Arctic News: Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The temperature in the Tropics was also at a record high for the time of year on July 21, 2026 (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures, as the amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño looks set to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026.

In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.

In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the chance that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

This partly explains why the temperature rise is strongest in the Arctic, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NASA, which shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 of up to 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, methane over the Arctic and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic ocean, as also discussed at this page.

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.16°C on July 25, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.96°C higher than 1982-2010, a record high anomaly versus 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 25, 2026.

The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies on July 26, 20026. A huge amount of Ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.

Rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño looks set to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow.

As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice area anomaly versus 1981-2010 has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño looks set to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for global sea ice.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.