Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Arctic sea ice August 2023

Arctic Ocean heating up

There are at least five mechanisms that cause the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, as described below. 

1. Direct Heat. Heat from sunlight directly reaches the surface, i.e. the sea ice or the water of the Arctic Ocean.

The August 8, 2023, image on the right, from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a 1-3 days forecast of maximum surface temperatures (2m). Heatwaves over land can extend over the Arctic Ocean. 

High levels of emissions and greenhouse gases over the Arctic increase the amount of heat that is reaching the water of the Arctic Ocean and the sea ice. 

The NASA satellite image below shows smoke from forest fires in Canada moving over the Beaufort Sea and over the sea ice on August 6, 2023. 
[ click on images to enlarge ]

A recent study highlights that forest fires can strongly contribute to the temperature rise. Smoke, soot and further aerosols settling on the sea ice also darken the surface, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed (feedback #9 on the feedbacks page). 

The image on the right, from a Copernicus news release dated August 3, 2023, shows the dramatic growth in emissions from fires in Canada up to end July 2023. 

The news release quotes Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service senior scientist, Mark Parrington, who comments: "As fire emissions from boreal regions typically peak at the end of July and early August, the total is still likely to continue rising for some more weeks."

The Climate Reanalyzer image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year of 5.64°C or 42.15°F on August 9, 2023. Earlier, a record temperature of 5.81°C or 42.46°F was reached (on July 27, 2023).

Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent half September, when temperatures in the Arctic fall below 0°C and water at the surface of the Arctic Ocean starts refreezing.


2. Heat from Rivers. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is another way the water is heating up and this is melting the sea ice from the side.

The August 10, 2023, image below, from nullschool.net, illustrates the added impact of heat that is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, with sea surface temperatures as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F recorded at a location where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (at the green circle, where the green arrow is pointing at).


On August 6, 2023, the sea surface was 14.5°C or 26.2°F hotter than in 1981-2011, at a nearby location where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.


The image on the right shows that on August 10, 2023, the sea surface temperature was 17.6°C or 63.7°F at a location where the Lena River in Siberia enters the Arctic Ocean, i.e. 14.2°C or 25.5°F hotter than it was in 1981-2011 (at green circle).

The Lena River flows into the Laptev Sea which is mostly less than 50 meters deep, making it relatively easy for surface heat to reach the seafloor. 

The NOAA image underneath on the right shows sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait as high as 19.2°C or 66.56°F on August 8, 2023.

The image illustrates that the water can heat up strongly where hot water from rivers and run-off from rainwater enters the Bering Strait.

3. Ocean Heat. Yet another mechanism is heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean from other oceans, i.e. from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Sea ice underneath the sea surface is melting from below due to ocean heat. 

An earlier post discusses why we are currently facing record high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

The image below shows how the Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, while sea surface temperatures show up as high as 33.1°C or 91.58°F on August 9, 2023. 


The Gulf Stream is an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as pictured below and discussed at this page. This ocean current is driven by the Coriolis force and by prevailing wind patterns.

[ from earlier post ]

This ocean current contributes to the stronger and accelerating rise in temperature in the Arctic (compared to the rest of the world), which in turn causes deformation of the Jet Stream that can at times cause strong winds that speed up this ocean current, as discussed in earlier post such as this 2017 one. 

[ from earlier post ]

4. Sea ice moving out. The Arctic Ocean is also heating up as sea ice is getting pushed into the Atlantic Ocean. Even the thickest sea ice can break up into pieces and move along with the flow of meltwater from glaciers, ocean currents and/or strong wind.

[ Click on images to enlarge ]
The animation below, created with NASA Worldview satellite images, shows the northern tip of Greenland at the top left of each frame. The green square on the image on the right indicates the area of the animation. It's around Prinsesse Thyra Island in Northeast Greenland National Park. 

This is where typically the thickest sea ice is located. The animation shows the sea ice breaking up and moving out of the Arctic Ocean. What is left of the pieces will eventually melt in the Atlantic Ocean. Pieces of sea ice that are pushed out of the Arctic Ocean reduce the latent heat buffer, as they can no longer consume heat in the Arctic Ocean through melting.  


5. Sea ice sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere

The sea ice used to reach its lowest extent approximately half September. With the change in seasons, air temperatures decrease and sea ice starts increasing in extent at the sea surface. The image below illustrates how, as the Arctic Ocean starts freezing over, less heat will from then on be able to escape to the atmosphere. Sealed off from the atmosphere by sea ice, greater mixing of heat in the water will occur down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in FAQ#21.

[ From the post September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record ]

In October, sea ice has stopped melting and is increasing in extent at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Also, as land around the Arctic Ocean freezes over, less fresh water will flow from rivers into the Arctic Ocean, while hot, salty water will continue to flow into the Arctic Ocean. As a result, the salt content of the Arctic Ocean increases, all the way down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, increasing the danger that ice in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor will melt, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape and enter the atmosphere.

[ Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006) ]
Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates. The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment. Such conduits were formed when some of the methane did escape from such hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast and reach methane hydrates that keep methane in cages of ice. As heat reaches the ice cages, a temperature rise less than 1°C can suffice to destabilize such cages, resulting in a huge abrupt eruption, as the methane expands more than 160 times in volume.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
Further increasing the danger, this return of the sea ice results in less moisture evaporationg from the water, which together with the change of seasons results in lower hydroxyl levels at the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in turn resulting in less methane getting broken down in the atmosphere over the Arctic.

Feedbacks and further developments

More generally, the rapid temperature rise threatens to cause numerous feedbacks to accelerate and further developments to occur such as crossing of tipping points, with the danger that the temperature will keep rising.

In the video below, Peter Carter, Paul Beckwith and Dale Walkonen discuss the situation.


One such feedbacks is the formation and growth of a cold freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables large amounts of salty and relatively hot water to flow underneath this lid and underneath the remaining sea ice, to enter the Arctic Ocean, as discussed earlier here, as well as here and at the feedbacks page.


This further increases the danger of destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.
Conclusion

The situation is dire and the outlook is getting more grim every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and as most recently discussed at Transforming Society.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - Outlook Forecast Maps

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Shortwave absorption by wildfire smoke dominated by dark brown carbon - by Rajan Chakrabarty et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01237-9
discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160935394954679

• Feedbacks

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily 2-meter Air Temperature

• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Charts

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature

• NASA Worldview

• Copernicus news release - 2023 Canada wildfires emissions have already doubled previous annual record (August 3, 2023)
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2023-canada-wildfires-emissions-have-already-doubled-previous-annual-record

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic





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