A Proposal for the Prevention of
Arctic Methane Induced Catastrophic
Global Climate Change by Extraction
of Methane from beneath the Permafrost/
Arctic Methane Hydrates and its Storage and
Sale as a Subsidized "Green Gas"
Energy Source
By Malcolm P.R. Light
PhD. UCL
May 27th, 2012
May 27th, 2012
DEDICATION
This proposal is dedicated to my Father and Mother, Ivan and Avril Light,
both meteorologists and farmers who knew about the vagaries of the weather;
and to all our grandchildren whose entire future depends on its successful outcome.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Methane hydrates (clathrates) exist on the Arctic submarine shelf and slope where they are stabilized by the low temperatures and they have a continuous cap of frozen permafrost which normally prevents methane escape (Figure 1 below).
Mean methane concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere showed a striking anomalous buildup between November 1-10, 2008 and November 1-10, 2011 (Figure 2 above)(Yurganov 2012 in Carana, 2012a).
The surface temperature hotspots in the Arctic caused by global warming correlate well with the anomalous buildups of atmospheric methane in the Arctic (Figure 3 right, in Arctic feedbacks in Carana, 2012a).
This indicates that there is a strong correlation between the dissociation of Arctic subsea methane hydrates from the effects of globally warmed seawater and the increasing size and rate of eruptions of methane into the Arctic atmosphere.
This indicates that there is a strong correlation between the dissociation of Arctic subsea methane hydrates from the effects of globally warmed seawater and the increasing size and rate of eruptions of methane into the Arctic atmosphere.
- Methane eruption zones (torches) occur widely in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) (Shakova et al., 2008; 2010), but the largest and most extreme are confined to the region outside the ESAS where the Gakkel "mid ocean" ridge system intersects at right angles the methane hydrate rich shelf slope region (Figure 9 above and Figure 17 right).
The wedge-like opening and spreading of the Gakkel Ridge is putting the formations and overlying methane hydrate sediments under torsional stress and in the process activating the major strike slip faults that fan away and thrust faults that radiate from this region (Figure 16 below).
Light and Solana (2002) predicted that the north slope of the Barents - Laptev - East Siberian seas at the intersection of the slowly opening Gakkel Ridge. This region would be especially vulnerable to slope failures where unstable methane hydrate would be affected by seismicity from earthquakes with magnitudes greater then 3.5 Richter and at depths of less than 30 km. Many earthquakes occur along the Gakkel Ridge often with magnitudes greater than 4 to 6 and at depths shallower than 10 km (Avetisov, 2008) continuously destabilizing the already unstable methane hydrates there (Figure 16 below).
- Major and minor strike slip and normal faults form a continuous subterranean network around the Gakkel Ridge and are clearly charged with overpressured methane because methane gas is escaping from these fault lines many hundreds of km up dip and away from the subsea methane hydrate zones through which these fault zones pass (Figures 9 above and Figure 18 right).
- One small methane eruption zone occurs directly over the centre of the Gakkel Ridge and probably represents thermogenic deep seated methane being released by the magmatic heating of adjacent oil/gas fields by rising (pyroclastic) magma (Figure 9 above)(Edwards et al. 2001). This surface gas eruption appears to only represent a tiny percentage of the total gas released from other sources such as methane hydrates, as do methane eruptions around Cenozoic volcanics offshore Tiksi on the East Siberian shelf (Figure 11 right and Figure 16 above).
- An elongated set of methane eruption zones occur on the submarine slope north of Svalbard flanking the Gakkel Ridge and result from methane hydrate decomposition caused by sudden changes in pressure and temperature conditions due to submarine slides/slumps (Figure 9 above). These submarine slides/slumps were evidently set off by seismic activity along the Gakkel Ridge which lies a short distance to the north in an area where the ridge opening is the widest (Figure 16 above). This may be similar to the Storegga slide (Light and Solana, 2002; NGI, 2012). Light and Solana (2002) predicted that the western slopes of Norway and along the Barents Sea to Svalbard, would be especially vulnerable to slope failures in regions of unstable methane hydrate. Here the slowly spreading Gakkel Ridge runs as close as 30 km to the slope. Earthquake activity along the Gakkel Ridge often has magnitudes greater than 4 to 6 at depths shallower than 10 km (Avetisov, 2008) and will also be destabilizing the already unstable methane hydrates here leading to eruptions of methane into the atmosphere (Figure 9 above and Figure 16 above).
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| Figure 5. From: Carana 2012b, originally from: arctische pinguin - click to enlarge |
After 2015, when the Arctic Ocean becomes navigable (Figure 5 above, Carana 2012b) it will be possible to set up a whole series of drilling platforms adjacent to, but at least 1 km away from the high volume methane eruption zones and to directionally drill inclined wells down to intersect the free methane below the sealing methane hydrate permafrost cap within the underlying fault network (Figure 18 above).
High volume methane extraction from below the subsea methane hydrates using directional drilling from platforms situated in the stable areas between the talik/fault zones will reverse the methane and seawater flow in the taliks and shut down the uncontrolled methane sea water eruptions (Figure18 above). The controlled access of globally warmed sea water drawn down through the taliks to the base of the methane hydrate - permafrost cap will gradually destabilize the underlying methane hydrate and allows complete extraction of all the gas from the methane hydrate reserve (Figure18 above). The methane extraction boreholes can be progressively opened at shallower and shallower levels as the subterranean methane hydrate decomposes allowing the complete extraction of the sub permafrost reserve (Figure18 above).
The methane and seawater will be produced to the surface where the separated methane will be processed in Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facilities and stored in LNG tankers for sale to customers as a subsidised green alternative to coal and oil for power generation, air and ground transport, for home heating and cooking and the manufacture of hydrogen, fertilizers, fabrics, glass, steel, plastics, paint and other products.
Where the trapped methane is sufficiently geopressured within the fault system network underlying the Arctic subsea permafrost and is partially dissolved in the water (Light, 1985; Tyler, Light and Ewing, 1984; Ewing, Light and Tyler, 1984) it may be possible to coproduce it with the seawater which would then be disposed of after the methane had be separated from it for storage (Jackson, Light and Ayers, 1987; Anderson et al., 1984; Randolph and Rogers, 1984; Chesney et al., 1982).
Many methane eruption zones occur along the narrow fault bound channels separating the complex island archipelago of Arctic Canada (Figure 6 and 9). In these regions drilling rigs could be located on shore or offshore and drill inclined wells to intersect the free methane zones at depth beneath the methane hydrates, while the atmospheric methane clouds could be partly eliminated by using a beamed interfering radio transmission system (Lucy Project) (Light 2011a). A similar set of onshore drilling rigs could tap subpermafrost methane along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya (Figure 6 below and 9 above).
Methane is a high energy fuel, with more energy than other comparable fossil fuels (Wales 2012). As a liquid natural gas it can be used for aircraft and road transport and rocket fuel and produces little pollution compared to coal, gasoline and other hydrocarbon fuels.
Support should be sought from the United nations, World Bank, national governments and other interested parties for a subsidy (such as a tax rebate) of some 5% to 15% of the market price on Arctic permafrost methane and its derivatives to make it the most attractive LNG for sale compared to LNG from other sources. This will guarantee that all the Arctic gas recovered from the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs and stockpiled, will immediately be sold to consumers and converted into safer byproducts. This will also act as an incentive to oil companies to produce methane in large quantities from the Arctic methane hydrate reserves. In this way the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs will be continuously reduced in a safe controlled way over the next 200 to 300 years supplying an abundant "Green LNG" energy source to humanity.
1. INTRODUCTION
The following summary of the threat posed by destabilization of subsea methane hydrates in the Arctic is from Light and Solana (2012 a,b) and the related illustrations are found on a poster in appendix 1. Methane is one of the most important greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere having 100 times as much global warming potential as carbon dioxide over 15 years and 20 times over 100 years (Dessus et al. 2008). The submarine Arctic ice (permafrost) contains abundant methane trapped as hydrates below the shelf and slope (Figure 1 above, from Max and Lowrie 1993). In the Arctic alone, the reserves are estimated at 140 times the volume of methane presently trapped in the atmosphere and if only a few percent of this gas was released quickly, the effects would be catastrophic for life on Earth. Although some authors established that submarine hydrates will remain stable for the next 1000 years, new data shows that this estimate to be extremely over optimistic. Methane hydrates within the Arctic shelf and slope are currently becoming unstable because of the increase in oceanic temperature due to global warming and are releasing increasing amounts of methane directly into the atmosphere, while a larger temperature increase is forecasted (Figures 2 above, 3 above and 4 below)(Yurganov 2012 and WWF Arctic feedbacks in Carana 2012a; NOAA 2011a).
