Monday, October 19, 2015

Lucy-Alamo Projects - Hydroxyl Generation and Atmospheric Methane Destruction

As you know the weather is starting to change rapidly for the worse now and I have been working on Arctic methane induced global warming for about 14 years. There are massive deposits of methane gas trapped in the undersea permafrosts in Russian waters and onland in Siberia as well and if the global warming boils of just 10% of what is there, there is enough to cause a Permian style extinction event that humanity will not survive. Some brilliant work on the Arctic methane threat has been done by a Russian scientist Natalia Shakhova and others who indicate that we are in a very perilous position, if we don't find a way of reducing the atmospheric methane and depressurizing the undersea methane to stop the massive methane eruptions there. I and some other workers have designed a radio-laser Atmospheric methane destruction system based on the early Russian radio-wave induced conversion of methane to nano-diamonds. This radio-laser system can be installed on nuclear powered boats such as the 40 Russian Arctic ice breakers and start immediate work on destroying the atmospheric methane clouds that are building up in the Arctic. An abstract about the system is attached and it has been accepted for presentation at a congress of the American Meteorological Society to be held on January 10 - 14, 2016 at New Orleans in Louisiana, U.S.A. This system should be mounted on the nuclear icebreakers and used onshore. Once the methane is brought under control there should be a reduction in the massive fire hazards, heat waves and severe storms systems that are plaguing Russia and the rest of the world.

Yours sincerely,

Malcolm P.R. Light
Earth Scientist

The Abstract follows:-
No. 275345 Lucy - Alamo Projects - Hydroxyl Generation and Atmospheric Methane Destruction.
by
Malcolm P.R. Light (Dr)
Retired, Cortegana, Spain

Congress of the American Meteorological Society, Wednesday 13, January, 2016

Methane formed by organisms in the water becomes trapped in the fabric of water ice crystals when it freezes and is stable below about 300 metres depth in the Arctic Ocean and on the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf. There are such massive methane reserves below the Arctic Ocean floor, that they represent 100 times the amount, that is required to cause a Permian style major extinction event, should the subsea Arctic methane be released into the atmosphere because of methane's giant global warming potential (100 to 1000 times CO2) over a short time period (Light and Solana, 2012 - 2014, Carana 2012 - 2014). There are also giant reservoirs of mantle methane, originally sealed in by shallow methane hydrate plugs in fractures cutting the Arctic seafloor and onshore in N. Siberia (Light, 2014, Carana 2013, Light, Hensel and Carana, 2015). The whole northern hemisphere is now covered by a thickening atmospheric methane global warming veil from Arctic methane emissions at the level of the jet streams, which is spreading southwards at about 1 km a day and already totally envelopes the United States (Figure 1). There must therefore be a world-wide effort to capture and thus depressurise the methane in the subsea and surface Arctic permafrost and eradicate the quantities accumulating in the ocean and atmosphere.

Methane produced at the surface diffuses upward and is broken down by photo dissociation (sunlight) and chemical attack by nascent oxygen and hydroxyl (Heicklen, 1967). The Lucy Project is a radio/laser system for destroying the first hydrogen bond in atmospheric methane when it forms dangerously thick global warming clouds over the Arctic (Figure 2, Light & Carana, 2012). It generates similar gas products to those normally produced by the natural destruction of methane in the atmosphere over some 15 to 20 years. Radio frequencies are used in generating nano-diamonds from methane gas in commercial applications over the entire pressure range of the atmosphere up to 50 km altitude (Figure 2, Light and Carana, 2012). Recent experiments have shown that when a test tube of seawater was illuminated by a polarized 13.56 MHZ radio beam, that flammable gases (nascent hydrogen and hydroxyls) were released at the top of the tube (iopscience.iop.org, 2013). In the Arctic Ocean, polarized 13.56 MHZ radio waves will decompose atmospheric humidity, mist, fog, ocean spray and the surface of the waves themselves into nascent hydrogen and hydroxyl over the region where a massive methane torch (plume) is entering the atmosphere, so that the additional hydroxyl produced will react with the rising methane, breaking a large part of it down (Figure 2)(iopscience.iop.org, 2013).

