Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027?

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on April 18, 2026.

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End April 2025, an Arctic sea ice maximum volume was reached of about 19,000 km³. The 2026 maximum may turn out to be about 18,000 km³.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 18, 2026, with the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) indicated by bars colored magenta (strong melting, 18,000 km³) and green (little melting, 15,000 km³).

Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. 

A record low maximum volume was reached in April 2025. Relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, yet a record low minimum volume was reached in September 2025. The April 2026 maximum looks set to be even lower, i.e. about 18,000 km³.

In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in the course of 2026. 

Methane threat

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat of thinning of Arctic sea ice resulting in increased ocean heat and methane eruptions. Arctic sea ice decline could strongly contribute to the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below and also discussed in this earlier post.

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Antarctic sea ice

The rise in temperature resulting from an Arctic Blue Ocean Event in turn threatens to also cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur in early 2027. As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called.  

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html