It is firmly documented that the Arctic region has been warming over a long time since the end of the Holocene transgression onto which was superimposed the recent sharp human induced global warming event (IPPC, 2007). Models of the earths climate predict that by the end of the century, the northern latitudes will undergo the largest increase in temperature with a range from 5 degrees C to 15 degrees C. The atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes which are already noticeable in the Arctic include the reduction in the extension and thickness of the sea ice (Figure 5, Carana 2012b; Masters 2009) and changes in the water column temperature and salinity. A warm (2 degrees C maximum) intermediate depth (5 - 500 metres) current has been detected in the Arctic basin which flows along the shelf edge (Edwards et al. 2001). Importantly the largest seawater temperature increase occurs between 300 - 400 metres below sea level, intersecting the 300 metre depth stability limit of methane hydrates destabilizing them in increasing amounts.
Especially susceptible areas are the oceanic slopes particularly where they are cut by seismically active spreading centres such as the Gakkel Ridge (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). Submarine landslides on already unstable methane-rich sediments can release large amounts of gas almost instantaneously into the atmosphere (Mc Iver 1982). Methane - hydrate rich sediments are highly vulnerable to slope failure. The nature of the gas hydrates with stability fields which are very sensitive to temperature and pressure changes makes them a very favourable failure plane in the subsea sediments and one of the main causes of offshore slope instability (Dillon and Max, 2000).
Submarine slope failure of methane hydrate rich sediments poses many direct and indirect hazards. The short term ones include generation of tidal waves and tsunamis and the temporary change of the physical properties of the overlying sea water (such as the ability of drilling rigs and boats to float). Long term effects can be the depletion of oxygen from the seawater in the area of eruption with the consequential environmental impact. However the overwhelming threat of these landslides is related to the release of methane directly into the atmosphere raising (the already high and growing) level of this powerful greenhouse gas.
Apart from the change in sea temperatures, many other potential destabilizing factors operating in the Arctic increase the potential for landslides. The Mid - Atlantic Ridge and its continuation through the Arctic as the Gakkel Ridge are the major sources of destabilization processes in the area (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. in King 2012). The seismic activity associated with the slow spreading of the Gakkel Ridge at magnitudes greater than 3.5 Richter and depths shallower than 30 km will precipitate slope failures where methane hydrate is unstable. Many of the earthquakes along the Gakkel Ridge occur above 10 km depth and have magnitudes exceeding 4 to 6 (Avetisov 2008) and so are strongly destabilizing the methane hydrates in the adjacent slope regions. In addition the existence of black smokers along the Gakkel Ridge emitting heated water and periodic submarine gas charged pyroclastic eruptions (Edwards et al. 2001) gives the Gakkel Ridge a high potential for setting of catastrophic methane eruptions from destabilization of the slope, hydrothermal and abyssal plain methane hydrates (Max and Lowrie, 1993).
Especially vulnerable areas for methane hydrate destabilization in the Arctic are the western slopes of Norway and along the Barents Sea to Svalbard where the Gakkel Ridge runs as close as 30 km to the slope (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). Also the north slope of the Barents - Laptev and East Siberian seas could be affected by seismicity originating in the Gakkel Ridge region (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). The north slope off the Laptev Sea has now become a region of extreme atmospheric methane emission while other methane emissions are occurring above a shelf slump region on the western flank of Svalbard. Atmospheric methane emission zones are also widespread in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), where some of the eruption centres are up to 1 km across (Shakova et al. 2010) and also in a belt extending right across to the Canada basin and into the Bering Straight and Sea (Figures 7 directly above, 8 below and 9 above)(Saldo, 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Max and Lowrie 1993).
Especially susceptible areas are the oceanic slopes particularly where they are cut by seismically active spreading centres such as the Gakkel Ridge (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). Submarine landslides on already unstable methane-rich sediments can release large amounts of gas almost instantaneously into the atmosphere (Mc Iver 1982). Methane - hydrate rich sediments are highly vulnerable to slope failure. The nature of the gas hydrates with stability fields which are very sensitive to temperature and pressure changes makes them a very favourable failure plane in the subsea sediments and one of the main causes of offshore slope instability (Dillon and Max, 2000).
Submarine slope failure of methane hydrate rich sediments poses many direct and indirect hazards. The short term ones include generation of tidal waves and tsunamis and the temporary change of the physical properties of the overlying sea water (such as the ability of drilling rigs and boats to float). Long term effects can be the depletion of oxygen from the seawater in the area of eruption with the consequential environmental impact. However the overwhelming threat of these landslides is related to the release of methane directly into the atmosphere raising (the already high and growing) level of this powerful greenhouse gas.
Apart from the change in sea temperatures, many other potential destabilizing factors operating in the Arctic increase the potential for landslides. The Mid - Atlantic Ridge and its continuation through the Arctic as the Gakkel Ridge are the major sources of destabilization processes in the area (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. in King 2012). The seismic activity associated with the slow spreading of the Gakkel Ridge at magnitudes greater than 3.5 Richter and depths shallower than 30 km will precipitate slope failures where methane hydrate is unstable. Many of the earthquakes along the Gakkel Ridge occur above 10 km depth and have magnitudes exceeding 4 to 6 (Avetisov 2008) and so are strongly destabilizing the methane hydrates in the adjacent slope regions. In addition the existence of black smokers along the Gakkel Ridge emitting heated water and periodic submarine gas charged pyroclastic eruptions (Edwards et al. 2001) gives the Gakkel Ridge a high potential for setting of catastrophic methane eruptions from destabilization of the slope, hydrothermal and abyssal plain methane hydrates (Max and Lowrie, 1993).
Especially vulnerable areas for methane hydrate destabilization in the Arctic are the western slopes of Norway and along the Barents Sea to Svalbard where the Gakkel Ridge runs as close as 30 km to the slope (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). Also the north slope of the Barents - Laptev and East Siberian seas could be affected by seismicity originating in the Gakkel Ridge region (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. in King 2012). The north slope off the Laptev Sea has now become a region of extreme atmospheric methane emission while other methane emissions are occurring above a shelf slump region on the western flank of Svalbard. Atmospheric methane emission zones are also widespread in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), where some of the eruption centres are up to 1 km across (Shakova et al. 2010) and also in a belt extending right across to the Canada basin and into the Bering Straight and Sea (Figures 7 directly above, 8 below and 9 above)(Saldo, 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Max and Lowrie 1993).
In August 2010 there was a marked increase in the uncontrolled eruptions of methane into the Arctic atmosphere from destabilized methane hydrates which is clearly evident on the methane data from Svalbard (Figure 4 above)(NOAA 2011a). This increasing enhancement of methane eruptions produced giant clouds of methane in the atmosphere and the start of catastrophic heating caused by the high global warming potential of the methane (more than 100 over 15 years; Dessus et al. 2008) compared to carbon dioxide. By the end of 2011, widespread methane torches/fountains began to erupt on the sea floor and rise up to the sea surface where they entered the Arctic atmosphere in zones up to 1 km across to form methane clouds containing more than 2000 ppb of methane (Semiletov et al. 2011; Wolsey et al. 2011).
Widespread evidence from the Arctic and East Siberian Shelf, Svalbard (north of Norway), Point Barrow (Alaska) and NOAA and NASA satellite and surface temperature data support the testimony that massive amounts of methane began to erupt into the Arctic atmosphere toward the end of 2010 and at increasing rates in 2011 (Figure 4 above)(NOAA 2011a). This atmospheric methane is sourced from subsea Arctic methane hydrates and is now increasing at an enhanced rate with the Arctic ocean showing methane contents up to 100 times above normal (Connor, 2011; NOAA, 2011a; b, Shakova et al, 2010a; b; c; 2008). See this 2011 report by Steve Conner in The Independent:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html
The previous most catastrophic mass extinction event occured in the Permian when atmospheric methane released from subsea methane hydrates was the primary driver of a massive mean atmospheric temperature increase of about 80 degrees F (26.66 degrees C) during a time when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was less than at present (Wignall 2009).
As I write this proposal to you, global warming is causing the Arctic ocean submarine methane hydrates to destabilize at an intensified rate and erupt methane into the atmosphere in widespread numerous fountains/torches up to 1 km across along the East Siberian Shelf and elsewhere in even greater amounts (Figures 7 above, 8 above and 9 above) (Connor 2011; Saldo 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Max and Lowrie 1993). Arctic surface temperature data (with anomalies up to 20 degrees above normal) indicate that the massive methane enhanced heating threat is spreading and is now being to be seen as increased dryness and fire problems and extreme weather events in Russia, Europe, the United States and elsewhere (Light 2012a,b; Light 2011b; Light and Carana 2011, Light and Solana 2002 a,b). Shakova et al, 2010a estimate that some 50 GT of methane could erupt at any moment on the East Siberian Shelf and this will cause a worldwide atmospheric temperature anomaly up to 10 degrees Centigrade above the present atmospheric mean as it spreads around the Earth's atmosphere and lead to our certain extinction within the next 20 to 40 years (Light 2012a,b; Light 2011b).
