the sediment where methane did escape from hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the ice in the Pingos and conduits, destabilizing hydrates and resulting in huge abrupt releases of methane from the hydrates, as well as from methane held in the form of free gas underneath such hydrates.

The huge amount of ocean heat present in the Pacific Ocean at the Equator is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, with subsurface temperature anomalies of +10.0°C at 100 m depth. 


In the Atlantic Ocean, slowing down of AMOC can cause less warm water to flow at the sea surface of the North Atlantic into the Arctic ocean. However, the rising ocean heat is not disappearing, but more heat is instead accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean. The danger is that, as more heat rises to the surface, a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of the accumulated ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, a freshwater lid is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, facilitating warm, salty water to be carried underneath this freshwater lid into the Arctic Ocean.


The above combination image shows the situation on September 3, 2026, with Arctic sea ice concentration in the panel on the left, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the panel on the right, with a 0.6°C higher temperature than 1981-2011 highlighted at the green circle near the North Pole. 


The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 7, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and on September 6, 2026, by NSIDC (right), with the orange line indicating the median ice edge 1981-2010. 


The sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N) was 21.09°C on September 6, 2026, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from Copernicus, an anomaly of +0.69° compared to 1991-2020. The map (inset, top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026.

Teleconnections: High temperatures in Tropics contributing to Antarctic sea ice decline

The image below shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.


The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.


The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the Tropics through September 1, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.23°C or 79.21°F, an anomaly of 1.3°C or 2.34°F versus 1979-2000. The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 1, 2026 with the Tropics highlighted.


Sea surface temperatures are high and this contributes to Antarctic sea ice decline. Additionally, there is another mechanism contributing to the decline of Antarctic sea ice. At this time of year, the temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and over East Antarctica, so temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole can be very large. As a result, there can be strong wind patterns driving warm, moist air in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica, on the way taking up more moisture evaporating from the Southern Ocean. This can cause snow to fall over parts of Antarctica, thickening the snow and ice cover on Antarctica, while increasing the salt content of the Southern Ocean surface. Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 5, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right). Low concentration of the sea ice and of the snow and ice cover on land lowers albedo, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed by Antarctica and by the sea ice around Antarctica.

On September 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.27 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.39σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.


Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become even stronger. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February, but this time most sea ice may be gone earlier, as the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record, which could devastate the sea ice over the coming months. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview 
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026



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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Record high sea surface temperature causing global devastation

The global surface air temperature was 16.96°C or 62.53°F on August 26, 2026, 1°C or 1.8°F higher than 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record for the time of year. The map (top right) shows the August 26, 2026, global surface air temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020.


The sea surface temperature was 21.11°C or 70°F on August 24, 2026, the highest temperature on record and 0.68°C or 1.224°F higher than 1991-2020, as illustrated by the image below. The map (top right) shows the August 24, 2026, sea surface temperature versus 1991-2020.


The record high sea surface temperature is having a devastating impact, with extreme weather events occurring around the world. The outlook is that things will get even worse, since the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record.


On August 26, 2026, the global sea ice area was 15.70 million km², the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.84σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. 

Arctic

The image below, from NASA Worldview, shows that water is visible less than 60 km or 37.28 miles from the North Pole on August 29, 2026.


Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. Water is visible near the North Pole on the August 31, 2026, image below (Arctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen, the panel on the left), while the panel on the right shows Arctic sea ice concentration by NSDIC. The orange line shows the median ice edge 1981-2010 for this day. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 1, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and Climate Reanalyzer (right). 


The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 2, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and Climate Reanalyzer (right). 


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean on August 27, 2026. 


The image below shows a surface temperature of 5.1°C or 41.2°F on Greenland on August 28, 2026 (circle). 


The image below shows a forecast for December 2026 of the temperature anomaly under a CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario.  


Under this scenario, radiative forcing is projected to reach 8.5 W/m² by 2100, which would come with temperature anomalies as illustrated by the image below.


Antarctic

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 31, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right). The orange line shows the median ice edge 1981-2010 for this day.


On August 26, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 12.71 million km², the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.80σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple. 


As El Niño increases in strength, global sea ice area looks set to get lower and lower in the course of 2026, while feedbacks, including albedo loss, loss of lower clouds and increases in water vapor, kick in with greater ferocity, further contributing to acceleration of the temperature rise. 

The image below shows a sea surface temperature forecast for January 2027, indicating that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss.


The danger is that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur, in the Arctic in 2026, and subsequently in the Antarctic in early 2027, triggering numerous additional feedbacks, including eruption of methane from the seafloor and release of ocean heat into the atmosphere. 

The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.

[ image from earlier post ]
Colored in red on the above image is an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of loss of Antarctic sea ice. While this extra forcing applied only to parts of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, it is a big deal, considering that all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019 amounted to an extra radiative forcing of +2.16 W/m² globally, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center 

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger 


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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Emissions are not falling

Temperature rise

For many years, alarms have been raised about the accelerating temperature rise. Forest fires and methane releases in the Arctic contribute strongly to the acceleration of the temperature rise and to the danger that the clouds tipping point may get crossed soon, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.54°C on July 20, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.34°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.