A better system could use Nd: glass heating lasers containing hexagonal neodymium which is stable below 863oC (Krupke 1986 in Lide and Frederickse, 1995). Neodymium glass lasers have extreme output parameters with peak powers near 10 to the power 14 watts when collimated and peak power densities of 10 to the power 18 watts per square cm if focused (Krupke 1986 in Lide and Frederickse, 1995). Velard (2006) states that at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, for inertial confinement nuclear fusion, "192 beams of Nd: glass - plate amplifier chains are being used in parallel clusters to generate very high energy (10 kilojoules) at a very high power (>10 power 12 watts) and at the second and third harmonics of the fundamental, with flexible pulse shapes and with sophisticated spectral and spacial on - target laser light qualities". The Nd: glass laser system is more stable and efficient than the longer wavelength CO lasers and shorter wavelength KrF lasers (Velard, 2006).

The three 13.56 MHZ radio transmitters in the Lucy Project (Figure 2) could be replaced by 3 groups of parallel lasers each forming a giant circular flash lamp. Half the Nd: glass lasers in the flash lamp could be tuned to exactly 21 million times the 13.56 MHZ methane destruction/nano-diamond formation frequency (Mitura, 1976). The adjacent alternate lasers will be tuned to a slightly different frequency exactly out of phase with the primary frequency by 13.56 MHZ.The Nd: glass lasers have a wavelength of 1052 nm equivalent to a frequency of 2.85*10 power 8 MHZ. The methane molecule requires 435 kilo-joules per mole to dislodge the first hydrogen proton and an average of 409.3 kilo - joules per mole for the other three protons (Hutchinson, 2014). Hydroxyl requires 493 kilo - joules per mole to generate it from water (Hutchinson, 2014). A set of four focused Nd; glass lasers will have an energy of about 454.5 kilo-joules per mole, and will be strong enough to dislodge the first hydrogen proton from a methane molecule. Of course this can also be achieved by increasing the number of focused lasers to six or eight. Exactly the same neodymium laser system could be shone on the sea surface, at the base of the rising methane cloud, generating hydroxyls and nascent oxygen and thus breaking down the methane. The power source for these radio transmitters/lasers in the Arctic can come from floating or coastal nuclear or gas electric power stations and the transmitters could be located on shore or on boats, submarines, oil-rigs and aircraft. We have only 1 to 5 years to get an efficient methane destruction radio-laser system designed, tested and installed (Lucy and Alamo (HAARP) projects) before the accelerating methane eruptions take us into uncontrollable runaway global warming. Humanity will then be looking at catastrophic storm systems, a fast rate of sea level rise and coastal zone flooding with its disastrous effects on world populations and global stability.


Links


- Lucy-Alamo Projects - Hydroxyl Generation and Atmospheric Methane Destruction, by Malcolm P.R. Light (Dr) Light
https://ams.confex.com/ams/96Annual/webprogram/Paper275345.html

- North Siberian Arctic Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents, by Malcolm P.R. Light, Harold H. Hensel and Sam Carana 

- Poster created for Geophysical Congress on methane hydrates, earthquakes and global warming, Nice, France, 2002, by Malcolm Light and Carmen Solana
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html



Poster Presentation at American Meteorological Society's 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, January 10 - 14,...
Posted by Sam Carana on Monday, October 19, 2015

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice 2015 - update 11

Arctic sea ice extent has been growing rapidly recently. The image below shows extent up to October 9, 2015 (marked by red dot).


Below is a comparison of sea ice thickness as on October 6, for the years (from left to right) 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The comparison shows that decline has been strongest where sea ice used to be the thickest, i.e. over 3 meters thick.


One of the reasons why the thickest Arctic sea ice has declined so dramatically over the years is the rising ocean heat that is melting the sea ice from underneath. The image below illustrates the situation on October 5, 2015, when sea surface temperature anomalies were as high as 6.4°C, 7.4°C and 7.3°C (11.5°F 13.2°F and 13.1°F) off the North American coast, and as high as 9.4°C (16.8°F) near Svalbard.


Water temperatures are very high in the Arctic, as further illustrated by the image below showing Arctic sea surface temperature anomalies as at October 9, 2015.



