tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30467014236237954232024-03-19T01:57:03.951-07:00Arctic News<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><a href="/p/climateplan.html">Climate Plan</a> | <a href="/p/about.html">About</a> | <a href="/p/faq.html">FAQ</a> | <a href="/p/threat.html">Threat</a> | <a href="/p/extinction.html">Extinct</a> | <a href="/p/feedbacks.html">Feedback</a> | <a href="/p/action.html">Action</a> | <a href="/p/policies.html">Policies</a> | <a href="/p/feebates.html">Feebates</a> | <a href="/p/debate.html">Debate</a> | <a href="/p/contact.html">Contact</a> | <a href="/p/more.html">More</a>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comBlogger758125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-25399215996285839842024-03-18T01:25:00.000-07:002024-03-18T14:41:59.002-07:00Tragedy set to unfold in Tropics (update)The temperature is rising rapidly in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E). The image below shows the situation over the years through March 12, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.822°C and 1.3°C above 1979-2000.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0cgSouJfLprz7uk91T4JoGRWiVJ7gmyzRpDT-B13a1eLH5HavHrt2aIiUQi6iOi0P9uOX182ZGQxa0yyeDhyDsgU-BkT7K43gGh_9w_YyBk0Wnl53kPpTYa401c-WqbckC9UoDHfL8yCMYLHAJc3CZRdM2zIG9ywZ8375a8N3f9OYbpAASS_lnttvN4/s1100/March-12-2024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="1100" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0cgSouJfLprz7uk91T4JoGRWiVJ7gmyzRpDT-B13a1eLH5HavHrt2aIiUQi6iOi0P9uOX182ZGQxa0yyeDhyDsgU-BkT7K43gGh_9w_YyBk0Wnl53kPpTYa401c-WqbckC9UoDHfL8yCMYLHAJc3CZRdM2zIG9ywZ8375a8N3f9OYbpAASS_lnttvN4/w640-h428/March-12-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>By comparison, the highest temperature on record was reached on April 24, 2016, when it was 26.827°C, i.e. a little bit higher, but then it was just 1°C above 1979-2000, as the above image also shows. </div><div><br /></div><div>The image below shows temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM98KAVtA7JiDw49cU_uFB_B4-iO6URYP7NmT8a5OEkhdSQVp59AIicqkbtcPjbJhCq8XePvLUeo3FppS6fH07r891F4J9RQQcThjh4OY35z0_YeyejN2XO41ZDPZe8PD2-E2l9Tmf4sftqOc7_kSoBL36722zkE0EQusz8onN2_nNQYuEI0yC0xRZDus/s1200/February-2024-Tropics.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM98KAVtA7JiDw49cU_uFB_B4-iO6URYP7NmT8a5OEkhdSQVp59AIicqkbtcPjbJhCq8XePvLUeo3FppS6fH07r891F4J9RQQcThjh4OY35z0_YeyejN2XO41ZDPZe8PD2-E2l9Tmf4sftqOc7_kSoBL36722zkE0EQusz8onN2_nNQYuEI0yC0xRZDus/w640-h336/February-2024-Tropics.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Note that the anomalies in the above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a> base, anomalies will be higher.<br /><br />The danger is that tragedy will unfold over the next few months, as temperatures look set to exceed the 2016 peak in the tropics and cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.<br /><br /><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b><br /><br />The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.<div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div><b><div><b><br /></b></div></b></div></div><br /><b>Links</b><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer <br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/">https://climatereanalyzer.org</a><br /><br />• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a><br /><br />• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><br /><br />Earlier versions of this post are discussed at facebook at:</div><div>Mar 11, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161</a><br />Feb 22, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161</a><br />Feb 21, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161</a><br />Jan 28, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161</a><br />
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<div><br /></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-33488965613994631022024-03-15T20:51:00.000-07:002024-03-16T19:37:09.581-07:00CO2 rise is accelerating<p>On March 15, 2024, the daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 427.93 parts per million (ppm), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyslkP0jOrc9CXu_ijzPR0FC1hXnZS3vdf0mjKil60nX2eXa7bC5BqDO1Xw4cBNt5q3NNEb9lzqkuiDvUM_9IjOLM8Fpqfsv10q_FgdeSxm9I1GeEwBMnutMUBx3xGkkY5CKKm6EEn_vrPLPjn4Qj8PpuMykzFNchvZ4aX2g95eoDAcsVrxzGq0kHUS1M/s1200/March-16-2024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="849" data-original-width="1200" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyslkP0jOrc9CXu_ijzPR0FC1hXnZS3vdf0mjKil60nX2eXa7bC5BqDO1Xw4cBNt5q3NNEb9lzqkuiDvUM_9IjOLM8Fpqfsv10q_FgdeSxm9I1GeEwBMnutMUBx3xGkkY5CKKm6EEn_vrPLPjn4Qj8PpuMykzFNchvZ4aX2g95eoDAcsVrxzGq0kHUS1M/w640-h452/March-16-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<p>This is the highest daily in situ average in the NOAA record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ for the last 31 days at Mauna Loa. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGAGj6jBYKmxOD8wD9nbbB1qumG8qAYRLp9egsZKFvZfju8woBU3w-XdrORnTGQitrjqK-mk4MwgBj001clLHr__ImdgrsnV5dUWCjR5nxUHRy-zri7uYo4HCqdpS2Ni5RgM46jS5nQtL4tMgOWPWfaitooXatFaqIJ-6C7u556887b-kbKctd_4LJe_A/s978/31-days.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="978" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGAGj6jBYKmxOD8wD9nbbB1qumG8qAYRLp9egsZKFvZfju8woBU3w-XdrORnTGQitrjqK-mk4MwgBj001clLHr__ImdgrsnV5dUWCjR5nxUHRy-zri7uYo4HCqdpS2Ni5RgM46jS5nQtL4tMgOWPWfaitooXatFaqIJ-6C7u556887b-kbKctd_4LJe_A/w640-h440/31-days.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The image below, adapted from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, shows that CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.80 ppm on March 14, 2024. The background shows six months of CO₂ ending March 15, 2024. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn6yTEnK5LPqX9DWIFu8xpHs4jU8bZU4_QSVyIfAY0NhXI4Ys4mNUlAyVoMD79689GNFpKlaa7_yzvuCOVidfWDAMFmYIoF9xlvsmBzRXin0iTKZet6u_wK-FOKjxxhIBUHc9oeS14ESQf2DQ15LO95F7KSySTwCl-Y7rFF5raUTlzR71p5DDBJPjl6u8/s1006/March-14-15-2024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="1006" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn6yTEnK5LPqX9DWIFu8xpHs4jU8bZU4_QSVyIfAY0NhXI4Ys4mNUlAyVoMD79689GNFpKlaa7_yzvuCOVidfWDAMFmYIoF9xlvsmBzRXin0iTKZet6u_wK-FOKjxxhIBUHc9oeS14ESQf2DQ15LO95F7KSySTwCl-Y7rFF5raUTlzR71p5DDBJPjl6u8/w640-h348/March-14-15-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 425.78 ppm recently, a growth of 5.7 ppm compared to one year ago. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvYFbYsxn7zREzo16IdgeBI1ZHsyYNSBU3pFD2cZj9167fZ3lqa501Elp8TAlV92LSIw7-SzucfMuypqIuDriQBjs_GB357bpge6OLJWcZ3_E4D8N-03xgyPJOW0m3zPchE-hHo4Rwmv8xYI7sRqIjfp18JNaH7dXff_K94DGv59YwAjO3kp9yjbuvd-0/s925/weekly-CO2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="925" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvYFbYsxn7zREzo16IdgeBI1ZHsyYNSBU3pFD2cZj9167fZ3lqa501Elp8TAlV92LSIw7-SzucfMuypqIuDriQBjs_GB357bpge6OLJWcZ3_E4D8N-03xgyPJOW0m3zPchE-hHo4Rwmv8xYI7sRqIjfp18JNaH7dXff_K94DGv59YwAjO3kp9yjbuvd-0/w640-h380/weekly-CO2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu8Px3jur7BvOyLIxPRohvKVIjDnuuUU0aaRxEaYvNqVLPFa9itwpygzS6q1jAwsI6LuI__5pEi2xN5UwSepCWAySzkBSFt4SfR7HwFNfBoUTIZ1ogvWELB9HUPIe83z6FWvqC40nz5TWaHqVJn9pint_entKmAuxQXyMQQTz2B5zL5z96mpeJBFtXExc/s920/CO2-growth.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="920" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu8Px3jur7BvOyLIxPRohvKVIjDnuuUU0aaRxEaYvNqVLPFa9itwpygzS6q1jAwsI6LuI__5pEi2xN5UwSepCWAySzkBSFt4SfR7HwFNfBoUTIZ1ogvWELB9HUPIe83z6FWvqC40nz5TWaHqVJn9pint_entKmAuxQXyMQQTz2B5zL5z96mpeJBFtXExc/w640-h382/CO2-growth.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p><b>Environmental crimes</b><br /><br />The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. <br /><br />Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!</p>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRd_WbRRGSFjggSZM6GHT_3cQ3uVZ5u2jeUcNn4qVx3OTTz6C6zOU_GEaxJUlaXnnHZBVjkMpe8wlQpnnZRCUfbPWZjZKKCJ9p-kRWw1e0-HcDWQ29lUruJhNbcnFIVZQ3XbBpaid7pV4/s1600/planetary-omnicide.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRd_WbRRGSFjggSZM6GHT_3cQ3uVZ5u2jeUcNn4qVx3OTTz6C6zOU_GEaxJUlaXnnHZBVjkMpe8wlQpnnZRCUfbPWZjZKKCJ9p-kRWw1e0-HcDWQ29lUruJhNbcnFIVZQ3XbBpaid7pV4/s320/planetary-omnicide.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<div>The image below is from the post <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html" target="_blank">Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth</a>, by Andrew Glikson</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizpW9cgU-upXyTsHdfTgnb8r-kDBBcbF71qUckXjlw1rPIyEuJDlIT61qXzWpaUuhrDlkl95Qm-jSRDB7H5_1hIGnXqZll97p6siEEUyxwC8sHtAMjDlMCtdB9aJaI3fTVd2zhyCo_1Ho/s1920/1920x1258-Planetwide-Ecocide.jpg" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1258" data-original-width="1920" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizpW9cgU-upXyTsHdfTgnb8r-kDBBcbF71qUckXjlw1rPIyEuJDlIT61qXzWpaUuhrDlkl95Qm-jSRDB7H5_1hIGnXqZll97p6siEEUyxwC8sHtAMjDlMCtdB9aJaI3fTVd2zhyCo_1Ho/w640-h420/1920x1258-Planetwide-Ecocide.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br />If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOeadBaKLkHYH14d_mVEYQ4W0kim_cGf-NKU4auCyUI37wNQ4Kc9amEdj5VcPUf0CV3V1joUTK0vVSXiVj_E77ZlOwrgQleKd-sbIXRETQd30ugtG1ogxAk5oESjNSsWcM9aZu0xP4_Lc/s1600/Climate-crimes.jpg" style="background-color: white; color: #992211; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOeadBaKLkHYH14d_mVEYQ4W0kim_cGf-NKU4auCyUI37wNQ4Kc9amEdj5VcPUf0CV3V1joUTK0vVSXiVj_E77ZlOwrgQleKd-sbIXRETQd30ugtG1ogxAk5oESjNSsWcM9aZu0xP4_Lc/s1600/Climate-crimes.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html" target="_blank">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/937229/belgium-becomes-first-in-eu-to-recognise-ecocide-as-international-crime-tbtb">Belgium</a> has recognised ecocide as international crime and the <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/02/27/revolutionary-eu-criminalises-the-most-serious-cases-of-ecosystem-destruction">EU Parliament</a> has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction. </div><br /><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b><br /><br />The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.<br /><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 14.85px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><br /></div><b>Links<br /></b><br />• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />• Scripps Institution of Oceanography<br /><a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu">https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa <br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html">https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html</a><br /><br />• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html">https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html</a><br /><br />• Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson <br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html">
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html</a><div><br /></div><div>• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime<a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html"> </a></div><div><a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/937229/belgium-becomes-first-in-eu-to-recognise-ecocide-as-international-crime-tbtb">https://www.brusselstimes.com/937229/belgium-becomes-first-in-eu-to-recognise-ecocide-as-international-crime-tbtb</a><br />discussed on facebook at: <br /><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/8012665172096853">https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/8012665172096853</a><br /><br />• ‘Revolutionary’: EU Parliament votes to criminalise most serious cases of ecosystem destruction <br /><a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/02/27/revolutionary-eu-criminalises-the-most-serious-cases-of-ecosystem-destruction">https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/02/27/revolutionary-eu-criminalises-the-most-serious-cases-of-ecosystem-destruction</a><br />discussed on facebook at: <br /><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/7961500320546672">https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/7961500320546672</a></div><br />• How long do we have?<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html</a><br /><br /><div>• Arctic Ocean February 2020<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html</a></div><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><br /><br /><br />
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<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="735" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168922702790161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-22159973703818282522024-03-02T21:25:00.000-08:002024-03-14T19:24:24.708-07:00Arctic sea ice set for steep decline<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwVjq7knK4qvCP9rSRCNSlmVmxVYlsMMDV_bWsslbb69Im9ezIEo5DBt3G3jbpR5AHO9XYQ_TnKQeTyOpMx_2jA1Xo1GkvcBjX3Q_4Ry48sSuY4g6Oi0iIOvR-XvO7Si0_8pEMLxhPnV2Jfj2QW7n3U80yAeDK8kbr0E1iWf4I8r31LBbfKAgXAc0xp4/s1029/Temperature-anomaly-February-2024.png" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1029" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwVjq7knK4qvCP9rSRCNSlmVmxVYlsMMDV_bWsslbb69Im9ezIEo5DBt3G3jbpR5AHO9XYQ_TnKQeTyOpMx_2jA1Xo1GkvcBjX3Q_4Ry48sSuY4g6Oi0iIOvR-XvO7Si0_8pEMLxhPnV2Jfj2QW7n3U80yAeDK8kbr0E1iWf4I8r31LBbfKAgXAc0xp4/w640-h488/Temperature-anomaly-February-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />The February 2024 temperature (at 2 meter) was much higher than in 1951-1980, especially in the Arctic, as the above image shows.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGyAueqyd7TiXrDUGbaDU4JnqGxvnWfkc1996yJDeZmeTmXtMJSEwCApGzo-bIzfkXzXbSqy_3dF76WgPLMiEekJkwjnnpaLBG_SGfU9HRH8Uc-LRPPvjL0VejMFG804gjVl78dvG2cTcbmJ1iL1yQx9Sahq0upBnYF8P6jWVd5lcHp__jG-yrBFzNlEU/s760/NASA-February-2024.png" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="760" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGyAueqyd7TiXrDUGbaDU4JnqGxvnWfkc1996yJDeZmeTmXtMJSEwCApGzo-bIzfkXzXbSqy_3dF76WgPLMiEekJkwjnnpaLBG_SGfU9HRH8Uc-LRPPvjL0VejMFG804gjVl78dvG2cTcbmJ1iL1yQx9Sahq0upBnYF8P6jWVd5lcHp__jG-yrBFzNlEU/w640-h402/NASA-February-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />The above image is adapted from NASA and shows an average February 2024 temperature anomaly of 1.44°C above 1951-1980, with anomalies showing up as high as 11°C. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOAGmGROl4as7LrJV_xCbIhTxu1CMT9Z4AdmYTmkYiELm1OPfxe8lzLjMs3naP5p4h8gMzEklWnMhmgUp8xPt1Sp0FptQDNiGtDfpr-iGGjK8h1uxNXXiS3FPWqxzkryme1aTztif2y751E4_bwXiN7_WZW2UadsPEO5wQQt2pk3CHf-ZerDwEws323sg/s1200/February-2024-temperature.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOAGmGROl4as7LrJV_xCbIhTxu1CMT9Z4AdmYTmkYiELm1OPfxe8lzLjMs3naP5p4h8gMzEklWnMhmgUp8xPt1Sp0FptQDNiGtDfpr-iGGjK8h1uxNXXiS3FPWqxzkryme1aTztif2y751E4_bwXiN7_WZW2UadsPEO5wQQt2pk3CHf-ZerDwEws323sg/w640-h336/February-2024-temperature.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. </div><br />Two trends are added, the blue trend is based on all data (Jan.1880-Feb.2024) and the magenta trend is based on a shorter period (Jan.2010-Feb.2024), to better reflect variables such as El Niño and non-linear feedbacks as discussed in the page <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">Feedbacks in the Arctic</a> and in this <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html">recent post</a>. <div><br /><b>Ocean temperature</b><br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYXQytLMxJNlpU69aZyXjwvFPyW4uQfFOajBHP297asRAdmxSTFr8R8ajCcioIAiT9Cg4EPwEb3YG2cdsbWWptdGENRwNTfsEjBaJQ3JHx8TekmBC_rX1Yc2u4NLlXQRWPEjANPPEhYusoDNkIH3csyyQh-ABjDS0HLdber3FukbA0HvW5dlg6ucsSoM/s1091/SST-Mar-10-2024-new.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="707" data-original-width="1091" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYXQytLMxJNlpU69aZyXjwvFPyW4uQfFOajBHP297asRAdmxSTFr8R8ajCcioIAiT9Cg4EPwEb3YG2cdsbWWptdGENRwNTfsEjBaJQ3JHx8TekmBC_rX1Yc2u4NLlXQRWPEjANPPEhYusoDNkIH3csyyQh-ABjDS0HLdber3FukbA0HvW5dlg6ucsSoM/w640-h414/SST-Mar-10-2024-new.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>Sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high of 21.22°C on March 10, 2024, in the Climate Reanalyzer daily records that go back to 1981. </div><br />Sea surface temperatures may get even higher later this year. What could make the sea surface temperature go up even higher?<div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieobqUHwAkDLd-vBYAKoG-vJcLKQ7QU9Rw4U3yBMo4TNTDuwwEkw7RmRbwiBxUY0SD3_Hh6B-9eZP7-zJ0JLd8TrVl-z9yFXauIWAmUZhuUXso_fXAc7XVvEGxMinLaUoyUKqLv2ZL2bQxMc1H4SwqaoHWC7yWujlzgKc6nQRyRjXEuFkZIim5c6AbGk4/s521/El-Ni%C3%B1o-probability.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="521" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieobqUHwAkDLd-vBYAKoG-vJcLKQ7QU9Rw4U3yBMo4TNTDuwwEkw7RmRbwiBxUY0SD3_Hh6B-9eZP7-zJ0JLd8TrVl-z9yFXauIWAmUZhuUXso_fXAc7XVvEGxMinLaUoyUKqLv2ZL2bQxMc1H4SwqaoHWC7yWujlzgKc6nQRyRjXEuFkZIim5c6AbGk4/s320/El-Ni%C3%B1o-probability.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div>The highest daily sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. </div>
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<div>This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023. </div>
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<div>There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">NOAA</a> predictions updated February 26, 2024.</div>
<br />The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, January 2000-February 2024 NOAA data (degrees Celsius).<br /><br />
<div>After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperatures have come down only a little bit in Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, raising the potential for a huge rise in ocean heat later in 2024 that threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and abruptly enter the atmosphere.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvLmSiSfLfG3TcB6SRmxDoceSEARiunNEL6pPgaQlFnGTzstZLMfMxTMKfVyRqQMPWt7xHOzKvvZzp9k6zFEg5NLNq_TLHwFGGwD6L47234Vtvu4mEqu0o3-DsjtEw3bZuCQAWii9j5qK_tYqpjdJelbUoIMuF3s-NB1kzsRqszfyc8n2bmLarPrzpovQ/s1200/February-2024-SSTA-NH.png" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvLmSiSfLfG3TcB6SRmxDoceSEARiunNEL6pPgaQlFnGTzstZLMfMxTMKfVyRqQMPWt7xHOzKvvZzp9k6zFEg5NLNq_TLHwFGGwD6L47234Vtvu4mEqu0o3-DsjtEw3bZuCQAWii9j5qK_tYqpjdJelbUoIMuF3s-NB1kzsRqszfyc8n2bmLarPrzpovQ/w640-h336/February-2024-SSTA-NH.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div>Ocean heat content keeps rising at a rate of change that is non-linear, as illustrated by the image below, by <a href="https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators">Zack Labe</a>.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgSBH0dug0uP34e2ojP-9A_hKVOqnIMOTykGoNfoXR2n6QMrT8UOKq0d1gOFhk4rQiDcC3igWuWsctEqfFP3TNBwVYAYsgE4guxpxCDCPpzZieGdSJUxyjCnfStfOYB4tLg7WzIHocVk__l4_qVkyVbV9hGGh3jKrCtgymBLxfLyvUMGKT5x1YInQ-ClQ/s1800/ohc_1955-2023_0-700.png" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1800" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgSBH0dug0uP34e2ojP-9A_hKVOqnIMOTykGoNfoXR2n6QMrT8UOKq0d1gOFhk4rQiDcC3igWuWsctEqfFP3TNBwVYAYsgE4guxpxCDCPpzZieGdSJUxyjCnfStfOYB4tLg7WzIHocVk__l4_qVkyVbV9hGGh3jKrCtgymBLxfLyvUMGKT5x1YInQ-ClQ/w640-h426/ohc_1955-2023_0-700.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div><b>North Atlantic</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The animation below, from <a href="https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393">Nahel Belgherze</a>, illustrates how much hotter the North Atlantic has been over the past 365 days, while a big rise in temperature can be expected over the next few months, due to the change in season. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv9Bgh8EaPCNo4iXpiMl9sHhW3rvQUA_slAVIs0j8WiAtp2WjoLnZ2PbegrVEUZNIWmkAMAIEkgTfk0FodYBtzUng1KT0CzPPLEZ3pC1zu1nq-J2W3IvyfD8EG-3HlJ0gCLGIaCBUs3XXAARHhNxiB5BlOus1jLgkFh73mtNELnDMNbh40inRhDoU-Sp4/s600/North-Atlantic-SST.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="600" height="532" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv9Bgh8EaPCNo4iXpiMl9sHhW3rvQUA_slAVIs0j8WiAtp2WjoLnZ2PbegrVEUZNIWmkAMAIEkgTfk0FodYBtzUng1KT0CzPPLEZ3pC1zu1nq-J2W3IvyfD8EG-3HlJ0gCLGIaCBUs3XXAARHhNxiB5BlOus1jLgkFh73mtNELnDMNbh40inRhDoU-Sp4/w640-h532/North-Atlantic-SST.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>In February 2024, the temperature (at 2 meter) over the North Atlantic was 1.927°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjprm8ny2O7CMgOeQIX3oARCAtTfWRXbOs5dA-dml4mrKIx2_TlNOpUJklB2an6v4vbz_TZqpHSA27J5Bo9aPsDeSUwq1mfwv0-HrlxjKt4v7FWMBwqBikWXinisPUP685chiFYqY1_WXsrgJDch7nHDX1DPKeNKdZePkuwcgqR0lAK6yc3eO9Z89GaUQQ/s1200/Temperature-anomaly-North-Atlantic.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjprm8ny2O7CMgOeQIX3oARCAtTfWRXbOs5dA-dml4mrKIx2_TlNOpUJklB2an6v4vbz_TZqpHSA27J5Bo9aPsDeSUwq1mfwv0-HrlxjKt4v7FWMBwqBikWXinisPUP685chiFYqY1_WXsrgJDch7nHDX1DPKeNKdZePkuwcgqR0lAK6yc3eO9Z89GaUQQ/w640-h336/Temperature-anomaly-North-Atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div>The map below shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 in February 2024. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKTbtFPMCE8x1CRRudGubA7ccm2MysUrM26sPJsqOokCwTmQ0pMfW5VP-ern9QiJyOuS0YoypKn2AXy6PlMGz4mzqTk3qhTLEdx1uaqz-rZQVU6VcUaO4WkjoxUWUYaGE4950RVCuI_le70BbVO6_mIYctXZiFqmY97ED5AGKlqwpSOGwPUnRTozuKA7s/s970/North-Atlantic-February-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="939" data-original-width="970" height="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKTbtFPMCE8x1CRRudGubA7ccm2MysUrM26sPJsqOokCwTmQ0pMfW5VP-ern9QiJyOuS0YoypKn2AXy6PlMGz4mzqTk3qhTLEdx1uaqz-rZQVU6VcUaO4WkjoxUWUYaGE4950RVCuI_le70BbVO6_mIYctXZiFqmY97ED5AGKlqwpSOGwPUnRTozuKA7s/w640-h620/North-Atlantic-February-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
<div><b>Arctic surface air temperature</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div>The surface air temperature in the Arctic (66.5-90°N, 0-360°E) was 5.2°C above 1979-2000 on March 3, 2024, the highest anomaly on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq6Ukf1yWVn45Ensw9jIK-siMHxODxesLhQJUkYDUe6JFP31TbLX_KTX0flcB3TbicAmG7laebSKG4l3kX6_2Z8oa9wTge3JlhyVKsDoOVz_Lwa_AfUSLxhQbu-jjxa3kqVPQzXm1bgMAIVZi5mSAd8u7iRSaFyPeDqwmaRW_ibd2iTYumFY20JuyQ-uU/s1112/Arctic-March-3-2024.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="1112" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq6Ukf1yWVn45Ensw9jIK-siMHxODxesLhQJUkYDUe6JFP31TbLX_KTX0flcB3TbicAmG7laebSKG4l3kX6_2Z8oa9wTge3JlhyVKsDoOVz_Lwa_AfUSLxhQbu-jjxa3kqVPQzXm1bgMAIVZi5mSAd8u7iRSaFyPeDqwmaRW_ibd2iTYumFY20JuyQ-uU/w640-h430/Arctic-March-3-2024.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><div><b><br />Arctic sea ice</b></div>
<br />
<div>As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.746 million km² on March 6, 2024. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8SDs7_OETaewqPrSz8T_SAt9XrhLnVrLBrEls4NL4vngmCdDKmJZpwQeKG7fXW-9AklaoNIjzrt7hZjvHHOUlVZVHZgu_lK78SaSKQMGj-H7KgmZl_lsasQ7Qu-tKWEzUd0eQ5DNkdTYgJvr5J1qrXkBcHzyjU_lFqxhr9k7ZCGJ3w8beYmZxmAFqkI/s1122/Extent-March-6-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1122" height="516" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8SDs7_OETaewqPrSz8T_SAt9XrhLnVrLBrEls4NL4vngmCdDKmJZpwQeKG7fXW-9AklaoNIjzrt7hZjvHHOUlVZVHZgu_lK78SaSKQMGj-H7KgmZl_lsasQ7Qu-tKWEzUd0eQ5DNkdTYgJvr5J1qrXkBcHzyjU_lFqxhr9k7ZCGJ3w8beYmZxmAFqkI/w640-h516/Extent-March-6-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>As the above image shows, there are a few years with lower sea ice extent during this time of year than in 2024, which could be due to more water vapor in the air causing more precipitation in the Arctic. At this time of year, Arctic sea ice has typically reached its maximum annual extent and goes into steep descend until half September. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivsVsqJInJ49EuavJZPy5-l7i-o0hhjTXLl2PnRai0tTk8N9asFCs34K9lz2Qncvsssp7diqUTeVTCr40vl7X91TrvPWP9UK8rebLbkasBeyJHohvkE3qX2jxsGz6QfLzp1hx9xgKkj0Dvl526bMwd6hoN0_AO2uwSgqsQEwwhlrRZurQUyQIKMZ1Dtz0/s1079/Volume-March-12-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="887" data-original-width="1079" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivsVsqJInJ49EuavJZPy5-l7i-o0hhjTXLl2PnRai0tTk8N9asFCs34K9lz2Qncvsssp7diqUTeVTCr40vl7X91TrvPWP9UK8rebLbkasBeyJHohvkE3qX2jxsGz6QfLzp1hx9xgKkj0Dvl526bMwd6hoN0_AO2uwSgqsQEwwhlrRZurQUyQIKMZ1Dtz0/w640-h526/Volume-March-12-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume is already at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic. Given that Arctic sea ice currently is not at a record low extent for the time of year, this indicates that the sea ice is very thin, due to ocean heat causing sea ice to melt from below. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months, as also discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html">this one</a>. <br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-opIlpPxQnXaY612dKLj1r3qulvfIwu6UmKyzkU7nh54u_vDj2IGW9cbXVqIxN6JB0KXGmab7o28dzmBxntRUWBCIldsd4pLzZtsSHEjpYKD5Zvxp13twIBajljdfjowmOF7Os8dAkHUTnR4GWE85iD93ImIfPOXhI7PSZyAk8rQVDaM8x57xeEJXJ3w/s1194/Map-March-11-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1194" data-original-width="1100" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-opIlpPxQnXaY612dKLj1r3qulvfIwu6UmKyzkU7nh54u_vDj2IGW9cbXVqIxN6JB0KXGmab7o28dzmBxntRUWBCIldsd4pLzZtsSHEjpYKD5Zvxp13twIBajljdfjowmOF7Os8dAkHUTnR4GWE85iD93ImIfPOXhI7PSZyAk8rQVDaM8x57xeEJXJ3w/w590-h640/Map-March-11-2024.jpg" width="590" /></a></div><div><b>Emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases keep rising</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, emissions keep rising. The image below, adapted from IEA, shows the increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1900-2023. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBp41wUVbj2Ml-8yFMckpHIA55E-u2A81rH_03JqhHr4dIbkvFW-Cq-UmNBskIb0M2wfTWLDoUGGvFeu1Hxb6LXtybFgfPYcbARShPcck1T8OEum1M-iWix6yg2woXEoYxUD3xhz9IofZsXzNawL9OkXU8CFkI3iDhmJG5Sd6JCqNCCmghDwSH09wzwpI/s1074/increase-in-energy-related-co2-emissions-1900-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="1074" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBp41wUVbj2Ml-8yFMckpHIA55E-u2A81rH_03JqhHr4dIbkvFW-Cq-UmNBskIb0M2wfTWLDoUGGvFeu1Hxb6LXtybFgfPYcbARShPcck1T8OEum1M-iWix6yg2woXEoYxUD3xhz9IofZsXzNawL9OkXU8CFkI3iDhmJG5Sd6JCqNCCmghDwSH09wzwpI/w640-h288/increase-in-energy-related-co2-emissions-1900-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>February 2024 CO₂ was about 425 ppm (background image below). February 2023 CO₂ was 420.3 ppm (inset right). The highest annual rise on record is about 3 ppm, reached in 1998 and in 2015/2016 (inset left). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWBXr8fIJ_Ela84EEkAol9RAvM3PzvkeTgznBsHVWlIDFch7mtIwHnWUKn4vqwtzEO0H4CGNyMSnlDt18wakn7t6N0HeDxRP7_iuslpDoIEUdhEDfyh0GeiRN8VWvHZ_KtI2rC-2Emg9fEleSkLBSA-oJyjHv4whsoQf4_lV5SLDggKm_m12pjaorsrNk/s1000/February-CO2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1000" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWBXr8fIJ_Ela84EEkAol9RAvM3PzvkeTgznBsHVWlIDFch7mtIwHnWUKn4vqwtzEO0H4CGNyMSnlDt18wakn7t6N0HeDxRP7_iuslpDoIEUdhEDfyh0GeiRN8VWvHZ_KtI2rC-2Emg9fEleSkLBSA-oJyjHv4whsoQf4_lV5SLDggKm_m12pjaorsrNk/w640-h320/February-CO2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><b><br />The threat</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The threat of a huge, abrupt temperature rise has been described many times before, e.g. on <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">the Threat page</a> that describes many elements contributing to the threat, both cumulatively and interactively, with some of the content dating back as far as 2007. Another page with more background is <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">the Extinction page</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Further illustrating the threat is the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. The image shows what the temperature anomaly (at 2 meter and compared to 1851-1900) could be by 2100. Such a temperature rise may unfold much earlier when including numerous <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">feedbacks</a> kicking in strongly.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd9-GuQN3_ed9rEi8C7dOXGNYfasFdEwpWtmYaLamPNWtwYq_b2AYGHGu5eEEf3VOmw7Ccyec_sOs-U8CdpfxNFTdGVpPgwBmIU_RIVLV9-7nZ7QhLnjfzdWqIR_Xr9lmggzdIKnGVByts8SjryEYAPZELEHWR4dkowvA0z4tR8YHXpaHDVXfrXZLHxPk/s1024/2100-temperature-anomaly-vs-1851-1900-cmip6-ssp585.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1024" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd9-GuQN3_ed9rEi8C7dOXGNYfasFdEwpWtmYaLamPNWtwYq_b2AYGHGu5eEEf3VOmw7Ccyec_sOs-U8CdpfxNFTdGVpPgwBmIU_RIVLV9-7nZ7QhLnjfzdWqIR_Xr9lmggzdIKnGVByts8SjryEYAPZELEHWR4dkowvA0z4tR8YHXpaHDVXfrXZLHxPk/w640-h490/2100-temperature-anomaly-vs-1851-1900-cmip6-ssp585.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>What can strongly contribute to such a rise is that, without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. </div>
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<div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s1600/Buffer.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s640/Buffer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ The buffer is gone - <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Latent Heat Tipping Point</a> crossed ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b></div>
<div><b><br /></b>The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
<br /><b>Links</b><br />
<br />• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E)<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a><br /><br />• NASA - Temperature Analysis<br /><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x1ejq31n xd10rxx x1sy0etr x17r0tee x972fbf xcfux6l x1qhh985 xm0m39n x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp</a><br /><br />
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (February 26, 2024 update)<br /><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a> <br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>• Ocean heat content - image by Zack Labe</div><div><a href="https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators">https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• North Atlantic daily sea surface temperature - animation by Nahel Belgherze<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-align: inherit; white-space: inherit;"><br /></span><a href="https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393">https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume</div><div><a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume">http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report</div><div><a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023">https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023</a></div><div><br /></div>• Keeling Curve, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego - CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii <div><a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu">https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NOOA - Monthly Averages CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii </div><div><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html">https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NOAA - annual increase of CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii <br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html">https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Feedbacks in the Arctic</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• The Threat</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>
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<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="812" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168887252165161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-91536972232431159982024-02-23T20:53:00.000-08:002024-02-24T17:57:40.853-08:00Stephen Salter, a giant in combating climate change passes away<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3vmg3KT8HhAo2rkQK4tSKg1YfqdEaxBi4Qo9IbNR4_140KS5dIlfsB-_JynBznQs0hyWs-_hacn3LcO4GRAeVc9whivmkP2KldhV5UA55T1p7D2wy7I51Z7DU5lMrvFVlfnBh5dnFhf6Du1MSKFeIrMydY_jniVb8mevJJGJ7DTvWa33BgErsOgniJtg/s444/Stephen-Salter.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="350" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3vmg3KT8HhAo2rkQK4tSKg1YfqdEaxBi4Qo9IbNR4_140KS5dIlfsB-_JynBznQs0hyWs-_hacn3LcO4GRAeVc9whivmkP2KldhV5UA55T1p7D2wy7I51Z7DU5lMrvFVlfnBh5dnFhf6Du1MSKFeIrMydY_jniVb8mevJJGJ7DTvWa33BgErsOgniJtg/w158-h200/Stephen-Salter.jpg" width="158" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i> Stephen Salter (2012)</i></td></tr></tbody></table> Stephen Hugh Salter, MBE, FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design at the University of Edinburgh, was born December 7, 1938, and passed away peacefully on February 23, 2024, at the age of 85.<br /><br />Stephen Salter was a giant who persisted to dedicate his life to combating climate change, and he did so in many ways until the very end. <div><br /></div><div>Stephen's work on wave energy led to Salter's Duck (1974), a device able to both generate energy and reduce wave strength. In 1977, Stephen built a multi-directional wave tank at the University of Edinburgh. <br /><br />In 2011, Stephen looked at ways to capture methane released in the Arctic, such as by covering lakes and parts of seas by sheets to collect the methane (drawing below).
