Arctic News

Monday, June 12, 2023

Arctic sea ice under threat - update 1

The World daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E) was 16.77°C on June 9, 2023, an anomaly of 0.9°C for that day. The highest temperature on record is 16.92°C, and it was reached on August 14, 2016, and the anomaly for that day was only 0.75°C.

The record high of 16.92° actually was a tie between August 13, 2016, August 14, 2016, and July 24, 2022. That latter date is important, since the record high temperature was reached even while there was a strong La Niña, suppressing the temperature. This time, we're in an El Niño, so we can expect even higher temperatures over the next few weeks.

The highest anomaly on record was reached on February 28, 2016, when there was a strong El Niño and the anomaly was 1.15°C. Note that these anomalies are compared to the mean temperature for that day in NOAA's NCEP CFSv2.

The above image, from an earlier post, uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915 that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

[ image credit: WTF is Happening? An Overview - by Eliot Jacobson ]

The above image shows sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60°N, 0-80°W) depicted as anomalies, reaching about 1.1°C above the 1982-2023 mean on June 10, 2023.

The situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic, as vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost.

The above image shows the same data for sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60°N, 0-80°W) reaching 22.7°C on June 10, 2023 (on the black line), 0.7°C higher than the 22.0°C on June 10, 2022 (on the orange line).

The comparison with 2022 is important, as the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reached a record 24.9°C on Sept. 4, 2022, even while there was a strong La Niña, suppressing the temperature. This time, we have an El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right.

Global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on June 14, 2023, i.e. only 21.42 million km², as illustrated by the image below.

Contributing to this is very low Antarctic sea ice extent. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent up to June 14, 2023. Values in the column on the left are for February 16; Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record minimum on February 16, 2023. Values in the column on the right are for June 14. Highlighted are three years: 2023 (red), 2022 (blue) and 2016 (black). Antarctic sea ice extent was also very low at the end of the year 2016, which was a strong El Niño year, yet extent was even lower at the very end of the year in 2022, even though that was during a La Niña.

The annual Arctic sea ice extent minimum is typically reached in September and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is critical in regard to melting of the Arctic sea ice. The already high sea surface temperature together with the impact of the El Niño make the outlook for Arctic sea ice for September 2023 look grim.

Sea ice concentration is getting lower in many places and there is open water off the Siberian coast and in parts of the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay, as illustrated by the Uni of Bremen image on the right. Rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to trigger massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months.

The image on the right, from polarportal.dk, shows very low Arctic sea ice volume for the time of year on June 13, 2023, already much lower than the volume on the same date for any of the four previous years.

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice in a very vulnerable state on June 11, 2023, even very close to the North Pole (on the left of the image below). Open water is also visible near the Franz Jozef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole (on the right of the image below).

The NASA satellite image on the right provides a closer look at the sea ice near the North Pole on June 14, 2023 (click on images to enlarge).

On the one hand, it's terrible to see open water close to the North Pole so early in the year, yet on the other hand, this may enable ocean heat to escape to the atmosphere and thus delay eruption of seafloor methane (image further below).

The Uni of Bremen image on the right underneath shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 13, 2023.

As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, conditions are dire:

• Earth's energy imbalance is at record high
• emissions are at record high
• greenhouse gas concentrations are at record high
• temperatures are very high, especially in the Arctic

• North Atlantic sea surface temperature is at record high

• sea ice is very vulnerable
• the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to cause:

• heatwaves extending over the Arctic Ocean with

• hot water from rivers entering the Arctic Ocean, with

• storms pushing hot water into the Arctic Ocean, and with

• fires and storms darkening the sea ice

The image on the right shows that carbon dioxide was as high as 427 ppm recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

The image below shows the extent of the deformation of the Jet Stream on June 6, 2023. No less than 26 circular wind patterns (at 250 hPa) are marked on the image, which also shows sea surface temperature anomalies. The Jet Stream is can also be seen crossing the Equator at the bottom of the image.

Furthermore, there are circumstances that could coincide in a cataclysmic alignment: El Niño is on the way, sunspots are higher than predicted and the Tonga submarine volcano did add large amounts of water vapor high into the atmosphere.

All this looks set to jointly result in massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo threatening to trigger eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

[ see the Extinction page ]

Both loss of Arctic sea ice and eruption of seafloor methane constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, thus also accelerating loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America that threatens to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases.

In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse.

The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane.

The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page.

In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration.

In the video below, Jim Massa is interviewed by Sandy Schoelles about the changes taking place in the oceans.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily

• NOAA - The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2

https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov

• Humans may be extinct in 2026

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Pre-industrial

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• WTF is Happening? An Overview - by Eliot Jacobson

https://climatecasino.net/2023/06/wtf-is-happening-an-overview

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Diagnostic Discussions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 - by Sushi Peng et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w

• Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Smoke over North America

High levels of biomass-burning aerosols show up over North America on the above June 7, 2023 06 UTC forecast by Copernicus.