On July 25, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.16°C, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.96°C higher than 1982-2010, a record high anomaly versus 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 25, 2026.


Ocean heat in the Northern Hemisphere constitutes the primary cause of Arctic sea ice decline, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. In a publication issued July 13, 2026, NOAA announced El Niño to be present, adding that the 2026 El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year. The 2026 El Niño, on top of the accelerating temperature rise, threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as well as loss of virtually all Antarctic sea ice in early 2027, as also illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomaly forecast below for January 2027, a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

[ image from earlier post ]
Clearly, politicians must take drastic action that includes action to increase resilience and action to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Sadly, it appears that politicians are not taking the necessary action and that - as a result - emissions are rising.

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]
Greenhouse gases rising

Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising since 1750, as illustrated by the image on the right. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have been rising rapidly, while methane has been rising even more rapidly. 

More methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

The 2026 El Niño is strengthening and sea surface temperatures are already at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing massive eruptions of methane contained in those sediments in the form of methane hydrates and free gas held underneath these hydrates. 

Concentrations of gases

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. While concentrations should be coming down at this time of year due to seasonal changes, recent concentrations are very high, with one recent flask reading exceeding 442 parts per million.


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There is a huge spread in recent readings, which may reflect forest fires. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average methane concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average nitrous oxide concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska. 


Sadly, the images indicate that concentrations of greenhouse gases are not falling, they are rising instead. Forest fires are striking across the globe, which contributes to forests turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources, as discussed in posts such as this one. Furthermore, forest fires come with huge releases of carbon monoxide that deplete hydroxyl, in turn extending the lifetime of methane, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Fossil fuel subsidies and investments 

Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are planning to extract more natural gas. The IEA estimates that around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal in 2026. Natural gas investment is projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade.


The IMF describes two different types of fossil fuel subsidies. Explicit subsidies (when the retail price is below a fuel’s supply cost) and implicit subsidies (when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax). External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily premature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion, accident, and road damage externalities associated with the use of road fuels.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• The 2026 El Niño
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (issued July 13, 2026)
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IMF - Fossil Fuel Subsidies (update April 22, 2026)
https://www.imf.org/en/topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

• IEA - World Energy Investment report 2026 
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Thursday, June 11, 2026

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update

Arctic sea ice

A Blue Ocean Event could be declared when Arctic sea ice reaches or crosses a threshold of 1 million km² in extent.

On June 14, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 10.680 million km², a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The Arctic sea ice extent has been very low in the year to date, despite the dominance of La Niña conditions. The Arctic sea ice extent will continue to fall rapidly as the 2026 El Niño is strengthening. Forecasts indicate that this El Niño will be the strongest on record.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice area was 7.35 million km² on June 22, 2026 (black), lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.60σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice area in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño.


Another measure is Arctic sea ice volume. The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 26, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) after the annual maximum volume was reached. 

The image below, from an earlier post, shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 

In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³. With strong melting taking place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in September 2026.

The danger is also highlighted by the animation below that illustrates that with melting as strong as it was through September 2007, there will be virtually no Arctic sea ice volume left in September 2026.


The animation below, made with NASA images, shows the Arctic sea ice just north of the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through June 10, 2026. This is where some of the thickest Arctic sea ice is located. The animation illustrates that even the thickest sea ice can break up with the pieces getting moved by wind and ocean currents into the Atlantic Ocean where they will melt away.


The combination image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 4, 2026 (left) and on June 18, 2026 (right).


The combination image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on the left and Arctic sea ice thickness on the right, both on June 24, 2026.


The 2026 El Niño 

The upcoming El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approach 4°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4°C for part of the mean.


The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America), where a rise of more than 4.4°C (from -1.6°C in the top image to +2.848°C in the bottom image) occurred within six months through June 21, 2026.


The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and also features in an earlier post. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).


According to NOAA, there is a 97% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and 98% chance of El Niño in January–March 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will be very strong in November 2026-January 2027.


The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño (red), La Niña (blue) and neutral episodes (grey). 


The image below, from an earlier post, shows the June 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
Temperature

The image below shows that on June 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026, with the Niño3.4 region highlighted.

The June 19, 2026, sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.4°C, a jump of 3.65°C in a span of just over 5 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. SST were higher only during the super El Niño in November 2015, as marked on the right of the image. 


The image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026. The temperature of the sea surface was as much as 5.4°C or 9.6°F higher (at the green circle, off the coast of South America) than 1981-2011 on June 19, 2026.


The image below Illustrates that the Arctic temperature was 4.6°C on June 21, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 2.39°C higher than 1979-2000. Peaks reached in earlier years are also marked, for 2016 and for 2023, both El Niño years. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on June 21, 2026, with the Arctic highlighted. 