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgS_inK3oZ0ypvp99Hla98d1Mjjm9r3HiQV-3FdiGYf_gLStRYdec2g4ewJkyfDRTuBKzjP82QyBu4GR4ZykKiN52NHdV_MBzRSbZeO5Ds82x3nEC3KJZ99J4N-E_00O-pcuc4gowO2Pw/s16000/2c.jpg" style="border: none; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; position: right;" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Empty and filled extruded rubber trough cases with 4 times enlarged views of end and centre</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<div>Stephen was perhaps best known for his work on marine cloud brightening, i.e. deploying vessels to spray salt particles into the air in an effort to reduce sea surface temperatures, and thus also reducing sea ice loss and reducing the strength of extreme weather events including storms and hurricanes. <br /><br />In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcWQ2vLoTI">video below</a>, Stephen discusses marine cloud brightening in a TEDx talk in 2016. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ktcWQ2vLoTI" width="560"></iframe><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i style="font-size: 14.85px;">Marine cloud brightening | Prof. Stephen Salter | TEDx Talks Published 15 Nov 2016</i></div><div><br /></div><div>The image below is from the post <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/09/hurricane-moderation.html">Hurricane Moderation</a> at <a href="https://Arctic-news.blogspot.com">Arctic-news.blogspot.com</a>. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="475" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnld1u0YDSpH-DEtekviiNG1oO8ROAtFFhQzvmB4Mhc0L5hQqiEiSukyBVU_dmJQRcxvcvjBov5RnX_FWSCa47Wqnzjfzaxraw3dmavgjoQo8AnvNx6dizRj2zZesqjao6Ut3tWXz-vUY/s1600/Vessel.jpg" style="background-color: #ffffbb; border: none; color: #992211; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; position: relative; text-align: center;" /></div>
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In the video below, by theedinburghreporter, Stephen Salter talks about marine cloud brightening.
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<div>In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGob5u7JPk">video</a> below, Stephen Salter is interviewed by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nick.breeze.520">Nick Breeze</a> (2022). </div>
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<div>Below is a screenshot from the above <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGob5u7JPk">video</a> by Nick Breeze. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsKktU2ONqhjejeLXPGBTIzNSBeSqgQkM4evoVJH_8VWscxB1qKbooWMQObUAfK9mwTN5GJ3LUEvUMow9zuQmdzdhIDBckfCV-vFPGl65peMqmEwjdo2gU1Kq_AJGWPXou2f9yRLbAnxGty9fzde4EyBtKA2uZ_u7vKktAK-OOChumPmGJStuaEtaMNy0/s642/Stephen-Salter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="642" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsKktU2ONqhjejeLXPGBTIzNSBeSqgQkM4evoVJH_8VWscxB1qKbooWMQObUAfK9mwTN5GJ3LUEvUMow9zuQmdzdhIDBckfCV-vFPGl65peMqmEwjdo2gU1Kq_AJGWPXou2f9yRLbAnxGty9fzde4EyBtKA2uZ_u7vKktAK-OOChumPmGJStuaEtaMNy0/s16000/Stephen-Salter.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 11.88px;">Stephen Salter discusses sending solar energy back out to space by means of Marine Cloud Brightening.<br />Screenshot by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Sam Carana</a> from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGob5u7JPk">video</a> by Nick Breeze.</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
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Stephen Salter (2022): <i>"A jolly small change in reflectivity of the clouds will be sending solar energy back out to space enough to balance what the excess is that's being retained here by greenhouse gases (4:26-4:41). Maybe 10 cubic meters of water a second as sub micron drops sprayed in the right place would offset all the damage we've done since pre-industrial times (5:15-5:24)." </i>
<div><br /></div>Our hearts are saddened by this huge loss, and our thoughts are with Stephen's family and his many friends. Stephen's work will not be forgotten.
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<b>Links</b>
<br /><div><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Futuristic fleet of 'cloudseeders' - by John Latham (2007)<br /><a href="https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/6354759.stm">https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/6354759.stm</a><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming - by Stephen Salter<a href="mailto:s.salter@ed.ac.uk"></a>, Graham Sortino and John Latham (2008)<br /><a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2008.0136">https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2008.0136</a><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Can we capture methane from the Arctic seabed? (2011)<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane-capture.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane-capture.html</a></div><div><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Professor Stephen Salter receives top Academy Award (2012)</div><div><a href="https://www.eng.ed.ac.uk/about/news/20120801/professor-stephen-salter-receives-top-academy-award">https://www.eng.ed.ac.uk/about/news/20120801/professor-stephen-salter-receives-top-academy-award</a></div><div><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Leading wave energy pioneer Prof Stephen Salter (2012) <div><a href="https://www.theengineer.co.uk/content/in-depth/leading-wave-energy-pioneer-prof-stephen-salter">https://www.theengineer.co.uk/content/in-depth/leading-wave-energy-pioneer-prof-stephen-salter</a><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Coded modulation of computer climate models for the prediction of precipitation and other side-effects of marine cloud brightening (2013)<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/coded-modulation-of-computer-climate-models-for-the-prediction-of-precipitation-and-other-side-effects-of-marine-cloud-brightening.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/coded-modulation-of-computer-climate-models-for-the-prediction-of-precipitation-and-other-side-effects-of-marine-cloud-brightening.html</a></div><div><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Marine cloud brightening | Prof. Stephen Salter | TEDxHeriotWattUniversity | TEDx talk (2016)<div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcWQ2vLoTI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcWQ2vLoTI</a></div><br /><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Hurricane Moderation (2018)<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/09/hurricane-moderation.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/09/hurricane-moderation.html</a><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Talking to Professor Stephen Salter - TheEdinburghReporter (May 23, 2019)</div><div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG7r9JbwUGo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG7r9JbwUGo</a></div><div><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Speaking with Professor Stephen Salter - The Edinburgh Report (June 1, 2019)<div><a href="https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/edinburgh-reporter/episodes/Speaking-with-Professor-Stephen-Salter-e44di3">https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/edinburgh-reporter/episodes/Speaking-with-Professor-Stephen-Salter-e44di3</a></div><div><br /></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Professor Stephen Salter at Holyrood speaking about project to arrest climate change</div><div><a href="https://theedinburghreporter.co.uk/2019/09/professor-stephen-salter-at-holyrood-speaking-about-project-to-arrest-climate-change">https://theedinburghreporter.co.uk/2019/09/professor-stephen-salter-at-holyrood-speaking-about-project-to-arrest-climate-change</a></div><div><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>John Latham obituary (2021)</div><div><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/30/john-latham-obituay">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/30/john-latham-obituay</a><br /><div><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">• </span>Stephen Salter - Whole interview by Nick Breeze ClimateGenn (2022)<div></div></div></div></div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGob5u7JPk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGob5u7JPk</a></div><br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="631" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168866222130161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><br /></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-25132827877757421042024-02-21T00:58:00.000-08:002024-03-18T00:42:00.204-07:00Tragedy set to unfold in tropicsThe temperature is rising rapidly in the tropics. The image below shows the situation in the tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) through February 14, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.3°C, i.e. 1.3°C above 1979-2000.<div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUbapunn4jND5ohyphenhyphenGNwW7-MPgc-KM0LFfumeHqRb5QJO76Tzyh3zbkL8O3RJpoAKrhjQnG5vnT1woftxRkprPdTpUAboqb5u1qcKK3VL3f_rYzh2rbPRHNrPd7MiBEuEpkLzaLao7e1o5OL3TFl-5LpBZnK28580BEC8RHgbgbb-jTn3NvpmhzuCP3rwM/s1100/Feb-14-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="735" data-original-width="1100" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUbapunn4jND5ohyphenhyphenGNwW7-MPgc-KM0LFfumeHqRb5QJO76Tzyh3zbkL8O3RJpoAKrhjQnG5vnT1woftxRkprPdTpUAboqb5u1qcKK3VL3f_rYzh2rbPRHNrPd7MiBEuEpkLzaLao7e1o5OL3TFl-5LpBZnK28580BEC8RHgbgbb-jTn3NvpmhzuCP3rwM/w640-h428/Feb-14-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />On April 24, 2016, it was 26.8°C, the highest temperature on record in the tropics, 1°C above 1979-2000, as the above image also shows. The image below shows temperature anomalies over the years. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLE6cRjUOJ5weQc_nMPlhrLlVW_gCnpzKE1rSux0ZoIOPvD6bRWSvnKTjbHWOfH8IfZLZa5n-9EX3yqFYxbvmktyJKvKM2i_fiwXXBdnWjMcV3wl-OTEev892SWMXoSPIz8xrix9mJ1hCTLOMc0aBehI4Xzu5sS2q3dxWO0ZOm94SFAppTA3lCbdVU6-M/s1200/Tropics-anomaly.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLE6cRjUOJ5weQc_nMPlhrLlVW_gCnpzKE1rSux0ZoIOPvD6bRWSvnKTjbHWOfH8IfZLZa5n-9EX3yqFYxbvmktyJKvKM2i_fiwXXBdnWjMcV3wl-OTEev892SWMXoSPIz8xrix9mJ1hCTLOMc0aBehI4Xzu5sS2q3dxWO0ZOm94SFAppTA3lCbdVU6-M/w640-h336/Tropics-anomaly.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Note that the above anomalies are calculated from 1979-2000, which isn't pre-industrial. When calculated from a genuinely <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a> base, anomalies will be higher. Also have a look at the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7">recent analysis of sponges</a> collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGfsFdYfxqkKtbxr7rEMK9WIgtuBuK1rbLlPn-UPrPs1v0_FkAZ3kzQ-Y6YivYOCk7MUWzunbHT1M5ziThDaHbjgtiRGwJPeX8ufDEQZLxgs93YJdouyEK9XnR0CGA6-6wE0YdkDuZ46XG5QIzfkrJmCAZk25G-kwLlkzduOljSmbjnsndtUYfT48hZjM/s626/sponges-from-1700.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="626" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGfsFdYfxqkKtbxr7rEMK9WIgtuBuK1rbLlPn-UPrPs1v0_FkAZ3kzQ-Y6YivYOCk7MUWzunbHT1M5ziThDaHbjgtiRGwJPeX8ufDEQZLxgs93YJdouyEK9XnR0CGA6-6wE0YdkDuZ46XG5QIzfkrJmCAZk25G-kwLlkzduOljSmbjnsndtUYfT48hZjM/w640-h492/sponges-from-1700.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>According to <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">NOAA</a>, there is a 100% chance that the current El Niño will persist through February-March-April 2024, as illustrated by the image below. </div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpXBtmI0AGl6Ugj5x1INShSlHEWJ6_Ot3WkU1kuY-ZqzV2IIiXnMZ3hT5wrL8SB3qem8oBKiZRFVyovV-b9aD36A-PMRazA1LU71p385M8cO1oxMEjiiLOOs-s9gt8PyTlrM-a2Zh2zyml70aktnyHZmO4nZtJ3KDlmuwvj2PjcY1r2X9xQJ8NDhD9LrE/s506/NOAA-ENSO.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpXBtmI0AGl6Ugj5x1INShSlHEWJ6_Ot3WkU1kuY-ZqzV2IIiXnMZ3hT5wrL8SB3qem8oBKiZRFVyovV-b9aD36A-PMRazA1LU71p385M8cO1oxMEjiiLOOs-s9gt8PyTlrM-a2Zh2zyml70aktnyHZmO4nZtJ3KDlmuwvj2PjcY1r2X9xQJ8NDhD9LrE/s16000/NOAA-ENSO.png" /></a></div><div><br /><div><div>The danger is that a tragedy will unfold over the next few months as temperatures look set to exceed the 2016 peak in the tropics and cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.
<div><br /></div>
<div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b></div>
<br />
<div>The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><div><b><br /></b></div><br />Links</b>
<br /><br />
• Climate Reanalyzer <br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org">https://climatereanalyzer.org</a>
<br /><br />
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions<br /><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a> <br /><br />• Pre-industrial
<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024) </div><div><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7</a></div><br />• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><br /><br />Discussed at facebook:</div><div>Feb 22, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161</a></div><div>Feb 21, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161</a><br /></div><div>Jan 28, 2024 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="793" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168858418170161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-77999689551187935092024-02-05T23:58:00.000-08:002024-02-08T16:48:42.757-08:00Too late?<p style="text-align: center;"><i>Climate change denial and the rise of fascism</i></p>
<div style="text-align: center;"><b>by Andrew Glikson</b></div>
<div><p align="center"><i>but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because <br />there </i><i style="text-align: left;">won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023, in a letter to the author)</i></p><br />
Extreme planetary heating, the failure of effective mitigation and the rise of denial around the world combine to lead to a seventh <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.earth.com/news/earth-may-be-enduring-its-seventh-mass-extinction-not-sixth/&source=gmail&ust=1707189745100000&usg=AOvVaw1KuEUaQVKBjwTf1CEzXV4e" href="https://www.earth.com/news/earth-may-be-enduring-its-seventh-mass-extinction-not-sixth/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">mass extinction of species</a>. While originally Global warming constituted an unintended consequence of the 18-20ᵗʰ centuries industrial revolution, the collapse of attempts to arrest it in the 20-21st centuries is already leading toward a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event" target="_blank"> mass extinction</a>, but the rise of fascist movements and their neoconservative kins is jeopardizing a unified global approach to the climate crisis. Inherently however racist ideology, worship of power, glorification of war, the pride of killing and “honourable” death is not concerned with the fatal consequences of climate change.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYD7WIHmbuCpbClciA5r4JBXnduKA13sjtPAYDFGxWJCCBqNFFyS5Fzba4UPzNxpSl5qecdQrSbvSO0ezS2_I1Pw5jLbX95fosYQSpoxPGAwEQNQDFZ64WHst8TqaJ0KSF-HPAlsK1eKLO8Bt3PncKU1QoKpmrKiclIUCAIIpxfCCjDum9WlD3G5jI3rU/s1280/TEMPERATURE%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYD7WIHmbuCpbClciA5r4JBXnduKA13sjtPAYDFGxWJCCBqNFFyS5Fzba4UPzNxpSl5qecdQrSbvSO0ezS2_I1Pw5jLbX95fosYQSpoxPGAwEQNQDFZ64WHst8TqaJ0KSF-HPAlsK1eKLO8Bt3PncKU1QoKpmrKiclIUCAIIpxfCCjDum9WlD3G5jI3rU/w640-h360/TEMPERATURE%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Figure 1.</b> 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin. It was 1.18°C<br />above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C. It was 1.35°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).<br /><br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table>While the authorities (so-called) claim they are trying to <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=While+the+%E2%80%9Cauthorities%E2%80%9D+claim+they+are+trying+to+limit+global+warming&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=While+the+%E2%80%9Cauthorities%E2%80%9D+claim+they+are+trying+to+limit+global+warming&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTk0ODJqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">arrest global warming</a>, temperatures continue to rise to fatal levels (Figure 1). Ignoring climate science, dismissing climate scientists and confecting lies while global <a href="https://www.democraticunderground.com/1127171314">heating accelerates with deleterious consequences</a>, the species sapiens is finding itself on track to carbon saturation to Miocene levels (420< ppm) of its atmosphere ─ the lungs of the Earth ─ at a <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/andrew-glikson-a-world-on-borrowed-time/">geologically unprecedented rate</a>. The extreme rise in the chemistry of the atmosphere, the acidification of the oceans and the coating of the land with carbon residues and plastics are leading toward an <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=the+uninhabitable+earth&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=the+uninhabitable+earth&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyBwgBEC4YgAQyBggCEEUYQDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABNIBCTg1ODlqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">uninhabitable Earth</a>.<br /><br />With exceptions governments pretend the introduction of alternative energy ─ solar, wind, hydrothermal, hydro and tide ─ is likely to reduce the mining of and emission from fossil fuels, but this has <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now">hardly occurred since 2022</a>. Oblivious to the implications of climate science, the concerns of the powers that be hinge on the bottom line, an attitude <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/not-listening-to-scientists-most-australians-dont-think-climate-change-is-a-serious-problem/">echoed by much in the population</a>. False claims abound in high places, as exemplified by the chair of COP-28 conference claiming: “there is ‘<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels</a>”.<br /><br />Everywhere, including Australia, carbon counting hinges on domestic mining and emissions to the exclusion of carbon exports. Thus “<a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/fossil-fuel-export-emissions-climate-change#:~:text=Oil%2C%20gas%2C%20and%20coal%20exports,the%20pollution%20they%20produce%20%E2%80%94%20overseas.">Oil, gas, and coal exports are not counted when countries tally their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement</a>.”<br /><br />Hopeful popular belief abound, as if new science-based discoveries could resolve climate change, as by the optimistic projection by <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming">NASA</a>: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot. <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad">Such suggestions overlook the amplifying feedback</a> from warming oceans, melting ice sheets. disintegrating permafrost, release of methane from the oceans, and migrating climate zones. Scientists are caught between a need to promote mitigation and adaptation on the one hand and a reluctance to communicate the impending calamity.<br /><br />Australia’s enshrined emissions cut target of 43% by 2030, up from 26-28%, has limited consequences since it has become the fifth largest miner and the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s third biggest exporter</a> of fossil fuels, exporting only behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, more than Iraq, Venezuela and any country in the EU.<br /><br />The blood-stained history of Homo sapiens since the mastery of fire (Figure 2), all the way to the <a href="https://monthlyreview.org/2016/09/01/the-anthropocene-crisis/">Anthropocene crisis</a>, combined with the proliferation of doomsday weapons, do not bode well for the future of terrestrial species.<br /><br />Global empires east and west have become increasingly brutal. Fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ and its neo-conservative (so-called) followers are not concerned with global warming and its consequences, except where it hurts the profit motive. References to “climate change” by politicians constitute hollow words they hardly mean. There are not too many angels left except where the young like <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Greta+Thunberg&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=Greta+Thunberg+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhAMgcIAhAAGIAEMg0IAxAAGIMBGLEDGIAEMgcIBBAAGIAEMgcIBRAAGIAEMg0IBhAuGIMBGLEDGIAEMgcIBxAAGIAE0gEJNTY0MGowajE1qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">Greta Thunberg</a> rebel.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycK9enlyJn2T0vtDLnfljCEylNp2p9YYDesZHPv92L7gx1aky89rueiAfWNtnW0C_Ad363BrE3MfMXcqKaCAzpIgvSujXbtI5u7E-0zkKk1WVZqb6M2viPXu0i3Qod75SOpSd57odugIgHtsIlKtpaZ-WJR40XnRS4nvAiQjjQTLENx4-VoHM032tgmA/s671/fire.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="659" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycK9enlyJn2T0vtDLnfljCEylNp2p9YYDesZHPv92L7gx1aky89rueiAfWNtnW0C_Ad363BrE3MfMXcqKaCAzpIgvSujXbtI5u7E-0zkKk1WVZqb6M2viPXu0i3Qod75SOpSd57odugIgHtsIlKtpaZ-WJR40XnRS4nvAiQjjQTLENx4-VoHM032tgmA/s16000/fire.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Figure 2.</b> The deep time origin of the Anthropocene.</i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br />
<p style="text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="520" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168817419970161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></p>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-77916842185994911612024-02-02T20:40:00.000-08:002024-02-28T19:31:03.766-08:00Blue Ocean Event 2024? <p>How likely is an Arctic <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html">Blue Ocean Event</a> (BOE) to occur in 2024 or even a Double BOE? The image below is alarming. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtHFhAwaCYkBCIRQccJlppk-IKQVJGm_GBnMPnHO19RGJN0RfuLTzuQr2jaUWHkR1i2e3HF8CDSSefXpLJTFjTRal0EXkQeDm1uVKF_VujTuh3FFS6mpC2cII3vGWexjAComZhUWchZE2ucIm9VWcc8KhmgP9S6fq2LV4JhGvCsH__Cb-rR6nLDufa57M/s1091/Feb-27-2024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="707" data-original-width="1091" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtHFhAwaCYkBCIRQccJlppk-IKQVJGm_GBnMPnHO19RGJN0RfuLTzuQr2jaUWHkR1i2e3HF8CDSSefXpLJTFjTRal0EXkQeDm1uVKF_VujTuh3FFS6mpC2cII3vGWexjAComZhUWchZE2ucIm9VWcc8KhmgP9S6fq2LV4JhGvCsH__Cb-rR6nLDufa57M/w640-h414/Feb-27-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><div>The highest daily sea surface temperatures on record (going back to 1981) were reached in February 2024, even higher than the peaks in 2023. Even higher temperatures may be reached over soon, in March 2024 and April 2024.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>As the above image shows, the highest temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. This was the case for the previous years on record, except for 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge and when the highest peak for the year occurred in August. According to <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">NOAA</a>, the majority of models indicate that this El Niño will persist through March-May 2024. </div>
<div><br />Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February, while Arctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum in September, after a steep decline resulting from more sunlight reaching higher latitudes North and ocean heat reaching a second peak in August. <br /><br />Ominously, daily surface air temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere exceeded 17°C recently, something that never happened before in the record going back to 1981. Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February. Loss of sea ice acts as a self-reinforcing feedback loop, accelerating the temperature rise. The daily surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was 17.005°C on Feb 1, 2024, following a peak of 17.01°C on Jan 31, 2024.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSI4soMhyphenhyphenmzPbkHiHYQ72ogrUGCZ8s-y9xwZWR4QaTsfHtfzmTFUVPylf3kgO6gnSS6Zx2KLn_YntOA89bxIEv2xrKWvqbBv31VpJfR2yUgp1s5i0SyC8jnRykJOagBivDes7l6puMKRilgn-L0STNq5ZKlKi152Ke0FqzOBD_4NE10N12CwwD8R9uzfs/s1106/Feb-1-2024-SH.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="740" data-original-width="1106" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSI4soMhyphenhyphenmzPbkHiHYQ72ogrUGCZ8s-y9xwZWR4QaTsfHtfzmTFUVPylf3kgO6gnSS6Zx2KLn_YntOA89bxIEv2xrKWvqbBv31VpJfR2yUgp1s5i0SyC8jnRykJOagBivDes7l6puMKRilgn-L0STNq5ZKlKi152Ke0FqzOBD_4NE10N12CwwD8R9uzfs/w640-h428/Feb-1-2024-SH.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
<div><b>Higher temperatures can cause sea ice to melt, even out of season</b></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>As illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6i.html">Pidwirny</a>, sunlight does not reach the North Pole until the March Equinox. From that time on, insolation rises steeply. Around the June Solstice, more sunlight reaches the North Pole than anywhere else on Earth. In the image below, insolation is calculated taking into account the combined effects of angle of incidence and day length duration. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG4yUkiIVZfnpZRKy70-NjS11FHkWIu7uj_c3H17ARLA7mSgFzAf7AEkXs3PfX93Q2UrCSK4N2_TcZV8_D7QmFcZNkd9s6JElPXp0CEzvojoQBaORvLMnL2ZaWKuQc_ADNi9b1rJJDwVQuw8u6wYfyHQ4RhBB88eVcn6KYks4JodffmgLygkLWDZne2L4/s660/insolation-at-selected-latitudes.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="660" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG4yUkiIVZfnpZRKy70-NjS11FHkWIu7uj_c3H17ARLA7mSgFzAf7AEkXs3PfX93Q2UrCSK4N2_TcZV8_D7QmFcZNkd9s6JElPXp0CEzvojoQBaORvLMnL2ZaWKuQc_ADNi9b1rJJDwVQuw8u6wYfyHQ4RhBB88eVcn6KYks4JodffmgLygkLWDZne2L4/s16000/insolation-at-selected-latitudes.png" /></a></div>
<p>The conclusion is that ocean heat is the main reason why melting of Arctic sea ice can occur early in the year. More specifically, the narrowing of the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics can at times cause strong wind to be present along the path of the Gulf Stream. Rising ocean heat combined with strong wind can cause heat to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, causing sea ice to fall in extent. <br /><br />Such an event is illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">NSIDC</a>. The image shows a drop in sea ice extent at the end of January 2024 (blue), a time of year when Arctic sea ice is still expected to increase in extent and to keep increasing in extent for some time to come (grey). In this case, strong wind may have caused a huge amount of ocean heat that is present in the North Atlantic to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html">earlier post</a>. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9z4Na3jh4kS-CU01iNSSjXHIbr6IQNC2grzWx-J47y-BwiQ3sA6ocaO1M1Q5Ea1UY7XJILINmNhTNF2gEhQTljyRkko5XyJ52S9jfur1MGV9tJ9n98newUqcu0z7xeTsVgV3_TlrxiYjCHeEnesgJWmz1YsrMtGh22f6saL__SC7GG4hPHst2tPv6wlA/s954/adapted-from-NSIDC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="954" height="590" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9z4Na3jh4kS-CU01iNSSjXHIbr6IQNC2grzWx-J47y-BwiQ3sA6ocaO1M1Q5Ea1UY7XJILINmNhTNF2gEhQTljyRkko5XyJ52S9jfur1MGV9tJ9n98newUqcu0z7xeTsVgV3_TlrxiYjCHeEnesgJWmz1YsrMtGh22f6saL__SC7GG4hPHst2tPv6wlA/w640-h590/adapted-from-NSIDC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p></p>
For the time of year, Arctic sea ice extent is currently still extensive, compared to earlier years, which is a reflection of more water vapor in the atmosphere and more precipitation. While sea ice extent is relatively large, sea ice volume is among the lowest of all years on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8cTeo4plkyUcyLHCG9FkoqIlCQ8gkExX0q-zKzUNcjRw4Qfv3tggFKvAKiPQD1kkPvoZhQ4mE1h5vU7APjvaNbL73RMEAreyfcdiTseYelXIijWSh5q_D1W1sKBpVkQMNudhucZ2bc6xAwQrNTnQBkh9BSCCctJtH38n6J7U4NO1lDPVmkEU2fRT5KA/s1093/Feb-28-2024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="1093" height="530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8cTeo4plkyUcyLHCG9FkoqIlCQ8gkExX0q-zKzUNcjRw4Qfv3tggFKvAKiPQD1kkPvoZhQ4mE1h5vU7APjvaNbL73RMEAreyfcdiTseYelXIijWSh5q_D1W1sKBpVkQMNudhucZ2bc6xAwQrNTnQBkh9BSCCctJtH38n6J7U4NO1lDPVmkEU2fRT5KA/w640-h530/Feb-28-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><div><div><br /></div><div>This indicates that Arctic sea ice is very thin. Ominously, the image below indicates that there is a huge area near the North Pole with very thin sea ice. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8VESQwW2VbVIhGt9BxZjc6Akyg-1LT_odxiTkuXLb1rwFz8cpQ9RDjlImO_e2wUNnTT2be2wvjTta6Eji7EzyPOo2Ig3L215jKlg55_VNgLIfeOE10P3FXf9Y_viy3NhBQRyIiIXdQbVCeEnRXSvBKUKwo48E3UnJg0uBHKTvcY3Gi2jZzvxiXG6QMfw/s757/Feb-19-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="624" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8VESQwW2VbVIhGt9BxZjc6Akyg-1LT_odxiTkuXLb1rwFz8cpQ9RDjlImO_e2wUNnTT2be2wvjTta6Eji7EzyPOo2Ig3L215jKlg55_VNgLIfeOE10P3FXf9Y_viy3NhBQRyIiIXdQbVCeEnRXSvBKUKwo48E3UnJg0uBHKTvcY3Gi2jZzvxiXG6QMfw/w528-h640/Feb-19-2024.png" width="528" /></a></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Furthermore, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland, which means that this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes (see the insolation image further above).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcjNR9Qwg3swOagO_y5T61Me0WIUBJb1jKJBmUURFvdWDCQ1cjAGJv5L9-Pd2Te-emcvnHdFaPLOqWdymFGC_E2JdjbJnjgRRMUdbxetotMn7EtA0zpMSXnIDBhfGuA0zXHy5Jjm8Na7IcbnvXF0D8YvTdlxqO1GsqvTe-L_abpzxmsjJHUMNCeJz88Ds/s1102/SST-Feb-15-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1102" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcjNR9Qwg3swOagO_y5T61Me0WIUBJb1jKJBmUURFvdWDCQ1cjAGJv5L9-Pd2Te-emcvnHdFaPLOqWdymFGC_E2JdjbJnjgRRMUdbxetotMn7EtA0zpMSXnIDBhfGuA0zXHy5Jjm8Na7IcbnvXF0D8YvTdlxqO1GsqvTe-L_abpzxmsjJHUMNCeJz88Ds/w640-h418/SST-Feb-15-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><p></p><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkKDwWYwbwNZeysPR_ZYY0AVK_H2fVB5ptrqoKz546ZSr5As2nTDfUBF07LTob1p1MYRf8yGKktW6S_jsVTNBTnzLN1Vjtnrb3SGD6M4yzrJhVOfyozGT7uerokvpmF_JCbnuz9_G4SwrfudY-rYwpF8ATayFZ_wsS3iGmBc251WpQnfOqIj5QDi-FWzU/s1025/December-2023.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="1025" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkKDwWYwbwNZeysPR_ZYY0AVK_H2fVB5ptrqoKz546ZSr5As2nTDfUBF07LTob1p1MYRf8yGKktW6S_jsVTNBTnzLN1Vjtnrb3SGD6M4yzrJhVOfyozGT7uerokvpmF_JCbnuz9_G4SwrfudY-rYwpF8ATayFZ_wsS3iGmBc251WpQnfOqIj5QDi-FWzU/s320/December-2023.png" width="320" /></a></div>The North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 20.4°C on February 15, 2024, i.e. 0.6°C higher than on February 15, 2023. <br /><br />High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic. </div><div><br /></div><div>North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are just starting to heat up from their annual minimum and can be expected to rise strongly, in line with seasonal changes. <br /><div><br /></div></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivK-dF6aDAeEeg3dMCDNLRPgcLiBv1Nx_be4z04rGR1TbO9hquXVI0Rtw5hQXXwnzxl414CjxirZA0CEBBwkF7mzMk_er0aPkQH6cuSPHwphyoQMtiXZqjbpoEs2PXOKj_8KENCXSMbcnyop-Dz89r2e3d6nFzm1npPdRVQCimv79zQ8iv4UKbJq5tr2k/s1027/January-2024.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="1027" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivK-dF6aDAeEeg3dMCDNLRPgcLiBv1Nx_be4z04rGR1TbO9hquXVI0Rtw5hQXXwnzxl414CjxirZA0CEBBwkF7mzMk_er0aPkQH6cuSPHwphyoQMtiXZqjbpoEs2PXOKj_8KENCXSMbcnyop-Dz89r2e3d6nFzm1npPdRVQCimv79zQ8iv4UKbJq5tr2k/s320/January-2024.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div>Ominously, a peak temperature of 25.4°C was reached on Aug.31, 2023, much higher than the peak in any of the preceding years dating back to 1981.<br /><br />During the six months between the September Equinox and the March Equinox (see image further above), no sunlight is reaching the North Pole. <br /><br />Nonetheless, temperature anomalies in the Arctic are already extremely high, due to ocean heat that has entered the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the two maps on the right and the two maps on the right further below.<br /><br />Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies were as much as 12.6°C or 22.7°F higher than 1981-2011 on February 15, 2024, locarion marked by the green circle on the image below.<br /><b><br /></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3deimR-ueqCNStn_P61SHXprciJQRktYnIyY13_at3Uw28CKhnKkgUBCQj2G7ZwwxMfi-i03pTdBQZVTgPSEDbnzMzsZ3FPkkyAlRGSboHGEP0awR1EkOCIHfM-UctRIwFn3wLTiclOizreakH-HL0FOqleCeeZxhqH06iNjUA78-bOAH3nie6M2_DqU/s1200/Feb-15-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="925" data-original-width="1200" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3deimR-ueqCNStn_P61SHXprciJQRktYnIyY13_at3Uw28CKhnKkgUBCQj2G7ZwwxMfi-i03pTdBQZVTgPSEDbnzMzsZ3FPkkyAlRGSboHGEP0awR1EkOCIHfM-UctRIwFn3wLTiclOizreakH-HL0FOqleCeeZxhqH06iNjUA78-bOAH3nie6M2_DqU/w640-h494/Feb-15-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Feedbacks</b> </div><div><br /></div><div>Slowing down of AMOC and cooling due to heavier melting of Greenland's ice is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean, while a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic, as it did in 2023. A large part of this heat in the North Atlantic can also be present underneath the sea surface.<br /><br />These developments occur at the same time as ocean stratification increases (as temperatures rise, see above images), as more freshwater enters the ocean (as a result of more meltwater and of runoff from land and from rivers), and as more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, all of which can contribute to formation and growth of a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">cold, freshwater lid</a> at the surface of the North Atlantic.<div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcx_iX9lWiZFciibTpJWr4r6gLYJRP4pxDJpdcwxTPmlkMnRzq6W0UQZBptBx70RhyphenhyphenmeTn-zjcKQSyFaXiwDCv_j5mRdOg9CBlaKD5aj2f68KHIBZzTEMG_qgpmVpjcb2AIVXOJLNDe7U/s748/Ocean-Heat-8.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="178" data-original-width="748" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcx_iX9lWiZFciibTpJWr4r6gLYJRP4pxDJpdcwxTPmlkMnRzq6W0UQZBptBx70RhyphenhyphenmeTn-zjcKQSyFaXiwDCv_j5mRdOg9CBlaKD5aj2f68KHIBZzTEMG_qgpmVpjcb2AIVXOJLNDe7U/s1600/Ocean-Heat-8.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div>Furthermore, storms can get stronger as temperatures rise and as changes take place to the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">Jet Stream</a>. Strong wind can temporarily speed up currents that carry huge amounts of ocean heat with them toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html">this one</a>. Much of the ocean heat in the North Atlantic can therefore be pushed abruptly underneath this freshwater lid and flow into the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpHvwRvAZEtcN3aV7dQ3bgmFoj4sXBTa-C3ITM5Nqd772GQQB3-rfNsw9EcsFM8KEd1ncLbvCHHFuN51NihQXLSBqqZS4RRzGZZ0_QnhbPHRpv1vpm-GjAqzJbje_WHfYKPTGEZOmqPCr_rBK1Uec434VI_oXpKf9bOvQtqeoMDnDvu8vidYbNrckbvoM/s1000/Feb-18-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1000" height="562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpHvwRvAZEtcN3aV7dQ3bgmFoj4sXBTa-C3ITM5Nqd772GQQB3-rfNsw9EcsFM8KEd1ncLbvCHHFuN51NihQXLSBqqZS4RRzGZZ0_QnhbPHRpv1vpm-GjAqzJbje_WHfYKPTGEZOmqPCr_rBK1Uec434VI_oXpKf9bOvQtqeoMDnDvu8vidYbNrckbvoM/w640-h562/Feb-18-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />The image below shows wind speed at 250 hPa on a background of sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2011. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKul0MYgHWGZdE-3W8NJRkOrNeQDlXN7PYXgQfM8tjd5vfpC2hXzedLpojZb47vQS58JGWhB7lYAvuGIR21VRdESSFh_5omcAeKxmxk8rnS9fsAshKmgi49ZbgdrzRHDd1P_lS_JktD0JNDLGEn_PSzSnWAq5clfGS2yYjlfTtRkR5YIhP08WEBV8bfo/s1000/Feb-18-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1000" height="562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKul0MYgHWGZdE-3W8NJRkOrNeQDlXN7PYXgQfM8tjd5vfpC2hXzedLpojZb47vQS58JGWhB7lYAvuGIR21VRdESSFh_5omcAeKxmxk8rnS9fsAshKmgi49ZbgdrzRHDd1P_lS_JktD0JNDLGEn_PSzSnWAq5clfGS2yYjlfTtRkR5YIhP08WEBV8bfo/w640-h562/Feb-18-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.<br /><br /></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPeUBykCW-NffW6YFcwm2MJ8cTbpJaTbdbG6tpNPGI_eSSPp7Xx2aKp7S79-Fb3TH9Q6idNs8L4jtlzgztB3so_Aevi2LeHuQVNhHUQOl_b9kbbAzFkiImottUdebp_yOawDp1cAEbALelMAiBqimo0hAEwYCs5bB1ca_qvrPyDUKg0gMDMmgNp5dwnvM/s754/NASA-January-2024.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="754" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPeUBykCW-NffW6YFcwm2MJ8cTbpJaTbdbG6tpNPGI_eSSPp7Xx2aKp7S79-Fb3TH9Q6idNs8L4jtlzgztB3so_Aevi2LeHuQVNhHUQOl_b9kbbAzFkiImottUdebp_yOawDp1cAEbALelMAiBqimo0hAEwYCs5bB1ca_qvrPyDUKg0gMDMmgNp5dwnvM/s320/NASA-January-2024.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Changes to the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">Jet Stream</a> and ocean heat accumulating in the North Atlantic Ocean are both consequences of the overall temperature rise. A distorted Jet Stream can cause an abrupt influx of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.<br /><br />
Such additional ocean heat, combined with a steep rise in insolation hitting the Arctic in April and May, may suffice to cause a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024. <br /><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiir8w0vDL8A7EePfEGD3P3PdKBC1yawGBs4cCDGWe2XXHhBaqonvcTthD2JawXz2Fx8-IKDeoXJtScKkNHmGL_yQvdhPTzyZrMRigoGJyV7hNzkIYSTJxv_EcpA25TEZSB72Mj_cBloM3CJpFHncpV0i5yItOIJGcdnHy_5-Hq1DsTdrJbIeWIryyNuaE/s850/February-13-2024.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="850" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiir8w0vDL8A7EePfEGD3P3PdKBC1yawGBs4cCDGWe2XXHhBaqonvcTthD2JawXz2Fx8-IKDeoXJtScKkNHmGL_yQvdhPTzyZrMRigoGJyV7hNzkIYSTJxv_EcpA25TEZSB72Mj_cBloM3CJpFHncpV0i5yItOIJGcdnHy_5-Hq1DsTdrJbIeWIryyNuaE/s320/February-13-2024.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The far North has the highest temperature anomalies, they can as high as 7.04°C, as the image on the right shows.<br /><br />A BOE occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and less than 1 million km² of sea ice remains. As the sea ice disappears, the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean) resulting in far more sunlight getting absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case.<p>Albedo change constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting. </p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsrlyAGcRnUgXz7VIOwWdYiNVHoPRGXOH6fGqGrheIKKBfBxoTbkZLTREFQK2Bp8skK5ChGqhzDON1xB9EnDiiNPIJVDZ0AlgivaYQR3z64a74BnhJLesIWSxpIsAx0yg7natlEku6Tns/s1600/Albedo.png" style="color: #8282d5; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsrlyAGcRnUgXz7VIOwWdYiNVHoPRGXOH6fGqGrheIKKBfBxoTbkZLTREFQK2Bp8skK5ChGqhzDON1xB9EnDiiNPIJVDZ0AlgivaYQR3z64a74BnhJLesIWSxpIsAx0yg7natlEku6Tns/s1600/Albedo.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Albedo change, from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html">Albedo</a> page ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br />Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.