In general recoverable gas deposits occur where the upward migration of low density gas is impeded by an impermeable barrier such as a sealing clay bed overlying an anticline or a buried permafrost layer (Allen and Allen, 1990). In the Arctic the sub permafrost methane accumulations have built up progressively filling the sub permafrost fault network as methane hydrate continuously destabilised from global warming and seismicity and as deep sourced thermogenic gas from hydrocarbon accumulations was added to the gas accumulation. The end result of this process is a giant zone of highly overpressured methane gas filling the sub permafrost fault network.. This overpressure has made the methane gas find its way out from beneath the permafrost layer via open taliks to the sea surface and atmosphere and by following multiple pathways represented by the fault system network to distant exit points in a relatively short period of time (years to decades?)(Figure 9 above, 10 directly above and 11 above)(Kholodov et al. 1999; Harrison et al. 2008; Sekretov 1998; Saldo 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993). Gas overpressure can also result in "blowouts" where drillers penetrate the sealing shale/permafrost making overpressure detection an important facet of drilling in the subsea Arctic region. The Arctic sea ice cap will totally melt by about 2015 making the Arctic Ocean navigable to ships and allow drilling rigs to be easily positioned in favorable production zones (Figure 5 above) (Carana 2012b; Masters 2009).The estimate of Shakova et al. of the threat of a 50 Gt (gigaton) eruption of methane at any time on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is based on the following factors. The area of tectonic (active fault zones) and seismic activity (geological disjunctions) forms more than 1% to 2% of the total area of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf . The total area of open taliks (the areas of melt through the permafrost cap) which act as the escape conduits for methane from beneath the subsea permafrost layer form between 5% and 10% of the total area of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Global warming is progressively opening up the subsea closed taliks increasing the rate of loss of the trapped methane beneath the submarine permafrost into the atmosphere. With a total ESAS methane reserve of some 1400 Gt to 1700 Gt (in hydrate and free methane form), some 70 Gt to 170 Gt are already overlain by open taliks containing globally warmed seawater while more than 14 Gt to 34 Gt of methane (in hydrate form) lie directly within active fault zones or regions of seismic activity. This gives a mean value of quickly movable methane on the East Siberian Shelf of some 63 - 70 Gt (Range 14 Gt to 170 Gt). The estimate of Shakova et al. is extremely conservative when you consider that it represents only a quarter of the surface area of the entire Arctic shelf and the most extreme methane eruption regions are in fact outside the ESAS where the Gakkel Ridge intersects the shelf-slope-abyssal region of the Laptev Sea (Figure 9 above)(Saldo, 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Max and Lowrie, 1993).
The escalating Arctic methane eruptions and the dating of the coming extinction events are shown in Figure 4 above and Figures 12 directly above and 13 below (Carana pers. com, 2011; Connor 2011; Dessus et al. 2008; Hansen 2011; IPCC 1992 a,b and 2007; Light 2011; Masters 2009; NOAA 2011 a,b; Wignall 2009) and are dealt with in detail in Light 2012a. Figure 12 diagrammatically shows the funnel shaped region in purple, yellow and brown of atmospheric stability of methane derived from Arctic atmospheric subsea methane eruptions formed above destabilized shelf and slope methane hydrates (Light 2012a). The width of this zone expands exponentially with increasing temperature from 2010 to reach a lifetime of more than 75 years at 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.66 degrees Centigrade) which is the estimated mean atmospheric temperature of the most catastrophic Permian extinction event of all time (Wignall 2009).
The calculated absolute mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 (10 estimates) and for the southern hemisphere 2047.6 (10 estimates) giving a final mean extinction time for 3/4 of the Earth's surface of 2039.6 (20 estimates)(Light 2012a). The final mean is similar to the extinction time suggested previously from correlations between planetary orbital mechanics and the worldwide frequency increase of Great and Normal earthquakes (Light and Carana, 2011). Extinction in the Southern Hemisphere lags the Northern Hemisphere by 9 to 29 years (Light, 2012a).
2. RELIANCE ON OTHER EXPERTS
A detailed account of the topography, geology, seismology, geology, sedimentology, distribution of subsea permafrost and methane hydrates, structure and tectonic history of the Arctic Basin is covered in Polarforschung , ICAM III , the International Conference on Arctic Margins (Volume II) edited by Franz Tessensohn and Norbert W. Roland (1999 - 2001). This includes critical papers on the geological, tectonic, geodynamic factors and petroleum potential of the Laptev Sea basins by Sekretov (2000)., Sedimentary cover thickness maps and basins in the Arctic (Gramberg et al. 2001) and modeling the offshore permafrost thickness on the Laptev Sea Shelf by Kholodov et al. (2001).
The seismic Arctic database is from NASA - NOAA (Avetisov 2008), the atmospheric methane concentration data from AIRS (Saldo, 2012 - Technical University of Denmark and Yurganov 2012a,b in Carana 2012a), and the Giss surface temperature data from NASA - Goddard Space Flight Centre (Hansen 2011). Subsea Arctic methane hydrate distribution is from Max and Lowrie, 1993 and Shakova et al. 2010.
The Arctic ocean seafloor features map showing major basins, ridges shelves and bathymetry is from King (2012) while the most recent detailed "Geological Map of the Arctic" by Harrison et al. 2008 was used to define regional sea floor fault systems.
Further important diagrams have come from the Geo-Engineering Blog and Arctic-News Blog edited by Sam Carana and the website of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group.
3. ACCESSIBILITY, CLIMATE AND PHYSIOGRAPHY
According to King (2012), the Arctic ocean is the smallest of the world's oceans with a surface area of 14,056 million square kilometres (5,427 million square miles). The Arctic includes the Barents, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Greenland, Kara and Laptev Seas, Baffin and Hudson Bays and the Hudson Straight (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Arctic Ocean is connected to the Atlantic Ocean through the Greenland and Labrador seas and to the Pacific Ocean via the Bering Straight (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012).
Navigation in the Arctic Ocean can be done through two potentially important channels. The Northern Sea route connects the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean via the northern coast of Europe/Siberia (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Northwest Passage links the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the coast of Northern North America (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). Although previously completely impassable, these routes are now ice free for a few weeks in the year and have attracted some commercial shipping because they are more direct and cut thousands of km off a trip from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. At the moment it is uncertain who has the right to use these routes and under what conditions because of jurisprudence problems.
Wales (2012) has outlined the Arctic climate. The climate of the Arctic is moderated by the Arctic Ocean which can never have a temperature below -2 degrees C (28 degrees F). The Arctic winters are cold and long, while the summers are short and cool. All regions are subjected to extremes of solar radiation throughout the year. Parts of the Arctic have a continuous sea ice, glacial ice or snow cover, but every Arctic zone has some snow cover during the year. In January the average temperatures range from 0 degrees C to -40 degrees C (+32 degrees F to -40 degrees F) and in winter the temperature can fall below -50 degrees C (-58 degrees F) in much of the Arctic. In July the average temperatures range from +10 degrees C to -10 degrees C (50 degrees F to 25 degrees F) but can exceed 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) in the summer in some onland regions.
4. HISTORY
The dominant topographic feature of the Arctic Ocean, the Lomonosov Ridge was discovered by Russian Scientists in 1948 (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The 1982 United Nations "The Law of the Sea" controls ownership, territorial waters and navigational rights in the Arctic Ocean. Russia has claimed an extended exclusive economic zone over the Lomonosov Ridge from the United Nations because it is a physical extension of Eurasia, while Denmark and Canada have done the same.
The dominant topographic feature of the Arctic Ocean, the Lomonosov Ridge was discovered by Russian Scientists in 1948 (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The 1982 United Nations "The Law of the Sea" controls ownership, territorial waters and navigational rights in the Arctic Ocean. Russia has claimed an extended exclusive economic zone over the Lomonosov Ridge from the United Nations because it is a physical extension of Eurasia, while Denmark and Canada have done the same.
5. GEOLOGICAL SETTING
King (2012) has outlined the major geological features of the Arctic ocean. The most outstanding topographic feature of the Arctic sea floor is the Lomonosov Ridge which is gently inclined toward North America but on the Eurasian side is cut by a series of half - graben faults (Figures 6 above and 14 right)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Lomonosov Ridge is considered to be a section of Eurasian crust which rifted off the margin of the Barents and Kara seas and then subsided in the Early Tertiary (ca 64 to 56 Ma ago)(Figures 6 above and 14 right)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Lomonosov Ridge separates two major basins in the Arctic, the Eurasian basin on the European/Siberian flank of the ridge and the Amerasian Basin on the North American flank Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Lomonosov ridge extends from the New Siberian Islands off Russia to the Lincoln Shelf next to Ellesmere island/Greenland. It is some 3000 meters above the floors of the adjacent basins and, at its shallowest, it is 954 meters below sea level (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012).