The image below shows that the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 21.33°C on June 22, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.15°C higher than 1979-2000. The image also shows that a temperature of 22.72°C was reached on August 1, 2023, the highest temperature on record and 1.43°C above 1979-2000. Furthermore, the image shows that a temperature of 22.39°C was reached on July 10, 2016. Both 2016 and 2023 were El Niño years. The inset shows the Northern Hemisphere temperature on June 21, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that the world (60°S-60°N) sea surface temperature was 20.89°C on June 24, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 0.54°C higher than 1991-2020, while El Niño is strengthening. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

An earlier image, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, illustrates that on June 14, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (inset also shows anomalies on June 14, 2026) was 20.98°C, the highest temperature on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which also has marked the years 2023 and 2024, while the year 2025 is colored orange. 


Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Despite La Niña conditions in early 2026, which suppressed temperatures, 2026 SST were close to the record high 2024 SST, when El Niño conditions were present. Meanwhile, 2026 SST have reached the highest temperatures on record for this time of year. 

The combination image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic on June 11, 2026 (left) and on June 16, 2026 (right). The images show many areas with water temperatures high enough for no sea ice to be present. The green circle on the right marks an area where the sea surface temperature is -1.6°C. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The combination image below shows, on the left, temperatures above 0°C forecast over much of the Arctic Ocean including the North Pole for June 17, 2026, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer on the left, and on the right sea ice concentration on June 16, 2026, adapted from NSIDC. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On land in the Northern Hemisphere (where most people live), the average temperature departure from 1901-2000 will rise dramatically with strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA plot below. 


Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically in the course of 2026 for a number of reasons including acceleration of the temperature rise over the years (more than 1°C rise from 2013 as illustrated by the green trend in the above image) and rising strength of the 2026 El Niño.

The image below should act as a warning, illustrating the danger that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperatures on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026 that could cross the 3°C threshold.

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a temperature forecast for January 2027, with high temperature anomalies showing up all over the Arctic Ocean and over areas where currently sea ice is present around Antarctica. This indicates that there will be dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice.


The images below show forecasts for the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from December 2026 through March 2027, further confirming indications that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss. 

SSTA December 2026

SSTA January 2027

SSTA February 2027

SSTA March 2027

Antarctica

The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.

[ image from earlier post ]

Colored in red on the above image is an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of loss of Antarctic sea ice. While this extra forcing applied only to parts of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, it is a big deal, considering that all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019 amounted to an extra radiative forcing of +2.16 W/m² globally (see IPCC image on the right). 

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. 

Loss of Antarctic sea ice causes albedo loss, which can dramatically increase sea surface temperatures of the Southern Ocean. The image below is created with Southern Hemisphere January 2001 through May 2026 NOAA data with a trend added to highlight the danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss.


The danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss is further highlighted by the image below. The image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a 7-day change in sea surface temperature anomalies that is hitting Antarctic sea ice hard.


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on June 10, 2026.


High sea surface anomalies around Antarctica and thinning of Antarctic sea ice are not only due to the strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, but also due to a number of feedbacks that are not only strengthening but that are also amplifying the impact of each other, including:
• loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer,
• acceleration of the global temperature rise,
• stronger evaporation as temperatures rise,
• more water vapor as temperatures rise,
• stronger wind as temperatures rise, and
• rising salt content of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean. The mechanism behind the rise in salinity is discussed below. 

A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.  

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post warns that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.

The image below, from a 2025 study led by Wei Wang, shows that, while Antarctic sea ice has decreased over the past few years, the Antarctic ice sheet has gained mass recently. 


The image below shows Antarctic ice mass change from 2002 through May 15, 2026, by NASA. 


Driven by extratropical cyclones, strong winds can transport heat and moisture from the warmer Southern Ocean deep into the interior of Antarctica, where the water vapor condenses to fuel heavy snowfall events, as warned about in studies such as a 2025 study led by Jonathan Wille and a 2026 study led by Kyohei Yamada and as illustrated by the combination image below showing a forecast for June 2, 2026, for Antartica of temperature anomalies (left) and wind speed (right).


Ominously, the image below shows a relative humidity (RH) of 100% at the location marked by the green circle at 70 hPa over Antarctica on June 18, 2026.


This 70 hPa is a pressure level corresponding with an altitude in the lower stratosphere. RH shows the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor. Below 0°C and at 100% RH, water vapor starts turning into ice crystals that can fall down as snow. 

The image below, also adapted from nullschool.net, shows a relative humidity of 100% on June 18, 2026, at the surface at the location marked by the green circle.


The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows snowfall over Antarctica. The image is a precipitation forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z. 


The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows precipitable water standard deviation anomalies over Antarctica. The image is a forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z. 


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - Climate at a Glance - Time Series

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026

• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
• The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks - by Robert Massom et al. 
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/3271/2026
also discussed on facebook at: 

• University of Bremen - data browser

• Copernicus

• European Union, Copernicus Marine Service Data

• nullschool.net - relative humidity
also discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164364227369679

• Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land - by Wei Wang et al. (2025)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
News release at: 
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1080537

• NASA - Antarctic ice mass variation since 2002
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/ice-sheets

• Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica - by Jonathan Wille et al. (2025)
• Interannual Variations of Precipitation Events at Dome Fuji Station, Antarctica - by Kyohei Yamada et al. (2026) 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD045296
also discussed on facebook at: 
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