Rising ocean heat is further illustrated by the graph below, showing August sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere over the years.
The situation is very dangerous, due to feedbacks and their interaction. The thicker sea ice used to act as a buffer, consuming ocean heat in the melting process. Without thicker sea ice, ocean heat threatens to melt the sea ice from below right up to the surface, causing the entire sea ice to collapse. As the sea ice declines, more open water will give rise to stronger winds and waves.

Furthermore, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space will instead be absorbed by the water, causing rapid rise of the temperature of the water. In places such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the water is on a average only 50 m deep, so warmer water is able to reach the seafloor more easily there. As ocean heat keeps rising, there's a growing risk that heat will reach the Arctic Ocean seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates in sediments at the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

The image below shows a non-linear trend that is contained in the temperature data that NASA has gathered over the years, as described in an earlier post. A polynomial trendline points at global temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2060. Even worse, a polynomial trend for the Arctic shows temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2020, 6°C by 2030 and 15°C by 2050, threatening to cause major feedbacks to kick in, including albedo changes and methane releases that will trigger runaway global warming that looks set to eventually catch up with accelerated warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of 16°C by 2052.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

Comparison of sea ice thickness on October 6, for the years (from left to right) 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, shows that...

Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, October 10, 2015

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Cyclones continue to hit Northern Hemisphere

As the 2015 El Niño gets stronger, the Northern Hemisphere continues to get hit by strong winds and cyclones. The image below shows strong winds over the Arctic Ocean, as hurricane Joaquin approaches the coast of North America.



On above image, hurricane Joaquin is clocked at a speed of 79 mph (127 km/h) on October 1, 2015. NOAA warned that on that day the maximum sustained wind speed had increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.

For reference, NOAA uses four categories:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 mph (63 km/h)
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 mph and 73 mph (63 km/h - 118 km/h)
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 mph and 110 mph (118 km/h - 177 km/h)
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 mph (over 177 km/h)

NOAA issued the image below on September 30, 2015, warning that Hurricane Joaquin is likely to cause wind damage across a large part of the eastern coast of North America.


The NOAA animation below gives an idea of the strength of hurricane Joaquin.

[ click on image to enlarge, note that this is a 1.4 MB file that may take some time to fully load ]

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures off the North American coast, as well as in the Arctic Ocean, are very high, as illustrated with the image on the right.

In the Arctic Ocean, the sea ice in many places is now less thick than it was in 2012, as illustrated by the image further below, showing sea ice thickness on October 7, 2012 (panel left) and a forecast for October 7, 2015 (panel right).

The water in the Arctic Ocean was already very warm this year. The main factor causing both these strong winds and the dramatic decrease in thickness of the multi-year sea ice is ocean heat, as also illustrated by the image below, showing high sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at September 30, 2015.


As the image below shows, nearly all the thick (over 3 m) multi-year sea ice has now disappeared, setting up a dangerous situation for the future that is much more dangerous than the situation was back in 2012. The thicker sea ice used to act as a buffer, consuming ocean heat in the melting process. Without thicker sea ice, ocean heat threatens to melt the sea ice from below right up to the surface, causing the entire sea ice to collapse as more open water will go hand in hand with stronger winds and waves. In case of such a collapse, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space will instead be absorbed by the water, causing rapid rise of the temperature of the water. In places such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the water is on a average only 50 m deep, so warmer water is able to reach the seafloor more easily there.


The water of the Arctic Ocean is very warm, not only at the surface, but even more so underneath the surface. The danger is that strong winds will mix warm water all the way down to the seafloor, where it could destabilize sediments that can contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
The image on the right illustrates the impact of winds over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf on September 26, 2015.

NSIDC specialist Julienne Stroeve recently warned"In 2007 more than 3m of bottom melt was recorded by [an] ice mass balance buoy in the region, which was primarily attributed to earlier development of open water that allowed for warming of the ocean mixed layer. But perhaps some of this is also a result of ocean mixing."

As discussed in an earlier post, sea surface anomalies of over 5°C were recorded in August 2007 in the Arctic Ocean. Strong polynya activity caused more summertime open water in the Laptev Sea, in turn causing more vertical mixing of the water column during storms in late 2007 and bottom water temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3 degrees Celsius compared to the long-term mean.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.