<br /><br />The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. </div><div><br /></div><div>Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. <div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3v-49HeJcV0IraLM1bwXxXonr6nYy7G4ZqlyDHrW84ZL3JjWsSl2_KgapURkty0F80YIxvMsrS4qlLT3ckjcD9Qmiwtr7j4NGr5sp38VlORwA82hEyli2PUtez92fcVbGXSHrbxFe2te915Jzwg_8nQPVhtJnnvswuR3j1riUbd2DoWmHhbluXG2AVXs/s1200/Latent-heat-and-seafloor-methane-tipping-points.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3v-49HeJcV0IraLM1bwXxXonr6nYy7G4ZqlyDHrW84ZL3JjWsSl2_KgapURkty0F80YIxvMsrS4qlLT3ckjcD9Qmiwtr7j4NGr5sp38VlORwA82hEyli2PUtez92fcVbGXSHrbxFe2te915Jzwg_8nQPVhtJnnvswuR3j1riUbd2DoWmHhbluXG2AVXs/w640-h336/Latent-heat-and-seafloor-methane-tipping-points.png" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The above image illustrates these tipping points and Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Trends and tipping point estimates are added. The magenta trend is based on Jan.1880-Jan.2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend is based on Jan.2010-Jan.2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, and it warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024. <br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeOd9l6UPe1__V7AiYhbL4dfh-fJjgUDuMYq8Vk5myr0A0DoKrMmAeflFNIpgoOSKpKXM8CG8hg0joZlvi5Ut3kix-Qulg8nXxK-krvWzGQXO3JVe3cDKr68OxWPxdeB_OvSG8zX4bGhpaKWytZOyuuExiLPCxTcyTGSTuP2_M9ss2WT7Ha_qX5x2ckjc/s1024/forecast-Nov-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeOd9l6UPe1__V7AiYhbL4dfh-fJjgUDuMYq8Vk5myr0A0DoKrMmAeflFNIpgoOSKpKXM8CG8hg0joZlvi5Ut3kix-Qulg8nXxK-krvWzGQXO3JVe3cDKr68OxWPxdeB_OvSG8zX4bGhpaKWytZOyuuExiLPCxTcyTGSTuP2_M9ss2WT7Ha_qX5x2ckjc/w640-h320/forecast-Nov-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The above image, adapted from <a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/">tropicaltidbits.com</a>, shows a forecast for November 2024 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean.<br /><div><br /></div>
<div>Many additional feedbacks are active, such as changes to the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">Jet Stream</a> and slowing down of AMOC, and they could speed up the crossing of such tipping points, as also discussed at the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">feedbacks page</a>. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns. </div>
</div>
<div><br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXT5_DDAhKBaqr6n7_4VWm2hBgG2FoBuACuStNJTQa5wZyFxilv4pFp2KyicdztECqRibzRBNMWSuuS-LJuKUPGlfGsKDAsuK4YEqeKcR5W835WEIaWMETCOEMHCvEKjdp-2Q0QXqN-5iU_2dyq0r3c05QiWuCeUhM9oqD_p7WZR72icxVyNFBn3b9/s910/events.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="910" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXT5_DDAhKBaqr6n7_4VWm2hBgG2FoBuACuStNJTQa5wZyFxilv4pFp2KyicdztECqRibzRBNMWSuuS-LJuKUPGlfGsKDAsuK4YEqeKcR5W835WEIaWMETCOEMHCvEKjdp-2Q0QXqN-5iU_2dyq0r3c05QiWuCeUhM9oqD_p7WZR72icxVyNFBn3b9/w640-h478/events.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/09/blue-ocean-event-2022.html">earlier post</a> - click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div>
<div><b>Greenhouse gases rising</b></div>
<p>Meanwhile, concentrations of greenhouse gases keeps rising, as illustrated by the image below. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnA45uJiPY8zDbz8s5bBfYTWtGOgJDg5aYDmvOXkTyLBuwzuFEy4tYMnUOi_ZViWWcbWOyUMebsmzcI_0YGVnxuwakHv7aDqOMipenofyty8BkXZq_Vg2sWEmDw_tFI9xE4SmP-WUmwU17bPhgJEsgtIOtRFoVG9-x73IVGE7YYZnz9PjD69cHJionu6I/s1030/CO2-early-Feb-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1030" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnA45uJiPY8zDbz8s5bBfYTWtGOgJDg5aYDmvOXkTyLBuwzuFEy4tYMnUOi_ZViWWcbWOyUMebsmzcI_0YGVnxuwakHv7aDqOMipenofyty8BkXZq_Vg2sWEmDw_tFI9xE4SmP-WUmwU17bPhgJEsgtIOtRFoVG9-x73IVGE7YYZnz9PjD69cHJionu6I/w640-h372/CO2-early-Feb-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>The average daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 426.21 ppm (parts per million) on February 4, 2024. The weekly average was 425.83 ppm. </div><div><br /></div><div>Critical is the rate of change, in particular the rapid rise in temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations. To find higher CO₂ concentrations, one has to go back millions of years. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIRrK1F8xbEhyphenhyphenXfigDh2hUnT3_tNN1wWOfG8a3534KcNDjUoG7c86HNpT39VEtICdB1mMEqJKElfz5xbOoq2ww7-OrKwpFnEjoE_iW50s7S0mSJHDykdMIKYE3fpeY9Gl4P-gSJ3Wmj2PABBCjb6SQb2nP0I60nLI8YIP7dLlIxQA9LI1UCTDN0srjDXo/s609/millions-of-years-CO2-early-Feb-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="609" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIRrK1F8xbEhyphenhyphenXfigDh2hUnT3_tNN1wWOfG8a3534KcNDjUoG7c86HNpT39VEtICdB1mMEqJKElfz5xbOoq2ww7-OrKwpFnEjoE_iW50s7S0mSJHDykdMIKYE3fpeY9Gl4P-gSJ3Wmj2PABBCjb6SQb2nP0I60nLI8YIP7dLlIxQA9LI1UCTDN0srjDXo/w640-h394/millions-of-years-CO2-early-Feb-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />A <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161165563844679">recent study</a> concludes that: <br />- A doubling of CO₂ is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5°C to 8°C.</div>- The last time atmospheric CO₂ consistently reached today’s human-driven levels of 420 ppm was 14 million years ago.</div><div>- The hottest period was about 50 million years ago, when temperatures were as much as 12°C higher than today.</div><div><p><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b><br /></p>The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /><br /><b>Links</b><br /><br />• Blue Ocean Event<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily Sea Surface Temperature, World (60°S-60°N)<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a></p><p>• Pidwirny, M. "Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition (2006) <br /><a href="http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6i.html">http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6i.html</a><br /><br />• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions<br /><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a> </p><p>• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice extent<br /><a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph</a></p><p>• Polar Portal - Sea Ice Thickness and Volume<br /><a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume">http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume</a></p><div>• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice</div><div><a href="https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start">https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start</a></div><div><br /></div>• Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.<br /><div><a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu">https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu</a></div><br />• Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO₂ - by The Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project (CenCO₂PIP) Consortium</div><div><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177?fbclid=IwAR3X_sZDKDOg4T_8BJmDC5gz0cxJSib9WD33bjRtZPPZd0A32Q-ARXPB1q0">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177</a><br />discussed at: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161165563844679">https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161165563844679</a><br /><div><br /></div><div>• NOAA - Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomalies</div><div><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/1/0/1850-2024">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/1/0/1850-2024</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/double-blue-ocean-event-2024.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/double-blue-ocean-event-2024.html</a><br /><br /></div>• Potential Temperature Trends<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html</a><br /><br /></div><div>• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html</a><br /><br />• Albedo and more<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html</a><br /><br />• Latent Heat<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html</a><br /><br />• Jet Stream</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html</a><br /><br />• Feedbacks in the Arctic</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html</a><br /><br />• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a><br /><br />• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="563" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168809375550161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><br /><br /></div></div></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-34755057823157937792024-01-19T04:06:00.000-08:002024-02-14T00:24:50.065-08:00Potential temperature trends<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBOBxyk0Cb8a4vOCn4mwBUBY0t1t52h1Ingczn0UwiAcRfQ2tt7Sps0zFsQ78-C9OKlux9J1oecHEmJeqjxYJtvU0RtjLy6Jdz3884lUckHq-K11MJ0FMVskMkSC3I-oKCE5rRh-3MB8m0CXADb2Sg-j7Nd8Nk9lhFxhp9pxxDt4q-X43aja4JB1D-sDQ/s1200/Three-kinds-of-temperature-rise.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBOBxyk0Cb8a4vOCn4mwBUBY0t1t52h1Ingczn0UwiAcRfQ2tt7Sps0zFsQ78-C9OKlux9J1oecHEmJeqjxYJtvU0RtjLy6Jdz3884lUckHq-K11MJ0FMVskMkSC3I-oKCE5rRh-3MB8m0CXADb2Sg-j7Nd8Nk9lhFxhp9pxxDt4q-X43aja4JB1D-sDQ/w640-h336/Three-kinds-of-temperature-rise.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
</div>
<p>The above image shows potential temperature trends. Four of the trends are global ones and one trend is based on Arctic (64°North-90°North) data:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The red line is a polynomial trend based on 15 years of Arctic data (2009-2023).</li><li>The green line is a linear trend based on 1880-2023 global data.</li><li>The yellow line is a linear trend based on 2009-2023 global data.</li><li>The light blue line is a 10-year moving average (trailing), based on global data.</li><li>The dark blue line is a polynomial trend, based on 2015-2023 global data, showing global temperatures catching up with the Arctic rise in temperature.</li></ul><p></p><p>Note that the above image uses annual anomalies from 1951-1980. Recent posts show that, when adjustments are made for an earlier base, for ocean air temperatures and for higher polar anomalies, the 2023 anomaly could be as high as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-crossed-in-2024.html">2.5°C</a> from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a> and when using monthly data, the anomaly could be as high as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html">2.73°C</a> from pre-industrial. </p><p><b>Temperature rise hits Arctic most strongly </b></p><p>Due to feedbacks such as sea ice loss, the temperature rise is felt most strongly at higher latitudes North, as illustrated by the three images below, again using a 1951-1980 baseline.</p><p>The image below shows the December 2023 temperature anomaly. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhlJCwRPmH8ZWQqeR-3rkIv0TGjkX-O06upaT5UzOLOXmrecXpp0Xw6OzVIpBeKqScO29FwtH9u86aEe_Eix6Yh96MCkPUnDa7JD6uuNiRBG3DM_5ZG6qPVIPxRsoJZ02MN0nJXQ5x2exJvXvgWcBm5K1QG2mbB7l5fbTaZtAwvctkWRneeAfY25VTW1g/s1025/December-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="1025" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhlJCwRPmH8ZWQqeR-3rkIv0TGjkX-O06upaT5UzOLOXmrecXpp0Xw6OzVIpBeKqScO29FwtH9u86aEe_Eix6Yh96MCkPUnDa7JD6uuNiRBG3DM_5ZG6qPVIPxRsoJZ02MN0nJXQ5x2exJvXvgWcBm5K1QG2mbB7l5fbTaZtAwvctkWRneeAfY25VTW1g/w640-h492/December-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The image below shows the 2023 temperature anomaly. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixxZhYz9GcLh0Tuk__uE3-zxo2YHAO3WJVhlnbE0lNKeXX7glTwflQwMjNTwoTNV4ESI5WD0w_-KE4bJC5qFuLeOmPXRH_O_ml0VpUFrqcEdLShDsd2aZbAToZLo6kjYDImi8EZ3dVhKAYwh3Y7gL4C6fNtwFvh1vr-0QdvZR-orKGpFX1b90C7EjCobA/s1031/annual-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1031" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixxZhYz9GcLh0Tuk__uE3-zxo2YHAO3WJVhlnbE0lNKeXX7glTwflQwMjNTwoTNV4ESI5WD0w_-KE4bJC5qFuLeOmPXRH_O_ml0VpUFrqcEdLShDsd2aZbAToZLo6kjYDImi8EZ3dVhKAYwh3Y7gL4C6fNtwFvh1vr-0QdvZR-orKGpFX1b90C7EjCobA/w640-h486/annual-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The image below shows how the temperature rise has unfolded from 2000. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbzxPXq-KLhzWiZ-QbKSGFfO3g_puLZEpLIY6CnAauJnfN2VxUs1oi-evAajIbEDqlEPjkb3IJwBDgi704LzboQKfBkzXGJpb-NI_Y5cUIeA6xQFaid6GmOPU0tttX69R2lr25EkD0ygyspO6NEFu_O5IpOoQc8Nnh85pm4a78kWyV1A9e1c3Y43rZLMU/s850/January-19-2024.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="850" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbzxPXq-KLhzWiZ-QbKSGFfO3g_puLZEpLIY6CnAauJnfN2VxUs1oi-evAajIbEDqlEPjkb3IJwBDgi704LzboQKfBkzXGJpb-NI_Y5cUIeA6xQFaid6GmOPU0tttX69R2lr25EkD0ygyspO6NEFu_O5IpOoQc8Nnh85pm4a78kWyV1A9e1c3Y43rZLMU/w640-h342/January-19-2024.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Arctic Ocean hit most strongly by temperature rise ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<p>Over the next few years, the temperature rise in the Arctic could accelerate even more strongly as a result of crossing of two tipping points, i.e. the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">Latent Heat Tipping Point</a> and the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">Seafloor Methane Tipping Point</a>, as illustrated by the image below, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-crossed-in-2024.html">earlier post</a>. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCqTlihDww5YEWfb85-NXsjP8kvE1KnLrdFFgTWxrbpaCrRBBsywNmbpTu2yct0WW5xq9qyr7NEGtJz2GtfWZ45aZLnZx7MJ8yKrVWNJ6yk-rqpQk6KB9-FBnCV7nriezkjcD66crX4G3dcwbSB6LKcDxeh2YxL7Lanv-Pv1LEkCMugJG1RavXwE5eQI/s1203/NH-ocean-temperature-2023.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1203" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCqTlihDww5YEWfb85-NXsjP8kvE1KnLrdFFgTWxrbpaCrRBBsywNmbpTu2yct0WW5xq9qyr7NEGtJz2GtfWZ45aZLnZx7MJ8yKrVWNJ6yk-rqpQk6KB9-FBnCV7nriezkjcD66crX4G3dcwbSB6LKcDxeh2YxL7Lanv-Pv1LEkCMugJG1RavXwE5eQI/w640-h266/NH-ocean-temperature-2023.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ increasing ocean heat ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div>Note again that annual data are used in the above image. An <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-reached.html">earlier analysis</a> using monthly data shows that the seafloor methane tipping point was reached in August 2023.<br /><br /><b>Arctic sea ice extent</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was larger than many expected. One of the reasons for this is that Greenland ice has been melting faster than previously thought, as pointed out by a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2">recent study</a> that also includes retreat of glaciers that already lie mostly below sea level. More melting of ice on Greenland has resulted in a larger south-bound flow of icebergs and meltwater, contributing to cooling of the North Atlantic sea surface and slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and in turn contributing to suppress temperatures in the Arctic. As a result, loss of Arctic sea ice extent has been less than would otherwise have been the case. Yet, the temperature rise may soon overwhelm this suppression.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Cold freshwater lid at surface of North Atlantic</b></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF3qKP0i318EzqEk9Gkh-60_zYPPnwbylHGBXsFaIcIRsg6E-K9xtJ-0MZMy8NHY-E4VPTom7Wk0-KM798IIXfCrEYolqCt7tY0FlSdIXI3dgrd7YMooSc-al852ynmwc_luevMP88SyF7UuU8YtfCVVMbYy79zOazuYSjrMX6tFchPQqVY6xvh1yv6-k/s824/stratification.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="824" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF3qKP0i318EzqEk9Gkh-60_zYPPnwbylHGBXsFaIcIRsg6E-K9xtJ-0MZMy8NHY-E4VPTom7Wk0-KM798IIXfCrEYolqCt7tY0FlSdIXI3dgrd7YMooSc-al852ynmwc_luevMP88SyF7UuU8YtfCVVMbYy79zOazuYSjrMX6tFchPQqVY6xvh1yv6-k/w640-h368/stratification.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ ocean stratification, from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><br />Slowing down of AMOC and cooling due to heavier melting of Greenland's ice is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean, while a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic, as it did in 2023. A large part of this heat in the North Atlantic can also be present underneath the sea surface. <br /><br />These developments occur at the same time as ocean stratification increases (see above image) as temperatures rise, as more freshwater enters the ocean as a result of more meltwater and of runoff from land and from rivers, and as more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, all of which can contribute to formation and growth of a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">cold, freshwater lid</a> at the surface of the North Atlantic.</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcx_iX9lWiZFciibTpJWr4r6gLYJRP4pxDJpdcwxTPmlkMnRzq6W0UQZBptBx70RhyphenhyphenmeTn-zjcKQSyFaXiwDCv_j5mRdOg9CBlaKD5aj2f68KHIBZzTEMG_qgpmVpjcb2AIVXOJLNDe7U/s748/Ocean-Heat-8.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="178" data-original-width="748" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcx_iX9lWiZFciibTpJWr4r6gLYJRP4pxDJpdcwxTPmlkMnRzq6W0UQZBptBx70RhyphenhyphenmeTn-zjcKQSyFaXiwDCv_j5mRdOg9CBlaKD5aj2f68KHIBZzTEMG_qgpmVpjcb2AIVXOJLNDe7U/s1600/Ocean-Heat-8.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /></div>Furthermore, storms can get stronger as temperatures rise and as changes take place to the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">Jet Stream</a>. Strong wind can temporarily speed up currents that carry huge amounts of ocean heat with them toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html">this one</a>. Much of the ocean heat in the North Atlantic can therefore be pushed abruptly underneath this freshwater lid and flow into the Arctic Ocean.<br /><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">The danger is that huge amounts of ocean heat can abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean and that the influx of ocean heat will destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. </span></div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7LfhvJ7ngN1FBTaIV-puy9rUMEiEIp-gBQ_Z-MN_MTOKqeobwX8UgzgHbFmYB2vfYTMY74OCy6JhyphenhyphenOwRpovwWHA-zjscbSX212pODJEQew4y5egz3OKjtAC17akAWj3gmT1xLIKPk1XX_pk7G13j6g7K5o048-WqjOYccdgXHzh9RX9yzB1dhFDGi4k/s2802/forecast-for-Jan-27-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="956" data-original-width="2802" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7LfhvJ7ngN1FBTaIV-puy9rUMEiEIp-gBQ_Z-MN_MTOKqeobwX8UgzgHbFmYB2vfYTMY74OCy6JhyphenhyphenOwRpovwWHA-zjscbSX212pODJEQew4y5egz3OKjtAC17akAWj3gmT1xLIKPk1XX_pk7G13j6g7K5o048-WqjOYccdgXHzh9RX9yzB1dhFDGi4k/w640-h218/forecast-for-Jan-27-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>This danger is further illustrated by the above compilation image, showing forecasts for January 27, 2024 of:<br />(1) surface wind and temperature (-3.6°C or 25.4°F at the North Pole)<br />(2) surface wind<br />(3) wind at 700 hPa<br />(4) wind at 250 hPa (Jet Stream) and<br />(5) ocean currents at surface and wave height.</div><div><br /></div><div>The image below shows that temperatures are forecast to be above freezing near the North Pole on January 26, 2024 20:00 UTC (downloaded January 26, 2024 06:00 UTC). </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJm7x1FkQdKmTGLkwjWO-an2b9bh5em97G9Ud7fje0CiPqLALWaVywpWkWGmQOxM7CN4dIBUgJ_EpG4eunUxUlgCeqHmcSy9rtl10RRJf6v648o0zlkst-5WdP5pJrkq2uPP59uRGvJ3mKLfvyJrm_XtmeG9rKhUTVHSV8m9Ygw_O-U4EU4ANZgGFlc7o/s970/January-26-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="970" data-original-width="970" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJm7x1FkQdKmTGLkwjWO-an2b9bh5em97G9Ud7fje0CiPqLALWaVywpWkWGmQOxM7CN4dIBUgJ_EpG4eunUxUlgCeqHmcSy9rtl10RRJf6v648o0zlkst-5WdP5pJrkq2uPP59uRGvJ3mKLfvyJrm_XtmeG9rKhUTVHSV8m9Ygw_O-U4EU4ANZgGFlc7o/w640-h640/January-26-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Ominously, the North Atlantic sea surface was much hotter in early 2024 than it was in early 2023.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL1XI2f9m7EKN_znnZBQzZnipeb34W4n_0RCG8Ly06rTdAwACIgr_w0_cVA1-xDRpUNsv2-m4s1ansWNLZriau8OaCk03pvcOhRKs-Dicpq7vpUAeuek5PA1SO7TAmknYwouYYaeyud9V9ltfdK8TVuX639aXdIasKHI8RbUOgMWnCACK2j4JFu9nOki0/s1093/Jan-27-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="1093" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL1XI2f9m7EKN_znnZBQzZnipeb34W4n_0RCG8Ly06rTdAwACIgr_w0_cVA1-xDRpUNsv2-m4s1ansWNLZriau8OaCk03pvcOhRKs-Dicpq7vpUAeuek5PA1SO7TAmknYwouYYaeyud9V9ltfdK8TVuX639aXdIasKHI8RbUOgMWnCACK2j4JFu9nOki0/w640-h420/Jan-27-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />And ominously, the daily sea surface temperature reached a record high on January 31, 2024, when the daily sea surface temperature reached 21.10°C, higher than the peak of 21.09°C reached in August 2023 and much higher than the 20.99°C peak reached in March 2016.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglh5ay6uK8j1sny-ahEKL3SIONKUAKN-FqJbK1Ejx3V3-GeYE3wZxFOcOl7ZX73F4F40i5TW60x3STGdco6CWZXSniJno00zfbG_5yTUzGHkQTe4frdWC_euuyVdAyKhNxZAtRRDkSky0zdK0kVvcgzkCU1q5Oo5q_k6-i_cypVqVftHwrBrCh74KyKZ0/s1111/January-31-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="1111" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglh5ay6uK8j1sny-ahEKL3SIONKUAKN-FqJbK1Ejx3V3-GeYE3wZxFOcOl7ZX73F4F40i5TW60x3STGdco6CWZXSniJno00zfbG_5yTUzGHkQTe4frdWC_euuyVdAyKhNxZAtRRDkSky0zdK0kVvcgzkCU1q5Oo5q_k6-i_cypVqVftHwrBrCh74KyKZ0/w640-h416/January-31-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>As latent heat buffer shrinks, Arctic sea ice could melt away quickly</b></div><div><br /></div><div>As illustrated by the image below, sea ice was very thin near the North Pole on January 24, 2024, indicating there is very little left of the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">latent heat</a> buffer constituted by the sea ice to consume incoming heat. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI9f2ezeVJ00lGfycx8SRex_zaSCRwlRsDGJLiznaHNgbj8P2z6fHkXtRKq7N4wqpkOL4xBllyvnU-hboPtwYbw7gLOMe4wT14ArmJBR-t3jbyvn0m6QHfxhsK-50S7TLmYMyq5TYOLckRKYwJ2Z6iUwZr6zoFvnZTQGAf5sQ5Wdmw3jG07fQBlm1Espc/s757/Thickness-Jan-24-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI9f2ezeVJ00lGfycx8SRex_zaSCRwlRsDGJLiznaHNgbj8P2z6fHkXtRKq7N4wqpkOL4xBllyvnU-hboPtwYbw7gLOMe4wT14ArmJBR-t3jbyvn0m6QHfxhsK-50S7TLmYMyq5TYOLckRKYwJ2Z6iUwZr6zoFvnZTQGAf5sQ5Wdmw3jG07fQBlm1Espc/s16000/Thickness-Jan-24-2024.png" /></a></div><div>And even more ominously, Arctic sea ice thickness declined dramatically in a few days time, as indicated by the compilation image below, with images from the University of Bremen. <br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6BnVLAcPAxJSgvugGIKUYP9f6J2-HMjMNiKDJqiGxpwEhavbaDCbrGBxhatRzkI7BftksXcnsKAs7pUAgqcEpHfVmMz8gBkTJHmrnBFyPyFP5MRLHRtvUtqhuOTSSEoSdShFwExhNbbksQHYX13gyxOu9adpTKRb0Xcogo3gmJx2rF9lQtE0uq5D3K20/s1860/Thickness-Jan-27-28-29-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="1860" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6BnVLAcPAxJSgvugGIKUYP9f6J2-HMjMNiKDJqiGxpwEhavbaDCbrGBxhatRzkI7BftksXcnsKAs7pUAgqcEpHfVmMz8gBkTJHmrnBFyPyFP5MRLHRtvUtqhuOTSSEoSdShFwExhNbbksQHYX13gyxOu9adpTKRb0Xcogo3gmJx2rF9lQtE0uq5D3K20/w640-h260/Thickness-Jan-27-28-29-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>For the time of year, Arctic sea ice extent is currently still extensive, compared to earlier years, which is a reflection of more water vapor in the atmosphere and more precipitation. While sea ice extent is relatively large, Arctic sea ice volume now is among the lowest of all years on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. Volume = extent x thickness, so low volume and relatively large extent means that sea ice is very thin. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2bVe3IGYPk6kVasS9tpOlfhpiTApWgpkVNzyORDasFqXJ13dsjSCnxTAXOJPS03MRT1jpWJQvHRjWxIOY7cGNT15n5f8UpoUyVJuQkVg5lsOLjAoaZX5pd8WfrxN9-xsHPSTOwnR9YufNFgsX3-t84uAm66dYoKirCZkQVaTSH0epdm_v1SZwC_fY4PE/s1093/January-25-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="1093" height="530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2bVe3IGYPk6kVasS9tpOlfhpiTApWgpkVNzyORDasFqXJ13dsjSCnxTAXOJPS03MRT1jpWJQvHRjWxIOY7cGNT15n5f8UpoUyVJuQkVg5lsOLjAoaZX5pd8WfrxN9-xsHPSTOwnR9YufNFgsX3-t84uAm66dYoKirCZkQVaTSH0epdm_v1SZwC_fY4PE/w640-h530/January-25-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>As more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere, in line with seasonal changes, Arctic sea ice extent can be affected dramatically and abruptly, as illustrated by the image below.</div><div><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirLCVa3KB-DfaoZPLwVIII4JYIlybp3n3uZP0AWS9qE7HOw7mn-uIh5V7B3-Ac82O1CQT1HGnCxLxu4A14M7OT09-XxYR9IxlmwPP54SysjxnWSyFumpNgv7zQ0A3QWVSbdV2APznI2rigH8OYXGcziz9FQYM4-RltifNRBHdxDIuSm9ubmKwvcBqsNGo/s940/January-19-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="940" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirLCVa3KB-DfaoZPLwVIII4JYIlybp3n3uZP0AWS9qE7HOw7mn-uIh5V7B3-Ac82O1CQT1HGnCxLxu4A14M7OT09-XxYR9IxlmwPP54SysjxnWSyFumpNgv7zQ0A3QWVSbdV2APznI2rigH8OYXGcziz9FQYM4-RltifNRBHdxDIuSm9ubmKwvcBqsNGo/w640-h624/January-19-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>Furthermore, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below. This means that this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCUfBnpN7yHVNemAwxSP1BS3RbaDl5vLsb2q4MJ0ETrCI1UjOj30iQZqE0DlonHI4lhHXPWyjs3xN0ZMKlX6VK8K2yBMqWC1o_nXCGugqsnOvs4hQzy97-3nVRb8z_UUR_AkW5QIu9MwkMxnUehO0nf7fa-RxJtzl0DU9w80osaSB4ehhbSopk5xVqUkQ/s1194/January-30-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1194" data-original-width="1100" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCUfBnpN7yHVNemAwxSP1BS3RbaDl5vLsb2q4MJ0ETrCI1UjOj30iQZqE0DlonHI4lhHXPWyjs3xN0ZMKlX6VK8K2yBMqWC1o_nXCGugqsnOvs4hQzy97-3nVRb8z_UUR_AkW5QIu9MwkMxnUehO0nf7fa-RxJtzl0DU9w80osaSB4ehhbSopk5xVqUkQ/w590-h640/January-30-2024.jpg" width="590" /></a></div><div>Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, such an influx of ocean heat could destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. </div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s1600/Buffer.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s640/Buffer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ The buffer is gone - <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">Latent Heat Tipping Point</a> crossed ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div></div><div>Given methane's very high immediate global warming potential (GWP), this could push up temperatures dramatically and rapidly. </div><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS-TBUBwwiVdCv1rHTpQytfTEVX6LByzJa_6o6OVmxUlyVT_346XLcNW_fgwVKcJKKTZkaDYwyiXjZe7OUyPYnxhu_YGDYRgXud9Hbou5mNaIZAriEhfPaayMR7dOMzFBIbvtsFuoT-a6Cy9TgHzoTFgu2KnjAQ_Rrry03IDGgVIeyQYY0BbLR6x8n/s915/methane-rise-2.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="915" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS-TBUBwwiVdCv1rHTpQytfTEVX6LByzJa_6o6OVmxUlyVT_346XLcNW_fgwVKcJKKTZkaDYwyiXjZe7OUyPYnxhu_YGDYRgXud9Hbou5mNaIZAriEhfPaayMR7dOMzFBIbvtsFuoT-a6Cy9TgHzoTFgu2KnjAQ_Rrry03IDGgVIeyQYY0BbLR6x8n/w640-h290/methane-rise-2.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ potential methane rise, from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div>
<div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s636/potential-rise-2.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s16000/potential-rise-2.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Extinction</a> page ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
</div><div>The above image shows a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022, pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.</div><div><br /></div>A rise in methane concentrations alone may suffice to cause the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">Clouds Tipping Point</a>, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, to get crossed. The resulting clouds feedback could on its own cause the temperature to rise by a further 8°C. <div><br /></div><div>
<div>When further forcing is taken into account, crossing of the Clouds Tipping Point could occur even earlier than in 2027.</div><div>
<br />The image on the right illustrates how a huge temperature could unfold and reach more than 18°C above pre-industrial by 2026.</div>
<div><br /></div>With such a rise, the temperature is likely to keep rising further, with further water vapor accumulating in the atmosphere once the water vapor tipping point gets crossed, as discussed in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/double-blue-ocean-event-2024.html">earlier post</a> and at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html">Could Earth go the same way as Venus?</a> <br /><br />As a rather sobering footnote, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html">earlier post</a>.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoNjEuQUAf3tHeQm6w0aOuzXSNMHbIzlh1ZhDP9cIJOsxSCjBUVn5zwkYUqbl7t1PGVbydvZKKJB-ts26Q68mAt0FKj6aXznWFfpGjs7EtS3V2xNuBAdwzsNPbOAI1CjRizlxPTylT0Y/s1600/Extinct-650x140-new.png" style="color: #cc4411; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: none;"><i><img border="0" data-original-height="140" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoNjEuQUAf3tHeQm6w0aOuzXSNMHbIzlh1ZhDP9cIJOsxSCjBUVn5zwkYUqbl7t1PGVbydvZKKJB-ts26Q68mAt0FKj6aXznWFfpGjs7EtS3V2xNuBAdwzsNPbOAI1CjRizlxPTylT0Y/s1600/Extinct-650x140-new.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<br />
<b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b>
<br /><br />
<div>The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>.</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /><br />
<b>Links</b>
<br />
<br />• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis
<br /><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp">
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp</a><br /><br />• Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 - by Char Greene et al. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2?fbclid=IwAR3DoDwk_woEVCgsHqWBrs-6rGuxDBx1AE8uFwCK3TPaAdKqi9FfFtkSt-M">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2</a><br />discussed at facebook at: <br /><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161223121909679">https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161223121909679</a><br /><br />• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html</a><br /><br />• Latent Heat<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html</a><br /><br />• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a><br /><br />• Could Earth go the same way as Venus?<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html</a><br /><div><br />• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a>
<br />
<br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a>
<br />
<br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a>
<br />
<div><br /></div></div></div></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="812" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168775573170161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-4897920005679728122024-01-14T02:00:00.000-08:002024-03-10T21:29:01.471-07:00Seafloor methane tipping point crossed in 2024?<div>The heat in December 2023 was felt most strongly in the Arctic, as illustrated by the NASA image below, showing anomalies above 1951-1980 as high as 9.9<span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">°C.</span> </div><div>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBGZXUtCcoN_If8TwQfcxHjS3KthVVigTeMkJz_nSyFmeOCJPoyB-ONfL-dl8TIpg9qYSkBRF2lMdsgAlJ74F010XOwC0uvLQeFpUtnsOiIi73mxEFDYJjELrQMG4cv5FIsb6aalXnE9R1igsyE7PuVFWkv_lduhsOCRvWBGE_qAQj1vRcwVTg19Xq5VI/s1200/December-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="757" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBGZXUtCcoN_If8TwQfcxHjS3KthVVigTeMkJz_nSyFmeOCJPoyB-ONfL-dl8TIpg9qYSkBRF2lMdsgAlJ74F010XOwC0uvLQeFpUtnsOiIi73mxEFDYJjELrQMG4cv5FIsb6aalXnE9R1igsyE7PuVFWkv_lduhsOCRvWBGE_qAQj1vRcwVTg19Xq5VI/w640-h400/December-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div>The image below further illustrates heat striking the northern latitudes in 2023, showing that the temperature anomaly in 2023 was 2.19<span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">°C</span> above 1880-1920 in between 24<span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">°North and the North Pole</span>. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHFnxqtNLVmNCYyPuykbp8hHQnx2EguLr1OaM89BprCWcqjDbiQSbfGc3VbKXc3vCU4smgtSB4Frc-7zxIvQ2bwhFLZL8apl2__H8v8-m6g8zQOhAmeiK45M9GXcXdirT_sU2qr1jT_g-G1ayWjUEvz9asdlvNvUsdjzPLmPFi_Slcxe4yCD9rLqFitB8/s923/temp-anomaly-24N-90N.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="923" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHFnxqtNLVmNCYyPuykbp8hHQnx2EguLr1OaM89BprCWcqjDbiQSbfGc3VbKXc3vCU4smgtSB4Frc-7zxIvQ2bwhFLZL8apl2__H8v8-m6g8zQOhAmeiK45M9GXcXdirT_sU2qr1jT_g-G1ayWjUEvz9asdlvNvUsdjzPLmPFi_Slcxe4yCD9rLqFitB8/w640-h384/temp-anomaly-24N-90N.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div><div>The danger is that ocean heat could abruptly be pushed from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, temporarily raising temperatures at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html">this one</a>. <br /><br /><b>Terrifying rise of <span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature anomalies </span></b><br /><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">The image shows the terrifying rise of Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000, illustrating crossing of two tipping points</span>, i.e. the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">Latent Heat Tipping Point</a> and the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">Seafloor Methane Tipping Point</a>. <br /><br />This threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and lead to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1875510021004297">160 to 180-fold</a> when leaving the hydrates. </div><div><br /></div><div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCqTlihDww5YEWfb85-NXsjP8kvE1KnLrdFFgTWxrbpaCrRBBsywNmbpTu2yct0WW5xq9qyr7NEGtJz2GtfWZ45aZLnZx7MJ8yKrVWNJ6yk-rqpQk6KB9-FBnCV7nriezkjcD66crX4G3dcwbSB6LKcDxeh2YxL7Lanv-Pv1LEkCMugJG1RavXwE5eQI/s1203/NH-ocean-temperature-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1203" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCqTlihDww5YEWfb85-NXsjP8kvE1KnLrdFFgTWxrbpaCrRBBsywNmbpTu2yct0WW5xq9qyr7NEGtJz2GtfWZ45aZLnZx7MJ8yKrVWNJ6yk-rqpQk6KB9-FBnCV7nriezkjcD66crX4G3dcwbSB6LKcDxeh2YxL7Lanv-Pv1LEkCMugJG1RavXwE5eQI/w640-h266/NH-ocean-temperature-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />The image is an update of the image below, from a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">2023 post</a> and added here for reference purposes. Check out that post for more on the Latent Heat tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point. <br /><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/s1600/NH-ocean-temperature.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1200" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/w640-h266/NH-ocean-temperature.png" style="border: none; position: relative; text-align: center;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Note that the above analyses are for annual data. An <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-reached.html">earlier analysis</a> using monthly data shows that the seafloor methane tipping point was reached in August 2023. <br /><br />The danger is that, as the latent heat buffer disappears, incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by sea ice, but will instead heat up sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean.
