Climate Plan

PAGES AT ARCTIC-NEWS BLOG

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise

The image below shows NASA temperature anomalies for January-March 2025 versus a 1951-1980 base. 

The image below is the same, but the anomaly is more closely specified (12 colors instead of 11), adding a pink color for anomalies higher than 6°C, by Makiko Sato. This highlights the very high anomalies that occurred over the Arctic Ocean during La Niña conditions, i.e. despite suppression of the temperature.  


The image below shows NASA data for March 2025. The monthly temperature anomaly has now been more than 1.5°C higher than the 1903-1924 custom base (not pre-industrial) for 21 consecutive months (July 2023 through March 2025). Anomalies are rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at 2°C rise by the end of 2026.


On April 10, 2025, the global surface air temperature was 14.86°C (or 58.75°F), the highest temperature on record for this day. The image below shows ERA5 daily temperature anomalies from end 2022 through April 10, 2025, with two trends added, a black linear trend and a red cubic (non-linear) trend that reflects stronger feedbacks and that follows ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions more closely. This red trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise. 


The shading added in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions that push up temperatures (pink shading), La Niña conditions that suppress temperatures (blue shading), or neutral conditions (gray shading). Meanwhile, NOAA has announced that La Niña conditions have ended, meaning that temperatures are no longer suppressed. 

Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend that shows a steady rise of 0.5°C over 3½ years (from 2023 to half 2026), a much steeper rise than the 1.1°C rise over 81 years (from 1941 to 2022) of a linear trend in an earlier image.

The image below shows NOAA's forecast outlook issued April 7, 2025, with rising El Niño probabilities.


     [ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]
A new El Niño may emerge soon and the red trend warns that the temperature rise could accelerate further, crossing 2°C from 1991-2020 in the course of 2026. Such acceleration could occur not only due to El Niño but also due to feedbacks and further mechanisms such as loss of sea ice. 

High ocean temperatures result in low Arctic sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image on the right and as discussed in this earlier post.

As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise may suffice to cause human extinction.

[ from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NASA - temperature anomalies

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html



Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Endangerment Finding in danger?


In the 2009 Endangerment Finding, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed that the current and projected concentrations of six key well-mixed greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.

Recently, President-elect Trump picked Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA and a Republican-controlled Senate subsequently confirmed Zeldin's appointment. More recently, in an EPA news release, Zeldin said that President Trump’s Executive Order gave the EPA Administrator a deadline to submit recommendations on the legality and continuing applicability of the 2009 Endangerment Finding. Having submitted these recommendations, the EPA can now announce its intent to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding.

Patrick Parenteau, Professor of Law Emeritus, Vermont Law & Graduate School, comments that for Zeldin to revoke the Endangerment Finding, procedures must be followed and that could take months, while lawsuits will immediately challenge the move. Even if Zeldin is able to revoke the finding, that does not automatically repeal all the rules that rely on it. Each of those rules must go through separate rulemaking processes that will also take months. To the extent that Zeldin is counting on the conservative Supreme Court to back him up, he may be disappointed. In 2024, the court overturned the Chevron doctrine, which required courts to defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretations when laws were ambiguous. That means Zeldin’s reinterpretation of the statute is not entitled to deference. Nor can he count on the court overturning its Massachusetts v. EPA ruling to free him to disregard science for policy reasons.

Dictatorship versus democracy

Nonetheless, it is worrying if a President, backed by the Senate and through appointment of judges and heads of agencies such as the EPA, is able to effectively act like a dictator. It is even more worrying to see this happen in a country like the U.S., which after all has long taken great pride in having replaced the rule of a monarch by "We, the people" and having put in place many safeguards to avoid arbitrary rule, safeguards such as separation of powers, delegation of decision-making to lower governments and inclusion of clauses in the Constitution to protect fundamental rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, next to the right to vote and equal right to justice.

The War for Independence from the British Monarchy ended in 1783 by the Treaty of Paris, in which 'His Brittanic Majesty' acknowledges the United States to be free sovereign and Independent States. This was followed by the United States Constitution, which in its first three words – 'We The People' – affirms that the government of the United States exists to serve its citizens, while the Constitution also separates the government into three branches to prevent any one branch from becoming too powerful.

The need for policies to comply with best available science

The current situation should act as a wake up call. This is not merely a debate about interpretation of law or following a political ideology. This touches everyone and everybody should get involved in efforts to do the right thing. Dictatorship in itself is bad enough, but it's even worse when it serves climate change denial. The danger of climate change is real and this reality can and must compel any government, whatever its ideological background, to look for and adopt policies that are in line with best available science. This constitutes a necessity that, where there appears to be a conflict, must overrule even what the Supreme Court, the President or Congress may decree—something so obvious that people at the time didn't see a need for it to be enshrined in the Constitution. People did clearly recognize the importance of putting in place safeguards against arbitrary rule, but clearly more should be done now.

Principles for all to follow

In many Commonwealth jurisdictions, the provision for laws to be for the peace, order and good government is highlighted in their constitution, defining the principles under which legislation must be enacted by the respective parliament. As an example, the Australian Constitution vests the legislative power of the Commonwealth of Australia in its Federal Parliament, stating that Parliament has the power, subject to this Constitution, to make laws with respect to matters such as taxation, bounties, trade and commerce, while highlighting that such laws must be for the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth. Surely, "good government" comes with the imperative for all three branches of government (legislative, executive and judicial) to accept the dangers of climate change and act accordingly.

Europe has long embraced the principle of subsidiarity (preference for decision-making to occur at the lowest level of authority capable of addressing the issue, thus promoting local autonomy and participation). Additionally, some nations have ensured that the duty for government to support the environment is enshrined in their constitution, e.g. in the Netherlands, article 21 of the Constitution imposes the duty on government to keep the country habitable and to protect and improve the environment.

For the sake of democracy and the urgent need to act on climate change, good principles must be adopted and followed. Scientists should follow principles when doing research. Journalists should follow principles when writing reports. Politicians should implement forms of democracy that support decision-making at local level. Local areas can best develop sets of local feebates and institute Local People's Courts in which randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts to ensure that policies are indeed in line with best available science. Where needed, progress with climate action should be supported by a Climate Emergency Declaration.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.