As the 2015 El Niño gets stronger, the Northern Hemisphere continues to get hit by strong winds and cyclones. The image...
Posted by Sam Carana on Thursday, October 1, 2015

Friday, September 25, 2015

Warming Arctic Ocean Seafloor Threatens To Cause Huge Methane Eruptions

Rapidly growing 'Seal' over Arctic Ocean



Arctic sea ice extent and especially concentration are now growing rapidly, as illustrated by the Naval Research Lab animation on the right.

This means that the sea ice is effectively sealing off the water of the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, reducing the chances of transfer of ocean heat from the water to the atmosphere. Conversely, the risk grows that ocean heat will reach the seafloor.

Furthermore, this seal makes that less moisture evaporates from the water, which together with the change of seasons results in lower hydroxyl levels at the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in turn resulting in less methane being broken down in the atmosphere over the Arctic.

Rising Ocean Heat



Water temperatures are very high in the Arctic. Above image shows Arctic sea surface temperature anomalies as at September 24, 2015. The risk of ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean seafloor has increased significantly over the years, due to rising ocean heat, as illustrated by the graph below, showing August sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere over the years. 

[ from the earlier post: August 2015 Had Highest Sea Surface Temperature on Record ]
Ocean heat is increasing because people's emissions are making the planet warmer and more than 93% of the extra heat goes into the oceans.

Ocean temperatures have been measured for a long time. Reliable records go back to at least 1880. Ever since records began, the oceans were colder than they are now. Back in history, there may have been higher temperature peaks - the last time when it was warmer than today, during the Eemian Period, peak temperature was a few tenths of a degree higher than today. In many ways, however, the situation now already looks worse than it was in the Eemian. "The warm Atlantic surface current was weaker in the high latitude during the Eemian than today", says Henning Bauch. Furthermore, carbon dioxide levels during the Eemian were well under 300 ppm. So, there could well have been more pronounced seasonal differences then, i.e. colder winters that made that the average ocean temperature didn't rise very much, despite high air temperature in summer. By contrast, today's high greenhouse levels make Earth look set for a strong ocean temperature rise.

And indeed, this is illustrated by above image, showing a polynomial trendline that points at a rise of almost 2°C by 2030. This trendline is contained in ocean temperature data from 1880 for the August Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomalies.

Cold Freshwater 'Lid' on North Atlantic



Note that the above ocean temperature graph and the above video only show sea surface temperatures. Underneath the surface, water can be even warmer. The Gulf Stream reaches its maximum temperatures off the North American coast in July. It can take some four months for this heat to travel along the Gulf Coast and reach destinations farther in the Arctic Ocean. Water warmed up off Florida in July may only reach waters beyond Svalbard by October or November.

The image below shows that on August 22, 2015, at a location near Florida marked by the green circle, sea surface temperatures were as high as 33.4°C (92.1°F), an anomaly of 3.8°C (6.8°F).


The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 22, 2015, as an indication of the huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America.


The huge amounts of energy entering the oceans translate into higher temperatures of the water and of the air over the water, as well as higher waves and stronger winds.

Ocean heat carried by the Gulf Stream from Florida via the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.
The image on the left shows that on August 25, 2015, sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were recorded as high as 17.3°C (63.1°F), as marked by the green circle, a 12.1°C (21.8°F) anomaly.

This indicates that ocean heat did reach that location from underneath the sea surface. In other words, subsurface temperatures of the water carried along by the Gulf Stream can be substantially higher than temperatures of the water at the surface, and this can be the case for the water all the way from the coast of North America to the Arctic Ocean.

The Gulf Stream keeps pushing much of this very warm water north, into the Arctic Ocean, where it threatens to unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

The combination image below shows the Gulf stream carrying warm water from the coast of North America into the Arctic Ocean on September 12, 2015, and sea surface reaching temperatures as high as 14.6°C (58.3°F) that day at a location near Svalbard (marked by green circle), an 9.8°C (17.6°F) anomaly

[ click on image to enlarge ]
The combination image below shows that sea surface temperature anomalies still are very high. The left panel shows that anomalies on September 25, 2015 were as high as +6°C (+10.8°F) in the North Atlantic (location marked by green circle), compared to 1901-2011. The right panel shows anomalies on September 26, 2015, in the North Atlantic of +0.81°C (+1.46°F) and in the North Pacific of +1.02°C (+1.84°F), compared to 1971-2000.


