The above image shows a trend (magenta), based on NOAA August 2008 through June 2024 data (black) and added on a canvas that is 31.42-year wide. If this trend continues, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2036 due to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone.
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| [ from earlier post ] |
Rising CO₂ emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources.
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| [ from earlier post ] |
Despite the many warnings and despite pledges by politicians to act decisively, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Until now, the annual peak was typically reached in May, but this year the June average was (slightly) higher than the May average, ominously pointing at an even higher growth than the record growth in 2023.
Over the past twelve months, CO₂ concentrations have at times been recorded of well over 430 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.
The clouds tipping point is at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2036 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc.
As illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone.
As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds - at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200 - with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point.
This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page.
This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page.
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| [ image from the Extinction page ] |
There are many further developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the heating up of the atmosphere.
Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.
Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.
Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.
Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments (such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect and sunspots reaching a peak) could all contribute to cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.
Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
Links
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
Discussion at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169328525635161