The Gakkel Ridge "mid-ocean" spreading centre rifted the Lomonosov block away from the Eurasian continent (Figure 6 above, 14 above and 15 below)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Gakkel Ridge divides the Eurasian Basin into the Nansen Basin on the European/Siberian flank and the Fram Basin on the Lomonosov side of the ridge (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012).
The Amerasian Basin is also subdivided by the Alpha Ridge into the Makarov Basin on the Lomonosov side of the ridge and the Canada basin on the North American side (Figure 6 above).
(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). Very extensive continental shelves surround the Eurasian and Amerasian basins. The Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberian shelves extend from west to east along the coasts of Europe and Siberia (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Chukchi and Beaufort shelves extend from west to east along the coast of North America (Figure 6 above) (IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). The Lincoln shelf lies off the north coast of Greenland which is flanked by the East and West Greenland rift basins to the E and W.
6. DEPOSIT TYPES
Giant natural gas reserves underlie the Barents and Kara shelves while significant oil and natural gas potential occurs within the East and West Greenland rift basins (Figure 6 above)(IOC et al. 2012 in King 2012). Subsea (shelf and slope) methane hydrate deposits are extremely widespread throughout the Arctic (Figure 1 above and 9 above)(Max and Lowrie 1993; Kvenvolden 1998, 2001; Shakova et al. 2010; Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008) while geopressured methane formed from their decomposition and also of thermogenic origin is trapped beneath the subsea permafrost and in the complex fault and shear network (Figure 8)(Kholodov et al. 1999, Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008; Shakova et al. 2010). This methane is now escaping in increasing quantities from these faults/shears (taliks) now open to the surface because of destabilization of the methane hydrate by globally warmed marine waters and they have formed widespread Arctic methane eruption centres (torches)(Figures 9 and 11)(Kholodov et al. 1999; Harrison et al. 2008; Shakova et al. 2010; Saldo, 2012, Sekretov 1998).
7. ARCTIC METHANE HYDRATES
Above Figures 7, 8 and 9 show the distribution of Arctic subsea methane eruption points from AIRS data (Saldo 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Yurganov 2012 a, b; Max and Lowrie 1993; NOAA 2011a). Several important points emerge from these diagrams.
- The size of the methane eruption (torch) zones increase into the Arctic and are largest well away from land exactly overlying the methane hydrates indicating that they can only be sourced from these subsea methane hydrates and the more profound thermogenic formation of methane from deeply buried oil/gas fields (Figure 9) (Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Allen and Allen, 1990). The fact that the further north you go, the more the subsea methane is erupting and that this is the region where the greatest global warming induced temperature increase is being observed indicates that the two are intimately linked. Globally warmed oceanic water currents are decomposing the subsea methane hydrates and opening the taliks above the seismically active strike slip and normal faults in the Gakkel Ridge and Beaufort Sea regions where they are releasing geopressured methane in increasing amounts up to the sea surface and into the atmosphere (Figures 9 and 11) (Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993, Kholodov et al. 1999; Sekretov 1998).
- There is an exact link between the spreading Gakkel Ridge and its active seismicity, high heat flow and hot water emitted from black smokers along active fault systems bounding it and the formation of methane gas filled taliks above the fault zones formed from the destabilization of subsea hydrothermal and slope methane hydrates (Figure 9) (Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993). Globally warmed oceanic water is also evidently penetrating down the highly fractured margins of the Gakkel Ridge where it is coming in contact with the rising mid- ocean magmas preventing them from cooling efficiently with the result that the ridge is becoming more and more active. The hotter the magmas are, the more expanded they are, generating torsional stresses on the surrounding rocks because the Gakkel mid - ocean ridge is expanding in a wedge like fashion in a region cutting at right angles through the Laptev Sea (East Siberian Arctic Shelf) north of the Tiksi (Figures 15 and 16) (IOC et al. in King 2012; Avetisov 2008; Sekretov 1998; Yurganov 2012; Saldo 2012; Hansen 2011; Light and Carana 2011). Although the effect of globally warmed Siberian river waters causing methane decomposition and methane release is locally important in the ESAS (Shakova et al. 2007, 2008, 2010) it is clearly not the driving force for the major methane atmospheric eruptions in the Laptev Sea shelf slope region of the Gakkel Ridge where the methane eruption centers occur directly above the zone where the Gakkel Ridge intersects a huge zone of slope and hydrothermal methane hydrates which are cut by a radiating zone of shear faults in a region of active seismicity (Figures 15, 1 and 9)(Harrison et al, 2008; Max and Lowrie, 1993)
- The methane eruption (torch) zones are mostly directly linked to major strike - slip and normal fault systems indicating that the latter are charged with geopressured gas and have acted as conduits for the migration of gas from destabilized shallow methane hydrates (0 - 500 meters; Kholodov et al. 1999) and from deeper gas and oil formations that have undergone methanogenesis (Allen and Allen, 1990). In the latter case the oil/gas traps became over filled and leaked (Figures 9, 10 and 11) (Allen and Allen, 1990; Light, Posey, Kyle and Price, 1987; Max and Lowrie 1993; Shakova et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2008; Sekretov 1998). The carbon isotopic signature of the methane can be used to determine what percentage of the surface gas is derived from these two separate sources (Borowski 2004; Whiticar, 1994; Light, Posey, Kyle and Price, 1987).
- The methane eruption zones (torches) occur widely in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) but the largest are confined to the region outside the ESAS where the Gakkel mid ocean ridge system intersects the methane hydrate rich shelf slope region at right angles and its wedge like opening and spreading is putting the formations and overlying methane hydrate sediments under torsional stress and in the process activating the major strike slip faults that fan/radiate from this region (Figures 9, 11 and 16)(Avetisov 2008; Sekretov 1998: Yurganov 2012; Saldo 2012; Hansen 2011; Light and Carana 2011; Max and Lowrie 1993; Shakova et al 2010; Harrison et al 2008).
- The major and minor strike slip and normal faults are clearly charged with overpressured methane and form a continuous subterranean network as methane gas is escaping from these fault lines often many hundreds of km up dip and away from the subsea methane hydrate zones through which these fault zones pass (Figures 9 and 11) (Saldo 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Kholodov et al. 1999; Harrison et al 2008; Sekretov 1998).
- One small methane eruption zone occurs directly over the centre of the Gakkel Ridge and probably represents thermogenic deep seated methane being released by the magmatic heating of adjacent oil/gas fields that the rising (pyroclastic) magma is heating up (Figure 9) (Edwards et al. 2001). This surface gas eruption appears to only represent a tiny percentage of the total gas released from other sources such as methane hydrates as do methane eruptions around Cenozoic volcanics offshore Tiksi on the East Siberian shelf (Figure 9) (Saldo 2012; Shakova et al 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993).
- An elongated set of methane eruption zones occur on the west submarine slope off Svalbard flanking the Gakkel Ridge and appear to be the result of methane hydrate decomposition caused by the changing pressure and temperature conditions due to submarine slides/slumps evidently set off by Gakkel Ridge seismic activity close to the widest zone of ridge opening (Figure 9) (Saldo 2012; Shakova et al 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993). This may be similar to the Storegga slide (Light and Solana, 2002).
- Shakova et al, 2010a estimate that some 50 Gt of methane could erupt at any moment on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) where subsea methane eruption zones are up to 1 km across and this will cause an equivalent increase in the mean carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere by 12 generating a climatic catastrophe. Such an increase in equivalent carbon dioxide would cause a worldwide atmospheric temperature anomaly up to 10 degrees Centigrade above the present atmospheric mean as it spreads around the Earth's atmosphere and lead to our certain extinction within the next 20 to 40 years (See Carana and Light, 2011; Figures 12 and 13). However it is evident from Figure 9 that most of the methane eruption zones visible from the stationary start points of atmospheric methane clouds recognised on AIRS data (Yurganov, 2012) lie outside the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) area (Max and Lowrie, 1993; Shakova et al. 2010; Saldo 2012). Furthermore from two to three times as much methane appears to be undergoing release into the atmosphere outside the ESAS as within it (Figure 17)(Saldo 2012; Harrison et al 2008). Consequently the estimate of Shakova et al. (2010a) of some 50 Gt of unstable methane hydrates ready to release methane into the atmosphere from the ESAS at any time can be replaced roughly by some 100 Gt to 200 Gt of unstable methane hydrate ready for immediate release of methane into the Arctic atmosphere for the entire Arctic region. The release of such a vast quantity of methane into the Arctic atmosphere will cause a worldwide atmospheric temperature anomaly between 20oC to 40oC degrees above the present atmospheric mean. As this giant methane cloud rises because of its low denisty and spreads around the Earth's atmosphere, it will lead to humanities complete and absolute extinction within the next 20 to 40 years unless we can eliminate the threat that this methane poses.