Below is an update on the situation. On October 5, 2015, sea surface temperature anomalies were as high as 6.4°C, 7.4°C and 7.3°C (11.5°F 13.2°F and 13.1°F) off the North American coast, and as high as 9.4°C (16.8°F) near Svalbard.


Speed of surface water was as high as 1.6 m/s (3.6 mph) on October 5, 2015. This wasn't as high as some of the speeds reached earlier in the year (a speed of 2.16 m/s or 4.7 mph was recorded on August 15, 2015), but it does indicate how strong the Gulf Stream still is at this time of year. Water speed slows down as the Gulf Stream progresses toward the Arctic Ocean. While speeds as high as 0.22 m/s and 0.24 m/s (0.5 mph) were recorded near Svalbard and Norway, overall speed was a lot lower in this part of the Atlantic.

What is making the situation worse is depicted in the images below. From 2012, huge amounts of freshwater have run off Greenland, with the accumulated freshwater now covering a huge part of the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image below. 


Since it's freshwater that is now covering a large part of the surface of the North Atlantic, it will not easily sink in the very salty water that was already there. The water in the North Atlantic was very salty due to the high evaporation, which was in turn due to high temperatures and strong winds and currents. As said, freshwater tends to stay on top of more salty water, even though the temperature of the freshwater is low, which makes this water more dense. The result of this stratification is less evaporation in the North Atlantic, and less transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere, and thus lower air temperatures than would have been the case without this colder surface water.


As meltwater accumulates at the surface of the North Atlantic, will it slow down the Gulf Stream?

More elongated curves and eddies forming where the meltwater meets the Gulf Stream appears to make that it will indeed take longer for surface water to travel from the coast of North America to the Arctic Ocean. However, the speed reached within such eddies may actually be higher. After all, the amount of extra heat that enters the oceans keeps growing and this extra energy will likely translate into warmer water carried in greater volumes and at higher speed by the Gulf Stream underneath the surface of the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, be it that the more curved patterns of the currents will increase the overall time it takes for water to travel the distance, especially at the surface.

Importantly, as global warming continues to heat up the oceans, the accumulated freshwater at the surface of the North Atlantic makes that less ocean heat can be transferred from the water to the atmosphere there, i.e. the freshwater is acting like a lid. Similarly, the Arctic sea ice is acting as a seal over the Arctic Ocean, as seasons change. In conclusion, the highest temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially at greater depth, are yet to be reached this year.


Above image illustrates that, while Arctic sea water at the surface reaches its highest temperatures in the months from July to September, water at greater depth reaches its highest temperatures only in October through to the subsequent months.

Methane Eruptions from Arctic Ocean Seafloor

In the Arctic Ocean, this more salty newly-arriving warm water will tend to dive under the freshwater that has formed from the melting of sea ice over the past few months. The danger is thus that warmer water will be pushed into the Arctic Ocean at lower depth, and that it will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Huge amounts of methane are contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor. Ice acts like a glue, holding these sediments together and preventing destabilization of methane hydrates. 

Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006)
Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates. The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment, formed when methane did escape from such hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the hydrates and destabilizing them in the process, which can result in huge abrupt releases of methane.

Heat can penetrate cracks and conduits in the seafloor, destabilizing methane held in hydrates and in the form of free gas in the sediments.

Elsewhere, methane hydrates will typically be located at great depth, making it more difficult for ocean heat to reach them. In the Arctic, much of the water is very shallow. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is on average only 50 m deep, making it easier for heat to reach the seafloor and also making that methane that escapes will have to travel through less water, reducing the chances that methane will be broken down by microbes on the way up through the water. Furthermore, hydroxyl levels are very low over the Arctic, making that the methane will not quickly be broken down in the atmosphere over the Arctic either.