<div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s1600/Buffer.png" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s640/Buffer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px;"><i>Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html" style="color: #771000; text-decoration-line: none;">Feedbacks page</a></i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
Ominously, sea surface temperatures (60°South-60°North) are on the rise in 2024, as illustrated by the image below.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzuMRQe_R34k46h5CFd_a8-t-uR8wNke0UdR7ixoKXwQ305ttHitKYi8mAbweTVOQdHNPzvs5ummNFLE4hgEGHHXm1vtdlcye2j0oaidGQhIrnUThGBNhJ7vMBsTRxCJFPcJmmrwaFYm5bp3kLM2W5L58GyMh-xEMkTD5Uw6VvL7g3-qhIyczj_Z8J5E/s1600/SST-60S-60N.png"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzuMRQe_R34k46h5CFd_a8-t-uR8wNke0UdR7ixoKXwQ305ttHitKYi8mAbweTVOQdHNPzvs5ummNFLE4hgEGHHXm1vtdlcye2j0oaidGQhIrnUThGBNhJ7vMBsTRxCJFPcJmmrwaFYm5bp3kLM2W5L58GyMh-xEMkTD5Uw6VvL7g3-qhIyczj_Z8J5E/w640-h424/SST-60S-60N.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<div>The image below, adapted from <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313/supplemental/page-2">NOAA</a>, shows how high temperatures line up with El Niño months.<br /><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjea-f8a3hI59ygVt9wJsdMZuffhi5mMxNSah9zWppf4GgkHe-doa0bUOmfqTA1llumnkJaGvfGGhuGmepdUBgKA_KmMiGPTZPqZe7V4_NeQdGcThJiDNq-1irfDYD-cn5-Dlus16SU_thblJl9xSPZqVrJaLPMF2gIUAodswjCNDV-9Jet7FgtqVA0qBo/s1786/enso-bars.195001.202312.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="1786" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjea-f8a3hI59ygVt9wJsdMZuffhi5mMxNSah9zWppf4GgkHe-doa0bUOmfqTA1llumnkJaGvfGGhuGmepdUBgKA_KmMiGPTZPqZe7V4_NeQdGcThJiDNq-1irfDYD-cn5-Dlus16SU_thblJl9xSPZqVrJaLPMF2gIUAodswjCNDV-9Jet7FgtqVA0qBo/w640-h196/enso-bars.195001.202312.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><b>Annual temperature anomalies as high as 2.5°C above pre-industrial</b><br /><br />The temperature anomaly in 2023 may be as high as 2.5°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image below. </div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvpb4ljTQhcxkB64iFvX_aUBQKhyGaLLecyEHloltqB9enlA7fTUQ_qgKV34GR0G_ZSbef6rZaX7zAU60kErKoHgTublPG8aS6LS0loqCZgnWFO42Wih4Xy1uRBHOyKU1MT9BXDBu0lUIw0skkJdqLrXtci5XpETC0Ioa2CHSKl0H2DtdM7GK1avpqpw/s900/Potential-rise-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="555" data-original-width="900" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvpb4ljTQhcxkB64iFvX_aUBQKhyGaLLecyEHloltqB9enlA7fTUQ_qgKV34GR0G_ZSbef6rZaX7zAU60kErKoHgTublPG8aS6LS0loqCZgnWFO42Wih4Xy1uRBHOyKU1MT9BXDBu0lUIw0skkJdqLrXtci5XpETC0Ioa2CHSKl0H2DtdM7GK1avpqpw/w640-h394/Potential-rise-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />For more on the analysis behind this potential rise of 2.5°C, see the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial page</a>. Acknowledging the full strength of the rise is important, because of the feedbacks that come with it. Rising temperatures result in more water vapor getting in the atmosphere (<a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-3-2.html">7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming</a>), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. </div><div><br /></div><div>The IPCC likes people to believe that the temperature rise is <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161214309794679">only 1.1°C above pre-industrial</a>, in which case there would be only 7.7% more water vapor in the atmosphere, but with a 2.5°C rise, there would be 17.5% more water vapor in the atmosphere. Those who seek to downplay the danger act as if changes to the Jet Stream and to ocean currents, Arctic sea ice, methane and water vapor can all be ignored. <br /><br /></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">Humans will likely go <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html">extinct with a 3°C rise</a>. The image below shows annual mean global surface temperature (Land-Ocean) created with NASA Land-Ocean temperature anomaly versus 1902-1920, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and an earlier (pre-industrial) base. The blue line shows a polynomial trend based on 1880-2023 data, indicating that a </span>3°C rise could eventuate by 2035. The magenta line shows a polynomial trend based on data from a shorter period (2010-2023), which better reflects short term variables such as El Niño and which indicates that a 3°C rise could eventuate as early as in 2024, i.e. this year. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTufVmy2TqrPeXaFJxGR5JuPPoMrj_rkuQahyvo-0iGHv0kvqO_lbxtY_8YiH8rkxY-sM8db3nzYlB9P4Hgnrzy-jTjkbPhEzl60Micz0oIJGaVKNEnObm1mRSPIxS7mbhYpFJItdXSp75yxXE9b3rlv_ndGCXb94Gtg26HDTSHB7oD_HZu92h1GOpJpQ/s1200/anomaly-from-pre-industrial.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTufVmy2TqrPeXaFJxGR5JuPPoMrj_rkuQahyvo-0iGHv0kvqO_lbxtY_8YiH8rkxY-sM8db3nzYlB9P4Hgnrzy-jTjkbPhEzl60Micz0oIJGaVKNEnObm1mRSPIxS7mbhYpFJItdXSp75yxXE9b3rlv_ndGCXb94Gtg26HDTSHB7oD_HZu92h1GOpJpQ/w640-h336/anomaly-from-pre-industrial.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />Note again that the above analyses are for annual data. An <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html">earlier analysis</a> using monthly data shows that the September 2023 NASA Land+Ocean temperature was 1.78°C higher than it was in September 1923. The anomaly is 1.74°C when compared to a base centered around the year 1900 (1885-1915). This 1.74°C anomaly can be adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, air temperature and higher polar anomalies, adding up to a potential anomaly of 2.73°C. <br /><br /></div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b><br /><br />The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">Climate Emergency Declaration group</a>.<br /><br /><br />
<b>Links</b><br /><br />• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis<br /><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp</a><br /><br />• Sea surface temperature at record high<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html</a><br /><br />• 2024 looks to be worse than 2023<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature anomalies vs 1991-2020<br /><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/12/12/1850-2023">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/12/12/1850-2023</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño<br /><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313/supplemental/page-2">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313/supplemental/page-2</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
<br /><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a><br /><br />• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html</a><br />
<p></p><div>• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html</a><br />
<br />• Latent Heat<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html</a><br />
<br />• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html</a><br />
<br />• Feedbacks<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html</a></div><br />• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a><br /><br />• When Will We Die?</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html</a></div><div><br /></div>• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><br /><br />
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-68063717497487097482024-01-12T17:59:00.000-08:002024-01-12T18:20:33.023-08:00Crossing 1.5C - On track toward an uninhabitable Earth<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i>by Andrew Glikson</i></div><br /><i>
“… but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023)</i><div><br /></div>The macabre criminality of world’s so-called leaders, coupled with the ignorant compliance of a majority of the victims of global heating and potential nuclear annihilation, belong to the inconceivable. It is not clear whether any climate scientists are left to whom governments are listening, for if they did, they would learn that the intensification of extreme weather events currently and later in the century is bound to render large parts of the planet uninhabitable. In particular of islands ravaged by cyclones and sea level rise, extensive tropical and subtropical coastal zones and lands subjected to storms, floods, draughts and fires, in Africa, Australia and India. Polar-sourced cold fronts crossing the weakening jet stream boundary are already disrupting North America, Siberia and Europe, as are warm air masses penetrating the Arctic circle.
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Distracted by a series of horrific bloodsheds induced by toxic masculinity of alpha males around the world, propagated by the “media”, the multitudes are only dimly aware of the oncoming climate carnage, orders of magnitude <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/09/01/the-rising-costs-of-extreme-weather-events/">bigger than currently forecast</a>.
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According to leading climate scientists like James Hansen and his colleagues: “Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (<a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">NASA 2023</a>). It is far from clear whether anything can be done <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming#:~:text=While%20we%20cannot%20stop%20global,(%E2%80%9Cblack%20carbon%E2%80%9D).">to arrest or reverse</a> global heating, for as temperatures rise so is the production of fossil fuels enhanced by science-ignorant hordes of politicians and economists oblivious to the basic laws of physics. Alternative clean energy without sharp cuts in fossil fuel combustion can hardly stem global heating.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2xxqrdLX-KAdCOWbn6RgujVBB9H2uUN_aeX3m5CKN_j7c1GfChBRnCCE9ojBanencuORLtCdRai6iaZYEf0Jmz-XPTHDvtrKrt2GY_5hzlzNYht3Dufa0acmNiA_tOEHo2qv6DAnQAyoprS76vwuuo_xB6Bsbpw5Dh_0AeesxODO3Wo00ZpPIovBl4Y/s1100/1940-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="1100" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2xxqrdLX-KAdCOWbn6RgujVBB9H2uUN_aeX3m5CKN_j7c1GfChBRnCCE9ojBanencuORLtCdRai6iaZYEf0Jmz-XPTHDvtrKrt2GY_5hzlzNYht3Dufa0acmNiA_tOEHo2qv6DAnQAyoprS76vwuuo_xB6Bsbpw5Dh_0AeesxODO3Wo00ZpPIovBl4Y/w640-h428/1940-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ <b>Figure. 1.</b> Daily surface temperature analysis from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5 (ERA5). ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<br />December was the 7th consecutive month of <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Groundhog.04January2024.pdf">record-shattering global temperature</a> (Figure 1.), driven by the combination of a moderately strong El Nino and a large decrease of Earth’s albedo. <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/AnnualT2023.2024.01.12.pdf">Hansen et al. (2024)</a> expect record monthly temperatures to
continue into mid-2024, due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-
month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920. It will be clear that the 1.5°C ceiling has been passed for all practical purposes, and that the mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 2), while the Arctic has been warming nearly <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world#:~:text=That%20warming%20has%20not%20been,than%20it%20was%20in%201980.">four times faster</a> than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/30/south-pole-warming-three-times-faster-than-rest-of-the-world-our-research-shows#:~:text=Climate%20scientists%20long%20thought%20Antarctica" of="" rest="" s="" the="" world.="">3 times than the rest of the world</a>.<br /><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguwnHNqFC2Bh_bmjNiXmvLRIRbUK-Y4MnUeqgVS-KMZhF8dKg2owg_mb5U84FTqUaLE07kihTvra0TR2qGlSbKetPcH0ZqhGsmJZFFmbFmElxJt14lY0zxVdHYuSDff06a29ukmF0u5WGM55QcIMTvifF38JTAM-RxZqt2yO6-GrKe6hkq7g3CL7uB5FA/s654/Hansen-12-Jan-2024.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="654" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguwnHNqFC2Bh_bmjNiXmvLRIRbUK-Y4MnUeqgVS-KMZhF8dKg2owg_mb5U84FTqUaLE07kihTvra0TR2qGlSbKetPcH0ZqhGsmJZFFmbFmElxJt14lY0zxVdHYuSDff06a29ukmF0u5WGM55QcIMTvifF38JTAM-RxZqt2yO6-GrKe6hkq7g3CL7uB5FA/w640-h380/Hansen-12-Jan-2024.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ <b>Figure. 2.</b> Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis<br />(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/AnnualT2023.2024.01.12.pdf" style="text-decoration-line: none;">James Hansen et al.</a>, 2024. ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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A projection by <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/global-warming-frequently-asked-questions#hide28">NOAA</a> states:<i> “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). </i>Unfortunately, this projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming oceans, melting ice sheets, migrating climate zones and melting of methane, nor the time factor into account.<br /><br />
A factor rarely taken into account emerges from <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf">Hansen et al. (1996)</a>'s paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous” (Figure 3). Here the flow of cold ice melt water results in formation of large cold-water pools of in the Atlantic and Southern oceans, inducing a contraction of the tropical climate zone and an overall decline in mean global temperatures. The collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical warm air mass would lead to severe storms over large tracts of Earth.
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Likely transient respites in global warming (stadials) may take place over the next few centuries or longer, when the flow of cold <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02458-x">ice-melt water from the Greenland and Antarctica</a> ice sheets (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0712-z">Bronselaer et al., 2018</a>; <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02458-x">Glikson, 2019</a>) reduces the mean rate of warming, although this may occur too late for civilization (Figure 3).
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5xykraKecXO3Zwle0WCtHkl4IcNvHgcpZR-AZCavVt79WdR_xdbVPkiJw82-rJbMKXQljMtS_qI10_Sfq4MJarwyOjkVrYNVJRm7BTXaRIUiqmvJB2lwBFuLGfgxde1alDWvW8-QJIBBrf8I9VxJUTV3emp6OA2rqmIz2-DINKj0hhjSaiHD1yAZC-Ng/s658/Hansen.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="658" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5xykraKecXO3Zwle0WCtHkl4IcNvHgcpZR-AZCavVt79WdR_xdbVPkiJw82-rJbMKXQljMtS_qI10_Sfq4MJarwyOjkVrYNVJRm7BTXaRIUiqmvJB2lwBFuLGfgxde1alDWvW8-QJIBBrf8I9VxJUTV3emp6OA2rqmIz2-DINKj0hhjSaiHD1yAZC-Ng/w640-h248/Hansen.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption"><i>[ <b>Figure 3.</b> Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">James Hansen et al. 2016</a>.<br />Future model transient cooling periods consequent on flow of ice meltwater from Greenland and Antarctica into oceans ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic leaders, matched by the blindness of billions, supports what has been referred to as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#:~:text=The%20Fermi%20paradox%20is%20the,have%20come%20calling%20by%20now.%22">Fermi’s Paradox</a> ─ where the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, may be explained in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.
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Having ignored climate science, dismissed or fired climate scientists and repeatedly confected lies, while global <a href="https://www.democraticunderground.com/1127171314">heating accelerates with deleterious consequences</a>, Homo “sapiens” is finding itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html">inhabitable Earth</a>, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.
<br /><i><br />A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br /><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-35126080769314947622024-01-07T19:44:00.000-08:002024-01-12T04:40:47.285-08:002024 looks to be worse than 2023<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJaiPufcfgLi64ed1AlXWc9GtP94lKkxSfLtURngBBzYoQGjJxgww5BKaNDWQzTN7bFLjatjLTI6XDgrBRYClMiNpVC1BsFFpUabS91kRukaCzHpyS943kFhsOqoXwNbiWyuIN1co6qOue35EQBc_9vsdlwuj23CGou56Duv2XzlendaGNObJcRNgfgx0/s1100/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1100" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJaiPufcfgLi64ed1AlXWc9GtP94lKkxSfLtURngBBzYoQGjJxgww5BKaNDWQzTN7bFLjatjLTI6XDgrBRYClMiNpVC1BsFFpUabS91kRukaCzHpyS943kFhsOqoXwNbiWyuIN1co6qOue35EQBc_9vsdlwuj23CGou56Duv2XzlendaGNObJcRNgfgx0/w640-h416/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The year 2024 looks to be worse than the year 2023. The above chart shows sea surface temperatures that were extremely high in 2023 followed by a steep rise in 2024, crossing 21°C in early January 2024.
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The chart below illustrates this further, showing the daily sea surface temperature anomaly using 1 Sep. 1981 to 31 Dec. 2023 data versus the 1982-2011 mean for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivsavKHUWviXgpUlLN_yi_TkfzJLwp0Cgfud9K_kGdT8XM7dK1xO-wYm7JA-TbG2KBR65sLPahyphenhyphenU5aQY6uUAT0CAVcQDGKpxQREokjRvEUY8A2jR-ThPxEmNjmu-gUL87yHh4WvPBY5xh2AbEvBvpkW4LdkqTKB4SazO9QOhsDBmcyzX4NYRfm4sxy7UI/s1200/SSTA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivsavKHUWviXgpUlLN_yi_TkfzJLwp0Cgfud9K_kGdT8XM7dK1xO-wYm7JA-TbG2KBR65sLPahyphenhyphenU5aQY6uUAT0CAVcQDGKpxQREokjRvEUY8A2jR-ThPxEmNjmu-gUL87yHh4WvPBY5xh2AbEvBvpkW4LdkqTKB4SazO9QOhsDBmcyzX4NYRfm4sxy7UI/w640-h336/SSTA.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div><b>The importance of sea surface temperatures</b><br /><br />Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) results in less ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and, instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic in 2023.</div>
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Much of the heat in the North Atlantic could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, as storms can temporarily speed up currents strongly, carrying huge amounts of ocean heat with them into the Arctic Ocean.<div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF3qKP0i318EzqEk9Gkh-60_zYPPnwbylHGBXsFaIcIRsg6E-K9xtJ-0MZMy8NHY-E4VPTom7Wk0-KM798IIXfCrEYolqCt7tY0FlSdIXI3dgrd7YMooSc-al852ynmwc_luevMP88SyF7UuU8YtfCVVMbYy79zOazuYSjrMX6tFchPQqVY6xvh1yv6-k/s824/stratification.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="824" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF3qKP0i318EzqEk9Gkh-60_zYPPnwbylHGBXsFaIcIRsg6E-K9xtJ-0MZMy8NHY-E4VPTom7Wk0-KM798IIXfCrEYolqCt7tY0FlSdIXI3dgrd7YMooSc-al852ynmwc_luevMP88SyF7UuU8YtfCVVMbYy79zOazuYSjrMX6tFchPQqVY6xvh1yv6-k/w640-h368/stratification.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
The mechanism behind this has been described often in earlier posts and <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">this page</a>. Meltwater and rain can cause a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">freshwater lid</a> to form and grow at the surface of the North Atlantic and this, in combination with greater stratification as ocean temperatures rise (<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5">above image</a>), can enable more ocean heat to increasingly travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, and especially so at times when Jet Stream changes are causing storms that speed up ocean currents along this path.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS0phU4ZfTrbW0NVNPDkSdcTQUly-C_z8rG5j5i-CiecTyOepEP9u8N5tz-ihKccDoH-Wa1yZoWJjhQtjhTknFZPBuS5-rmFzQUosBI-uSI8nJ4UJ0dUWhx1Xkn0tbcoZJgrt5kymZTattdGf3Vf67X96UxE4CKqRYrVXJZnc2yOJi4YKA5nGqI5E1rpM/s1199/Jet-Stream-Jan-11-2024-forecast.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="1199" height="498" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS0phU4ZfTrbW0NVNPDkSdcTQUly-C_z8rG5j5i-CiecTyOepEP9u8N5tz-ihKccDoH-Wa1yZoWJjhQtjhTknFZPBuS5-rmFzQUosBI-uSI8nJ4UJ0dUWhx1Xkn0tbcoZJgrt5kymZTattdGf3Vf67X96UxE4CKqRYrVXJZnc2yOJi4YKA5nGqI5E1rpM/w640-h498/Jet-Stream-Jan-11-2024-forecast.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The danger is illustrated by the above image, showing a forecast for January 11, 2024, with the Jet Stream moving almost vertically over the North Atlantic to the north. The image below shows heat over the North Atlantic, with temperatures reaching as high as 10.5°C or 50.8°F over Greenland (at the green circle) at 1000 hPa on January 10, 2024, 07:00 UTC.<div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjE_lLadilywTL38RFNCzx8ob8QYPFCTPu5m9RrwkvMCtHF4OURfxcu6MgdRkn5a7IkuVIsnW4KfHpxWoK0XaaROZAzrFYUhyphenhyphenzfaulZ_8OiIwaX_tlTOdZc7MWrKD-WEVuBzfCC7MrvAzHcatele-zIDxTqESAEExQKZE2JIQBdWoKYBDpMLjC2ay5WO8/s1173/January-10-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="937" data-original-width="1173" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjE_lLadilywTL38RFNCzx8ob8QYPFCTPu5m9RrwkvMCtHF4OURfxcu6MgdRkn5a7IkuVIsnW4KfHpxWoK0XaaROZAzrFYUhyphenhyphenzfaulZ_8OiIwaX_tlTOdZc7MWrKD-WEVuBzfCC7MrvAzHcatele-zIDxTqESAEExQKZE2JIQBdWoKYBDpMLjC2ay5WO8/w640-h512/January-10-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />The image below shows 2 meter temperature anomalies on January 11, 2024. <br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSpznI5fb5LWzY_o8SmqjYBRGySN4Hj1wcrNq_v6aK7zcmMfDNtGE6DObd7mua8EIyRogQAJpPP6L_hmpRtFfoVqejkh-FW4r4Wqb92g9qHcxvx8wP4Nog9Dbxm-ZoZyJytk3ZnsFxMftOGeWbDvff18k6PElb-WOrxL_mtGwtld2LIEp1Ynj1BUHQRhY/s807/January-11-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="807" height="616" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSpznI5fb5LWzY_o8SmqjYBRGySN4Hj1wcrNq_v6aK7zcmMfDNtGE6DObd7mua8EIyRogQAJpPP6L_hmpRtFfoVqejkh-FW4r4Wqb92g9qHcxvx8wP4Nog9Dbxm-ZoZyJytk3ZnsFxMftOGeWbDvff18k6PElb-WOrxL_mtGwtld2LIEp1Ynj1BUHQRhY/w640-h616/January-11-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Very high sea surface temperature anomalies can occur in the path of the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image below showing high sea surface temperatures on January 3, 2024, as high as 11.7°C (21°F) at the green circle, over the counterpart of the Gulf Stream in the Pacific, off the coast of Japan. <br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0806maLCgA9WdHfu4kXP9anZVSR0GpAkSycnXeakDtXKgrnAY_6UTb18R4zJ9QHJtpPr3iyEl7U1e-wGeNJm1PD6lQRT0dgNoQN0-nDOG3idLmRpFjl1HwvfD9LKrMctuuDLLizLc3st-TWz3we5hCi5TeFIsYFvcfrmX6syk1jiDUznhOIvBrjyXdiU/s1489/SSTA-Jan-3-2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="907" data-original-width="1489" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0806maLCgA9WdHfu4kXP9anZVSR0GpAkSycnXeakDtXKgrnAY_6UTb18R4zJ9QHJtpPr3iyEl7U1e-wGeNJm1PD6lQRT0dgNoQN0-nDOG3idLmRpFjl1HwvfD9LKrMctuuDLLizLc3st-TWz3we5hCi5TeFIsYFvcfrmX6syk1jiDUznhOIvBrjyXdiU/w640-h390/SSTA-Jan-3-2024.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Earlier posts have warned about this, such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html">this post</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10154168391051366">this video</a>, almost seven years ago. This could cause events during which much ocean heat moves abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in seafloor methane releases, overwhelming of the latent heat buffer and causing sea ice loss (and thus albedo loss), as well as loss of lower clouds (thus causing further albedo loss), while open oceans are also less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum and while an ice-free Arctic Ocean will also release more ocean heat into the atmosphere.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEherBhPFgPJoQkd1IcMhiIZ_Bh-5qrFWfeR5KbHV4TKVXUQyleq2YLpu2CwP58Sny2B8iZFYFoALSamCi0DiERxxjvSJ5QRBbeiBHsDUAtKpAt1EK7YiFe9kF4-9smywuXRmjxQLGsJ3ZJvMweZL8HWE5wlLZrKuIUdy1E_P5LnsMM6tfb2bIm-DuZuJoU/s1044/Volume-Jan-7-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1044" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEherBhPFgPJoQkd1IcMhiIZ_Bh-5qrFWfeR5KbHV4TKVXUQyleq2YLpu2CwP58Sny2B8iZFYFoALSamCi0DiERxxjvSJ5QRBbeiBHsDUAtKpAt1EK7YiFe9kF4-9smywuXRmjxQLGsJ3ZJvMweZL8HWE5wlLZrKuIUdy1E_P5LnsMM6tfb2bIm-DuZuJoU/w640-h524/Volume-Jan-7-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Arctic sea ice volume is very low for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9etiSqZQwOqyh2Hf8IaOYL6zuEw4x1Ascy2Fk951EvpL2NM8YWX6gCB3yLj2nPjbLuOJ0a7EBT-EzQPDbQt9sZ3GYhz_qUZ-1t1tmBoBxp2zT-EZhDnZVI7VjVgiGVbx6QUozmWZyM_GSmPcIvgZT1Rg-dWmZkienkTOqdDfAa82_d1U92NTUYtmUdy0/s864/map.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="785" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9etiSqZQwOqyh2Hf8IaOYL6zuEw4x1Ascy2Fk951EvpL2NM8YWX6gCB3yLj2nPjbLuOJ0a7EBT-EzQPDbQt9sZ3GYhz_qUZ-1t1tmBoBxp2zT-EZhDnZVI7VjVgiGVbx6QUozmWZyM_GSmPcIvgZT1Rg-dWmZkienkTOqdDfAa82_d1U92NTUYtmUdy0/w582-h640/map.jpg" width="582" /></a></div>
<div>A large part of the thicker sea ice is located off Greenland's East Coast, as illustrated by the above image. Much of the sea ice will therefore rapidly disappear as the water heats up in 2024.<br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5hj9aR5q8U7oQ6u25DymY5qGSgqO5jjbqGlbcYYHcACJa-hxrbN08ZD7dcQEWi3o5k3jtPAuultZFNfvsj7TzlFBba7ifSqepyJnASndcZ7_rZPVpxKiZi8LCdiOnYEcRoIY0yNF-BpOrQPEaoPD8DnplRT9yflNyyTfHpLPjfg8uT341HYNGXQaIO-M/s1050/November-2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="1050" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5hj9aR5q8U7oQ6u25DymY5qGSgqO5jjbqGlbcYYHcACJa-hxrbN08ZD7dcQEWi3o5k3jtPAuultZFNfvsj7TzlFBba7ifSqepyJnASndcZ7_rZPVpxKiZi8LCdiOnYEcRoIY0yNF-BpOrQPEaoPD8DnplRT9yflNyyTfHpLPjfg8uT341HYNGXQaIO-M/w640-h316/November-2024.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div><br />The above image, adapted from <a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/">tropicaltidbits.com</a>, shows a forecast for October 2024 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean.<br /><br /></div><div>In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMxsu1E88NA">video</a> below, Jennifer Francis is interviewed by Nick Breeze. </div>
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<div><b>The importance of daily air temperatures, Northern Hemisphere</b></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjThZCbjEE9OFaP3yTJKrgpHi4inXKNKcvS8hwxaRf6Rgiz31Bv1OLvRzQnbH1aXbcLMAe5UI1oz51Ik_4RC7WijGiWkGauhkxewhOdPm9nyqSOWIlvMfkA_IcM0C1Eo0MyYulDgsLaEdZ6GXQKJ2uRELVCLfyRb1Dh-Ygk4akJ_VM_qXL8SNStm12vhc/s1200/Anomaly-NH.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjThZCbjEE9OFaP3yTJKrgpHi4inXKNKcvS8hwxaRf6Rgiz31Bv1OLvRzQnbH1aXbcLMAe5UI1oz51Ik_4RC7WijGiWkGauhkxewhOdPm9nyqSOWIlvMfkA_IcM0C1Eo0MyYulDgsLaEdZ6GXQKJ2uRELVCLfyRb1Dh-Ygk4akJ_VM_qXL8SNStm12vhc/w640-h336/Anomaly-NH.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s636/potential-rise-2.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s16000/potential-rise-2.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">Extinction</a> page ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The situation is dire. The Northern Hemisphere is getting hit hardest by high temperatures, as illustrated by the above image. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Northern Hemisphere is home to some 90% of the world population of more than 8 billion people, with much of them living in South-East Asia.<br /><br />As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in. </div>
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<div>People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. </div>
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<div>Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. </div>
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<div>As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise.
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The image on the right illustrates how fast a huge temperature could unfold.