8. EXPLORATION
Kholodov et al. 1999 have modeled the thickness of the offshore permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf (Figures 10 and 11 above) (Harrison et al. 2008; Sekretov 1998; Saldo 2012). Figure 10 shows the distribution of the thickness calculated permafrost and the fault system from the most recent Arctic map (Harrison et al. 2008), while Figure 11 shows the atmospheric methane eruption points in yellow and purple derived from the stationary start points of methane clouds on AIRS data (Saldo, 2012). The distribution of the methane eruption zones in the Laptev Sea is clearly linked to the fault network but also to the trend of the Gakkel Ridge as eruption zones surround Cenozoic volcanoes close to latitudes 73 and 75 degrees (Sekretov, 1999) along the shelf extension of the submarine ridge system.
The calculated thickness of the ice bonded permafrost in the Laptev Sea between latitudes 72N and 77N and at water depths of 20 meters to 100 meters varies from 80 meters to 470 meters in regions of structural uplift and 80 meters to 530 meters in regions of structural depression (Figure 11) (Kholodov et al. 1999). Although no borehole data was available from the Laptev Sea shelf to check the calculated data set, the data was calibrated on well temperature measurements from the Tiksi area (from Devyatkin in Kholodov et al. 1999).
The maximum thickness (ca 500 meters) of the offshore ice bound permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf formed around 18,000 years ago (Sartan cryochron) but has been reduced to 150 to 200 meters due to the recent thawing of these deposits from beneath and the retreat of the shorelines due to thermoerosion (Figures 10 and 11) (Kholodov et al. 1999).
Open and closed linear extended taliks, representing walls of melted permafrost exist above large seismically active (strike slip and normal) fault lines with high values of geothermal flow (from 100 mW/m^2 or greater) (Figure 18) (Kholodov et al. 1999). Globally warmed Arctic Ocean sea water has melted and opened the sub - permafrost taliks to the surface where they represent the eruption points (base of the torches) for the atmospheric methane clouds that are visible on the AIRS data (Saldo, 2012). Open and closed taliks also exist in the channel parts of the paleovalleys of large rivers and in the offshore zone to depths of 15 to 20 meters (Kholodov et al. 1999).
9. MINERAL RESOURCE AND RESERVE ESTIMATES
The Arctic submarine permafrost contains abundant methane trapped as hydrates below the shelf and slope and the reserves are estimated at more than 140 times the volume of methane presently trapped in the atmosphere (Light and Solana, 2002) equivalent to 2.11*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP)(Engineering Toolbox, 2011). Kvenvolden and Grantz (1990) have estimated that the total reserves of Arctic subsea methane as 540 Gt organic carbon which is equivalent to 1*10 power 15 cubic metres. McGuire et al. 2009 estimate the total reserves of the Arctic ocean methane hydrates as ranging from 30 to 170*10 power 15 grams methane equivalent to 5.03*10 power 14 to 2.85*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP).
Together the Norwegian and Arctic basins have some 1,000,000 square km of slopes exposed with an average potential thickness of some 363.5 metres of gas hydrate on them from 28 modelled estimates of the ice bonded permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf (Light and Solana, 2002; Kholodov et al. 1999). As each cubic metre of gas hydrate contains 164 cubic metres of gas (Engineering Toolbox, 2011), the total Arctic methane hydrate reserve is estimated at 5.96*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP). Shakova et al (2008) estimated the total value of the ESAS carbon pool as greater than 1400 GT organic carbon equivalent to 1.4*10 power 18 grams. This gives a total ESAS methane reserve of 2.61*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP). Because the ESAS represents about 1/4 of the total surface area of the Arctic shelves we can fix the total Arctic methane reserves at about 1.04*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP).
Shakova et al. (2010a) have subsequently estimated the reserves of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) at 500 Gt of organic carbon in the permafrost, 1000 Gt of organic carbon locked in the subsea methane hydrate deposits and 700 Gt of free methane trapped beneath the methane hydrate stability zone. As one Gt is equivalent to 10 power 15 grams, the carbon locked in the subsea ESAS methane hydrate deposits is some 1*10 power 18 grams and 7*10 power 17 grams carbon as a free methane gas below the methane hydrate stability zone. This gives a total subsea methane reserve in the ESAS of 3.17*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP). Because the ESAS represents about 1/4 of the total surface area of the Arctic shelves we can fix the total Arctic methane reserves at about 1.27*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP).
The mean methane reserves for the subsea Arctic methane hydrate from the above seven estimates is 1.545*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP) with the value ranging between 5*10 power 14 and 5.96*10 power 16 cubic metres methane (STP). The mean methane reserves of the subsea methane hydrates are equivalent to 700 million giant gas fields, where a giant gas field is defined as containing more than 3 trillion cubic feet or 85 million cubic metres of recoverable gas (Halbouty, 2001).
10. CONCLUSIONS
The historical development of the offshore subsea permafrost methane hydrate layer and the subsequent degradation and thermoerosion of the permafrost with the opening of oceanic taliks by global warming effects is based on an W - E deep water profiles of the northern Laptev Sea (ca 75 to 77 Degrees N) from Kholodov et al. 1999 (see Figure 18).
18,000 years ago a major ice advance occured in the Northern Hemisphere and the ocean water depth was some 200 meters lower than at the present moment (Calder, 1983). At the same time (18,000 years ago) a series of closed vertical taliks (sheared melted vertical wall like zones in the subsea permafrost - methane hydrates) were filled with free methane and developed above seismically active strike - slip fault zones that were regions of increased geothermal gradient (> 100 mW/square meters) in the region the slowly spreading Arctic Gakkel Ridge (Figure 18) (Kholodov et al. 1999).
The Arctic methane hydrate gas reserves represent a massive "Green Gas" energy source which is available to mankind over a number of centuries if the methane is extracted in a controlled manner. The Arctic methane hydrate gas reserves also represent a catastrophic threat which will lead to our certain extinction if they are allowed to erupt out of control into the atmosphere over a short period of time. The mean methane reserves for the subsea Arctic methane hydrates (1.545*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP)) is equivalent to more than 100 times the volume of methane presently trapped in the atmosphere and if it was all released would cause a mean atmospheric temperature increase of more than 190 degrees C at a methane global warming potential of 100 active over the relatively short time that methane is stable (15 years)(Dessus et al. 2008). Under these extreme conditions the oceans would begin to boil off and the Earth's atmosphere start to resemble that of Venus.
11. RECOMMENDATIONS
Proposed Subsea Methane Extraction Method to Prevent Arctic Methane Eruptions
This proposed subsea methane extraction system to prevent Arctic methane eruptions on the Siberian Shelf, Canada Basin/Canada Arctic Archipelago and Bering Sea is based on an W - E deep water profile of the northern Laptev Sea (ca 75 to 77 Degrees N) from Kholodov et al. 1999 (Figure 18).
After 2015, when the Arctic Ocean becomes navigable (Figure 5 Carana 2012b) it will be possible to set up a whole series of drilling platforms adjacent to but at least 1 km away from the high volume methane eruption zones and to directionally drill inclined wells down to intersect the free methane below the sealing methane hydrate permafrost cap within the underlying fault network. The methane is likely to be highly overpressured beneath the sealing permafrost and this is the drive that has made the methane gas find its way out from beneath the permafrost layer by following multiple pathways represented by the fault system network often many hundreds of km up dip from the methane hydrates and also via open taliks to the sea surface and atmosphere in a relatively short period of time. This overpressure can result in "blowouts" where drillers penetrate the sealing shale - permafrost making overpressure detection and correct density muds a very important facet of drilling in the subsea Arctic permafrost. The actual origin of the methane gas is not important, whether it formed from methane hydrate destabilization or from thermogenic breakdown of oil in deeper reservoirs (Shakova et al. 2010). In either case it has strongly charged the network of faults underlying the subsea Arctic permafrost where it is now overpressured and erupting.
High volume methane extraction from below the subsea methane hydrates using directional drilling from platforms situated in the stable areas between the talik/fault zones should reverse the methane and seawater flow in the taliks and shut down the uncontrolled methane sea water eruptions. Methane extraction from below the subsea permafrost will pull down the rising methane and seawater erupting in the taliks and enable an equilibrium position to be reached in which no methane freely enters the atmosphere and is all being drawn up inclined wells to the drilling platform where it is separated from the seawater and stored in LNG tankers for sale. The controlled access of globally warmed sea water drawn down through the taliks to the base of the methane hydrate - permafrost cap will gradually destabilize the underlying methane hydrate and will allow complete extraction of all of the gas from the methane hydrate reserve over an extended period of time. The methane extraction boreholes can be progressively opened at shallower and shallower levels as the subterranean methane hydrate decomposes allowing the complete extraction of the sub permafrost methane reserve.