The big melt in Greenland and the Arctic in general is causing further problems. Isostatic adjustment following melting can contribute to seismic events such as earthquakes, shockwaves and landslides that can destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor.


Above image shows methane levels as high as 2554 parts per billion, on the morning of September 23, 2015, in the bottom panel, and strong methane releases over the ESAS, as indicated by the solid magenta-colored areas in the top panel, on the afternoon of the previous day at lower altitude. These are indications of methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Strong winds over the ESAS, as the image below shows, may have contributed, by mixing warm water down to the seafloor.


On the morning of September 25, 2015, methane reached levels as high as 2629 ppb, while mean global level reached a record high 1846 ppb. The video below, created with Climate Reanalyzer images,  shows strong winds over the Arctic for the period September 26 to October 3, 2015.


The video below, created by Cameron Forge with Climate Reanalyzer images, shows Arctic air temperature anomalies end September - early October, 2015.



Air Temperature Rise

NOAA data show that the year-to-date land surface temperature in July was 1.47°C above the 20thcentury average on the Northern Hemisphere in 2015. A polynomial trendline based on these data points at yet another degree Celsius rise by 2030, on top of the current level, which could make it 3.27°C warmer than in 1750 for most people on Earth by the year 2030, as illustrated by the image below.

Will it be 3.27°C warmer by the year 2030?
The image below shows a non-linear trend that is contained in the temperature data that NASA has gathered over the years, as described in an earlier post. A polynomial trendline points at global temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2060. Even worse, a polynomial trend for the Arctic shows temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2020, 6°C by 2030 and 15°C by 2050, threatening to cause major feedbacks to kick in, including albedo changes and methane releases that will trigger runaway global warming that looks set to eventually catch up with accelerated warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of 16°C by 2052.
[ click on image to enlarge ]
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.



In the Arctic Ocean, the more salty newly-arriving warm water will tend to dive under the freshwater that has formed...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, September 25, 2015

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice 2015 - Update 10

It looks like sea ice has passed its minimum extent for the year 2015, as illustrated by the image below.


There are some differences between the various websites measuring extent, such as to whether the 2015 low was the third or fourth lowest. Japanese measurements show that sea ice extent was 4.26 million square km on September 14, 2015, i.e. lower than the 2011 minimum of 4.27 million square km, as illustrated by the image below.


Meanwhile, the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has announced that Arctic sea ice volume minimum was reached on September 12, 2015, with a total volume of 5,670 cubic km. The image below shows a polynomial trendline based on their annual Arctic sea ice volume minima, including this volume for 2015.


Importantly, the sea ice in many places is now less thick than it was in 2012, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea ice thickness on September 27, 2012 (panel left) and a forecast for September 27, 2015 (panel right).


The reason for the dramatic decrease in thickness of the multi-year sea ice is ocean heat, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at September 21, 2015.


The water of the Arctic Ocean is very warm, not only at the surface, but even more so underneath the surface. What has contributed to this situation is described by the image below. From 2012, huge amounts of fresh water have run off Greenland, with the accumulated fresh water now covering a huge part of the North Atlantic.

Since it's fresh water that is now covering a large part of the surface of the North Atlantic, it will not easily sink in the very salty water that was already there. The water in the North Atlantic was very salty due to the high evaporation, which was in turn due to high temperatures and strong winds and currents. As said, fresh water tends to stay on top of more salty water, even though the temperature of the fresh water is low, which makes this water more dense. The result of this stratification is less evaporation in the North Atlantic, and less transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere, and thus lower air temperatures than would have been the case without this colder surface water.


Meanwhile, global warming continues to heat up the oceans, while less of this ocean heat can now be transferred from the water to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic, since the fresh water is acting like a lid.

The danger is thus that warmer water will be pushed into the Arctic Ocean at lower depth, and that it will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean where huge amounts of methane are contained in sediments. Ice acts like a glue, holding these sediments together and preventing destabilization of methane hydrates. Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates.

The big melt in Greenland and the Arctic in general is causing further problems. Isostatic adjustment following melting can contribute to seismic events such as earthquakes, shockwaves and landslides that can destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

In the video below, by Nick Breeze, Professor Peter Wadhams discusses the situation.



