The image below illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025.
What could cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025? This has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Briefly, such a rise could be triggered by relatively short-term variables such as the upcoming El Niño, high sunspots and extra water vapor in the atmosphere due to the eruption of a submarine volcano. Together, they could raise temperatures by more than half a degree Celsius, triggering the compound impact of further events including feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity and tipping points getting crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point.
Indeed, rising temperatures threaten to cause massive loss of sea ice followed by eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. This threat is further illustrated by the image below.
Indeed, rising temperatures threaten to cause massive loss of sea ice followed by eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. This threat is further illustrated by the image below.
Sea surface temperature
On April 29, 2023, the sea surface off the coast of South America was as much as 6.1°C or 10.9°F hotter than it was in 1981-2011, as illustrated by the image below that also shows a distorted Jet Stream that is stretched out from pole to pole (wind at 250 hPa).
On April 28, 2023, the world sea surface temperature (SST between 60°South and 60°North) had been at 21°C or higher for as many as 38 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.
Sea Surface Temperature North Atlantic
The situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic. Last year (in 2022), North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. Recently (e.g. on April 4, 2023), the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was as much as 0.5°C higher (black line) than in 2022 (orange line).
On April 28, 2023, the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic was 20.6°C, the highest temperature for the time of year in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.
As we're moving into the upcoming El Niño, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more and more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.
Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly
Temperatures have been rising especially fast on land in the Northern Hemisphere, where most people are living. As temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events can be expected that can make life hard, if not impossible, even at higher latitudes.
Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly
Temperatures have been rising especially fast on land in the Northern Hemisphere, where most people are living. As temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events can be expected that can make life hard, if not impossible, even at higher latitudes.
The image below shows monthly anomalies up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on January 1850-March 2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on October 2010-March 2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 3°C in 2024 and a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Note that the image displays anomalies versus 1901-2000, anomalies versus pre-industrial would be significantly higher.
 |
| [ from earlier post ] |
Greenhouse gas levels
CO₂ typically reaches its annual high in May or June, so these records can be expected to be broken over the next few months.
 |
| [ from earlier post ] |
So, adding this 385 ppm CO₂e to 425 ppm CO₂ would leave just 390 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.
Methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA's global marine surface data. As illustrated by an image in an earlier post, monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.
El Niño and further variables
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. El Niño can be expected to reach its full strength within a few years, with a maximum possible in 2026.
Furthermore, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum within years, while the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post.
In the video below, Guy McPherson gives his views.
Extinction
Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic, especially in the North Atlantic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost.
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream.
Rising temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.
 |
| [ from earlier post ] |
 |
| Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page |
 |
| [ see analysis at the Extinction page ] |
Conclusion
A huge temperature rise thus threatens to unfold over the next few years, as illustrated by the image on the right. The annual rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C by 2026, and monthly anomalies could reach even higher.
Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.
This dire situation calls for urgent action as described in the Climate Plan. Reducing emissions alone won't be enough. Carbon also needs to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, through re-/afforestation, through pyrolysis of biowaste with the resulting biochar (and nutrients) returned to the soil and further methods. Even with a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, with changes to food, land use, construction and waste management, and with removal of large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere and oceans, still more action is needed.
Whether action will happen successfully and rapidly enough is indeed a good question, but that question shouldn't be used as an excuse to delay such action, since taking such action simply is the right thing to do.
 |
| [ image from Climate Emergency Declaration ] |
Links
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html
• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html
• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html
• IPCC keeps downplaying the danger even as reality strikes
• Transforming Society
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