Methane derived from the submarine hydrates in the shallow Laptev Sea could also be piped ashore to run electric power generating stations. Some of this electric energy could be used for powering radio interference transmission stations (Lucy Project) designed to destroy the already erupted Arctic atmosphere methane clouds (Light 2011a). These stations could be situated on the Siberian coast, on the New Siberian Islands and on Novaya Zemlya. A similar system could also be used in Canadian and Alaskan territory.
The methane and seawater will be produced to the surface where the separated methane will stored in specially designed LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) tankers for transport and sale to customers as a subsidized "Green Energy" alternative to coal and oil for power generation and for air and ground transport (Figure 18). Standby LNG tankers must remain linked to the pipeline network in case there are problems such as the volume of gas being recovered or blowouts causing part of the pipeline network to be shut down. Other LNG tankers will be transferring the methane for sale to markets in Japan, China, India, US, Canada and Europe. The methane energy source will be of vital importance to Japan, who needs to replace its nuclear generating capacity with a safer "Green" alternative.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the most efficient method of transporting large volumes of gas over long distances. Methane can be liquefied at liquefaction plants and transported in LNG carriers across oceans and in tank trucks as liquefied or compressed natural gas (CNG) over land after it has been regasefied at the terminal. Floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facilities are being developed by Shell to be completed by 2017 which will allow all gas processing to be done at an offshore gas field (FT.com, 2011). Similar systems must be developed immediately for use in the Arctic Ocean on the methane hydrate eruption fields.
Because of the massive size of the methane hydrate "Green Gas" reserves in the Arctic (equivalent to more than 700 million giant gas fields; Halbouty 2001) the process of methane extraction could last over hundreds of years and supply fuel for a safe "Green Gas" electricity generation future during the long transition of the Earth to a complete green powered economy. New technologies will come in designing and mass producing drilling platforms for the Arctic shallow shelf and slope regions, in mass producing specific LNG tankers for methane, in designing and developing the gas pipeline infrastructure to transport the gas and converting all existing coal and oil electric power stations to natural gas.
Gazprom is constructing large drilling platforms for working in the Arctic in shallow water where the methane hydrate threat is large (Gazprom, 2011). Where possible jack-up rigs may be preferable as they can sit on the sea floor in case there is a blow - out, but the use of rigs with both a floating and jack up capability is to be preferred. Where undersea pipelines are laid down they must be run parallel to the trend of and some distance away from the major strike - slip faults cutting the Gakkel Ridge because these faults are active and could cause severe damage to undersea structures.
Co-production of Overpressured Methane and Seawater
Where the trapped methane is sufficiently geopressured within the fault system network underlying the Arctic subsea permafrost and is partially dissolved in the water (Light, 1985; Tyler, Light and Ewing, 1984; Ewing, Light and Tyler, 1984) it may be possible to coproduce it with the seawater which would then be disposed of after the methane had be separated from it for storage (Jackson, Light and Ayers, 1987; Anderson et al., 1984; Randolph and Rogers, 1984; Chesney et al., 1982).
Canadian Arctic
Many methane eruption zones occur along the narrow fault bound channels separating the complex island archipelago of Arctic Canada (Figure 6 and 9)(IOC et al 2012 in King 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008). In these regions drilling rigs could be located on shore or offshore and drill inclined wells to intersect the free methane zones at depth beneath the methane hydrates, while the atmospheric methane clouds could be partly eliminated by using a beamed interfering radio transmission system (Lucy Project)(Light 2011a). A similar set of onshore drilling rigs could tap sub permafrost methane along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya (Figure 6 and 9)(IOC et al 2012 in King 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008).
Methane as a Subsidised "Green Energy" Fuel
Wales (2012) has outlined the importance of methane as a "Green Energy" fuel. 84 percent of the world's natural methane gas production is from 15 countries and it has now become a major international point of friction. This is because compressed methane is a vital necessity for electrical generation and domestic heating and cooking in many countries. Methane as liquid natural gas can be used for aircraft and road transport and produces little pollution compared to coal, gasoline and other hydrocarbon fuels. Methane is also used in the manufacture of hydrogen, fertilizers, fabrics, glass, steel, plastics, paint and other products.
Methane is a major fuel for highly efficient gas - steam, combined cycle, electrical generators in power stations. Fuel cells have also been developed that turn methane into electricity.
Methane is a high energy fuel, with more energy than other comparable fossil fuels (Wales 2012). Burning methane produces 45% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than petroleum (Naturalgas, 2011). Methane is a potent domestic cooking and heating fuel generating heat in excess of 1093oC (2000oF) and it produces more heat per unit mass (55.7 kJ/g) than other complex hydrocarbons (Zimmerman and Zimmerman, 1995; Wales 2012)
Compressed methane (natural gas) is more environmentally friendly than gasoline or diesel as a vehicle fuel (Cornell 2008). By 2008 there were some 9.6 million vehicles running on methane (India 650,000; Iran 1 million; Brazil 1.6 million; Argentina 1.7 million)(IANGV 2009; Pike Research 2009). Adsorption has been researched as a method of storing methane for a vehicle fuel (Duren et al. 2004).
Liquefied methane has been tested since 1970 as a fuel for aircraft (Tupolev 2011). Methane is some 200$ cheaper to operate per ton than other fuels and there is a large reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. As a jet fuel, liquid methane has more specific energy than standard kerosene mixes and the low temperature of the methane cools the air the engine compresses increasing its volumetric efficiency.
NASA has also conducted research on methane as a potential rocket fuel to make long distance space travel economic (NASA 2007).
Support should be sought from the United nations, World Bank, national governments and other interested parties for a subsidy (such as a tax rebate) of some 5% to 15% of the market price on Arctic permafrost methane and its derivatives to make it the most attractive LNG for sale compared to LNG from other sources. This will guarantee that all the Arctic gas recovered from the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs and stockpiled, will immediately be sold to consumers and converted into safer byproducts. This will also act as an incentive to oil companies to produce methane in large quantities from the Arctic methane hydrate reserves. In this way the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs will be continuously reduced in a safe controlled way over the next 200 to 300 years supplying an abundant "Green LNG" energy source to humanity.
12. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My sincere thanks to Dr Sigrid Clift of the Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas at Austin for giving me access to critical information on the distribution and history of permafrost in the Arctic. Sincere thanks also to Harold Hensel and Sam Carana whose encouragement and hard work have helped me find a complete solution to the catastrophic threat posed to our existence on Earth by the escalating Arctic atmospheric methane emissions. I am indebted to Tenny Naumer of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group for assisting me in the acquisition of the AIRS data which defines precisely the major Arctic methane emission zones.
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Calder, N., 1983. Timescale - An Atlas of the Fourth Dimension. Chatto & Windus- The Hogarth Press, London, 288 pp.
Callesthen, C., 2001. Giant submarine landslides off continental margins and stability of hydrocarbon clathrate hydrates.- A laboratory study. U.S.G.S.
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Campbell I.D., Campbell C., Apps M.J., Rutter N.W., Bush A.B.G. 1998. Late Holocene ~ 1500 yr climatic periodicities and their implications. Geology 26, 5, 471-473.
Carana, S., 2011a. Runaway Warming 2011. Geo-engineering blog
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Carana, S., 2012a. Striking increase of methane in the Arctic. In: Arctic News
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Light, M.P.R. and Carana, S., 2011c. Methane linked to seismic activity in the Arctic. In: Arctic News
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Kholodov et al. 1999 have modeled the thickness of the offshore permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf (Figures 10 and 11 above) (Harrison et al. 2008; Sekretov 1998; Saldo 2012). Figure 10 shows the distribution of the thickness calculated permafrost and the fault system from the most recent Arctic map (Harrison et al. 2008), while Figure 11 shows the atmospheric methane eruption points in yellow and purple derived from the stationary start points of methane clouds on AIRS data (Saldo, 2012). The distribution of the methane eruption zones in the Laptev Sea is clearly linked to the fault network but also to the trend of the Gakkel Ridge as eruption zones surround Cenozoic volcanoes close to latitudes 73 and 75 degrees (Sekretov, 1999) along the shelf extension of the submarine ridge system.
The calculated thickness of the ice bonded permafrost in the Laptev Sea between latitudes 72N and 77N and at water depths of 20 meters to 100 meters varies from 80 meters to 470 meters in regions of structural uplift and 80 meters to 530 meters in regions of structural depression (Figure 11) (Kholodov et al. 1999). Although no borehole data was available from the Laptev Sea shelf to check the calculated data set, the data was calibrated on well temperature measurements from the Tiksi area (from Devyatkin in Kholodov et al. 1999).
The maximum thickness (ca 500 meters) of the offshore ice bound permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf formed around 18,000 years ago (Sartan cryochron) but has been reduced to 150 to 200 meters due to the recent thawing of these deposits from beneath and the retreat of the shorelines due to thermoerosion (Figures 10 and 11) (Kholodov et al. 1999).