The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.


The water of the Arctic Ocean is very warm, not only at the surface, but even more so underneath the surface. What has...
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Sunday, September 20, 2015

August 2015 Had Highest Sea Surface Temperature on Record

Across the oceans, the August 2015 globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average—the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record. NOAA analysis further shows that in August 2015, the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.02°C (1.84°F) warmer than it was in the 20th century, as illustrated by the graph below.


As the image below shows, the August data for sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere contain a trendline pointing at a rise of 2°C (3.6°F) well before the year 2030. In other words, if this trend continues, the Northern Hemisphere sea surface will be 2°C (3.6°F) warmer in about a dozen years time from now.


Such a temperature rise would be catastrophic, as there are huge amounts of methane contained in the form of hydrates and free gas in sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor. A relatively small temperature rise of part of these sediments could cause a huge abrupt methane eruption, further speeding up local warming and triggering further methane eruptions, in a spiral of runaway warming that will cause mass destruction and extinction, as described in the reference page The Mechanism.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan page.


August data for sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere contain a trendline pointing at a rise of 2...

Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, September 20, 2015

Friday, September 18, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 9

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice had reached a level of 4.45 million square kilometers on September 16, 2015 (end of dark blue line at center of image).


NSIDC has meanwhile called the 2015 minimum, but the first sentence of their post hastens to add that on September 11, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum for 2015,  at 4.41 million square kilometers (1.70 million square miles), putting 2015 in the fourth lowest place since satellite records began. Arctic sea ice minimum was lower only in 2012 (dotted line), 2007 (light blue line) and 2011 (orange line). Sea ice extent was 4.413 million square kilometers both on September 9, 2015, as well as on September 10 and 11, 2015.

September 9 would be early for the sea ice to reach its minimum, as a comparison with earlier years on above image illustrates. The dark blue line on above image shows that sea ice extent fell slightly on September 16, compared to the day before, and is now below the 2011 extent (orange line) for this time of the year. Over the next few days, sea ice extent may well fall somewhat further, and reach a level below the 2011 minimum, thus reaching the third lowest minimum extent since record began. This could eventuate due to winds compacting the sea ice.

More importantly, sea ice thickness is still falling, as illustrated by the image below showing the sea ice thickness on September 9 in the left panel and a forecast for thickness on September 24 in the right panel.


The image below compares sea ice thickness between September 24, 2012 (left panel) with that forecast for September 24, 2015 (right panel).


Above image illustrates why the situation in 2015 is even more threatening than it was in 2012. Only the ice that is colored light green, yellow and red is more than 3 meters thick. In 2015, ocean heat has been melting the sea ice from underneath. So, even while the currently lower temperatures of the air may have resulted in a slight increase in extent over the past week, the added ice is very thin. Ocean heat first of all goes into melting the thickest sea ice, i.e. the parts that are meters below the surface. This because the water at surface level is colder than the water underneath the surface. This explains why much of the water surface will remain covered by (very thin) ice as air temperatures are now falling (compared to air temperatures over the past few months).

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as at September 17, 2015.


In conclusion, while the sea ice appears to have survived the 2015 melting season without collapsing, the threat that this will occur in the coming years is ominous. Lack of multi-year sea ice makes that sea ice is in a very vulnerable situation. Total collapse of sea ice is therefore more likely to happen in the coming years. Every time ocean heat will arrive in the Arctic Ocean at its fullest strength in future, this heat will no longer be able to be fully absorbed by the process of melting thick sea ice, so what's left of the sea ice will melt very quickly.

There is a strengthening El Niño, while more open water increases the chance that storms will develop that will push the last remnants of the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Storms can also mix warm surface waters all the way down to the seafloor, as discussed in this earlier post. Cyclones that emerge with greater force due to high sea surface temperatures further increase this danger.

The big danger is that ocean heat will cause methane contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor to be released abruptly in large quantities, triggering further methane releases spiraling into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.


Below is a text-only version of this post for radio.




Sea ice thickness on September 24, 2012 (left panel) compared to a forecast for September 24, 2015 (right panel). This...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, September 18, 2015