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As a somewhat sobering footnote, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as discussed in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html">earlier post</a>. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoNjEuQUAf3tHeQm6w0aOuzXSNMHbIzlh1ZhDP9cIJOsxSCjBUVn5zwkYUqbl7t1PGVbydvZKKJB-ts26Q68mAt0FKj6aXznWFfpGjs7EtS3V2xNuBAdwzsNPbOAI1CjRizlxPTylT0Y/s1600/Extinct-650x140-new.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="140" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoNjEuQUAf3tHeQm6w0aOuzXSNMHbIzlh1ZhDP9cIJOsxSCjBUVn5zwkYUqbl7t1PGVbydvZKKJB-ts26Q68mAt0FKj6aXznWFfpGjs7EtS3V2xNuBAdwzsNPbOAI1CjRizlxPTylT0Y/s1600/Extinct-650x140-new.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></div>
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<div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b>
<br /><br />The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">this group</a>. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Links</b>
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<div>• Climate Reanalyzer <br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org">https://climatereanalyzer.org</a>
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<div>• Nullschool</div><div><a href="https://earth.nullschool.net">https://earth.nullschool.net</a>
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<div>• Polar Portal<br /><a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume">http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume</a>
<br /><br /></div>• New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023 - by Lijing Checg et al. (2024)<div><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5">https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5</a></div><br />• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html</a><br /><br />
<div>• Extinction</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a></div>
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<div>• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a>
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• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a></div></div><br /><br />
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<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="735" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168748878935161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-1550756659883596812023-12-22T14:55:00.000-08:002023-12-22T16:49:15.514-08:00Too late to save the climate?<div style="text-align: center;"><i>by Andrew Glikson</i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><br /></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>“Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise </i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (<a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">NASA 2023</a>)</i></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i>“We Will Not Sign Our Own Death Warrant” <a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/cop28-betrayal-we-will-not-sign-our-own-death-warrant-delegate-says-after-al-jaber-circulates-unacceptable-declaration/">(a delegate at COP28)</a></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Whether <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming#:~:text=While%20we%20cannot%20stop%20global,(%E2%80%9Cblack%20carbon%E2%80%9D).">anything can be done by humans to arrest or reverse</a> global warming and its consequences for the habitability of planet Earth remains an open question, for which neither climate science nor the ignorant hordes of politicians and economists, oblivious to the basic laws of physics, have the answer. However, it is likely that over the next centuries or longer the flow of cold water from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will lead to a <b>transient</b> slowdown of the rate of warming before the large ice sheets are exhausted.<br /><br /><hr /><br />Having ignored climate science, dismissed climate scientists and repeatedly confected untruths, while global <a href="https://www.democraticunderground.com/1127171314">heating accelerates with deleterious consequences</a>, Homo “sapiens” finds itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html">inhabitable Earth</a>, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.<br /><br />In a new paper, a group of leading climate scientists (<a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/MeasuringStick.2023.12.14.pdf">Hansen et al., 2023</a>) indicates mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0<i style="text-align: center;">°</i>C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 1). The Arctic is warming nearly <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world#:~:text=That%20warming%20has%20not%20been,than%20it%20was%20in%201980.">four times faster</a> than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/30/south-pole-warming-three-times-faster-than-rest-of-the-world-our-research-shows#:~:text=Climate%20scientists%20long%20thought%20Antarctica" of="" rest="" s="" the="" world.="">3 times faster than the rest of the world</a>.<br /><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi55Dd7pdy2DdHKPYeiXEveU_sJPTpY8mtoMPJqRJn_DnS_h5dskviMbVEIYtU4_PN2fd1LSk3qiQX9rF34UvOr1gjLSf3OmnRfP6NXHRgGvzYSd5Gs9ED2jo85B-YNgFN7VPQ2ZJJwCYunceuT-3SRz6vXyAZrUK4rw-u8FVumF5-BkXXuzc5DgfZCI6w/s564/Hansen-14-Nov-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="379" data-original-width="564" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi55Dd7pdy2DdHKPYeiXEveU_sJPTpY8mtoMPJqRJn_DnS_h5dskviMbVEIYtU4_PN2fd1LSk3qiQX9rF34UvOr1gjLSf3OmnRfP6NXHRgGvzYSd5Gs9ED2jo85B-YNgFN7VPQ2ZJJwCYunceuT-3SRz6vXyAZrUK4rw-u8FVumF5-BkXXuzc5DgfZCI6w/w640-h430/Hansen-14-Nov-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Figure. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS <br />(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/MeasuringStick.2023.12.14.pdf">James Hansen et al.</a>, 2023. ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<div>As the polar regions warm, the tropical climate zones expand and the mid-latitudes, where the most fertile soils are and where the bulk of the population lives, are contracting.</div><br />Thus (Figure 2.):<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Agro-climate zones in eastern Europe experienced a northward migration velocity of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001178">100 km per 10 years</a> over the past 40 years.</li><li>Northward migration of climate zones in Europe may be up to two times faster in the next decades.</li><li>Negative impacts of heat stress are expected to non-linearly increase in large parts of southern and southeastern Europe.</li></ul>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeC761LKRdX_W7v6loZhDvL_7NbFB6FAfNN09PbtnC-N6B30ErRXc9Uk1dA8AZuvyull1tWZdDj8xKTIlpM8cKaZ_lMHzPl6k_o0kLeSx3vGUbCJcGKywfnJZB3qs9FKTnXsa-el-nH-kbCp0OxKvQGcRwZ56zbGE0jXy2nSy06Z6ccT66euVmjKOo-ng/s2128/Figure-2.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="919" data-original-width="2128" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeC761LKRdX_W7v6loZhDvL_7NbFB6FAfNN09PbtnC-N6B30ErRXc9Uk1dA8AZuvyull1tWZdDj8xKTIlpM8cKaZ_lMHzPl6k_o0kLeSx3vGUbCJcGKywfnJZB3qs9FKTnXsa-el-nH-kbCp0OxKvQGcRwZ56zbGE0jXy2nSy06Z6ccT66euVmjKOo-ng/w640-h276/Figure-2.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><i>[ Figure 2. (a) Agro-climate zonation of Europe based on growing season length (GSL) and active temperature sum (ATS) for the period between 1975 and 1995.The identified agro-climate zones are named as follows (going from north to south): boreal north (BON), boreal south (BOS), nemoral (NEM), continental (CON), Pannonian (PAN), northern maritime (NMA), southern maritime (SMA) and Mediterranean (MED). (b) The migration of agro-climate zones between the 1975–1995 and 1996–2016 periods. For better distinction, only the areas affected by migration of agro-climate zones are displayed (colored areas), while gray color denotes the areas where the agro-climate zones have not changed - <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001178">Ceglar et al. 2019</a>. ]</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div><br /></div>A <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming">projection by NOAA</a> states: <i>“While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”).</i> This projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming of the oceans, melting ice sheets, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187661021830136X">melting of the permafrost</a>, migrating climate zones, nor the time factor into account.<br /><br />
Factors rendering a potential reversal of global warming in the short term unlikely include:<br /><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px;">The rise of mean global heating above a level of ~1.5<sup>o</sup>C and much higher at the poles above pre-industrial temperatures, polar-ward migration of climate zones, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/%23:~:text%3DAntarctica%2520is%2520losing%2520ice%2520mass,adding%2520to%2520sea%2520level%2520rise.&source=gmail&ust=1703324512373000&usg=AOvVaw1D5xPm43thJGxNshM3Rwlv" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/#:~:text=Antarctica%20is%20losing%20ice%20mass,adding%20to%20sea%20level%20rise." style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px;">melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 24px;">, intensification of extreme weather events, requiring major cooling of the Earth, which is unlikely within the time frame of a tribal-conflicted civilization.<br /><br /></span></li><li>Where scientific breakthroughs would allow effective climate mitigation, for example global cooling by CO₂ drawdown, it is questionable whether Homo sapiens ─ recorded by history as an <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-homo-sapiens-became-the-ultimate-invasive-species/">invasive</a> <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/658712?seq=1">blood-stained tribal species</a> ─ would be able to avoid destroying its home planet.</li></ol>The apparent <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-04-silence-reveals-insights-extraterrestrial-life.html">absence of radio signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way</a> may suggest that advanced civilizations tend to undergo <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/the-short-lifespan-of-technological-civilisations-and-the-future-of-homo-sapiens/">self-destruction</a>, consistent with local observations, referred to as the “<a href="https://johnmenadue.com/the-short-lifespan-of-technological-civilisations-and-the-future-of-homo-sapiens/">Fermi Paradox</a>”.</div><br />A factor <b>rarely taken into account</b> emerges from the key paper <i>“Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”</i>, by <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016">Hansen et al. (1996)</a> (Figure 3.). <div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5xykraKecXO3Zwle0WCtHkl4IcNvHgcpZR-AZCavVt79WdR_xdbVPkiJw82-rJbMKXQljMtS_qI10_Sfq4MJarwyOjkVrYNVJRm7BTXaRIUiqmvJB2lwBFuLGfgxde1alDWvW8-QJIBBrf8I9VxJUTV3emp6OA2rqmIz2-DINKj0hhjSaiHD1yAZC-Ng/s658/Hansen.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="658" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5xykraKecXO3Zwle0WCtHkl4IcNvHgcpZR-AZCavVt79WdR_xdbVPkiJw82-rJbMKXQljMtS_qI10_Sfq4MJarwyOjkVrYNVJRm7BTXaRIUiqmvJB2lwBFuLGfgxde1alDWvW8-QJIBBrf8I9VxJUTV3emp6OA2rqmIz2-DINKj0hhjSaiHD1yAZC-Ng/w640-h248/Hansen.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption"><i>[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016">James Hansen et al. 2016</a>. ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br style="text-align: left;" /></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div>Here the flow of cold ice-melt water results in formation of large cold pools in the Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean (Figure 3), related to an overall decline in mean global temperatures to -0.33<i style="text-align: center;">°</i>C by 2096 (Figure 4.) due to the flow of cold ice-melt water from Greenland and Antarctica. <br /><br />While the collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical war air mass would lead to intense storms over large tracts of Earth, such transient cooling may allow Home "sapiens" a respite from global warming before its home becomes an <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html">uninhabitable planet</a>.</div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOrF0lzZ5Dz3syue_4jCqNobBnGfnKOoYZZyIwUZlbOKpTPV8ssX7AoXgD8ihhHr5RvNEhPiyzmmmif7kte8C1j6qmJJ9ZXh4Nt8Roq0CcRiz0bpmdf7pqv6V0hizwNCvmCMU6aWYOlwytH_TP-fIaAcDZ7_0HaheGJ-__4ZHRwAnGQEa2mwXI88yskBQ/s723/a-total-fresh-water-flux-added-in-North-Atlantic-and-Southern-Oceans-b-resulting-sea.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="723" height="532" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOrF0lzZ5Dz3syue_4jCqNobBnGfnKOoYZZyIwUZlbOKpTPV8ssX7AoXgD8ihhHr5RvNEhPiyzmmmif7kte8C1j6qmJJ9ZXh4Nt8Roq0CcRiz0bpmdf7pqv6V0hizwNCvmCMU6aWYOlwytH_TP-fIaAcDZ7_0HaheGJ-__4ZHRwAnGQEa2mwXI88yskBQ/w640-h532/a-total-fresh-water-flux-added-in-North-Atlantic-and-Southern-Oceans-b-resulting-sea.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Figure 4. Surface air temperature (◦C) relative to 1880–1920 in (a) 2065, (b) 2080, and (c) 2096. Top row is IPCC scenario A1B. Ice melt
with 10-year doubling is added in other scenarios - <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016">James Hansen et al. 2016</a>. ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><i>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br /><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a></div></div><br><br>
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<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168708662705161&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="812" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-72335576446396635952023-12-14T01:37:00.000-08:002024-01-12T04:48:16.811-08:00Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?<p><i>A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2024. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2024. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2024 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice. </i></p>
<p><b>Antarctic sea ice loss</b></p>
<p>The situation regarding Antarctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below, which shows that on December 12, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², a record low for the time of year. </p>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5jubhsUg0PCg45LHPfQFQ55yKhnxaUaK7RoC-kozl_eKNBdFMFv6jt5A4Ocs3Aozjb1IUqcqFmQdzYDFaUFIuo3XkpfDo81h46l-bPc20Lvp6PTIlqZt6iRNXxmGq9ZBlgH6ioZUyEGZFHOqBWerUeCixV650yI1AT6vgAMRW3lVcDjIYKlxPrBmcLoU/s945/December-12-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="914" data-original-width="945" height="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5jubhsUg0PCg45LHPfQFQ55yKhnxaUaK7RoC-kozl_eKNBdFMFv6jt5A4Ocs3Aozjb1IUqcqFmQdzYDFaUFIuo3XkpfDo81h46l-bPc20Lvp6PTIlqZt6iRNXxmGq9ZBlgH6ioZUyEGZFHOqBWerUeCixV650yI1AT6vgAMRW3lVcDjIYKlxPrBmcLoU/w640-h620/December-12-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image adapted from <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">NSIDC</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<p>Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023. Antarctic sea ice extent may well be much lower in February 2024, with sea ice loss fuelled by several self-reinforcing feedback loops, as discussed in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html">earlier post</a>.
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<b>Arctic sea ice loss</b>
<br /><br />The situation regarding Arctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below.</p>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4JGJMVCoh7rZrz46Ct9QTZjRCYVDms4IxOJc1NhhyphenhyphenQariTSJlTRmzv_uAxv_F_FefZKWZuN82X0qEZFX9CDO7J5NX76yS2u-cnr9qplyUJu1DqnjDDENpzo7DkMPBBgJM26b802X0vNVr5Px5F1UkrxOzEeehyphenhyphenDo__0Yv5-LKxnIzVElL_psmmUMrXQA/s1167/Arctic-December-12-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="934" data-original-width="1167" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4JGJMVCoh7rZrz46Ct9QTZjRCYVDms4IxOJc1NhhyphenhyphenQariTSJlTRmzv_uAxv_F_FefZKWZuN82X0qEZFX9CDO7J5NX76yS2u-cnr9qplyUJu1DqnjDDENpzo7DkMPBBgJM26b802X0vNVr5Px5F1UkrxOzEeehyphenhyphenDo__0Yv5-LKxnIzVElL_psmmUMrXQA/w640-h512/Arctic-December-12-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image adapted from <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">NSIDC</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
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<p>The above image shows that on December 12, 2023, Arctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², third lowest low for the time of year, behind 2016 and 2020.
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<b>Temperature November 2023</b>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0s78Juiolt1ELzPmr21UN_6_WF55ttZTGzOxg3oNf5yYlTVescPz9JBhbFp5ZxAGZ5S8QEsogW3wIOH3oHwkJpuzPAaBJGYdjn4Ocz5j6_IysrmYke1Dqb0b-2m_2MeWwjzRXPcQX6gcbihCKP3C8LrmG1xrzmECNcaMWVEcmykc_q1XbMyJkfUAFf4s/s1024/CR-era5-0p5deg_31.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1024" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0s78Juiolt1ELzPmr21UN_6_WF55ttZTGzOxg3oNf5yYlTVescPz9JBhbFp5ZxAGZ5S8QEsogW3wIOH3oHwkJpuzPAaBJGYdjn4Ocz5j6_IysrmYke1Dqb0b-2m_2MeWwjzRXPcQX6gcbihCKP3C8LrmG1xrzmECNcaMWVEcmykc_q1XbMyJkfUAFf4s/w640-h490/CR-era5-0p5deg_31.jpg" width="640" /></a>
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The above image shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly compared to a 1951-1980 base. The image below also shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly, but it is not compared to a 1951-1980 base (NASA's default), it is instead compared to a 1900-1923 base. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvbwrKLcBL_RsGlAFolaVDJHtm5vqGvKK3VtPEf3UJ7OWMhVBstBA_U1DETN5AyCRmO0p25niFdFpDFPp7o_GQX8I4DavnFc1jpuiMNbl6FT9c9aHR8HMIcZ2GCxbWv9kEjgdElPuoTJgxtuBvIeQFLP7b9-EWWlfGBPgLhUphAjyeLMN2REHE5a_1l8o/s756/NASA-November-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="756" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvbwrKLcBL_RsGlAFolaVDJHtm5vqGvKK3VtPEf3UJ7OWMhVBstBA_U1DETN5AyCRmO0p25niFdFpDFPp7o_GQX8I4DavnFc1jpuiMNbl6FT9c9aHR8HMIcZ2GCxbWv9kEjgdElPuoTJgxtuBvIeQFLP7b9-EWWlfGBPgLhUphAjyeLMN2REHE5a_1l8o/w640-h412/NASA-November-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Of course, the temperature anomaly will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Further adjustments are required, because the NASA data are for sea surface temperatures (rather than temperatures of the air 2 meters above the sea surface). Also note the grey areas on the above map, signifying that no data are available for earlier years. This especially affects the Arctic, where the anomalies are highest, so disregarding these data is not appropriate. In the image below, data are adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect all this, as discussed at the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a> page.
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKLBBF5_pEfAPsTnnTfvdZ3rlmzqleL4hyphenhyphenOVTlJRM9CighKXmR8HwRKRkL6oFz08Hw3UZLKTyvOmuD6TkS8Hu-DLhzPD3UYlD1Sn8GcZ2Lt44EZtEIwHDTw6K70YxCbDRdUmGrLP6UWRWZ0oB9KJRMjSXGcBr9UFCbGWN-ku93Mnv_svb2U1C7RLDaUM4/s1550/November-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1550" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKLBBF5_pEfAPsTnnTfvdZ3rlmzqleL4hyphenhyphenOVTlJRM9CighKXmR8HwRKRkL6oFz08Hw3UZLKTyvOmuD6TkS8Hu-DLhzPD3UYlD1Sn8GcZ2Lt44EZtEIwHDTw6K70YxCbDRdUmGrLP6UWRWZ0oB9KJRMjSXGcBr9UFCbGWN-ku93Mnv_svb2U1C7RLDaUM4/w640-h260/November-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1900-1923, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Nov. 2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan. 2010-Nov. 2023 data.<p>The above images illustrate that temperatures are rising strongly in the Arctic, which gives a dire warning that a Blue Ocean Event could occur in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere that could further speed up global temperatures, as illustrated by the magenta-colored trend in the above image.
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<b>The situation is dire</b>
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</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXnUXcZ7aX92wcGEBF1GunUSiPo66G23S1YUmfz6Jr-tpCVg4l1lPmdRMIJmIFQnLGYyoNYKG9MX3XPSw4f9QN-sEVNVLoWcKOJ7uhreA6ZLT7xmA3kPW1LxV-4aSJvWk3MjiHpnvAEdAu_LhSFP8hnRW86CWzTNzxyoWuOWTWjlDLsW3RBl0-dAESmbY/s1200/NH-temp-anomaly.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="1200" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXnUXcZ7aX92wcGEBF1GunUSiPo66G23S1YUmfz6Jr-tpCVg4l1lPmdRMIJmIFQnLGYyoNYKG9MX3XPSw4f9QN-sEVNVLoWcKOJ7uhreA6ZLT7xmA3kPW1LxV-4aSJvWk3MjiHpnvAEdAu_LhSFP8hnRW86CWzTNzxyoWuOWTWjlDLsW3RBl0-dAESmbY/w640-h370/NH-temp-anomaly.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere were more than 2°C above 1951-1980 recently (2.024°C in October 2023 and 2.058 in November 2023), as illustrated by the above image. Note that anomalies on the image are calculated from 1951-1980 and that anomalies from pre-industrial are higher.
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Land-only temperature anomalies can be much higher than land+ocean anomalies, since oceans act as a buffer. It is therefore most important to look at the land-only temperature anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere, since that is where the highest anomalies occur, at the very places where most people live. Furthermore, as temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events occur, with an increase in intensity, frequency, duration and area covered by such events. The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis">urban heat island effect</a> can further add to the rising high temperature peaks reached in cities.
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The precautionary principle urges the world to closely watch peak <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html">hourly local wet-bulb globe temperatures</a>, rather than to hide the full wrath of the temperature rise by focusing on global temperature anomalies that are compared to recent base periods and that are averaged over periods going back ten years or longer. <br /><br />Temperatures are rising most rapidly in the Arctic, which contributes to the occurrence of more extreme weather events. Low temperatures in Winter in the Arctic are essential to build up ice thickness to preserve sea ice as the melting season starts.
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<div><br /></div>
<div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivnHWIb1blBrNdgLZxDJi1Lsu5FE2YhGRYnwZLgU4ByY3XpYHFIAneczETAZRCvpQvueJxeVUfdIZ2baN3FtCjQs8YQ37-KYKudbialAEpKuQqLOIvGCHhUSojSaJnM6Qa1AsdrfyTSVJyXcRXp316HO-bV94Hv90t0uGgLuMGZeZbceIV4w-27uCURGg/s1098/Arctic-Dec-15-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="730" data-original-width="1098" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivnHWIb1blBrNdgLZxDJi1Lsu5FE2YhGRYnwZLgU4ByY3XpYHFIAneczETAZRCvpQvueJxeVUfdIZ2baN3FtCjQs8YQ37-KYKudbialAEpKuQqLOIvGCHhUSojSaJnM6Qa1AsdrfyTSVJyXcRXp316HO-bV94Hv90t0uGgLuMGZeZbceIV4w-27uCURGg/w640-h426/Arctic-Dec-15-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Climatology temperatures are 1979-2000 averages and anomalies are calculated<br />from 1979-2000 averages. Black line: 2023. Orange line: 2022. Grey line: 2016. ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Arctic temperature hit a record high for the time of year on December 15, 2023, and an anomaly of 5°C, as the above image shows. Arctic anomalies are the highest in the world, as illustrated by the record 8.3°C anomaly that was reached on November 18, 2016. Since the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal, Arctic anomalies could reach even higher records in the next few months.
<br /><br />
On December 12, 2023, as said, Arctic sea ice extent was third lowest for the time of year, i.e. only 2016 and 2020 were lower. The years 2016 and 2020 had the highest annual temperature (a tie) on record and this annual temperature record is likely to be surpassed in 2023, while 2024 may be even worse, as the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure">minimal</a>.
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</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbsn2MLokhW9TTLFKNz_EJlk5m-urcXtAhdlVL2_xz7yUbaZ4Ek_byMXC9SNin1LR1uBiioi_c7XB69Hz59M-M3-x3lhjQMRrDIXhSYrWGVwO_mh4XrTt6IY8jYevKtPxC8l8Vy6aBB7EzC7NPuX64qpuOrtBiMQ6uqOdaR0WF5Gp8ywYZ2gvcI_aLdzw/s519/Runaway.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="519" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbsn2MLokhW9TTLFKNz_EJlk5m-urcXtAhdlVL2_xz7yUbaZ4Ek_byMXC9SNin1LR1uBiioi_c7XB69Hz59M-M3-x3lhjQMRrDIXhSYrWGVwO_mh4XrTt6IY8jYevKtPxC8l8Vy6aBB7EzC7NPuX64qpuOrtBiMQ6uqOdaR0WF5Gp8ywYZ2gvcI_aLdzw/w640-h350/Runaway.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Water Vapor tipping point ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div><br /></div><div>In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqEd_VpHKLc">video</a> below, Anton Petrov discusses the runaway greenhouse effect. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HqEd_VpHKLc?si=hRivfrN0sVPJ8Xcm" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>
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<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s636/potential-rise-2.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAJaRxbal6geRhvMEED3Qw-t-2A2xxh4OIHHUwJXT_DrvlKBQg3fJbAl0coXl_bVvzBqzC75pEGl2nXhxMcJxVl7b4jxzov1g4LqdvZFEoYcz7IjGYR2w29RmJZb8IW_cAAVw0krMXOVgckoK0Dt4LTqYAFsP2TyNV7DvWds5HCWYAjHJJr_rlh4QnVc/s16000/potential-rise-2.png" /></a></div><div>This is important, as a very small increase in solar irradiation – leading to an increase of the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of degrees – would be enough to trigger an irreversible runaway process on Earth and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, a <a href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html">recent study concludes</a>, as discussed at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/double-blue-ocean-event-2024.html">this post</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026, due to contributions of gases (including water vapor), aerosols, albedo changes and further elements, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed, which could add a further 8°C to the rise.<br /><br />This rise could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to be crossed. The rise in water vapor alone could from then on suffice to push temperatures up further, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation causes a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius. </div><div><br />Arctic sea ice could have been even lower in extent, had the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) not been slowing down. As a result of AMOC's slowing down, less ocean heat is reaching the Arctic Ocean. Instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic and much of this heat could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean as storms temporarily speed up currents that carry ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.</div><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjScaqQ1sfQ8HhIULXvYLuRKsHpYGo_lvsz9vnmvZz83FasuHEErqg-W3FZ311ijF93bpyLWmVwCk4zzprP7wICPv2Vzk-Y4ZNab-ir_I9DfOe1fsQb815iXIouApzGAnjxabgNlUaceJ4lnTT9oA4t8QYxMvgDQgXVwkL9rmKJF2d2R7LFrdfsDgl58Mo/s1093/December-27-2023.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="1093" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjScaqQ1sfQ8HhIULXvYLuRKsHpYGo_lvsz9vnmvZz83FasuHEErqg-W3FZ311ijF93bpyLWmVwCk4zzprP7wICPv2Vzk-Y4ZNab-ir_I9DfOe1fsQb815iXIouApzGAnjxabgNlUaceJ4lnTT9oA4t8QYxMvgDQgXVwkL9rmKJF2d2R7LFrdfsDgl58Mo/s320/December-27-2023.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>Arctic sea ice volume is getting very low, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from <a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume">Polar Portal</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, emissions are high and rising, and politicians refuse to act responsibly, all contributing to further deterioration of the situation, with the danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, further pushing up global temperatures, as discussed in many earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/11/arctic-ocean-heatstroke.html">this one</a> and <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html">this one</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in, as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html">this 2007 post</a> warned about. People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise. <br /><br />Ominously, the highest methane levels on record (surface flasks) were recently reached at Barrow, Alaska, U.S., as illustrated by the image below.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMcW95AfIqNpZGFqt8JVBJVHgFz_3ohkvxAEt37fXcYyhHsS1ohBBhsMZlcVtW37ehZUtB0XfTyZ97-2jRldMQ0fDbPXilxugITKxNJLtcu8YDHnPQdnHvuuxvmB1QaMR6jEBBVs_Fg5_T_TDz6H5sjBc3UbTa7b_82On8QAlmiiowXfO1MSlR-HrGbzw/s1200/Dec-24-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1200" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMcW95AfIqNpZGFqt8JVBJVHgFz_3ohkvxAEt37fXcYyhHsS1ohBBhsMZlcVtW37ehZUtB0XfTyZ97-2jRldMQ0fDbPXilxugITKxNJLtcu8YDHnPQdnHvuuxvmB1QaMR6jEBBVs_Fg5_T_TDz6H5sjBc3UbTa7b_82On8QAlmiiowXfO1MSlR-HrGbzw/w640-h456/Dec-24-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b>
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The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimateEmergencyDeclaration">this group</a>. </div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/s599/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="599" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbuPugGTImyyE2fSGQ9P_Sfn5f7Gz264XnBGmm4Md_tPV4xzrHEM2UqxzPkFFbqGW4t4rRpS2UVRNEqmsfEdMQ20ZBVpWqErjDAThU1fWU2zoSRaBkbHfXLZqrXlaOsccWQucZ-JYZJUt9T6WfjmaZaOUwW8AdyPHBVxrQdSOpVHagqhM-lu-wkl8EIio/w640-h138/Climate-Emergency-Declaration-600x130.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<p><b>Links</b></p>
<div>• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart<br /><a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph</a><br /><br />
• NOAA - December 2023 El Niño update<br /><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - November 2023 temperature anomaly
<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps">https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - Monthly reanalysis time series
<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries">https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily surface air temperature, Arctic
<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic</a>
<br /><br />• NASA - maps
<br /><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps</a>
<br /><br />• NASA - custom plots
<br /><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html</a>
<br /><br />• First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model - by Guillaume Chaverot et al.
<br /><a href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html">https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html</a></div>
<div>Also discussed at:<a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161182685569679"><br />https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161182685569679</a>
<br /><br /></div><div>• Polar Portal</div><div><a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume">http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume</a></div><div><br /></div>
<div>NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska</div><div><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a></div>
<br />
• Will temperatures keep rising fast?<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html</a>
<br /><br />
• Will temperatures keep rising fast?<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html</a>
<br /><br />
• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html</a>
<div><br />• Transforming Society</div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration
<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a>
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<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="721" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168687413860161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div></div></div><p></p></div><p></p>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-42817417654693358412023-12-07T01:45:00.000-08:002023-12-07T02:10:31.555-08:00Climate change terror<div style="text-align: center;"><i>The Dubai’s COP-out <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">denial</a> conference</i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>- by Andrew Glikson -</i></div><br />The issue, betrayed, is nothing more and nothing less than the future of a multitude of species on Earth, including Homo sapiens.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4ZQlvIZmlnR5EuhDAvetfaHJzDe1Fe3ltwCn6Ap8LIFxtklgX0QqCcFxNLiPaiLh2BM4h-N7P6jb00Pol3cCsdioBgGpcc_D4h9Pw4C9jSkWRhJ3SQd6b08YBfnEYKDmWjLMsbDTx8V5cgDodHIkkXVRPZNJTUgTJulZVTO9ME0XkaB5R-Gi5Tp2qws/s795/September-2023.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="795" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4ZQlvIZmlnR5EuhDAvetfaHJzDe1Fe3ltwCn6Ap8LIFxtklgX0QqCcFxNLiPaiLh2BM4h-N7P6jb00Pol3cCsdioBgGpcc_D4h9Pw4C9jSkWRhJ3SQd6b08YBfnEYKDmWjLMsbDTx8V5cgDodHIkkXVRPZNJTUgTJulZVTO9ME0XkaB5R-Gi5Tp2qws/w640-h244/September-2023.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption"><i>Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24<br />El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (El Nino Peak<br />Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated. Credit: <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/ElNinoFizzles.13October2023.pdf" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">James Hansen</a> et al. (Oct. 2023)</i><br />
<i><b> Figure 1.</b> <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/ElNinoFizzles.13October2023.pdf">Comparative El-Nino trends 1997, 1998, 2015, 2016, 2023 relative to 1880-1920</a>.
</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<br />As confirmed by the acceleration of climate extremes, consistent with the <a href="http://%28/">prediction</a> by <a href="https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2246">Wallace Broecker</a>, the authoritative climate scientist, global climate change is racing beyond tipping points (Figure 1), yet the evidence continues to be denied, including in the recent COP-28 climate conference, where climate scientists are almost nowhere to be seen.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiok9h_cIWipQWikdR5iSXYyNQXl5upyIDPdXfvZ-0vDUeTVxZRjHd2adv7P7Jb-MgTxsFiUmo80tsXqueuKkipg-9LtLh_dmETxrriH_FjSHmB3n8l6nZYIdGz1v24RulXCb8vGWysol_KTlYs8oQ38jdSpVwvhIkj-YwakthKEff8X0GD8Ucha066Bg/s545/image002.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="545" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiok9h_cIWipQWikdR5iSXYyNQXl5upyIDPdXfvZ-0vDUeTVxZRjHd2adv7P7Jb-MgTxsFiUmo80tsXqueuKkipg-9LtLh_dmETxrriH_FjSHmB3n8l6nZYIdGz1v24RulXCb8vGWysol_KTlYs8oQ38jdSpVwvhIkj-YwakthKEff8X0GD8Ucha066Bg/w640-h548/image002.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Figure <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">2</a>a.</b> Based on NOAA’s temperature data Earth’s temperature rose by an average of 0.08° C per decade since 1880; Since 1981 the warming rate is 0.18° C per decade. The 2022 surface temperature was 0.86 °C warmer than the 20th-century average of 13.9 °C and 1.06 ˚C warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900). The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<br />
As temperatures rise (Figure 2a), <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=fires+engulf+large+tracts+of+land&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=fires+engulf+large+tracts+of+land&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigAdIBCTUxMDVqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">fires engulf large tracts of land</a>, storms intensity and sea levels rise (Figure 2b), the living Earth is entering a <a href="https://earth.org/5-ways-climate-change-is-threatening-the-future-of-humanity/">critical stage</a>. Having ignored the existential threat of climate change, extreme nationalism and fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ spill rivers of blood in many parts of the world.