Open and closed linear extended taliks, representing walls of melted permafrost exist above large seismically active (strike slip and normal) fault lines with high values of geothermal flow (from 100 mW/m^2 or greater) (Figure 18) (Kholodov et al. 1999). Globally warmed Arctic Ocean sea water has melted and opened the sub - permafrost taliks to the surface where they represent the eruption points (base of the torches) for the atmospheric methane clouds that are visible on the AIRS data (Saldo, 2012). Open and closed taliks also exist in the channel parts of the paleovalleys of large rivers and in the offshore zone to depths of 15 to 20 meters (Kholodov et al. 1999).
9. MINERAL RESOURCE AND RESERVE ESTIMATES
The Arctic submarine permafrost contains abundant methane trapped as hydrates below the shelf and slope and the reserves are estimated at more than 140 times the volume of methane presently trapped in the atmosphere (Light and Solana, 2002) equivalent to 2.11*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP)(Engineering Toolbox, 2011). Kvenvolden and Grantz (1990) have estimated that the total reserves of Arctic subsea methane as 540 Gt organic carbon which is equivalent to 1*10 power 15 cubic metres. McGuire et al. 2009 estimate the total reserves of the Arctic ocean methane hydrates as ranging from 30 to 170*10 power 15 grams methane equivalent to 5.03*10 power 14 to 2.85*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP).
Together the Norwegian and Arctic basins have some 1,000,000 square km of slopes exposed with an average potential thickness of some 363.5 metres of gas hydrate on them from 28 modelled estimates of the ice bonded permafrost on the Laptev Sea shelf (Light and Solana, 2002; Kholodov et al. 1999). As each cubic metre of gas hydrate contains 164 cubic metres of gas (Engineering Toolbox, 2011), the total Arctic methane hydrate reserve is estimated at 5.96*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP). Shakova et al (2008) estimated the total value of the ESAS carbon pool as greater than 1400 GT organic carbon equivalent to 1.4*10 power 18 grams. This gives a total ESAS methane reserve of 2.61*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP). Because the ESAS represents about 1/4 of the total surface area of the Arctic shelves we can fix the total Arctic methane reserves at about 1.04*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP).
Shakova et al. (2010a) have subsequently estimated the reserves of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) at 500 Gt of organic carbon in the permafrost, 1000 Gt of organic carbon locked in the subsea methane hydrate deposits and 700 Gt of free methane trapped beneath the methane hydrate stability zone. As one Gt is equivalent to 10 power 15 grams, the carbon locked in the subsea ESAS methane hydrate deposits is some 1*10 power 18 grams and 7*10 power 17 grams carbon as a free methane gas below the methane hydrate stability zone. This gives a total subsea methane reserve in the ESAS of 3.17*10 power 15 cubic metres of methane (STP). Because the ESAS represents about 1/4 of the total surface area of the Arctic shelves we can fix the total Arctic methane reserves at about 1.27*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP).
The mean methane reserves for the subsea Arctic methane hydrate from the above seven estimates is 1.545*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP) with the value ranging between 5*10 power 14 and 5.96*10 power 16 cubic metres methane (STP). The mean methane reserves of the subsea methane hydrates are equivalent to 700 million giant gas fields, where a giant gas field is defined as containing more than 3 trillion cubic feet or 85 million cubic metres of recoverable gas (Halbouty, 2001).
10. CONCLUSIONS
The historical development of the offshore subsea permafrost methane hydrate layer and the subsequent degradation and thermoerosion of the permafrost with the opening of oceanic taliks by global warming effects is based on an W - E deep water profiles of the northern Laptev Sea (ca 75 to 77 Degrees N) from Kholodov et al. 1999 (see Figure 18).
18,000 years ago a major ice advance occured in the Northern Hemisphere and the ocean water depth was some 200 meters lower than at the present moment (Calder, 1983). At the same time (18,000 years ago) a series of closed vertical taliks (sheared melted vertical wall like zones in the subsea permafrost - methane hydrates) were filled with free methane and developed above seismically active strike - slip fault zones that were regions of increased geothermal gradient (> 100 mW/square meters) in the region the slowly spreading Arctic Gakkel Ridge (Figure 18) (Kholodov et al. 1999).
The Arctic methane hydrate gas reserves represent a massive "Green Gas" energy source which is available to mankind over a number of centuries if the methane is extracted in a controlled manner. The Arctic methane hydrate gas reserves also represent a catastrophic threat which will lead to our certain extinction if they are allowed to erupt out of control into the atmosphere over a short period of time. The mean methane reserves for the subsea Arctic methane hydrates (1.545*10 power 16 cubic metres of methane (STP)) is equivalent to more than 100 times the volume of methane presently trapped in the atmosphere and if it was all released would cause a mean atmospheric temperature increase of more than 190 degrees C at a methane global warming potential of 100 active over the relatively short time that methane is stable (15 years)(Dessus et al. 2008). Under these extreme conditions the oceans would begin to boil off and the Earth's atmosphere start to resemble that of Venus.
11. RECOMMENDATIONS
Proposed Subsea Methane Extraction Method to Prevent Arctic Methane Eruptions
This proposed subsea methane extraction system to prevent Arctic methane eruptions on the Siberian Shelf, Canada Basin/Canada Arctic Archipelago and Bering Sea is based on an W - E deep water profile of the northern Laptev Sea (ca 75 to 77 Degrees N) from Kholodov et al. 1999 (Figure 18).
After 2015, when the Arctic Ocean becomes navigable (Figure 5 Carana 2012b) it will be possible to set up a whole series of drilling platforms adjacent to but at least 1 km away from the high volume methane eruption zones and to directionally drill inclined wells down to intersect the free methane below the sealing methane hydrate permafrost cap within the underlying fault network. The methane is likely to be highly overpressured beneath the sealing permafrost and this is the drive that has made the methane gas find its way out from beneath the permafrost layer by following multiple pathways represented by the fault system network often many hundreds of km up dip from the methane hydrates and also via open taliks to the sea surface and atmosphere in a relatively short period of time. This overpressure can result in "blowouts" where drillers penetrate the sealing shale - permafrost making overpressure detection and correct density muds a very important facet of drilling in the subsea Arctic permafrost. The actual origin of the methane gas is not important, whether it formed from methane hydrate destabilization or from thermogenic breakdown of oil in deeper reservoirs (Shakova et al. 2010). In either case it has strongly charged the network of faults underlying the subsea Arctic permafrost where it is now overpressured and erupting.
High volume methane extraction from below the subsea methane hydrates using directional drilling from platforms situated in the stable areas between the talik/fault zones should reverse the methane and seawater flow in the taliks and shut down the uncontrolled methane sea water eruptions. Methane extraction from below the subsea permafrost will pull down the rising methane and seawater erupting in the taliks and enable an equilibrium position to be reached in which no methane freely enters the atmosphere and is all being drawn up inclined wells to the drilling platform where it is separated from the seawater and stored in LNG tankers for sale. The controlled access of globally warmed sea water drawn down through the taliks to the base of the methane hydrate - permafrost cap will gradually destabilize the underlying methane hydrate and will allow complete extraction of all of the gas from the methane hydrate reserve over an extended period of time. The methane extraction boreholes can be progressively opened at shallower and shallower levels as the subterranean methane hydrate decomposes allowing the complete extraction of the sub permafrost methane reserve.
Methane derived from the submarine hydrates in the shallow Laptev Sea could also be piped ashore to run electric power generating stations. Some of this electric energy could be used for powering radio interference transmission stations (Lucy Project) designed to destroy the already erupted Arctic atmosphere methane clouds (Light 2011a). These stations could be situated on the Siberian coast, on the New Siberian Islands and on Novaya Zemlya. A similar system could also be used in Canadian and Alaskan territory.
The methane and seawater will be produced to the surface where the separated methane will stored in specially designed LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) tankers for transport and sale to customers as a subsidized "Green Energy" alternative to coal and oil for power generation and for air and ground transport (Figure 18). Standby LNG tankers must remain linked to the pipeline network in case there are problems such as the volume of gas being recovered or blowouts causing part of the pipeline network to be shut down. Other LNG tankers will be transferring the methane for sale to markets in Japan, China, India, US, Canada and Europe. The methane energy source will be of vital importance to Japan, who needs to replace its nuclear generating capacity with a safer "Green" alternative.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the most efficient method of transporting large volumes of gas over long distances. Methane can be liquefied at liquefaction plants and transported in LNG carriers across oceans and in tank trucks as liquefied or compressed natural gas (CNG) over land after it has been regasefied at the terminal. Floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facilities are being developed by Shell to be completed by 2017 which will allow all gas processing to be done at an offshore gas field (FT.com, 2011). Similar systems must be developed immediately for use in the Arctic Ocean on the methane hydrate eruption fields.