The above satellite image shows the US East Coast, with New York blanketed in a veil of smoke on June 7, 2023.

High levels of carbon monoxide are visible over North America on the above map. Carbon monoxide is forecast to be as high as 8715 parts per billion in Quebec, Canada on June 8, 2023 (at 12:00 UTC, a few hours from now, at the green circle).

The map below shows the location for this measurement in Quebec, Canada on June 8, 2023 (at red marker).

The image below also shows wind at 250 hPa, i.e. the Jet Stream. The circular wind patterns indicate how deformed the Jet Stream is.

The image below, from an earlier post, further illustrates the extent of the deformation of the Jet Stream, showing the Jet Stream on June 6, 2023, with no less than 26 circular wind patterns (at 250 hPa) marked on the image, which also shows sea surface temperature anomalies. The Jet Stream is also crossing the Equator.

As an update, below is a forecast of biomass-burning aerosols for June 14, 2023.

Links

• Copernicus
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Google maps
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Fire
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/fire.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice under threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html

• Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

A Climate of Betrayal

by Andrew Glikson

“All grimly true, but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history –

because there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky)

No words can express the betrayal of humanity and nature as represented by the ease in which originally progressive parties and ‘leaders’ can reverse their original environmental credentials by supporting coal and gas production and export once they are in power. While claims are made of reducing domestic emissions, the export of coal, gas and oil from many parts of the world and the dissemination of greenhouse gases remains high or is rising.

No science fiction has been written exposing an elite of multi-billionaires, corporate executives, arms merchants, media moguls, megalomaniac lunatics and their political mouthpieces pushing humanity and species to extinction. The current promotion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) ensures neither human intelligence nor human sentiments would be able to stem cybernetic insanity.

The inexorable rise of mean global temperatures to above 1.5°C higher than in 1750, at a rate exceeding those of the great mass extinctions of species and, according to the IPCC toward 4°C late in the century, renders extreme consequences for many life forms as a consequence of abrupt weather events and changes in the chemistry of the oceans, including acidification and dissolution of carbonate shells.

As the electronic media diverts attention of people to trivial games, canned laughter, sport carnivals and petty crimes, real criminals squander $trillions on looming wars and billionaire playboys spend the world’s dwindling resources on space rackets, out of the mouth of hungry children. The critical issues of war and peace, the fate of future generations and survival of species are rarely overlooked in ‘democratic’ elections.

A majority of the post-WWII generation and their offspring, trapped opposite fluorescent screens that scream canned laughter, and propagate commercial and political lies, are only dimly aware of the magnitude of even a ‘limited’ nuclear war, where radioactive emanations from a single large city cloud crops and induce famine for many weeks or months.

Consequences of global warming and a nuclear exchange include:

Inundation of coastal cities.
Increasing risks for food production leading to malnutrition.
Many dry regions becoming dryer and wet regions wetter.
Unprecedented heat waves.
Water scarcity in many regions.
Tropical cyclones.
Loss of biodiversity, including coral reefs.

The closest analogy to the environmental disruption during the late Anthropocene (the period during which human had a significant environmental impact on the Earth) include the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary (PETM).

The history of Anthropocene civilizations records regular bloodsheds between tribes and nations out of control, called ‘war’. Intermittent waves of hostility leading to violence and incessant fighting occurred repeatedly since the Neolithic, more recently, continuing since the 16th centuries, culminating with the threat of a nuclear war.

Wars erupt as an expression of manipulated mass unrest, even where little or no ideological gaps exist between rival states. Irrational hate and fear, mostly instilled by vested interests end up in the sacrifice of the lives of millions.

According to the clock of the atomic scientists it is 90 seconds to midnight.

Andrew Glikson

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Arctic sea ice under threat

The above image shows high temperature anomalies over the Arctic on June 3, 2023.

The above image shows sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60N, 0-80W) depicted as anomalies, reaching 1.04°C above 1982-2023 on June 8, 2023. The situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic, as vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost.

The above image shows the same data for sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (0-60N, 0-80W) reaching 22.5°C on June 7, 2023 (on the black line), 0.6°C higher than the 21.9°C on June 7, 2022 (on the orange line).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Sea ice concentration is getting lower in many places and there is open water in parts of the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay, as illustrated by the Uni of Bremen image on the right.

Rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to trigger massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months.

The image on the right, from polarportal.dk, shows very low Arctic sea ice volume for the time of year on June 8, 2023, already much lower than the volume on the same date for any of the four previous years.

The NASA Worldview image below shows, on the left, that Arctic sea ice is very thin on June 4, 2023, with open water close to the North Pole.

On the right of the image below, the Franz Jozef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole.

The image below shows the situation on June 6, 2023.

The image on the right, from the Uni of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 3, 2023.

As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, conditions are dire:

• Earth's energy imbalance is at record high
• emissions are at record high
• greenhouse gas concentrations are at record high
• temperatures are very high, especially in the Arctic

• North Atlantic sea surface temperature is at record high

• sea ice is very vulnerable
• the Jet Stream is strongly deformed