<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0cUFN_2kqdBHZ9oBafMdI1dzep1W4svPwQthpqxkrjVv5I7ZEMDyTKDlWaRDdT8sCdEasoWpZ_0Y8wVZ2eNmoWYafCEmE_ThuD_eISmENmUuX58nO-cY0wlV-4a72zGSkt85cXQrazTvaIbA86EYKg_yCRUqXjn3tFi01SLq2gE6e6Aua8NDs4T-S2Ao/s533/image003.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="533" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0cUFN_2kqdBHZ9oBafMdI1dzep1W4svPwQthpqxkrjVv5I7ZEMDyTKDlWaRDdT8sCdEasoWpZ_0Y8wVZ2eNmoWYafCEmE_ThuD_eISmENmUuX58nO-cY0wlV-4a72zGSkt85cXQrazTvaIbA86EYKg_yCRUqXjn3tFi01SLq2gE6e6Aua8NDs4T-S2Ao/w640-h548/image003.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Figure 2b.</b> Accelerated sea level rise after <a href="http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/GMSL_SG_2011.html">Church and White, 2011</a> and University of Hawaii (<a href="http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/data/?fd">Fast Delivery</a>). Values in millimetres compared to the 1993-2008 average. NOAA. <a href="https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/">University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre</a></i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<br />
While the powers that be ─ <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2021.1947636">politicians, CEOs, top-bureaucrats, economists and their media mouthpieces</a> ─ proceed to propagate dangerous lies, such as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/05/un-climate-conference-dubai-oil-lobbyists/">denial of climate change at the heart of the Dubai COP-28 conference</a>.<br /><br />A principal lie is that, in itself, the application of clean technologies ─ solar, wind, tide, hydrogen, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032122007420">may be sufficient to arrest global warming</a>. Likewise, <a href="https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2023/39/australias-fossil-fuel-conflict-exporting-pollution-while-cleaning-up-at-home/">ignoring the export of fossil fuels</a> in national carbon inventories, despite the <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=global+distribution+of+greenhouse+gas&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart">dissemination of greenhouse gas emissions</a> world-wide.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2021/11/19/5-big-lies-about-climate-change-and-why-researchers-trained-a-machine-to-spot-them/?sh=3293caee49f4">Major climate untruths</a> propagated by governments, fossil fuel corporations and their subservient media include proposed <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">limits on domestic emissions which are meaningless to the arrest of global warming</a> since with continuing mining, export and combustion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases disperse through the atmosphere regardless of where the fossil fuel is mined or burnt.<br /><br />With CO₂ level reaching 418.51 ppm at a rate of ~2.5 ppm/year and methane CH₄ level reaching 1917.1 ppb at a rate of near-12 ppb per year, greenhouse gas rises are exceeding any in recent geological history, representing the most severe atmospheric crisis since the asteroid impact which killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Oblivious to the physical laws on which climate science is based and to the time factor of the impending climate crisis, setting artificial targets such as “1.5°C by 2030” or “2°C by 2050”, the powers-to-be may not be aware of what life on planet Earth is facing.<br /><br />Australia is the world’s third biggest exporter and fifth biggest miner of fossil fuels by CO₂ potential. hydrocarbon exports, following Russia and Saudi Arabia. “The government denies responsibility for emissions created by the vast amounts of coal and gas Australia exports overseas as one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, and has flatly ruled out any discussion on banning new fossil fuel projects” (<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/25/australias-new-oil-and-gas-approvals-show-climate-wars-arent-over">McNeill, 2022)</a>. <br /><br />While ongoing combustion of fossil fuels is raising greenhouse gas concentration at a rate <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-23709-6">unprecedented in the geological record</a>, global heating being a self-amplifying process, the utilization of clean energy: solar, wind, hydropower and thermal power cannot by itself stem global warming, now rising <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/">above 420 ppm CO₂</a>, well above the 180-280 ppm range of the preceding glacial-interglacial cycles. Such a high CO₂ level compared to that which existed in the Miocene before 5.3 million years ago when mean global temperature was about ~18.4°C, rising at a rate to which much of the fauna and flora can hardly adjust.<br /><br />Nowadays as bombs keep falling, heads of governments jet around the world genuflecting to each other, signing arms deals, uttering honey words, while the corporate media discusses their official dinner menus, no solutions are reached for the worsening humanitarian crises nor the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html">future on an uninhabitable Earth</a>.<br /><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 14.95px; margin: 0px 0px 8pt;"><br /></p><div><i>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i><br /><div><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></i><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />
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<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="458" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168669381035161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-90809341538184320312023-12-05T18:36:00.000-08:002023-12-10T04:15:11.889-08:00Will temperatures keep rising fast?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtuFcsmj3prOHj07XiAGq-nQmhaGFyggQSgI6ARq7JnQ4Q0Eotex9mAuKr_X5rEg2pXykSkBnmMx4ILcPHKFO4iH_7Q_auSfK89bRVHrS2q7phe10KIdjXYe9yrZmC9oGXi77qJJJ8O3t8XtDIt-msQ7QHmROCpNJL90MGsTaqJBKtClET0ZIplrxaPsY/s1200/Anomaly-through-Dec-3-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtuFcsmj3prOHj07XiAGq-nQmhaGFyggQSgI6ARq7JnQ4Q0Eotex9mAuKr_X5rEg2pXykSkBnmMx4ILcPHKFO4iH_7Q_auSfK89bRVHrS2q7phe10KIdjXYe9yrZmC9oGXi77qJJJ8O3t8XtDIt-msQ7QHmROCpNJL90MGsTaqJBKtClET0ZIplrxaPsY/w640-h336/Anomaly-through-Dec-3-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ discussed <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168661318045161">at facebook</a> - click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>The above image, created with <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org">Climate Reanalyzer</a> data, shows the temperature anomaly (in °C) compared to the 1979-2000 mean. In blue are the years 1979-2022 and in black and white is the year 2023 through December 3, 2023. A trend is added in pink and white, based on 2023 data. Note that the 1979-2000 mean isn't pre-industrial, the anomaly from pre-industrial is significantly higher.</p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyfQR5Zc5djdskMMVjP-WuZWphGP0PqApHELasrSDzDHnDscJsM5eDhCdjhnQ_IwalYGNQpeoyUb5WVD31djDYobn4-4Lpxspzi30jUtLiup0gc_j9gAHh2oc81JGXt10h1YNRFh2djXsjqiVGqfhhQkGpAN7X7QDrju-wFj48FTvWp9YDPHfeCAKgAc8/s2087/Nov-2023-IRI.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1400" data-original-width="2087" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyfQR5Zc5djdskMMVjP-WuZWphGP0PqApHELasrSDzDHnDscJsM5eDhCdjhnQ_IwalYGNQpeoyUb5WVD31djDYobn4-4Lpxspzi30jUtLiup0gc_j9gAHh2oc81JGXt10h1YNRFh2djXsjqiVGqfhhQkGpAN7X7QDrju-wFj48FTvWp9YDPHfeCAKgAc8/s320/Nov-2023-IRI.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
The trend warns that temperatures could keep rising rapidly over the next few months. A number of things can contribute to such a rapid rise: <br /><br />
<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The chance that the current El Niño will slow down over the next few months is minimal, as illustrated by the <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume">IRI image</a> on the right.<br /><br /></li><li>Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, as illustrated by the <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5173">NASA image</a> below. </li></ul></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc5xUSB9j1HQX7c-wAXrgFVDI-QK8iVGhm9HlDlLGYWl3RPx_viM4R2YBPa7akLutHtkUwlS33uQ9Cy_LPl9L8lHBy8lcl-RS1LQj9qTW_oHSmhkRUprlwb3zZifQ-XluW8p0V4xuW7GedcxYA7lYn8QPwXlPe-h4CXB8s-jgSPCc7bEK4nzt9KYWunZw/s853/planetary-heat-anomaly.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="567" data-original-width="853" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc5xUSB9j1HQX7c-wAXrgFVDI-QK8iVGhm9HlDlLGYWl3RPx_viM4R2YBPa7akLutHtkUwlS33uQ9Cy_LPl9L8lHBy8lcl-RS1LQj9qTW_oHSmhkRUprlwb3zZifQ-XluW8p0V4xuW7GedcxYA7lYn8QPwXlPe-h4CXB8s-jgSPCc7bEK4nzt9KYWunZw/w640-h426/planetary-heat-anomaly.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Antarctic sea ice extent is at record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">NSIDC</a> image below, and the fall in extent is particularly steep in December. Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/paul.beckwith.9">Paul Beckwith</a> in a video in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html">earlier post</a>. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159604016414679">discussed here</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160085259739679">here</a>. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this '<a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10159009753799679">pattern effect</a>' could make a huge difference globally, as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x">this study</a> points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">feedbacks page</a>). </li></ul>
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<ul><li>There is a huge danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, as discussed in many earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/11/arctic-ocean-heatstroke.html">this one</a>.</li><br />
<li>Emissions are high and rising. On December 6, 2023, CO₂ was 420.16 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Today’s greenhouse gas forcing of 4.6 W/m² is relative to mid-Holocene CO₂ of 260 ppm, i.e. the natural Holocene CO₂ level. Equilibrium global warming for today’s amount of greenhouse gases is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Warming in the past 6000 years was slowed down by aerosol cooling. Growing population, agriculture and land clearance produced aerosols and CO₂; wood was the main fuel for cooking and heating. Nonlinear aerosol forcing is largest in a pristine atmosphere. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. (from: <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889">Global warming in the pipeline</a>, by James Hansen et al.)</li></ul>
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<ul>Rises in methane can cause rapid warming. The image below, created with a <a href="https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts">Copernicus forecast</a> for December 6, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels at higher latitudes north at 500 hPa.</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC0oUM-JSWjFyhBQ0tHUEB7RGqxWvQYyAA_53hIwCLjh9e70DUGWwEnGfhK5paR3H2DKMv6mZIpOuplEN7xGg9xdqvEi1mn0rD9EflMXxJrFz9OfM9UQw4ymExkrQ87n88YwGxpa5lJtdeJo0pjSNIJYA5kduZJY02rZTnc4CuCzdffKHrQh8wtCrknh8/s2000/Forecast-for-Dec-6-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="2000" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC0oUM-JSWjFyhBQ0tHUEB7RGqxWvQYyAA_53hIwCLjh9e70DUGWwEnGfhK5paR3H2DKMv6mZIpOuplEN7xGg9xdqvEi1mn0rD9EflMXxJrFz9OfM9UQw4ymExkrQ87n88YwGxpa5lJtdeJo0pjSNIJYA5kduZJY02rZTnc4CuCzdffKHrQh8wtCrknh8/w640-h374/Forecast-for-Dec-6-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<ul><li>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGaHFlLFMjqZy6-072B5aqZOlzKYpRvYHTWnINB051eR3luAdbgHR3L-M7XRvnRVmXLAEvE5MSRYUZiYN5g5KPwyq5Ora8X5GrxUGxzqd5PHghKTg2h2ZhyphenhyphenNXCkpXqaDIoIWWSQ7weZFM/s1600/Carbon-budget.png" style="background-color: white; clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGaHFlLFMjqZy6-072B5aqZOlzKYpRvYHTWnINB051eR3luAdbgHR3L-M7XRvnRVmXLAEvE5MSRYUZiYN5g5KPwyq5Ora8X5GrxUGxzqd5PHghKTg2h2ZhyphenhyphenNXCkpXqaDIoIWWSQ7weZFM/s1600/Carbon-budget.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image from a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/09/methane-levels-threaten-to-skyrocket.html">2014 post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>Meanwhile, as emissions keep rising, politicians refuse to act, preferring to debate the size of the "carbon budget". Sadly, the IPCC lends credibility to the idea that there was a "budget" to be divided among polluters, a "budget" that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. This adds a false sense of accountability to this "budget", as if it was checked and verified by scientists across the world. Instead, there is just a huge carbon debt that has to be removed from the atmosphere and the oceans.<br /><br />
</li><li><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s636/potential-rise.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s16000/potential-rise.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ image from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Extinction page</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic can set in, as warned about in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html">this 2007 post</a>. Instead of crossing a social tipping point that prompts people into action to combat the temperature rise, panic may set in that stops many people from showing up at work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. People may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise. </li></ul><div>As said, the 1979-2000 base used in the image at the top is not <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a>. Anomalies would be much higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. The image on the right uses a 2.29°C 2020 anomaly <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">from 3480 BC</a>.<br /></div></div><br /><div><div>The image on the right shows many elements that could jointly cause a rapid temperature rise of more than 10°C, in the process causing the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">clouds tipping point</a> to get crossed that on its own can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C. <br /><br />Much of this is described at the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">extinction page</a>.<br /><b><br />Conclusion</b><br /><br />The precautionary principle calls for comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation as described in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a>, in line with recognition of the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">climate emergency</a> we're in.<br /><br /><br /><b>Links</b><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world</a><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>• Columbia Climate School, International Research Institute for Climate and Society</div><div><a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume">https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume</a></div><div><br /></div>• NASA - Earth's Radiation Balance<br /><div><a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5173">https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5173</a><br /><br />• National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)</div><div><a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph</a><br /><br />• Global warming in the pipeline, by James Hansen et al. <br /><a href="https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889">https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889</a><br /><br />• Copernicus - Methane forecasts<br /><a href="https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts">https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts</a><br /><br />• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html</a><br /><br />• Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a><br /><br />• Pre-industrial<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a><br /><br />• Transforming Society<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a></div></div>
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<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="663" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168665979800161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-71736538157112008962023-11-17T03:16:00.000-08:002024-02-18T13:40:24.673-08:00Arctic Ocean Heatstroke<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0ALHuzR3K4bWPwLqxRSz31f-HPbhI_y5PUfYKG3fQsRGX1FsPUBlujsuPV1MfIJsSKRzpzUGFoeNRvPD7xivazOYkWA3g5ySFfW-kUaWuOiXgKTBltnvsDmqrh4rA2osBdjzPLArGB3EzVWCood5zYRwqlNQ3VLPGUufO_wEZ-ub5Lf0crtRRfdEZeUo/s923/NH-October-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="923" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0ALHuzR3K4bWPwLqxRSz31f-HPbhI_y5PUfYKG3fQsRGX1FsPUBlujsuPV1MfIJsSKRzpzUGFoeNRvPD7xivazOYkWA3g5ySFfW-kUaWuOiXgKTBltnvsDmqrh4rA2osBdjzPLArGB3EzVWCood5zYRwqlNQ3VLPGUufO_wEZ-ub5Lf0crtRRfdEZeUo/w640-h384/NH-October-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ discussed <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168638857685161">at facebook</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>The above image illustrates how much hotter October 2023 was in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to October in other years. The temperature in October 2023 was more than 2°C above October in 1880-1920, in the Northern Hemisphere, even with 3 years smoothing. Note that 1880-1920 is not <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a>, when using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial, the anomaly would be even higher.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0pyl4d-id_Jy58FCjQKweyt5IyaTVS9fZ-2sVWfB8RP6oV8lrT7f_b7s74fndc_1ztVVsIsdEsovHd56NQ-qhPjiPUyglCmC4tlHx6dANwdNOGTTwT897sON2SNoTF7p9fJ6M92R4jzgDctSVESvvnArh1AInpA8oVbnZrscmTEu1bxP_fh5aesVmFU/s1024/October-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1024" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0pyl4d-id_Jy58FCjQKweyt5IyaTVS9fZ-2sVWfB8RP6oV8lrT7f_b7s74fndc_1ztVVsIsdEsovHd56NQ-qhPjiPUyglCmC4tlHx6dANwdNOGTTwT897sON2SNoTF7p9fJ6M92R4jzgDctSVESvvnArh1AInpA8oVbnZrscmTEu1bxP_fh5aesVmFU/w640-h490/October-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The above image, adapted from <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps">Climate Reanalyzer</a>, and the image below, adapted from <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps">NASA</a>, both use the same 1951-1980 baseline to illustrate the October 2023 temperature anomaly.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2nD5LLK8-v0nfKAmGxLkudpm_mNvj-RsZ_irYgqg0a282cbqqrajjw07pzDY1dXYcqxOygDtHcsCcXd9GZFNkV2TQS97VJ__R_Sgg89SLWzzt2N-HxtmYwPyvGqZjgdLmQLNIWN0rfinSIMv2Btn8ZAhwL7fL5r5-l3kzw-8JrjnpspEB-_rgJ5o_zvs/s756/October-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="756" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2nD5LLK8-v0nfKAmGxLkudpm_mNvj-RsZ_irYgqg0a282cbqqrajjw07pzDY1dXYcqxOygDtHcsCcXd9GZFNkV2TQS97VJ__R_Sgg89SLWzzt2N-HxtmYwPyvGqZjgdLmQLNIWN0rfinSIMv2Btn8ZAhwL7fL5r5-l3kzw-8JrjnpspEB-_rgJ5o_zvs/w640-h412/October-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUoeX6YMSBSgZiB1_0NLfnuKue5tgLlCWoFL4sKWjFjpzHiKJ2Yd3RFnaGybdbWXO89qlXxW80mtjKSp_rHIAeTmwvVU0ZM3rDfbuPWXQKc2iUr96vc1ltaxoXUxkuN6aaDLMHOw8p7vCcLaX2BY2sFVEY6_eKzfZlPxO_KxhEnH6qvOaIYUaMpF31snI/s662/historic-rise-1750-2022.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="478" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUoeX6YMSBSgZiB1_0NLfnuKue5tgLlCWoFL4sKWjFjpzHiKJ2Yd3RFnaGybdbWXO89qlXxW80mtjKSp_rHIAeTmwvVU0ZM3rDfbuPWXQKc2iUr96vc1ltaxoXUxkuN6aaDLMHOw8p7vCcLaX2BY2sFVEY6_eKzfZlPxO_KxhEnH6qvOaIYUaMpF31snI/w289-h400/historic-rise-1750-2022.png" width="289" /></a></div>
Anomalies are very high, especially over the Arctic Ocean, which reflects the enormous amounts of heat that are transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. <div><br /></div>
<div>There are further reasons behind the very high anomalies over the Arctic, one of which is methane, which has risen very fast over the years. <br /><br />The image on the right illustrates methane's historic rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane (CH₄) reached 1923 parts per billion (ppb) in 2022, 264% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 417.9 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, 150% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 335.8 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level. <br />
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<div>This image below shows some very high hourly average methane levels recently recorded at Barrow, Alaska. </div>
<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7OeL22ZCAF-JgosBO0-T54ZiaIusKhf6FzFGJf2KhADKMNp26d4-bQFJ8AJaITNOsr4H4lxDYaQFHmMsiNQHl7rSfX7qIpDYdyb204UYFt0HxNXGQHY0UVBO2ICsFFXfMljRYViSJZNgKyzJWS5cWoE1goh-lUQ4_Ci_00m73vUMI9Wk__141agenao/s1190/Barrow-November-20-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="846" data-original-width="1190" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7OeL22ZCAF-JgosBO0-T54ZiaIusKhf6FzFGJf2KhADKMNp26d4-bQFJ8AJaITNOsr4H4lxDYaQFHmMsiNQHl7rSfX7qIpDYdyb204UYFt0HxNXGQHY0UVBO2ICsFFXfMljRYViSJZNgKyzJWS5cWoE1goh-lUQ4_Ci_00m73vUMI9Wk__141agenao/w640-h454/Barrow-November-20-2023.png" width="640" /></a><br />The image below shows high monthly methane levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhafYL1DED_ghV01-bso8FDzcjesXjFmDQwJJGkFRuAMKlHcErNn6i-mAkcHBE_a0wnntQnVZ0B0cyRFvEGNPGsPQgvq3fsP-Z-AIeO2WPXGPVvlVxQsRHETl9RgkpEtDyBV7g4zFzOvEQSYBKG2LI7QKNltM_zi2cCZWMT6dlekuoV4bxhC28tFV9HOn0/s1178/Hawaii-November-21-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="839" data-original-width="1178" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhafYL1DED_ghV01-bso8FDzcjesXjFmDQwJJGkFRuAMKlHcErNn6i-mAkcHBE_a0wnntQnVZ0B0cyRFvEGNPGsPQgvq3fsP-Z-AIeO2WPXGPVvlVxQsRHETl9RgkpEtDyBV7g4zFzOvEQSYBKG2LI7QKNltM_zi2cCZWMT6dlekuoV4bxhC28tFV9HOn0/w640-h456/Hawaii-November-21-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>
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The image below, created with a Copernicus forecast for November 15, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels over the Arctic at 500 hPa. <div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcQYJ3JTF6xaTescH5a9rvIZjPb8d22EZIsDTVU-rl4RNxMYQVHzesTFr8i5GoDHd_ayYxnBjcgq9NOA1H0thAX9IcEj4fh1yPfKLXTxVrZXfheRNCh1FA2ShMUBr9jesM-WXukzglRzziaVs1aHSv7h2ME9ecgmHljD6zhz7yqePEkLscnpXlMFILejI/s2000/Methane.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="2000" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcQYJ3JTF6xaTescH5a9rvIZjPb8d22EZIsDTVU-rl4RNxMYQVHzesTFr8i5GoDHd_ayYxnBjcgq9NOA1H0thAX9IcEj4fh1yPfKLXTxVrZXfheRNCh1FA2ShMUBr9jesM-WXukzglRzziaVs1aHSv7h2ME9ecgmHljD6zhz7yqePEkLscnpXlMFILejI/w640-h374/Methane.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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</div><div><br /></div><div>The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean, especially north of Alaska, on November 15, 2023 AM at 399.1 mb.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjsNLu_O1SXWPPd3vEa_RaMfY88Qdloqfoq2NuhhN1tx_rRjuTLJqJrtJ10qa9t7FGXePpUix3KVIllp28qohFNldAs74NUIw9KBz4XcOfueOqU9sbnpY5dnWpbrEOsKhMvchDCmsCjfOZ-AsVPYVxtRpSeif2x0cs7MOT1egCsYoJJXM2CZy8ULT2Tu0/s950/November-15-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="950" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjsNLu_O1SXWPPd3vEa_RaMfY88Qdloqfoq2NuhhN1tx_rRjuTLJqJrtJ10qa9t7FGXePpUix3KVIllp28qohFNldAs74NUIw9KBz4XcOfueOqU9sbnpY5dnWpbrEOsKhMvchDCmsCjfOZ-AsVPYVxtRpSeif2x0cs7MOT1egCsYoJJXM2CZy8ULT2Tu0/w640-h514/November-15-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div><br />The image below shows methane levels as high as 2700 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 17, 2023 PM at 293 mb.<br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYezitv61uC5X2aNMwo14O4eavZmP90ej-AXhgeV_647ekMOwqOAG86g3pXIxoDlSgG2_fTpmV36z_069mFFBd2M11vEMLCIPOPSkkDzjPJaoNpvG1jmPEMnpFMLbsn2w0OqRYMK9P_Lt2Lnz5MPKtoew17GlybLOXKEs2ownfMW6o9-JtlT_T_kHBxQ/s935/November-17-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="935" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYezitv61uC5X2aNMwo14O4eavZmP90ej-AXhgeV_647ekMOwqOAG86g3pXIxoDlSgG2_fTpmV36z_069mFFBd2M11vEMLCIPOPSkkDzjPJaoNpvG1jmPEMnpFMLbsn2w0OqRYMK9P_Lt2Lnz5MPKtoew17GlybLOXKEs2ownfMW6o9-JtlT_T_kHBxQ/w640-h512/November-17-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />The image below shows high methane levels over Greenland recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 18, 2023 PM at 399 mb.<br /><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQHkTJNw6NjN13HFKeLOnloFSnGJ9sI_S1uP1cM8akT-NXC3Ym1Oa0RSj5XiBeHG7wjFhscWG7LUTwBroyxzxuttPebY0aUAhQN1LrQgUlLEwKtE3AJQ5pg419NzaOFTmI3FPC-4XjcYZXLR7qcuLHbX9-AVAMOKIEyrXQH4ZxatTcwa_qNNFsMFEDDp0/s937/November-18-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="754" data-original-width="937" height="516" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQHkTJNw6NjN13HFKeLOnloFSnGJ9sI_S1uP1cM8akT-NXC3Ym1Oa0RSj5XiBeHG7wjFhscWG7LUTwBroyxzxuttPebY0aUAhQN1LrQgUlLEwKtE3AJQ5pg419NzaOFTmI3FPC-4XjcYZXLR7qcuLHbX9-AVAMOKIEyrXQH4ZxatTcwa_qNNFsMFEDDp0/w640-h516/November-18-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />The image below shows mean methane levels of 1942 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 19, 2023 PM at 399 mb.<br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rQLoN6ySJ5i7JFqqMZ9ty4ARu8wHenpj9oxhI7nREUiNUYEDuYM9nFvLi352pC_LbJ6jfh6OAcCwPepoXHje1KtmkK0w2rVjv3iFfLHOuaQZO9P7phBaxrJv37CndhYtaIxjxPNy0ii1TLeMACve0-l8ij5FJYpxxGUQ1r2pvwMiqfnE1E5R2YVYN4Q/s936/November-19-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="936" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rQLoN6ySJ5i7JFqqMZ9ty4ARu8wHenpj9oxhI7nREUiNUYEDuYM9nFvLi352pC_LbJ6jfh6OAcCwPepoXHje1KtmkK0w2rVjv3iFfLHOuaQZO9P7phBaxrJv37CndhYtaIxjxPNy0ii1TLeMACve0-l8ij5FJYpxxGUQ1r2pvwMiqfnE1E5R2YVYN4Q/w640-h514/November-19-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The <a href="https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/6904087">Argo Float 6904087</a> compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters. <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyVqvta0ZL5hrBY7DBvitjE56Ggw03H6voS-WJqe3HMj8eUJdO-bmAFYBqCVSh0LpBGAGz293JWdl61u5LKZIYqrjoO_5qP4MFINsystlQlAIdYLkb14qexjqFu3WRJC8WcEncmbS7Tr57725nVdBJugZYB-t_jkPmA8UDF9zdqXTgUVScafLH7Eqlh5c/s2273/Argo-float-6904087.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="937" data-original-width="2273" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyVqvta0ZL5hrBY7DBvitjE56Ggw03H6voS-WJqe3HMj8eUJdO-bmAFYBqCVSh0LpBGAGz293JWdl61u5LKZIYqrjoO_5qP4MFINsystlQlAIdYLkb14qexjqFu3WRJC8WcEncmbS7Tr57725nVdBJugZYB-t_jkPmA8UDF9zdqXTgUVScafLH7Eqlh5c/w640-h264/Argo-float-6904087.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The <a href="https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/6901934">Argo Float 6901934</a> compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcL5nIPiFSn5q4Zf2lH2mVsxlP05CnxUF3gLNLreJmgt_B9weDM42YCd3RNfX7ctoYPVOOsZhMnxNR3npW062CmEagZka6Bg4E4THdE2Seb0ndCH0uXSjP_xTNF7GO3MCcbChFCcXmWhW-H9qPDcU9lYrqFIERd0vGnRfVzx1Qs5Qpf-biskTUftExz1Q/s1804/Argo-float-6901934.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="937" data-original-width="1804" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcL5nIPiFSn5q4Zf2lH2mVsxlP05CnxUF3gLNLreJmgt_B9weDM42YCd3RNfX7ctoYPVOOsZhMnxNR3npW062CmEagZka6Bg4E4THdE2Seb0ndCH0uXSjP_xTNF7GO3MCcbChFCcXmWhW-H9qPDcU9lYrqFIERd0vGnRfVzx1Qs5Qpf-biskTUftExz1Q/w640-h332/Argo-float-6901934.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
Arctic Ocean surface temperatures are strongly influenced by air temperatures and seasons, ranging from more than 10°C to as low as -1.8°C when there is sea ice.<br /><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKxUTrL01-P3iVNMIwNdcqM48Lnqv0xLFi75KayWLsn3QjhUmkWJeCkqoh6R8VRpgYo4DUJwFfYxyadFo1ewPCx5k4ai3kDjQ6gDqvs8mSpLFpysiFEqOAqThn95TTXxuuEdpitp98KQr55SzfJ-0yDaKOShmVyeJCoLwEwE3pvhGGQ0r1wrA07FUCeOo/s390/Bathymetry9.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="295" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKxUTrL01-P3iVNMIwNdcqM48Lnqv0xLFi75KayWLsn3QjhUmkWJeCkqoh6R8VRpgYo4DUJwFfYxyadFo1ewPCx5k4ai3kDjQ6gDqvs8mSpLFpysiFEqOAqThn95TTXxuuEdpitp98KQr55SzfJ-0yDaKOShmVyeJCoLwEwE3pvhGGQ0r1wrA07FUCeOo/s320/Bathymetry9.jpg" width="242" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/dangerous-situation-in-arctic.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>By contrast, the water temperature below the surface can remain stable throughout the year at close to 0°C all the way down to 2000 meters without freezing, due to higher salinity. However, the water temperature can be well above 0°C throughout the year at a depth of a few hundred meters, which is worrying since much of the water is less than 200 m deep where the continental shelves extend into the Arctic Ocean (light blue map on the right) and methane hydrates at the seafloor there could instantly be destabilized by a sudden influx of warm water from the North Atlantic. <br /><div><br />Over the next few months, as sea ice keeps growing in extent, this seals off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere. This makes it harder for heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere and increases the danger that more heat will reach sediments located at the seafloor and cause methane to be released from hydrates as well as methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.</div><div><br /></div><div>The danger is illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps">Climate Reanalyzer</a>, which shows a rise in temperature (2 m) by 2100 compared to 1852-1900 using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAjvpuhJBolxGYrCYWaigGTGDJeWpYHehX5DT3ynlarzsL3nIKX3KtNaz9ZCQQg_cctooUMSyfeabirPqJvcxZjXakhByVwcS3dwmQRUTZL04RmSSbOjkqjgBN2jnXlY8gvC4rcMCtcKv1aEoNnvTzECVDEaSVQ3PcSjj36UmoGgc8P0Jj8nd_KuxoImM/s1024/cmip6-ssp585-2100-1852-1900.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1024" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAjvpuhJBolxGYrCYWaigGTGDJeWpYHehX5DT3ynlarzsL3nIKX3KtNaz9ZCQQg_cctooUMSyfeabirPqJvcxZjXakhByVwcS3dwmQRUTZL04RmSSbOjkqjgBN2jnXlY8gvC4rcMCtcKv1aEoNnvTzECVDEaSVQ3PcSjj36UmoGgc8P0Jj8nd_KuxoImM/w640-h490/cmip6-ssp585-2100-1852-1900.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s636/potential-rise.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s16000/potential-rise.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ image from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Extinction page</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div>Note that none of the bases used in the above images is <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">pre-industrial</a>, neither 1880-1920, nor 1951-1980, nor 1852-1900. Using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial base would result in even higher anomalies. The image on the right shows a 2.29°C 2020 anomaly <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">from 3480 BC</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>Note also that even a small temperature rise (of less than 1°C) can destabilize a vulnerable methane hydrate, which can cause an eruption that in turn can destabilize neighbouring hydrates, resulting in a self-reinforcing feedback loop of methane releases, including methane in the form of free gas from underneath the hydrates. This can drive up temperatures very rapidly. </div><div><br /></div>Seafloor methane is only one out of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C within a few years, in the process causing the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">clouds tipping point</a> to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">extinction page</a>.<br /><br />
<b>Conclusion</b></div>
<br />
<div>
The precautionary principle calls for comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, along the lines of <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a> in combination with a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">declaration of a climate emergency</a>. </div>
<br /><br />
<b>Links</b>
<br /><br />
• Climate Reanalyzer
<br />
<a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps">https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps</a>
<div><br />• NASA Temperature anomaly October 2023</div>
<div><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps</a></div><div><br /></div><div><div>
• WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 19 – 15 November 2023</div>
<div><a href="https://library.wmo.int/records/item/68532-no-19-15-november-2023">https://library.wmo.int/records/item/68532-no-19-15-november-2023</a></div>
</div>
<div><br /></div><div>• Copernicus - Methane forecasts</div><div><a href="https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts">https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts</a></div><div><br /></div>
<div><div>• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States</div><div><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts" style="text-decoration-line: none;">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States</div><div><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />
• NOAA-20 satellite
<br /><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html</a><br />
</div>
<div><br />• NOAA MetOp-B satellite <br /><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html</a></div>
<div><br /></div>• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Extinction</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Pre-industrial</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html</a></div><br />• Transforming Society</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a></div><div><br /><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="773" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168620229355161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-4914506375536875212023-10-26T15:47:00.001-07:002023-10-26T16:04:55.078-07:00A climate of the unthinkable on a burning Earth<div style="text-align: center;"><i>by Andrew Glikson</i></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;"><i>“The climate is an angry beast and we are poking at it with sticks”</i> - <a href="https://quotefancy.com/quote/1665914/Wallace-Smith-Broecker-Climate-is-an-angry-beast-and-we-are-poking-at-it-with-sticks">Wallace Smith Broecker</a></div>
<br />
<div>Having turned a deaf ear to the basic laws of nature, ignoring the essential lessons from climate science, the powers that be have no idea, nor do they appear to care about, the rate and scale of the calamity life on Earth is facing.
<br /><br />
Global civilization having effectively replaced the United Nations with the United States and other super powers, having built a veritable nuclear <a href="https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/">doomsday machine</a>, enhancing the military-industrial complex and atmosphere-poisoning fossil fuel corporations, preoccupied with arming proxy states, allowing regional blood baths to enhance the arms trade, the powers that be are allowing the demise of human civilization as well a myriad of intelligent and beautiful animal and bird species.
<br /><br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4ZQlvIZmlnR5EuhDAvetfaHJzDe1Fe3ltwCn6Ap8LIFxtklgX0QqCcFxNLiPaiLh2BM4h-N7P6jb00Pol3cCsdioBgGpcc_D4h9Pw4C9jSkWRhJ3SQd6b08YBfnEYKDmWjLMsbDTx8V5cgDodHIkkXVRPZNJTUgTJulZVTO9ME0XkaB5R-Gi5Tp2qws/s795/September-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="795" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4ZQlvIZmlnR5EuhDAvetfaHJzDe1Fe3ltwCn6Ap8LIFxtklgX0QqCcFxNLiPaiLh2BM4h-N7P6jb00Pol3cCsdioBgGpcc_D4h9Pw4C9jSkWRhJ3SQd6b08YBfnEYKDmWjLMsbDTx8V5cgDodHIkkXVRPZNJTUgTJulZVTO9ME0XkaB5R-Gi5Tp2qws/w640-h244/September-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24 <br />El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (El Nino Peak <br />Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated. Credit: <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/ElNinoFizzles.13October2023.pdf">James Hansen</a> et al. (Oct. 2023)</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div><br /></div>Nowadays major untruths are propagated by a media subservient to the powers that be.<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>With the CO₂ level reaching <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/">418.51 ppm</a> at a rate of ~2.5 ppm/year and methane CH₄ level reaching <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/">1917.1 ppb</a> at a rate of near-12 ppb per year, greenhouse gas rises are exceeding any in recent geological history, representing the most severe atmospheric crisis since the asteroid impact which killed the dinosaurs <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/K-T-extinction">66 million years ago</a>. Oblivious to the physical laws on which climate science is based and to the time factor of the impending climate crisis, setting artificial targets such as “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01702-w">1.5°C by 2030</a>” or “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming/">2°C by 2050</a>”, the powers that be may not be aware of what life on planet Earth is facing.</li><li>As if proposed limits on domestic pollution are meaningful to the arrest of global warming despite continuing mining, export and combustion of fossil fuels, <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/climate-change/how-does-the-greenhouse-effect-work/">greenhouse gases disperse through the atmosphere regardless of where the fossil fuel is burnt</a>. As conveys by <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/25/australias-new-oil-and-gas-approvals-show-climate-wars-arent-over">McNeill</a>: <i>“The government denies responsibility for emissions created by the vast amounts of coal and gas Australia exports overseas as one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, and has flatly ruled out any discussion on banning new fossil fuel projects”.</i></li><li>While ongoing combustion of fossil fuels is raising greenhouse gas concentration at a <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-54734-9">rate unprecedented in the geological record</a>, current <a href="https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/how-feedback-loops-are-making-climate-crisis-worse">global heating being a self-amplifying process</a>, the utilization of clean energy: solar, wind, hydropower and thermal power cannot by itself stem global warming, now rising above 420 ppm CO₂, well above the 180-280 ppm range of the preceding glacial-interglacial cycles. Such a high CO₂ level, compared to that which existed in the Miocene before 5.3 million years ago when mean global temperature was about ~4°C, has risen within the last century at a rate to which fauna and flora can hardly adjust.</li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/s1200/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/w640-h294/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i><b>[ </b>Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">EIA</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Cover-up, censorship and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-journal-of-law-and-medicine/article/abs/suppression-of-environmental-science/E25B2D7D094BB94853E206C179AAD734">suppression of environmental and climate science</a> in governments, industry and universities occur in countries professing freedom of information policies. One of the latest revelations is the story of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-24/odyssey-climate-scientists-suppress-truth-or-risk-funds-careers/102968970">Dana Bergstrom</a>. <br /><br />Nowadays, as bombs keep falling, children are dying, heads of governments jet around the world genuflecting to each other, signing arms deals, uttering honey words, while the corporate media discusses their official dinner menus, they reach no solutions for the worsening humanitarian crises, nor for <a href="https://kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frym.2019.00037">the future of life on Earth</a>.</div><div><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><br /><i>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i><br /><div><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></i><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a></div></div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168540074280161&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="429" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-24668956048704740872023-10-13T23:38:00.057-07:002023-11-06T16:18:42.673-08:00Temperature rise - September 2023 and beyond<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEeQhXQWsSqGpY7M-raQMth8O7rqRUSGzJfkQs7y_dZiGm5ro9MufTfl3qmkcKnjcad-Z96oj9q7NbSvXNOEarLCExjVtza20Fykn3iYs5PHOma8B6dzbJtq5wNn8Df08Nforef9MQ8ymkJ_zQmE9iOYN-cXxSmXIOZPIOjsu1Fg8eMcMrZY1CzPW2iYs/s764/Global-map-2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="764" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEeQhXQWsSqGpY7M-raQMth8O7rqRUSGzJfkQs7y_dZiGm5ro9MufTfl3qmkcKnjcad-Z96oj9q7NbSvXNOEarLCExjVtza20Fykn3iYs5PHOma8B6dzbJtq5wNn8Df08Nforef9MQ8ymkJ_zQmE9iOYN-cXxSmXIOZPIOjsu1Fg8eMcMrZY1CzPW2iYs/w640-h408/Global-map-2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>The above image, adapted from <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps">NASA</a> and the image below, adapted from <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps">Climate Reanalyzer</a> and using the same baseline, illustrate the September 2023 temperature anomaly. <br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhluhBlcuHUb2nlJn-2rhvxdUtNqr7NcQJOV2t1toXNNXO21Det4HCy5kptkE-6qrG5ns_ztk8CtJMQzrmaRbaYS3nEI0ujPuAATByqRCw21sef9XJf1seoj-2smZpVagXsjyh5-i65R29X8YUE1hXkBRpLdehe9-_W2gO15aRkEEIodxGdWzXm0g4vA4/s1045/anomaly-vs-1951-1980.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1045" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhluhBlcuHUb2nlJn-2rhvxdUtNqr7NcQJOV2t1toXNNXO21Det4HCy5kptkE-6qrG5ns_ztk8CtJMQzrmaRbaYS3nEI0ujPuAATByqRCw21sef9XJf1seoj-2smZpVagXsjyh5-i65R29X8YUE1hXkBRpLdehe9-_W2gO15aRkEEIodxGdWzXm0g4vA4/w640-h478/anomaly-vs-1951-1980.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />September 2023 was the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record. What contributed to this?</div><div><br /></div><div><b>El Niño</b><br /> <div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzLQYJ4WFpodd8y3oD4Ostp_WWeGD1u54jfowVpDR43gw7eFAjwD7QcKPvWgvjgaV9jh9vABEAY2VlDIeUVZRZxGUyq8oZr8_ZlT9wEIiD34jRcYH_fZQFiLcLc4qdKB0_O4BfiTk5gCH5C4ALfBjlCAUdWTGbHzMQhOwHyh_irPQEfgGEWK2P2m0o/s1200/El-Nino.jpg" style="background-color: white; color: #cc4411; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzLQYJ4WFpodd8y3oD4Ostp_WWeGD1u54jfowVpDR43gw7eFAjwD7QcKPvWgvjgaV9jh9vABEAY2VlDIeUVZRZxGUyq8oZr8_ZlT9wEIiD34jRcYH_fZQFiLcLc4qdKB0_O4BfiTk5gCH5C4ALfBjlCAUdWTGbHzMQhOwHyh_irPQEfgGEWK2P2m0o/w640-h336/El-Nino.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
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The temperature rose about 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, and this occurred at a time when we were not even in an El Niño yet, as illustrated by the above image, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html">earlier post</a>. Below is an updated image, from January 1950 to September 2023, adapted from <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-4">NOAA</a> </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK-6s6YVUo8gD-XxMDiTQnriq85m9DSBRbpijNMo-9ilAAa1Lb_a7eH1bZF6Y3HJ7ARVFrZpKIeS7hUvzRLPuCZrggYtk_Hnq2wYVJsKm_vtvB4e9mUgm4Vmbftph8jRsHzWJjwoWHJn75cQJjYIx5ZJCZNEIoXvJgDKRjCRuLL0Qsu9uuWy2MBWX2yaQ/s1769/enso-bars.195001.202302.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="1769" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK-6s6YVUo8gD-XxMDiTQnriq85m9DSBRbpijNMo-9ilAAa1Lb_a7eH1bZF6Y3HJ7ARVFrZpKIeS7hUvzRLPuCZrggYtk_Hnq2wYVJsKm_vtvB4e9mUgm4Vmbftph8jRsHzWJjwoWHJn75cQJjYIx5ZJCZNEIoXvJgDKRjCRuLL0Qsu9uuWy2MBWX2yaQ/w640-h200/enso-bars.195001.202302.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i> </td></tr></tbody></table>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw6xGWPjVIpZSffQyyJ_btgLxtoFDxmsmNNei9DXciAW9ALrb5L-3pd3fg6TbtjUfU70eqHmHKLOJ46FAiN_T53cDF3eCR-fr2OS5Sgibq0ubE7ylavwje1g7mQM0SQ2B24aiLwWBWRtFOubCSLkthWKf5992RwoBxyprVVSfpg7JL7Fb5CGqo_h3sI8k/s1074/IRI-October-2023.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1074" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw6xGWPjVIpZSffQyyJ_btgLxtoFDxmsmNNei9DXciAW9ALrb5L-3pd3fg6TbtjUfU70eqHmHKLOJ46FAiN_T53cDF3eCR-fr2OS5Sgibq0ubE7ylavwje1g7mQM0SQ2B24aiLwWBWRtFOubCSLkthWKf5992RwoBxyprVVSfpg7JL7Fb5CGqo_h3sI8k/s320/IRI-October-2023.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">from IRI</a>.