Because of the massive size of the methane hydrate "Green Gas" reserves in the Arctic (equivalent to more than 700 million giant gas fields; Halbouty 2001) the process of methane extraction could last over hundreds of years and supply fuel for a safe "Green Gas" electricity generation future during the long transition of the Earth to a complete green powered economy. New technologies will come in designing and mass producing drilling platforms for the Arctic shallow shelf and slope regions, in mass producing specific LNG tankers for methane, in designing and developing the gas pipeline infrastructure to transport the gas and converting all existing coal and oil electric power stations to natural gas.
Gazprom is constructing large drilling platforms for working in the Arctic in shallow water where the methane hydrate threat is large (Gazprom, 2011). Where possible jack-up rigs may be preferable as they can sit on the sea floor in case there is a blow - out, but the use of rigs with both a floating and jack up capability is to be preferred. Where undersea pipelines are laid down they must be run parallel to the trend of and some distance away from the major strike - slip faults cutting the Gakkel Ridge because these faults are active and could cause severe damage to undersea structures.
Co-production of Overpressured Methane and Seawater
Where the trapped methane is sufficiently geopressured within the fault system network underlying the Arctic subsea permafrost and is partially dissolved in the water (Light, 1985; Tyler, Light and Ewing, 1984; Ewing, Light and Tyler, 1984) it may be possible to coproduce it with the seawater which would then be disposed of after the methane had be separated from it for storage (Jackson, Light and Ayers, 1987; Anderson et al., 1984; Randolph and Rogers, 1984; Chesney et al., 1982).
Canadian Arctic
Many methane eruption zones occur along the narrow fault bound channels separating the complex island archipelago of Arctic Canada (Figure 6 and 9)(IOC et al 2012 in King 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008). In these regions drilling rigs could be located on shore or offshore and drill inclined wells to intersect the free methane zones at depth beneath the methane hydrates, while the atmospheric methane clouds could be partly eliminated by using a beamed interfering radio transmission system (Lucy Project)(Light 2011a). A similar set of onshore drilling rigs could tap sub permafrost methane along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya (Figure 6 and 9)(IOC et al 2012 in King 2012; Shakova et al. 2010; Max and Lowrie 1993; Saldo 2012; Harrison et al. 2008).
Methane as a Subsidised "Green Energy" Fuel
Wales (2012) has outlined the importance of methane as a "Green Energy" fuel. 84 percent of the world's natural methane gas production is from 15 countries and it has now become a major international point of friction. This is because compressed methane is a vital necessity for electrical generation and domestic heating and cooking in many countries. Methane as liquid natural gas can be used for aircraft and road transport and produces little pollution compared to coal, gasoline and other hydrocarbon fuels. Methane is also used in the manufacture of hydrogen, fertilizers, fabrics, glass, steel, plastics, paint and other products.
Methane is a major fuel for highly efficient gas - steam, combined cycle, electrical generators in power stations. Fuel cells have also been developed that turn methane into electricity.
Methane is a high energy fuel, with more energy than other comparable fossil fuels (Wales 2012). Burning methane produces 45% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than petroleum (Naturalgas, 2011). Methane is a potent domestic cooking and heating fuel generating heat in excess of 1093oC (2000oF) and it produces more heat per unit mass (55.7 kJ/g) than other complex hydrocarbons (Zimmerman and Zimmerman, 1995; Wales 2012)
Compressed methane (natural gas) is more environmentally friendly than gasoline or diesel as a vehicle fuel (Cornell 2008). By 2008 there were some 9.6 million vehicles running on methane (India 650,000; Iran 1 million; Brazil 1.6 million; Argentina 1.7 million)(IANGV 2009; Pike Research 2009). Adsorption has been researched as a method of storing methane for a vehicle fuel (Duren et al. 2004).
Liquefied methane has been tested since 1970 as a fuel for aircraft (Tupolev 2011). Methane is some 200$ cheaper to operate per ton than other fuels and there is a large reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. As a jet fuel, liquid methane has more specific energy than standard kerosene mixes and the low temperature of the methane cools the air the engine compresses increasing its volumetric efficiency.
NASA has also conducted research on methane as a potential rocket fuel to make long distance space travel economic (NASA 2007).
Support should be sought from the United nations, World Bank, national governments and other interested parties for a subsidy (such as a tax rebate) of some 5% to 15% of the market price on Arctic permafrost methane and its derivatives to make it the most attractive LNG for sale compared to LNG from other sources. This will guarantee that all the Arctic gas recovered from the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs and stockpiled, will immediately be sold to consumers and converted into safer byproducts. This will also act as an incentive to oil companies to produce methane in large quantities from the Arctic methane hydrate reserves. In this way the Arctic methane hydrate reservoirs will be continuously reduced in a safe controlled way over the next 200 to 300 years supplying an abundant "Green LNG" energy source to humanity.
12. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My sincere thanks to Dr Sigrid Clift of the Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas at Austin for giving me access to critical information on the distribution and history of permafrost in the Arctic. Sincere thanks also to Harold Hensel and Sam Carana whose encouragement and hard work have helped me find a complete solution to the catastrophic threat posed to our existence on Earth by the escalating Arctic atmospheric methane emissions. I am indebted to Tenny Naumer of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group for assisting me in the acquisition of the AIRS data which defines precisely the major Arctic methane emission zones.
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FIGURES
(Click on any image to view enlarged versions)
Figure 1. Arctic Ocean slope and deep water methane hydrate regions
Figure 2. AIRS atmospheric methane concentration data for the Arctic
Figure 3. Predicted locations of methane hydrate from surface temperature
Figure 4. Methane atmospheric temperature trends from methane concentrations at Svalbard
Figure 5. Arctic sea ice melting curve from Piomass data
Figure 6. International bathymetric chart of the Arctic Ocean with names of seafloor features
Figure 7. The concentration of methane eruption centres from Airs data
Figure 8. Methane eruption centres (torches) and high fault concentrations
Figure 9. The distribution of methane hydrates in the Arctic Ocean and its relation to extensive subsea methane emission zones (torches)
Figure 10. Modeled subsea permafrost thickness in the Laptev Sea
Figure 11. Modeled subsea permafrost thickness in the Laptev Sea with methane eruption centres
Figure 12. Diagram showing the region of stability of atmospheric Arctic methane erupted from destabilized shelf and slope methane hydrates
Figure 13. Further refined mean global extinction fields using a latent heat of ice melting curve
Figure 14. Highlighted topography of the Arctic Ocean showing the trend of the Gakkel Ridge
Figure 15. Inverted Arctic topography showing the wedge shaped opening of the Gakkel Ridge
Figure 16. Methane emission points related to the wedge like opening of the Gakkel Ridge
Figure 17. Extreme, high and medium priority submarine Arctic clathrate (methane hydrate) atmospheric methane emission zones
Figure 18. Prevention of Arctic methane eruptions
Very impressive. Very well researched. Technically, very correct. Unfortunately, you miss the point entirely of what is going on.
ReplyDeleteThe Holocene climate requires the continued burial of huge levels of carbon to keep them out of the biosphere carbon cycle.
When the Earth had huge inputs of previously buried carbon injected into the biosphere, the Earth saw the PETM, and the anoxic age at the end of the Permian. Each time, ice disappeared from the planet, temperatures increased dramatically, and there were great extinctions.
Your proposal is great if managing and taking advantage of the methane release would change the ultimate result. But it does not. In fact, it encourages a complete emptying of the methane clathrate carbon stores in the Arctic. If successful, countries in other regions would want to release from clathrates near them, even though those clathrates may not be in any danger of being released soon from GW.
In the past four years, methane has gone up by .3 ppm. That translates to an equivalent rise of 30 ppm CO2. If methane goes up to 3 ppm by 2020, then that would be like adding 120 ppm CO2 over present levels.
I still don't think that the climatologists fully understand what we are facing. If so, they have done a poor job of explaining it to the media and the public. Or, maybe the news is too dire for it to be accepted.
Thanks for commenting, Craig. Let me add that from a historic perspective there's even more reason to be worried about large abrupt methane releases, given the (historically unique) situation that there's a huge amount of methane in Arctic sediments under very shallow seas. So, it does make sense to look at ways to remove methane from some of the most vulnerable locations before it escapes into the atmosphere.
DeleteCompared to more conventional ways of obtaining fossil fuel, extraction of methane from hydrates can be expected to be more expensive, so this would need government support to be economically viable. Clean ways to produce energy, such as by means of wind turbines and solar panels, are already more economic, so it's unlikely that this would lead to further extraction beyond these vulnerable locations. Nonetheless, I agree with your concern that using the methane as fuel would lead to further emissions. Therefore, methane sequestration in hydrates could be explored as alternative destination for the methane, which could also help develop better ways of carbon sequestration in general, which seems relevant given concerns about the stability of CO2 sequestration.