<br /><br /><b>Further contributors</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />There are further reasons why the temperature can be expected to keep rising beyond September 2023. </div>
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<div>The number of sunspots has been higher than predicted and looks set to keep rising above predicted levels until July 2025, as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html">discussed here</a>. </div>
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<div>The eruption of the submarine volcano near Tonga in January 2022 caused a lot of water vapor to reach high up into the atmosphere and this may still contribute to the temperature rise, as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160142181664679">discussed here</a>.</div>
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Aerosols that have a cooling effect, such as dust and sulfates (SO₄), are also important. As fossil fuel is burned, sulfates are co-emitted. Since they pollute the air, measures have been taken and are being taken to reduce them, e.g. in shipping, and this has pushed up the temperature rise. Meanwhile, cooling aerosols such as sulfates are still high. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="http://nullschool.net">nullschool.net</a>, SO₄ was as high as 8.621 τ at the green circle on October 6, 2023, at 07:00 UTC. In future, SO₄ could fall dramatically, e.g. in case of a sudden economic collapse, reducing the aerosol masking effect rapidly and abruptly causing a substantial rise in temperature.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc5GBvXE4nWvhzFdyx83Ud2_VWgyW-6W1DSoE4bDdV52s3stGoGxjwLlMTSntfba30AhyBlXryNNr5X2QUi70GdiAGQgkIZV54jqCHZPIFkY0VndOkDkZ4jQrZcfM09TOR5esxSuN7lqJOyTraELAuR7g965rxTk7RpQpcTFohBYOkokTq6qwq3LuOUKI/s1708/October-6-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1708" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc5GBvXE4nWvhzFdyx83Ud2_VWgyW-6W1DSoE4bDdV52s3stGoGxjwLlMTSntfba30AhyBlXryNNr5X2QUi70GdiAGQgkIZV54jqCHZPIFkY0VndOkDkZ4jQrZcfM09TOR5esxSuN7lqJOyTraELAuR7g965rxTk7RpQpcTFohBYOkokTq6qwq3LuOUKI/w640-h344/October-6-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">After little change in the Antarctic sea ice extent graph for decades, extent loss was dramatic in 2022 and even more dramatic in 2023, as less and less sunlight was getting reflected back into space and instead was getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">NSIDC</a>. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLG3peXpv9MVJd0VX5IAW5PHF5166LtOzHB9UbCulqJQiOPjHAIqHWVIGsaZfon7cWCmuS0jeeRNBNq1xAEOQxAl7dbanbW4FND2PzfB8EeNfXupM86gpiy2hSk8HvguNIQKmmqpEUbbO8h_-By6DofBIKC_0cLeY7WvDQvW_uMdaEktFif362Aulgx0o/s936/October-11-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="936" height="582" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLG3peXpv9MVJd0VX5IAW5PHF5166LtOzHB9UbCulqJQiOPjHAIqHWVIGsaZfon7cWCmuS0jeeRNBNq1xAEOQxAl7dbanbW4FND2PzfB8EeNfXupM86gpiy2hSk8HvguNIQKmmqpEUbbO8h_-By6DofBIKC_0cLeY7WvDQvW_uMdaEktFif362Aulgx0o/w640-h582/October-11-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Sea ice retreat comes with loss of albedo, i.e. loss of the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, resulting in more heat getting absorbed in the Southern Ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Clouds constitute another self-reinforcing feedback loop; a warmer Southern Ocean comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159604016414679">discussed here</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160085259739679">here</a>. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this '<a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10159009753799679">pattern effect</a>' could make a huge difference globally, as a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x">recent study</a> points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">feedbacks page</a>). </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtEeyM4RzAAnvg9lyI78czR-gfBDa8OEZaRsKnmkYwjhfBJVZ7ENCrUG9BrMkZr80bg3JfC_Ujzbts3y4IEbtaG2vJXmqCIXzsGesJ7OKJSUQpOTk1D5pDQaIxHh5V9LAkLtelIfQJX7gThX3aYQ1DQMhjVfOafAJ0a97VJG6ayzA1zYXQHOdz8d60rnY/s1800/nsidc_sie_global_anomalies-4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1800" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtEeyM4RzAAnvg9lyI78czR-gfBDa8OEZaRsKnmkYwjhfBJVZ7ENCrUG9BrMkZr80bg3JfC_Ujzbts3y4IEbtaG2vJXmqCIXzsGesJ7OKJSUQpOTk1D5pDQaIxHh5V9LAkLtelIfQJX7gThX3aYQ1DQMhjVfOafAJ0a97VJG6ayzA1zYXQHOdz8d60rnY/w640-h426/nsidc_sie_global_anomalies-4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />The above image was created by <a href="https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc">Zach Labe</a> with NSIDC data (Arctic + Antarctic) for each year from 1979 to 2023 (satellite-era; NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS). The image illustrates that global sea ice extent recently reached the largest anomaly in the satellite record. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a climatological baseline of 1981-2010. 2016 is shown with a yellow line. 2023 is shown using a red line (updated 10/16/2023). </div>
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<div>In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ">video</a> below, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/paul.beckwith.9">Paul Beckwith</a> discusses the importance of loss of sea ice at around -60° (South).</div>
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<div><br /></div>As said, there are many factors behind the temperature increase around latitude -60° (South). As Paul mentions, this latitude receives a lot of sunlight around the year. Therefore, it is not surprising that, as oceans continue to heat up, there is huge loss of sea ice at this latitude, as well as loss of lower clouds, while open oceans are additionally less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The image below, adapted from <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means">NASA</a>, shows a white band around -60° (South), indicating that the Southern Ocean has long been colder there than elsewhere, but has recently started to catch up with the global temperature rise.</div><div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd-LNYu330vrft3D1opN6qiGpImIT50I1byTe6R_3fXTqROx5VDccpLKxFAnrDpa1rj3Cx7HAZKaRd8MGfEnDyQfQAi7YvCwp86UFgbBud4FsuRRfaZewfpKUNiXqMbt4XhjjYTZ1mBBdy3xZTdINw7Xj219LqHZN6gCeZ9K25Fr26wZvuzWnR8gE1gXQ/s817/October-21-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="817" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd-LNYu330vrft3D1opN6qiGpImIT50I1byTe6R_3fXTqROx5VDccpLKxFAnrDpa1rj3Cx7HAZKaRd8MGfEnDyQfQAi7YvCwp86UFgbBud4FsuRRfaZewfpKUNiXqMbt4XhjjYTZ1mBBdy3xZTdINw7Xj219LqHZN6gCeZ9K25Fr26wZvuzWnR8gE1gXQ/w640-h344/October-21-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a><br /></div>
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<div><div>The above image also illustrates that anomalies are highest in the Arctic, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, with the air flow slowing down accordingly. </div>
<div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM9JnYTeB9H2Lq2epBCNwGxmnqnRp3brbZJTqoc71zUjoK1UBdfgs_pRAcTWpE173xGyyWiFqlvXiom2qS9-VjTmh6yOpyzuqrVCtEsL_ffmJT-1ILA4XgDqheLHyxINFOuxg_PrmuBxrmf8AmjOJuoYOW50NrOGr8HtPJmABlC6JvWC-9KIsnpj-GkRs/s919/Canada-fires.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="919" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM9JnYTeB9H2Lq2epBCNwGxmnqnRp3brbZJTqoc71zUjoK1UBdfgs_pRAcTWpE173xGyyWiFqlvXiom2qS9-VjTmh6yOpyzuqrVCtEsL_ffmJT-1ILA4XgDqheLHyxINFOuxg_PrmuBxrmf8AmjOJuoYOW50NrOGr8HtPJmABlC6JvWC-9KIsnpj-GkRs/s320/Canada-fires.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image adapted from <a href="https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes">Copernicus</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>This in turn changes the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html">Jet Stream</a> and the Polar Vortex, resulting in blocking patterns that can, in combination with rising temperatures, strongly increase the frequency, intensity, duration and area coverage of extreme weather events such as storms and <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">lightning</a>, heatwaves and forest fires. <div><br /></div><div>Forest fires in Canada have been releasing massive amounts of emissions that push up the temperature, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, warming aerosols such as black carbon & brown carbon and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) and carbon monoxide that reduce the availability of hydroxyl, resulting in more methane and ozone in the atmosphere. </div><div><div><div><div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2wd41r7eXqARLIqVPPwEsS2xrG5Zk7sLJC0DGxAd2Ja13JE3lHnTGEA10OkJZPRvAQq9dj6oMpdaI5v4gma_OdiqTeIgMHTLf5DzNJLzDcJzLGXf_gnUbSUIBA9znBM-R3JkotcqsP847utgr5RUdrUO8uEQh38LiWIlqA_3ewvLfdXAJ0AO5tZBl0M0/s942/September-13-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #992211; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="942" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2wd41r7eXqARLIqVPPwEsS2xrG5Zk7sLJC0DGxAd2Ja13JE3lHnTGEA10OkJZPRvAQq9dj6oMpdaI5v4gma_OdiqTeIgMHTLf5DzNJLzDcJzLGXf_gnUbSUIBA9znBM-R3JkotcqsP847utgr5RUdrUO8uEQh38LiWIlqA_3ewvLfdXAJ0AO5tZBl0M0/w320-h317/September-13-2023.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ NH sea surface temperature anomaly ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC) can result in more ocean heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-reached.html">earlier post</a>.<br /><br />As temperatures rise, increased meltwater runoff from Greenland and more icebergs moving south, in combination with stronger ocean stratification and stronger storms over the North Atlantic, can also cause a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">freshwater lid</a> to form at the surface of North Atlantic that can at times enable a lot of hot water to get pushed abruptly underneath this lid toward the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean. </div><div><br /></div><div>Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">NOAA</a>.</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZbMyUg5fP7AoxDT4JaG4lDipXAIZ9jOjBv7kyyeDAWslyvWLxsCYkp0jklJlYbpPU1H-QlRomAKbtoEE1PYYJ97IeOi6SZHTClv3mDv7j3fBqaycXhug6uOohnhSZ2BEKqwPw2HJN_ptWmfGLXMCBpwtMrVKvo-X670MaMd3mkWskVZlEuFzSEU6u7cY/s1200/October-13-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1200" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZbMyUg5fP7AoxDT4JaG4lDipXAIZ9jOjBv7kyyeDAWslyvWLxsCYkp0jklJlYbpPU1H-QlRomAKbtoEE1PYYJ97IeOi6SZHTClv3mDv7j3fBqaycXhug6uOohnhSZ2BEKqwPw2HJN_ptWmfGLXMCBpwtMrVKvo-X670MaMd3mkWskVZlEuFzSEU6u7cY/w640-h456/October-13-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>The next few months will be critical as Arctic sea ice is sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, trapping heat underneath the ice and making it harder for ocean heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere above the Arctic. Furthermore, sea ice is very thin, reducing the latent heat buffer that could otherwise have consumed ocean heat. <br /><br />The next danger is that the thin Arctic sea ice will rapidly retreat early next year as a warming Arctic Ocean will transfer more heat to the atmosphere over the Arctic, resulting in more rain and more clouds in the atmosphere over the Arctic, speeding up sea ice loss and further pushing up the temperature rise over the Arctic, as discussed at the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">feedbacks page</a>, which also discusses how less Arctic sea ice can push up temperatures through the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">emissivity feedback</a>. As temperatures rise over the Arctic, permafrost on land also threatens to thaw faster, threatening to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. </div>
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<div>Meanwhile, emissions of greenhouse gases keep rising, further pushing up the temperature, as illustrated by the image below, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/a-climate-of-insanity.html">earlier post</a>.</div><div> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/s1200/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/w640-h294/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i><b>[ </b>Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">EIA</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div>In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oWe84cT5g">video below</a>, Guy McPherson describes how temperature rise, loss of habitat and meltdown of nuclear power facilities each could result in rapid extinction of humans and many other species.</div><br />
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<br />There are numerous further feedbacks that can accelerate the temperature rise and tipping points that can get crossed and cause even more abrupt rise of the temperature. One of these is the clouds tipping point that in itself can cause a temperature rise of 8°C, as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">discussed here</a>. <br /><br />Further feedbacks are also discussed at the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">Extinction page</a>. One further feedback is water vapor. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, at a rate of <a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-3-2.html">7% for each Degree Celsius </a>the temperature rises. As temperatures keep rising, ever more water vapor will be sucked up by the atmosphere. This will also cause more droughts, reducing the ability of land to sustain vegetation and provide soil cooling through shading and through evaporation and formation of lower clouds, as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html">discussed here</a>. More water vapor in the atmosphere will also speed up the temperature rise because water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. <br /><br />The fact that such tipping points and feedbacks occur as greenhouse gas levels reach certain levels and as the temperature rise makes it critical to assess how fast greenhouse gas levels could rise and by how much the temperature has already risen. <div><br /></div><div><b>NASA data up through September 2023</b></div><br />The image below, adapted from NASA, shows that the September 2023 NASA Land+Ocean temperature was 1.78°C higher than it was in September 1923. The anomaly is 1.74°C when compared to a base centered around the year 1900 (1885-1915). The 1.74°C anomaly can be adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, air temperature and higher polar anomalies (as shown in the box on the bottom right of the image), adding up to a potential anomaly of 2.73°C. <br /><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-0XjXlqMb6QlRKqpOlfpzVCVLepG20Oh-8YGny25bCHySH2kjM0JsoFxYaSwbIWNUPvTjWuByRY3hy6NEkqmBgl0-G5yGHLJuZvVmMGqSkRjBlfcV2AcQORpIFmL4Q0nRkRshf_IweU3yh2wtk8oaLSc8jDdF4i0YU6OuDW__LS6duFUUMZX6UeBEFG0/s897/September-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="897" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-0XjXlqMb6QlRKqpOlfpzVCVLepG20Oh-8YGny25bCHySH2kjM0JsoFxYaSwbIWNUPvTjWuByRY3hy6NEkqmBgl0-G5yGHLJuZvVmMGqSkRjBlfcV2AcQORpIFmL4Q0nRkRshf_IweU3yh2wtk8oaLSc8jDdF4i0YU6OuDW__LS6duFUUMZX6UeBEFG0/w640-h388/September-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>Indeed, earlier analysis such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">discussed here</a>, points out that the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. <br /><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1DPiUr5dbpQoWzVegoQdcl5nQjSLHvENuDYztlmNPYP198w8dtA8NpQguLBpoMxNYVO2iHBwqqKalVOYCmwJSUVDfJxBjEfiyVZvz-U-TzZOfrHW_vZoGOMrkPE2b_rh1ikttaK6dAI1N3durapDeehpzApCW26AiWuGykWUbz0ol-5quW4drkzh-0e4/s1200/Trends-September-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="1200" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1DPiUr5dbpQoWzVegoQdcl5nQjSLHvENuDYztlmNPYP198w8dtA8NpQguLBpoMxNYVO2iHBwqqKalVOYCmwJSUVDfJxBjEfiyVZvz-U-TzZOfrHW_vZoGOMrkPE2b_rh1ikttaK6dAI1N3durapDeehpzApCW26AiWuGykWUbz0ol-5quW4drkzh-0e4/w640-h258/Trends-September-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Sep.2023 data. </i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan.2010-Sep.2023 data.</i></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div>The above image is created with <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">NASA</a> Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added. </div><div><br /></div><div>Alarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">this one</a>, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).</div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/s1200/August-2023-SST.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1200" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/w640-h254/August-2023-SST.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ image from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/september-2023-highest-anomaly-on-record.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; float: right; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s636/potential-rise.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s16000/potential-rise.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ image from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Extinction page</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The above image illustrates the latent heat tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average (1901-1930 on the above image) - to get crossed and the seafloor methane tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1.35°C - to get reached, as discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html">this one</a>, .</div><div><br />A <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html">Blue Ocean Event</a> could occur as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, and the ocean temperature keeps rising, as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic, as ever more heat keeps reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2023.html">this one</a>.<br /><br />Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">clouds tipping point</a> to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">extinction page</a>.<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Conclusion</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. </div><div><br /></div><div>To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a> in combination with a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">declaration of a climate emergency</a>.<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Links</b></div><div><br /></div><div>• NASA - global maps</div><div><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NOAA - ENSO and Temperature bars</div><div><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-4">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-4</a></div><div><br /></div>• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School <br /><a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table</a><div><br /></div><div>• Nullschool.net</div><div><a href="https://earth.nullschool.net">https://earth.nullschool.net</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NSIDC - sea ice graph</div><div><a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph">https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Zach Labe - Global sea ice - extent, concentration, etc.</div><div><a href="https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc">https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc</a></div><div><br /></div>• NASA - zonal means</div><div><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means</a><br /><br />• Copernicus - Northern Hemisphere wildfires: A summer of extremes<br /><a href="https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes">https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />• Paul Beckwith - Accelerated Global Warming from Antarctic Sea Ice Collapse: Albedo, Latitude, Snow Cover on Ice…<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ</a><br /><br /></div><div>• Guy McPherson - College of Complexes Presentation (with Improved Audio) </div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oWe84cT5g">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oWe84cT5g</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NASA custom plots<br /><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html</a><br /><br />• Transforming Society</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><div><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /><br /></div></div></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="787" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168495743135161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-57518551299522461712023-09-24T05:38:00.046-07:002023-09-30T17:06:38.191-07:00September 2023, highest anomaly on record?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxI_3GlJmn_6jaXu0K5-vZTlyJC-E8TDArONnv7tTEp1cYSi5N2cVPj9MEOvDcLlIsWxPbRjwDCeLu7KHNtwnbUXfxWtmuDRhHf83JqPTZBqZX8QTgtBxr_zU0Z1QpPm-2uFJ1Sbk-TQA7dkRlgr6VibeHlWnz2SmsrcEeYblMD8M5Rsa1bziuiEUrC-I/s1198/September-22-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1198" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxI_3GlJmn_6jaXu0K5-vZTlyJC-E8TDArONnv7tTEp1cYSi5N2cVPj9MEOvDcLlIsWxPbRjwDCeLu7KHNtwnbUXfxWtmuDRhHf83JqPTZBqZX8QTgtBxr_zU0Z1QpPm-2uFJ1Sbk-TQA7dkRlgr6VibeHlWnz2SmsrcEeYblMD8M5Rsa1bziuiEUrC-I/w640-h384/September-22-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div><br /></div><div>The above image shows the temperature in 2023 as a bold black line, up to September 22, 2023, with the temperature reaching an anomaly of 1.12°C above the 1979-2000 mean for that day.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib1lIvlqGV7g6_qeqZC-eUD2KmacCeHO7d53JeNN9UFMld-JXg23pP4ej_VsO04LMU2ZbQKteBZMz4yG2uvxVtB1HS9feVB3mDuJhqGL0nLj9tCzDbQ1RGeF8Bi3OMkICzCpRJONs7J6hcfqKsa0ALTJpXxEIQYUMIwzFAwSsXiFvvRd-zlA92BQKZQUM/s1200/Will-temperatures-keep-rising.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib1lIvlqGV7g6_qeqZC-eUD2KmacCeHO7d53JeNN9UFMld-JXg23pP4ej_VsO04LMU2ZbQKteBZMz4yG2uvxVtB1HS9feVB3mDuJhqGL0nLj9tCzDbQ1RGeF8Bi3OMkICzCpRJONs7J6hcfqKsa0ALTJpXxEIQYUMIwzFAwSsXiFvvRd-zlA92BQKZQUM/w640-h336/Will-temperatures-keep-rising.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The above image shows the temperature anomaly from the 1979-2000 mean. In blue are the years 1979-2022 and in black is the year 2023 up to September 25, 2023. A trend is added in pink based on 2023 data. </div><div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCXkuxLHPj_tcz514SNBe2Z3ZmsX1zQJul1R0VRIPPatDxJDeFZRTc8HrnWQ3ZbIsK8j_CNSTn_tIhFeHa1x6gAAlP9k9vrv-uZvQoxjn-Zy3O-qlN7bmCK6Uk_SDdA2s9WNsa_FiEmNQAkumYt7QxFzQ9jd4P9IErBlL_g3s-9Y7UrlrGT73yZI3aucY/s1074/IRI-September-2023.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1074" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCXkuxLHPj_tcz514SNBe2Z3ZmsX1zQJul1R0VRIPPatDxJDeFZRTc8HrnWQ3ZbIsK8j_CNSTn_tIhFeHa1x6gAAlP9k9vrv-uZvQoxjn-Zy3O-qlN7bmCK6Uk_SDdA2s9WNsa_FiEmNQAkumYt7QxFzQ9jd4P9IErBlL_g3s-9Y7UrlrGT73yZI3aucY/s320/IRI-September-2023.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>Note that 1979-2000 isn't pre-industrial, the anomaly from pre-industrial is significantly higher. <div><br /></div>It looks like September 2023 will be the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record and the year 2023 will be the hottest year on record. <div><br /></div><div>The question is whether temperatures will keep rising. The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted <a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">from IRI</a>, and there is more to be taken into account. </div><div><br /></div><div>
<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9d1l9MDFJ5SZbWzsU83kbWBQJZVWlAGj3kHcGIHavZilb4aag5cL5fpVuxq5MYreCM-77gMlt2Z868S9Qe5Eym9dWiIqccl4RmiCikaJUn7R84-u_njObnNlWTcnT0n1uLjVywWIV31EVnRk4jrootL5z_rWN-FIbQLnv8n17SE1wCmqIsE5_Gl8EdZk/s913/peak-rate-of-change-is-the-killer.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="572" data-original-width="913" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9d1l9MDFJ5SZbWzsU83kbWBQJZVWlAGj3kHcGIHavZilb4aag5cL5fpVuxq5MYreCM-77gMlt2Z868S9Qe5Eym9dWiIqccl4RmiCikaJUn7R84-u_njObnNlWTcnT0n1uLjVywWIV31EVnRk4jrootL5z_rWN-FIbQLnv8n17SE1wCmqIsE5_Gl8EdZk/w640-h400/peak-rate-of-change-is-the-killer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>Until now, February 2016 has been the hottest month on record. The above image, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html">earlier post</a>, shows that February 2016 was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896 on land, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial either and that sustained anomalies higher than 3°C are likely to drive humans into extinction. The image adds a poignant note: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>The situation raises questions. How much has the temperature risen? Will the temperature keep rising? What can be done about it? How can these questions best be answered?</div>
<div><br /></div>
<div><b>The Paris Agreement mandate</b></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy1kCC1s7pHCB7dx-RK16T2T1Ms-JOTdSFYOXjCRJyDPzGrk_Zkdd6QJpns-7oHgA3l0iD-uvgJui-vIXYj8bimG3ZdJ7mhlVy_8nsXNun2o_MsZbyxaGk9qb0qwfsrcfiy1YirXUy8LheMjneFThPBOGlQzjkPAD93dS_Bj9IlgF0VHLvOO7jVgB350g/s1200/Paris-Agreement-mandate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy1kCC1s7pHCB7dx-RK16T2T1Ms-JOTdSFYOXjCRJyDPzGrk_Zkdd6QJpns-7oHgA3l0iD-uvgJui-vIXYj8bimG3ZdJ7mhlVy_8nsXNun2o_MsZbyxaGk9qb0qwfsrcfiy1YirXUy8LheMjneFThPBOGlQzjkPAD93dS_Bj9IlgF0VHLvOO7jVgB350g/w640-h336/Paris-Agreement-mandate.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div><br /></div>
<div>During the UN Climate Change Conference scheduled to be held from November 30 to December 12, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the first <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160992468379679">Global Stocktake</a> of the implementation of the Paris Agreement will be concluded.</div>
<p>The 2015 Paris Agreement mandate: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by undertaking rapid reductions in emissions in accordance with best available science. </p>
<p>Many assume that the temperature rise will only threaten to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the second half of this century and that by that time action will have stopped the temperature from rising, with the idea that an increase in carbon sequestration could make up for remaining emissions and avoid dangerous climate change. <br /><br />The question is whether such assumptions and decisions are indeed based on best available science, as opposed to political whim. Indeed, politicians are vulnerable to collusion with lobbyists feeding suggestions that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters to enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Local People's Courts can best rule on such questions, after taking a closer look at points such as the following: </p>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Rise from pre-industrial</b> - While many politicians keep pushing the idea that 1.5°C above pre-industrial hasn't been crossed yet, we may already have crossed 2°C above pre-industrial, as discussed in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html">this analysis</a>.<br /><br /></li><li><b>Policy choices</b> - emission reductions are best achieved early, rather than late. Yet, many politicians keep supporting fuel (fossil fuel and biofuels) and envisage burning of fuel to continue well beyond 2050 (combined with BECCS). Instead, when taking into account damage to health and the environment, and the danger of runaway temperature rise, it should be clear that better policies must be implemented soon, such as local feebates, to support better methods and technologies such as biochar, heat pumps and eVTOL air taxis. <br /><br /></li><li><b>Rising emissions</b> - Politicians claim that merely stating to aim for net-zero emissions will suffice to reduce emissions, whereas the evidence shows that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have started to grow again, following minor Covid lockdown-related reductions in 2020, as illustrated by the image below, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/a-climate-of-insanity.html">earlier post</a>. </li></ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/s1200/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/w640-h294/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>[ </b>Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022" style="text-decoration-line: none;">EIA</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><ul><li><b>Carbon sink loss</b> - Carbon sinks have long been taking carbon out of the atmosphere, but they are struggling and many may turn from sinks into sources and instead add carbon to the atmosphere. In 2023, nearly 2bn tons of carbon <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161019274199679">is estimated</a> to have already gone up into the atmosphere in Canada up to now due to forest fires, far exceeding annual emissions tied to Canada’s economy (i.e. 670m tons). As temperatures rise, trees become more vulnerable to diseases and insects such as bark beetles. A <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159031278719679">2020 study</a> shows that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis. Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040. As temperatures rise, soils and vegetation will lose moisture to the atmosphere. The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html">evapotranspiration</a> from the soil and vegetation, with the rise in land surface temperatures accelerating and vegetation decaying accordingly. Higher temperatures result in more extreme weather events, such as fires, droughts, storms, flooding and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160582972429679">erosion</a>, that can all contribute to further decrease the terrestrial carbon sink. The ocean <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159750240039679">is also struggling as a carbon sink</a>, in part because increased river runoff and meltwater <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158274656539679">lowers alkalinity</a> levels. Furthermore, warmer water holds less oxygen and is becoming more stratified and thus less able to supply nutrients to help plankton grow and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158520339339679">store carbon</a>. <br /><br /></li><li><b>Hydroxyl loss</b> - There is a danger that hydroxyl, the main way that methane gets broken down in the atmosphere, is declining or getting overwhelmed by the rise in methane, as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html#23">described here</a>.<br /><br /></li><li><b>Heat sink loss</b> - <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160905430659679">This recent study</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161027856294679">this one</a> warn that <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc.html">AMOC</a> (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) is slowing down faster than expected. A <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">recent post</a> warns that this can contribute to more hot water accumulating in the North Atlantic, as opposed to moving to greater depth. The post also warns that, as temperatures rise, less heat gets stored in oceans, because stratification increases and more heat can get transferred from oceans to the atmosphere as sea ice disappears. There also are <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html">indications</a> that, over time, proportionally more heat is remaining in the atmosphere, while less heat gets stored on land. All this results in a hotter atmosphere. <br /> <br /></li><li><b>Albedo loss</b> - Loss of sea ice, loss of snow cover and warming oceans causing fewer bright clouds combine to reflect less sunlight back into space, as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159604016414679">discussed here</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160085259739679">here</a>. <br /></li></ul>
<div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpu8mxABsgSykfd6whafsfCWDavFwTrPsLGv0ovRq7zHfzX65m_usIKuR8rSuHxxfAMqYVqw_5FyKoWu4gYsi1PJi60Q3xovzASi-AbNm-Rkr5l3NNDfZEYmvintqj4_sgEH_TLk0vu4SYiaEd63uL_Si7qN_ym9bjFIAfG-4CkXpZ0CNGyGSgliIR=s794" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="517" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpu8mxABsgSykfd6whafsfCWDavFwTrPsLGv0ovRq7zHfzX65m_usIKuR8rSuHxxfAMqYVqw_5FyKoWu4gYsi1PJi60Q3xovzASi-AbNm-Rkr5l3NNDfZEYmvintqj4_sgEH_TLk0vu4SYiaEd63uL_Si7qN_ym9bjFIAfG-4CkXpZ0CNGyGSgliIR=w640-h517" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ from: <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">When will humans go extinct?</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div><ul><li><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKuMt8zHBEV7UYyfY4l46hNPfJiFZfbW7haQNV6ZRS9UZRSIdE0lnjrk29DTP56DuQVVtbhrl9gI8kJShDVFmiZIcNL1HaruouRKQBKOMmPpwso9mqJ6hY7jHNe5w7GneZETClHkgVstRQJk_oG_BPHeb6i24J93cBk5UGzk5W-mWt1bnIWYaEIh7D/s603/feedbacks.png" style="clear: right; color: #992211; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="603" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKuMt8zHBEV7UYyfY4l46hNPfJiFZfbW7haQNV6ZRS9UZRSIdE0lnjrk29DTP56DuQVVtbhrl9gI8kJShDVFmiZIcNL1HaruouRKQBKOMmPpwso9mqJ6hY7jHNe5w7GneZETClHkgVstRQJk_oG_BPHeb6i24J93cBk5UGzk5W-mWt1bnIWYaEIh7D/s320/feedbacks.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ Two out of numerous <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">feedbacks</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<b>Feedbacks</b> - Important also is the accelerating rate of change. In many respects, we're in uncharted territory and changes are occurring faster than ever in Earth's history, which should be reason for caution and even more reason to plan ahead! <br /><br />The danger is growing that feedbacks are kicking in with ever greater ferocity, i.e. non-linear change. The image on the right, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html">earlier post</a>, illustrates how two self-reinforcing feedback loops can contribute to accelerate the Arctic temperature rise.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/s1200/August-2023-SST.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1200" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/w640-h254/August-2023-SST.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></li><li><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s636/potential-rise.png" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituqCwQSD6VloKbWUSGwoCgP1KzcRhUOqD2RIQUSy2hfkbM-D1Nfg-gDmFCPo7_1vmCN6kwB1Q8nNqumjzco63P_cXs-kb0d7wOf8jgMpmo6QkP-V9SnQXPvZDoOdjuK6VnamEmzqvHpA/s16000/potential-rise.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ see the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Extinction page</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Tipping Points</b> - An even more dramatic form of non-linear change occurs when tipping points get crossed, and the consequences can be catastrophic for the entire world. <br /><br />The above image, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-reached.html">earlier post</a>, illustrates the danger that, as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, the ocean temperature will keep rising as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic. <br /><br />It is essential to assess the danger of events and developments such as heat reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2023.html">this one</a>. <br /><br />Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html">clouds tipping point</a> to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">extinction page</a>. <br /><br />Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">NOAA</a> image below.<br /><br /></li></ul></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEd3GO_WU-dVywxbPP2NZ6xwPA0pQkhm42KkAfLq0d4TF5UDJylwFDeo6ZfcuEqwhdFuWlWUnzei8UXWZhCDyRk3ltqemYZzE4OraY_JhEqJ5i_8a4HqMfxbSWyJXaqAK2FLEmrnaZwbtywDTxb9TUYmEtPwY3aT9fQQ2soG32FUtKJUSETiSePpy4k8U/s1200/Sep-30-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1200" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEd3GO_WU-dVywxbPP2NZ6xwPA0pQkhm42KkAfLq0d4TF5UDJylwFDeo6ZfcuEqwhdFuWlWUnzei8UXWZhCDyRk3ltqemYZzE4OraY_JhEqJ5i_8a4HqMfxbSWyJXaqAK2FLEmrnaZwbtywDTxb9TUYmEtPwY3aT9fQQ2soG32FUtKJUSETiSePpy4k8U/w640-h456/Sep-30-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><b>Conclusion</b></div><div>
<br />
Alarms bells have sounded loud and clear, such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html">here</a>, warning that the temperature rise could be more than 3°C as early as in 2026. The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">this 2022 post</a> in combination with a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">declaration of a climate emergency</a>.
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<div><b>Links</b></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>• Climate Reanalyzer</div><div><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world</a></div>
<div><br /></div><div>• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School </div><div><a href="https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table">https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table</a></div><div><br /></div>
<div>• Paris Agreement</div>
<div><a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf</a></div>
<div><br /></div><div>• International Energy Agency (IEA) - Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022</div><div><a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022">https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022</a></div><div><br />• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />• Transforming Society</div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a>
<br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration
<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="501" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168433605305161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><div><br /></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-57459939511231139382023-09-18T22:12:00.002-07:002023-09-18T22:30:41.528-07:00A climate of Insanity<p style="text-align: center;"><i>by Andrew Glikson</i></p>
<p><i>As the emission of greenhouse gases continues, new fossil fuel projects are subsidized, global warming accelerates, bushfires and floods engulf the planet, climate science is ignored, climate change projections are kept away from the public eye, nations invest in killer submarines rather than water spraying aircraft and other fire-fighting equipment, politicians talk about clean coal, radioactive waters are spilled into the ocean, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=modern+nuclear+weapons&sca_esv=566033897&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&ei=5KIGZdPvCcfV2roPqJ2PiAQ&ved=0ahUKEwjT8ZeYiLGBAxXHqlYBHajOA0EQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=modern+nuclear+weapons&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFm1vZGVybiBudWNsZWFyIHdlYXBvbnMyCBAAGIoFGJECMggQABiKBRiRAjIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB5IlkdQ_QdY4SdwAXgBkAEAmAHnAaABtBKqAQUwLjcuNbgBA8gBAPgBAcICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAgYQABgHGB7CAggQABgIGAcYHsICCBAAGAUYBxgewgIKEAAYigUYsQMYQ8ICCBAAGAcYHhgP4gMEGAAgQYgGAZAGCA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp">nuclear weapons</a> are readied for a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction">MAD scenario</a>, the media reports sugar-coated semi or untruths, politicians routinely betray their original pledges and playboy billionaires fire rockets at space with plans to settle on Mars.</i></p>Inherent in the nature of <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=insanity+definition&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=&aqs=chrome.0.69i59i450l8.1714j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">insanity</a> is the fact that those inflicted by it are unaware of their mental state, nor are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonestown">crowds of people</a> or for that matter political <a href="https://www.hcplive.com/view/were-the-nazis-certifiably-insane-psychiatrists-look-back">parties</a>, and business elites, leading populations to catastrophe, from the scale of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonestown">Jonestown</a> all the way to Auschwitz and Berlin to Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.<br /><br />Which has now reached a planet-wide scale. According to NASA former chief climate scientist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen">James Hansen</a>, the global temperature in the current El Niño is exceeding the previous El-Niño (2015-16) temperature rise rate of 0.18°C per decade, reflecting the current increase of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) and accelerated heating. The change is in part due to reductions of the cooling effect of human-emitted aerosols (Figure 1). <br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK59WF9vRk-ApNej05h4uVqxgYIfMMq4rEqQxsA0AUDsVH0A_X-KXfo0ZQhQHIdJ-W59Ffq__ZhAGYeluD5UcLzO1aUFz5sxRA2DJEf_cBxY-pw4Hfe5ELF9YBHe25wOhUr12VXoTNqhen1Obt3IX4F5BYuFOgi3IhwLW7K6T09FMXZE1THsjhiKzoHF0/s860/rise-up-to-August-2023.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="611" data-original-width="860" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK59WF9vRk-ApNej05h4uVqxgYIfMMq4rEqQxsA0AUDsVH0A_X-KXfo0ZQhQHIdJ-W59Ffq__ZhAGYeluD5UcLzO1aUFz5sxRA2DJEf_cBxY-pw4Hfe5ELF9YBHe25wOhUr12VXoTNqhen1Obt3IX4F5BYuFOgi3IhwLW7K6T09FMXZE1THsjhiKzoHF0/w640-h454/rise-up-to-August-2023.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 1.</b> Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) during the El Niño origin year for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Niños. The impact of El Niño on global temperature usually peaks early in the year following the year when the El Niño originated. <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf">Hansen et al., 2023</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<br />Despite consequent acidification of the oceans, atmospheric <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection">geoengineering using sulphur aerosols</a>, reflecting solar radiation, is <a href="https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2020.107873">touted as a last defence</a> from extreme temperature rise. To date, no effective method has been applied to a drawdown of greenhouse gases on a scale required to compensate for the emissions and rise in atmospheric CO₂ (Figure 2). <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmTChPt14kNiudceeWbla_zkPufLazobxrrNIzFLjCgHtrLP1hK1ySJhVSIAjv13_OL7bA1_ZbKr52muNUahQV4cVWShUt1FKmlc4B3kvISBB4QiRmZBUgGZxyasdiEIXxuZeScOIrzK8pVdLC9R_p9nWHC24TsoX4fATy_EVUQwkoqPwF5fiS4h4RGMw/s1200/global-fossil-fuel-consumption.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<img border="0" data-original-height="847" data-original-width="1200" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmTChPt14kNiudceeWbla_zkPufLazobxrrNIzFLjCgHtrLP1hK1ySJhVSIAjv13_OL7bA1_ZbKr52muNUahQV4cVWShUt1FKmlc4B3kvISBB4QiRmZBUgGZxyasdiEIXxuZeScOIrzK8pVdLC9R_p9nWHC24TsoX4fATy_EVUQwkoqPwF5fiS4h4RGMw/w640-h452/global-fossil-fuel-consumption.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 2.</b> Source: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels#global-fossil-fuel-consumption">https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels#global-fossil-fuel-consumption</a></td></tr></tbody></table>
<br />Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have started to grow again, following minor Covid lockdown-related reductions in 2020 (Figure 3).<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/s1200/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TsePdDJ5g2rmk6fI8OhoLsMm_Rc4tchyAq_WoOv2QXZ4__h9LzwtDZSAqSRtP-wowS5XZBYnzDQ2oUXBEWmdfLZzb02LPlCKsuzStTocZSZx-EL6Kn_lhNvK5E_979yQAdUYbI_6n4bh71ZcsOtrnWKDLw77ffy6EGwQXDNIPG6FkOLPyJD91_5CnQE/w640-h294/EIA-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 3.</b> Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022">EIA</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>A rise to a mean global temperature to 3°C and <a href="https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm#:~:text=Warming%20of%204%C2%B0C%20will%20likely%20lead%20to%20a,well%20below%201.5%C2%B0C.">4°C this century is projected by the IPCC</a>. <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;">Possibly even before such temperatures are reached,</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;"> </span>the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica could lead to transient regional to global temperature reversals (Hansen et al., 1998; <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0712-z">Bronselaer et al. 2018)</a>. These authors state: <i>“Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections.”</i> (Figure 4)</div><div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihKEueexyPv5WO9lTPyhXx9m63ILE6rXzopJ57X1NnoXhNToohHoJQm78H-saVZodYDXAcJnnWg_Y8nusZvVxPaHG5iD7EUmgZXIyntV9ZXMwuiALOmtub-Q2KmDxk02oI1rP7FKJcGMMY2rWSczAYh_0m17gR5yPHbOgLSag9nycB3C93SxFzfBe5V5w/s665/Hansen-2016.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="650" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihKEueexyPv5WO9lTPyhXx9m63ILE6rXzopJ57X1NnoXhNToohHoJQm78H-saVZodYDXAcJnnWg_Y8nusZvVxPaHG5iD7EUmgZXIyntV9ZXMwuiALOmtub-Q2KmDxk02oI1rP7FKJcGMMY2rWSczAYh_0m17gR5yPHbOgLSag9nycB3C93SxFzfBe5V5w/s16000/Hansen-2016.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 4.</b> (a) Model surface air temperature (°C) change in 2055–2060 relative to 1880–1920 for modified<br /> forcings representint the rise of temperatures in the tropics and decline in subpolar latitudes. <br /> (b) Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several ice melt scenarios, representing stadial<br /> (cooling) episodes related to the effects of ice melt (<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016/&source=gmail&ust=1695115677505000&usg=AOvVaw33PFQi9XRgJ4D6AiU7-A_0" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/3761/2016/" target="_blank">Hansen et al., 2016</a>) and associated changes.</td></tr></tbody></table>
<br />
<div>According to <a href="https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00610m.html">Hansen et al. (2012)</a> <i>“Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.</i></div>
<div><br /></div>The habitability of Earth and the future of life are issues that are to a large extent avoided by the largely privately-owned <a href="https://hbr.org/1995/05/why-the-news-is-not-the-truth">corporate media</a> and even by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_media">state media</a>, occupied as they are by advertisements, sports contests, fashion parades, cooking shows and popular frenzies such as recently generated by the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=kissinbg+a+football+champion+by+a+director&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1033AU1033&oq=kissinbg+a+football+champion+by+a+director&aqs=chrome..69i57.25030j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">kissing of a football cup winner</a>.</div><div><br />Is there a way out for humanity and much of nature?
<br /><br />If the multiple $trillions spent by Sapiens on the military and war were directed to environmental defence, including drawdown of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the possibility exists?</div><div><br /><br /><i>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i><div><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></i><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a></div><div>
<div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168403809580161&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="588" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe></div><br /></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-20493087402273926272023-09-15T00:39:00.022-07:002023-09-17T06:10:57.924-07:00Seafloor methane tipping point reached<p>The bold black line at the top of the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows extremely high sea surface temperatures up to September 13, 2023, much higher than in any previous year on record.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8pKjo1c6X8_57pyj7GvNJGQqsh-W-7FYDawRPGiP7hKGDcDZ6NDHlHQ_pPJxgDny7v8Y1fOtlOF2l4lSR5OqgsdvcDWxPCIULnD-zcWfxG3NAjN3lAJVptWxWy2aP7HF8ECLCsMVGpwUhHISsozZ3v7cEaw1ETJ0fnH8ufhcgyDhEl6H6tG1E_3DG8HI/s1200/September-13-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1200" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8pKjo1c6X8_57pyj7GvNJGQqsh-W-7FYDawRPGiP7hKGDcDZ6NDHlHQ_pPJxgDny7v8Y1fOtlOF2l4lSR5OqgsdvcDWxPCIULnD-zcWfxG3NAjN3lAJVptWxWy2aP7HF8ECLCsMVGpwUhHISsozZ3v7cEaw1ETJ0fnH8ufhcgyDhEl6H6tG1E_3DG8HI/w640-h386/September-13-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>The image below, created with <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">NASA data</a>, shows why these extremely high sea surface temperatures are so worrying. The image shows monthly mean global surface temperature anomalies (open ocean) vs 1901-1930. The ochre trend, based on January 1900-August 2023 data, indicates the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2021 and the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed in 2033. The red trend, based on August 2008-August 2023 data and better reflecting <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">variables such as El Niño</a>, indicates that the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed late 2023. Data show the seafloor methane tipping point was reached in August 2023. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/s1200/August-2023-SST.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1200" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8oR3H3VDdigMbpTTUe7-m56TvQU8FT8EFWI-47Rbf7tMRsgSddJ78jKR4XLuZuIrbQf-Zo_Zecd0kTey1EOprDA7JznsL_5jcrhZwZJrYagaK3bZSf7XR5tbbbuDaLxd47DfWUmqqJ8OvTUJk2IBJx9RZKDSKNfdNZLcP9hWXtN1Ie070AzhSXJvFcc/w640-h254/August-2023-SST.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>The latent heat tipping point is estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average, 1901-1930 on the above image, as discussed in earlier posts such as <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html">this one</a>. </p>
<p>Sea ice constitutes a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">latent heat buffer</a>, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains at 0°C (273.15K or 32 °F). Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUCv5yWhEHnsot3P8Rz2eczTCokFxi4zLdbaFLUdXmgvf4HjudQZ4NMRRlFLTDG4xxJKk7mMMRduHE_F368MeURu8ZQhnMvJYNl8sDiQ6JW9H9TjnVeFhCA-F6995FyYOQ-4s4uM7WNag/s1600/latent-heat.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="569" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUCv5yWhEHnsot3P8Rz2eczTCokFxi4zLdbaFLUdXmgvf4HjudQZ4NMRRlFLTDG4xxJKk7mMMRduHE_F368MeURu8ZQhnMvJYNl8sDiQ6JW9H9TjnVeFhCA-F6995FyYOQ-4s4uM7WNag/s1600/latent-heat.png" style="border: none; color: #cc4411; font-size: 14.85px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ The <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Latent Heat Buffer</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div>Once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, no longer gets consumed by melting of the sea ice, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean. </div><div><br />The latent heat tipping point has meanwhile been crossed. Loss of this buffer is linked to the seafloor methane tipping point, i.e. the point where additional heat reaches the seafloor and destabilizes hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor. This tipping point comes with multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops, such as explosive growth in methane volume setting off further destabilization, rapid rise of Arctic temperatures, loss of permafrost and loss of albedo, and release of further greenhouse gases.</div><div>
<br />Crossing of the seafloor methane tipping point will occur later than crossing of the latent heat tipping point, i.e. the seafloor methane tipping point corresponds with a higher ocean temperature anomaly, estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1.35°C above the long term average.</div>
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The current situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin and the latent heat tipping point has been crossed. <div><br /></div>
<div>As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat can reach sediments located at the seafloor, since much of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow and sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can contain vast amounts of methane.
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The danger is that additional heat will destabilize hydrates in these sediments, leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, and resulting in huge eruptions of methane both from the destabilizing hydrates and from methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/s1200/NH-ocean-temperature.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1200" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/w640-h266/NH-ocean-temperature.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">earlier post</a>, click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
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The above image, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">earlier post</a>, illustrates that warnings have been given before about the danger of these two tipping points getting crossed in the Arctic. In the above image, the trends are based on annual sea surface temperature data for the Northern Hemisphere. The seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to correspond with ocean temperature anomalies reaching 1.35°C above the long term average.</div><div><br /></div><div>The image below further illustrates the high sea surface temperatures in and around the Arctic Ocean, with the red to yellow colors indicating temperature anomalies above the 1981-2011 average, and the green circle marking a sea surface temperature anomaly near the North Pole of 0.4°C on September 13, 2023. </div></div><div><div><div><div><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2wd41r7eXqARLIqVPPwEsS2xrG5Zk7sLJC0DGxAd2Ja13JE3lHnTGEA10OkJZPRvAQq9dj6oMpdaI5v4gma_OdiqTeIgMHTLf5DzNJLzDcJzLGXf_gnUbSUIBA9znBM-R3JkotcqsP847utgr5RUdrUO8uEQh38LiWIlqA_3ewvLfdXAJ0AO5tZBl0M0/s942/September-13-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="942" height="634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2wd41r7eXqARLIqVPPwEsS2xrG5Zk7sLJC0DGxAd2Ja13JE3lHnTGEA10OkJZPRvAQq9dj6oMpdaI5v4gma_OdiqTeIgMHTLf5DzNJLzDcJzLGXf_gnUbSUIBA9znBM-R3JkotcqsP847utgr5RUdrUO8uEQh38LiWIlqA_3ewvLfdXAJ0AO5tZBl0M0/w640-h634/September-13-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow. </div>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s1600/Buffer.png" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s640/Buffer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px;"><i>[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html" style="color: #771000; text-decoration-line: none;">Feedbacks page</a> ]
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Further adding to the danger is that destabilization of methane hydrates can cause huge amounts of methane to erupt with great force from the seafloor in the form of plumes. Consequently, little of the methane can be broken down in the water by microbes, while there is very little hydroxyl in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean to break down the methane that enters the atmosphere.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO0OetwXwP5Rjcez2q-mz-PwjC18FXi1KwIM89_ZuF6mW32WfPfO6SVYqtukEknpb3qRamIv411YRWHBhYleNKhBJmV9tog-r_b_iHQXgm6GcSEJKNuGwLfWcRg0o-caT9qYF2uL4TrQeHwJ_T39c2rxPTwkvMZJLqpcixJHRBKFshCorxcI7kB_imiCY/s1200/September-16-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1200" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO0OetwXwP5Rjcez2q-mz-PwjC18FXi1KwIM89_ZuF6mW32WfPfO6SVYqtukEknpb3qRamIv411YRWHBhYleNKhBJmV9tog-r_b_iHQXgm6GcSEJKNuGwLfWcRg0o-caT9qYF2uL4TrQeHwJ_T39c2rxPTwkvMZJLqpcixJHRBKFshCorxcI7kB_imiCY/w640-h456/September-16-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGRapVW1h3J0XH3NTXDvag2fZnpDrfbVedTvvHsC1_yC5mPRvr5RxYgsFpH6uNKUCWiXxwechaZWoOxlQYp3EVl0mfvnK_Dj6_8yLZFkGL5jaBSmW-YJsA7nWLUaPVuKtQj-9JoUhQISfMj76A0s-HnUoSRRqOHYv3X0LfTolYwrMINwl83toIBHCk5ic/s950/September-15-2023-pm-2.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="950" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGRapVW1h3J0XH3NTXDvag2fZnpDrfbVedTvvHsC1_yC5mPRvr5RxYgsFpH6uNKUCWiXxwechaZWoOxlQYp3EVl0mfvnK_Dj6_8yLZFkGL5jaBSmW-YJsA7nWLUaPVuKtQj-9JoUhQISfMj76A0s-HnUoSRRqOHYv3X0LfTolYwrMINwl83toIBHCk5ic/s320/September-15-2023-pm-2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div>Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the above <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">NOAA</a> image.</div>
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<div>The MetOp satellite image on the right shows methane levels, with the magenta color indicating the highest methane levels recorded at surface level (1000 mb), on September 15, 2023 am.</div>
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<div>The N20 satellite image underneath shows methane levels at an altitude corresponding with 487 mb on September 10, 2023 am. The magenta color again indicates the highest methane levels recorded at the time. </div>
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<div><div><div style="text-align: right;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjsq4vUKHVesM2ztwGqyc4KiBCZmGTbxKBuQJjfY0kldrLtmI_y7AJF67yLIiIAYrOVIYxbfcxf_muzNL9zN1K3SnOL8n21R_zk0vX6oQPY28Jg89PYXgPrqsAslwDAPBPM7P_o7WqaSXLGvmy_A7tyb13Ean8GwjvMuZsgZhpd3GsoJyvbRiFz7PmIm4/s950/September-10-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="950" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjsq4vUKHVesM2ztwGqyc4KiBCZmGTbxKBuQJjfY0kldrLtmI_y7AJF67yLIiIAYrOVIYxbfcxf_muzNL9zN1K3SnOL8n21R_zk0vX6oQPY28Jg89PYXgPrqsAslwDAPBPM7P_o7WqaSXLGvmy_A7tyb13Ean8GwjvMuZsgZhpd3GsoJyvbRiFz7PmIm4/s320/September-10-2023.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Note the high levels over the Beaufort Sea and elsewhere over the Arctic Ocean, as well as high levels recorded over oceans in the Southern Hemisphere. </div>
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<div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and runaway heating could destroy all life on Earth. At 5°C heating, most life on Earth will have disappeared. When looking only at near-term human extinction, 3°C will likely suffice.</div>
</div><div><div><br />
The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">Climate Emergency Declaration</a> and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">Climate Plan</a> with an update at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">Transforming Society</a>.
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<div><br /></div>
<div><b>Links</b>
<br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature
<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a>
<br /><br />• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis</div>
<div><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html</a>
<br /><br />• nullschool.net</div><div><a href="https://earth.nullschool.net">https://earth.nullschool.net</a>
<br /><br />• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a>
<br /><br />• NOAA - MetOp satellite records
<br /><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html</a>
<br /><br />• NOAA - N20 satellite records<br /><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html</a><br /><br />• Two Tipping Points<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html</a><br /><br />• Sea surface temperature at record high<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html</a></div><div><br /></div>• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html</a><br /><br />• Latent Heat<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html</a><br /><br />• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html</a><br /><br />• FAQ<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html</a><br /><br />• Feedbacks<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html</a></div><div><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Transforming Society<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="793" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168390077090161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><br /></div></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-92177476369058446702023-09-10T02:15:00.005-07:002023-09-11T00:34:31.516-07:00Methane eruptions threaten<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHC092VZ5VvtcSg6H4mhHN-lzVChup5k9R7dG7rCNAN4fVa0fS_tWZzZYWid95wUCclLzf-6dMxyQUHe8kpK7WESPvcEkdVRFYRCl8hSbybFGQjRNR31o5GADDUemC2RxezJrwyCXHB7KVsRLCGmIal5hUfGwGk61n4tQaV23rivpoBR7jXfNy4mE0VWU/s1200/September-8-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="1200" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHC092VZ5VvtcSg6H4mhHN-lzVChup5k9R7dG7rCNAN4fVa0fS_tWZzZYWid95wUCclLzf-6dMxyQUHe8kpK7WESPvcEkdVRFYRCl8hSbybFGQjRNR31o5GADDUemC2RxezJrwyCXHB7KVsRLCGmIal5hUfGwGk61n4tQaV23rivpoBR7jXfNy4mE0VWU/w640-h386/September-8-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW2_Z2w1fIQH-b91rmrGKmaVKji6uSvaBb8CO01TJV0N9j6yEWhrIjofx8gDTGr-1LnY5OVQ_kObl7SAlj2k7J-LqiHNwK-larh2Oj4bFZyeOj4DDszNjLWytxfZ1rzMRITWypkLRb0J15b-1BgWWfjxIoD3S-25rlXktjE-fcfYLw5SyVso0kjoLdfSY/s988/September-8-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="988" data-original-width="698" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW2_Z2w1fIQH-b91rmrGKmaVKji6uSvaBb8CO01TJV0N9j6yEWhrIjofx8gDTGr-1LnY5OVQ_kObl7SAlj2k7J-LqiHNwK-larh2Oj4bFZyeOj4DDszNjLWytxfZ1rzMRITWypkLRb0J15b-1BgWWfjxIoD3S-25rlXktjE-fcfYLw5SyVso0kjoLdfSY/s320/September-8-2023.jpg" width="226" /></a></div>
The above image, adapted from <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">Climate Reanalyzer</a>, shows that on September 8, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a new record high temperature, of 25.4°C, even higher than the record reached the day before.
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<div>The situation is critical! More heat entering the Arctic Ocean threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and enter the atmosphere. </div><div><br /></div>
<div>The image on the right, adapted from <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-87138.86088449847,-98868.92624648947,87023.42444016693,149293.6434006733&p=arctic&l=Reference_Labels_15m,Reference_Features_15m,Coastlines_15m,Graticule_15m,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC,VIIRS_NOAA20_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&lg=true&t=2023-09-08-T03%3A22%3A26Z">NASA Worldview</a>, shows the poor state of the sea ice. <br />
<br />On September 8, 2023, the Polarstern reached the North Pole. The <a href="https://twitter.com/AWI_Media/status/1700109787835318574/photo/1">image below</a> shows the research vessel and the sea ice at the North Pole.</div><div> <br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Polarstern?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Polarstern</a> reaches the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NorthPole?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NorthPole</a> for the seventh time 🫶Five weeks after setting sail from Tromsø, our research vessel makes a stop at the northernmost point on Earth. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AWI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AWI</a> <a href="https://t.co/iNxZYZUSk3">https://t.co/iNxZYZUSk3</a><br /><br />📸Esther Horvath <a href="https://t.co/E4uuzosbtU">pic.twitter.com/E4uuzosbtU</a></p>— AWI Media (@AWI_Media) <a href="https://twitter.com/AWI_Media/status/1700109787835318574?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicWzPMVfpQAQVFGxg-nw3vVax3bXFfRIxGP5b4x7CrnsBjWYzOCfyl-zj4YAS5zjdNbh_4Rpyimx_aQz9niAu5GHV3LdRODoI-VVAZWyS9pEtZ8d8GnJLbLIdp_996M1oMHnUgg5b4mjqikzQ6FEXzEkr5_wlj9IJbxAhXgse-hGEgnZp4NK0IsxbAAZM/s678/September-9-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="550" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicWzPMVfpQAQVFGxg-nw3vVax3bXFfRIxGP5b4x7CrnsBjWYzOCfyl-zj4YAS5zjdNbh_4Rpyimx_aQz9niAu5GHV3LdRODoI-VVAZWyS9pEtZ8d8GnJLbLIdp_996M1oMHnUgg5b4mjqikzQ6FEXzEkr5_wlj9IJbxAhXgse-hGEgnZp4NK0IsxbAAZM/s320/September-9-2023.jpg" width="260" /></a></div>The image on the right, adapted from <a href="https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Polarstern_AMSR2_visual.png">University of Bremen</a>, shows Arctic sea ice concentration and the route followed by the Polarstern. <br /><br />The threat is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. <br /><br />Erupting from the hydrates occurs at great force, since the methane expands 160 when decompressed, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere. <br /><br /><div>After months of very high temperatures, the Arctic reached a new record high temperature for the time of year, i.e. 1.52°C on September 10, 2023, an anomaly of 2.25°C.</div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhebUAKtAnLZrfJjN9bCKpVMsTcY8xT0-5waVWBNsN78PKRUlys9D57gozqS5bfxOl2cUG3VJdD1I7uZgc1RBQIiXCswI9RPf7Fmju8Lb0CyUfDb8eZQ8lyKXa6SPFFCsq4RqD_uW0iUDUwc6r8cbG2JqOVLy-U9BUUbKNm1L9Gwby2lWwfQv8NvRQh9_Y/s1200/September-10-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1200" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhebUAKtAnLZrfJjN9bCKpVMsTcY8xT0-5waVWBNsN78PKRUlys9D57gozqS5bfxOl2cUG3VJdD1I7uZgc1RBQIiXCswI9RPf7Fmju8Lb0CyUfDb8eZQ8lyKXa6SPFFCsq4RqD_uW0iUDUwc6r8cbG2JqOVLy-U9BUUbKNm1L9Gwby2lWwfQv8NvRQh9_Y/w640-h386/September-10-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, global sea ice extent is much lower than in any other year on record for this time of year.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3kZk_XoQXroZNJqhLe5LB5mLuloFDuo8g2rYdd8ET77ceSHy4p81atzHXro9suSUl3MrYFjviyw3oxfmFNYLdb34yG2zZ1pTtScgUglR-9UmO5xy26SxLYoCGo-h_r_D1cjoWXSJH6FEES-z-6aIAgL8rWu2QYkHJrhZtDqUdl7VbLkTWlIm7xzPAHX4/s1605/September-10-2023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="1605" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3kZk_XoQXroZNJqhLe5LB5mLuloFDuo8g2rYdd8ET77ceSHy4p81atzHXro9suSUl3MrYFjviyw3oxfmFNYLdb34yG2zZ1pTtScgUglR-9UmO5xy26SxLYoCGo-h_r_D1cjoWXSJH6FEES-z-6aIAgL8rWu2QYkHJrhZtDqUdl7VbLkTWlIm7xzPAHX4/w640-h362/September-10-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br />Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSMapFj2qkWpsuwZ3c4PW1lLK24HQObalq1WtCe1mbAaBRwTQvZHcy49Rjc8mK50aVItxymGVCW_HvX9oXQ2ki-bY2H1CUVxgqTbUnU2kPiKBzepY8V8mpNDFPIYj_niw-t3q40SR8LNLoWdjBw72Lkv_gzJwQmDDxIin1UjsazNQIZUY1DlIHtmyOKkE/s1188/September-10-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="1188" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSMapFj2qkWpsuwZ3c4PW1lLK24HQObalq1WtCe1mbAaBRwTQvZHcy49Rjc8mK50aVItxymGVCW_HvX9oXQ2ki-bY2H1CUVxgqTbUnU2kPiKBzepY8V8mpNDFPIYj_niw-t3q40SR8LNLoWdjBw72Lkv_gzJwQmDDxIin1UjsazNQIZUY1DlIHtmyOKkE/w640-h454/September-10-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><b>Conclusion</b></div><div><br /></div>The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">Climate Emergency Declaration</a> and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">Climate Plan</a> with an update at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">Transforming Society</a>.<br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Links</b></div><div><br /></div>
<div>• Climate Reanalyzer - North Atlantic sea surface temperature</div>
<div><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a></div><div><br /></div>
<div>• NASA Worldview</div>
<div><a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov">https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov</a></div>
<br />• Polarstern reaches North Pole - Research icebreaker at the northernmost point of the earth for the seventh time
<div><a href="https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/single-view/polarstern-erreicht-nordpol.html">https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/single-view/polarstern-erreicht-nordpol.html</a></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div>• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice concentration</div>
<div><a href="https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start">https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start</a></div>
<div><br /></div>• Arctic Data archive System<div><a href="https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent">https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States</div><div><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a></div><div><br /></div>• Climate Plan
<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br />
<br />• Transforming Society
<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a>
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<br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-38569089641205816852023-09-04T01:42:00.007-07:002023-09-06T01:26:59.856-07:00Too late? The climate and nuclear juggernaut<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioyxLWE5eamG2Y4iYIYF3BSQSVeZZ3PvIqK8tED05IcFhpB2205glgt7cZil2L5EVWyqvOfxnMdrWVGSBS6xZGe95eTlPosMdq6IJhSiplcZTIBkivrOcNXPs8im_UOdeNfT_gixm7_ZGOfW6-O_qA0rMaBIvBQKmUCAoNMcoiQdzG4USiI4VTYPfMXVs/s180/Doomsday_clock_(1.5_minutes).svg.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="180" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioyxLWE5eamG2Y4iYIYF3BSQSVeZZ3PvIqK8tED05IcFhpB2205glgt7cZil2L5EVWyqvOfxnMdrWVGSBS6xZGe95eTlPosMdq6IJhSiplcZTIBkivrOcNXPs8im_UOdeNfT_gixm7_ZGOfW6-O_qA0rMaBIvBQKmUCAoNMcoiQdzG4USiI4VTYPfMXVs/s1600/Doomsday_clock_(1.5_minutes).svg.png" width="180" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulletin_of_the_Atomic_Scientists"><i>Bulletin</i>'s Doomsday Clock</a></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;"><i><br />by Andrew Glikson</i></div>
<div><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;"><br />At <a href="https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/">90 seconds to a midnight</a> </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">and a <a crossing="" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/11/18/new-report-examines-risks-of-degree-hotter-world-by-end-of-century#:~:text=%22The%20Earth%20system" points="" responses="" rises="" s="" sharply.="" tipping="" to="">few decades to +4°C</a> </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">will ’<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Homo-sapiens">sapiens</a>’ end up <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)">on the beach?</a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><a a="" and="" c="" crossfire.="" href="https://www.cgvuk.org/when-elephants-fight-the-grass-gets-trampled/#:~:text=It" in="" killed="" poignant="" powerful="" s="" the="">When elephants fight the grass dies</a> (an African proverb)</div>
<br />
Under the guise of <a href="https://psychology.org.au/community/advocacy-social-issues/environment-climate-change-psychology/resources-for-psychologists-and-others-advocating/the-psychology-of-climate-change-denial">lies and cover-ups</a>, the global powers to be have set the stage for the unthinkable, a world-wide hair-trigger human suicide system taking much of nature with it. With the exception of abstract ideas or experimental attempts, no actual steps are being taken to slow down, or even reverse, the inexorable rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases, now rising into <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020PA004037">Miocene-like levels of >400</a> parts per million CO₂ within the century, the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-fatal-road-to-4-degrees-celsius.html">fastest rise rate identified in the geological record</a>.<br /><br />Nor are steps undertaken to try and dismantle the global doomsday fleet of more than <a href="https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals">12,700 nuclear warheads,</a> where space and the oceans have become nuclear playgrounds, enough to render large parts of the Earth uninhabitable.
<br /><br />
The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic and scientific leaders, matched only by the naive blindness of billions of people, is consistent with what has been referred to as the ‘<a href="https://www.britannica.com/story/the-fermi-paradox-where-are-all-the-aliens">Fermi Paradox’</a> ─ the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, interpreted in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.<br /><br />Even at this stage, the litany of <a href="https://psychology.org.au/community/advocacy-social-issues/environment-climate-change-psychology/resources-for-psychologists-and-others-advocating/the-psychology-of-climate-change-denial">denial</a> and <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/a-climate-of-betrayal/">betrayal</a> never stops. Political leaders who have vowed to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03067-w">adhere to the science</a>, shift to promote the mining and export of fossil fuels, as if greenhouse gases do not disperse in the atmosphere world-wide, or they adopt nuclear weaponry, as soon as they reach power. <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2017.0269"> A suicidal element in human nature</a>?
<br /><br />
While the multitudes are fixated on domestic issues and regional troubles, including genocidal conflicts and in corners of the world (Ukraine, Chechnya, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mein-Mar, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, and other), the price of maintaining an <a href="https://interestingliterature.com/2023/04/war-is-peace-freedom-is-slavery-ignorance-is-strength-meaning/">Orwellian ‘peace and stability </a>’, including ethnic cleansing, drowning refugees, economic hardships, misanthropic violence, football games, the tour de France, tennis rackets, relatively few are concerned with the deadly games of empire. Even symbolic gestures toward original people, like the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum">Voice</a>” are being objected to.
<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYn-sqFIoQgAVZsjRku8q1LKx8ODUY-alrJXJ3E2GqJb7ZWW-fyLJ_4F4L7x1RFGvn45xNzv4asFjp8oXp1vLExCyQbywe7McQP1Hz2Qg_pCM54N4JCQNXsER1TH4c46Xbd0YASHHqAXpQusjhkh1rNBDLdRXy0_8G3sQ95XroXIeC5N3KYPZkYt1ZljU/s479/Arnold_Boecklin-fiedelnder_Tod.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="479" data-original-width="387" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYn-sqFIoQgAVZsjRku8q1LKx8ODUY-alrJXJ3E2GqJb7ZWW-fyLJ_4F4L7x1RFGvn45xNzv4asFjp8oXp1vLExCyQbywe7McQP1Hz2Qg_pCM54N4JCQNXsER1TH4c46Xbd0YASHHqAXpQusjhkh1rNBDLdRXy0_8G3sQ95XroXIeC5N3KYPZkYt1ZljU/s16000/Arnold_Boecklin-fiedelnder_Tod.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Arnold Böcklin, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Portrait_with_Death_Playing_the_Fiddle">Self-portrait with Death playing the fiddle</a> (1872)</i></td></tr></tbody></table>As in the history of Athens and Sparta, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111353">the stronger force is more inclined to start a war</a>. Like schoolboys seeking association with bully alpha males, so do weaker nations look for the protection of an empire, which ends up using them as cannon fodder. <div><br /></div><div>It is more difficult to understand why, given the scientific and empirical evidence of global heating, intelligent people are prepared to sacrifice the future of their off-springs generations to the $multi-trillion fossil fuel industry and their advocates in governments. </div><div><br /></div><div>It would appear that, once representatives acquire real or apparent power, they leave conscience behind, adopting the <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2013/20130329_FaustianBargain.pdf">Faustian bargain</a> (<i>Deal with the devil, image right</i>).<br />
<br />
Where does responsibility lie? Where humans are caught up in the anthropogenic genome, not enough “good” angels exist. Where competition for food, shelter and reproduction are inherent, ethics, compassion and empathy may not be easy to find. Humanity may be more readily detected among small tribes than in large civilizations. A young child born in a bubble has few or no impressions impinging on its brain to respond to. By contrast children exposed to obscene violence and lies paraded on fluorescent screens are more likely to grow into distorted brain-washed multitudes.</div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinAKYs_RmWOttxGy57SCXD-YesuSb1_WdMXCNm0gVMFqitpiyGvZZ4WMFeoLLORU556IOm1FT-_gWc2QZnJfdEUqxrcK9A7Ah2p5yRLlzMq-UZIpnLCbHmcpp0bX8NoPIQttiztwZoOxJMufxW8NYkD9mlvVwfS-VZttRFQZbzb6urJEgfIlCIIxcy5aM/s239/Greta_Thunberg_4.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="184" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinAKYs_RmWOttxGy57SCXD-YesuSb1_WdMXCNm0gVMFqitpiyGvZZ4WMFeoLLORU556IOm1FT-_gWc2QZnJfdEUqxrcK9A7Ah2p5yRLlzMq-UZIpnLCbHmcpp0bX8NoPIQttiztwZoOxJMufxW8NYkD9mlvVwfS-VZttRFQZbzb6urJEgfIlCIIxcy5aM/s1600/Greta_Thunberg_4.jpg" width="184" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: start;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greta_Thunberg"><i>Greta Thunberg</i></a></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>But perhaps the most lethal human branch has become the media, which with few exceptions turned into a global propaganda machine skilful in distorting facts, promoting conflicts, manufacturing untruths, concealing avenues to peace and promoting wars in the tradition of Goebbels.
<br /><br />
Surprisingly, the only significant resistance to the genocidal behaviour of alpha male-dominated groups has arisen from the not-yet spoiled minds of children, led by the young Greta Thunberg.
<br /><br /><br /><i>A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson<br />Earth and Paleo-climate scientist</i></div><div><i><br /></i><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; float: right; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhaBnwpFA5sgAN6h3PF3mimwoAk3I-gXrjm7_rHcMhNosux7EUdHKy2_KXv5zWhPJs4hl1YioZ2Ecn5A0BvS8QVlwx5gR1x4iyZAjww2ZG1IfCh6esO_QnV32EDACgjRfbBPn_B1Zd0A/s1600/53475683456.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></i></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>Andrew Glikson</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><b>Books:</b><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272</a><br />The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073</a><br />The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369</a><br />The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332</a><br />Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111</a><br />Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318</a><br />From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027</a><br />Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442">https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442</a><br />The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction<br /><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679">https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679</a><br />The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080">https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080</a><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><br />
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<br /></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-69929657637678510302023-08-20T07:02:00.015-07:002023-08-26T18:07:18.579-07:00High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures hit the US again<p><b>Temperatures are high</b></p><p>Globally, temperatures have been at record high levels for the time of year for some time in 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQS-zHrIO29Zvv-YHTweq7sQkdqmQCkMJpIixnUe3sE4w-SmyVzJ11oVePpTytA_wqE9dJOdLzNbBNPsQNIyPpwK7Xiin9hliUaomRviJH4Ga56_wdoHIgdcD2Dlb_w_AKYLWHSo9dGiIRLLOftBrZ_20NHoZtT1miXScgEkk5VR6PMXrKRFDUCBKlRhM/s1200/August-25-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1200" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQS-zHrIO29Zvv-YHTweq7sQkdqmQCkMJpIixnUe3sE4w-SmyVzJ11oVePpTytA_wqE9dJOdLzNbBNPsQNIyPpwK7Xiin9hliUaomRviJH4Ga56_wdoHIgdcD2Dlb_w_AKYLWHSo9dGiIRLLOftBrZ_20NHoZtT1miXScgEkk5VR6PMXrKRFDUCBKlRhM/w640-h384/August-25-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />On August 25, 2023, the world temperature was 16.99°C, 0.94°C higher than it was on that day in 1979-2000. <p></p><p><b>Extreme heat stress alert</b><br /><br />High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures hit the U.S. over a large area, over a long time. </p><p>Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures were forecast to be as high as 95°F or 35°C in Lufkin, Texas, on Monday August 21, 2023 at 4 am Central Time.</p><p>Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures as high as 35°C were also forecast to be reached in Topeka, Kansas on the same day and at the same time, as illustrated by the image below.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH6VIyEduBdpsNdE1X90uDVI-KEMgGeGOmHB5FI-fdHF4RPz_Wv6HgBcsgKMTgoCRQOw_8cNbpsDxfUU7AHP2MVWR58-ra8FKdR67rnLGZOPHdFScL1qtlI8g1ZXVymfryaC0_XxnTMT_wGoxgwujXiM2PkofyKYcqMvkfVV7R5DmDOF48wOBNX2J2IZQ/s1714/Forecast-for-August-21-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="948" data-original-width="1714" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH6VIyEduBdpsNdE1X90uDVI-KEMgGeGOmHB5FI-fdHF4RPz_Wv6HgBcsgKMTgoCRQOw_8cNbpsDxfUU7AHP2MVWR58-ra8FKdR67rnLGZOPHdFScL1qtlI8g1ZXVymfryaC0_XxnTMT_wGoxgwujXiM2PkofyKYcqMvkfVV7R5DmDOF48wOBNX2J2IZQ/w640-h354/Forecast-for-August-21-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />The image below shows forecasts for August 24, 2023, measured as temperature (left), apparent temperature (center) and wet bulb globe temperature (right), three areas with high values marked by squares, circles, and stars, respectively. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgglO2tEYwSm1JzGJEeuGy_G3OPWJ6ap66IEe_5F7ReSLdYs9kf9oLrjgHibEil6dNdAkb__t_SO46JLd8VftDS6uSPLX2x9hj6CFTAabGid5eqTnufq9SrWO-2jwA-uwLBzKn7xQdTbGYwPPatulPWCAiH-MW4m0b0HsUZ6LeA4HZvWNBd6AIwvtNLJVo/s2517/Combination-August-24-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="2517" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgglO2tEYwSm1JzGJEeuGy_G3OPWJ6ap66IEe_5F7ReSLdYs9kf9oLrjgHibEil6dNdAkb__t_SO46JLd8VftDS6uSPLX2x9hj6CFTAabGid5eqTnufq9SrWO-2jwA-uwLBzKn7xQdTbGYwPPatulPWCAiH-MW4m0b0HsUZ6LeA4HZvWNBd6AIwvtNLJVo/w640-h242/Combination-August-24-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">For descriptions of the various ways temperature can be measures, also see the earlier post <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html">Extreme Heat Stress</a>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Unbearable conditions</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The images further illustrate that, as temperatures rise, conditions are increasingly occurring that make it hard, if not impossible for many species (including humans) to survive, even at relatively high latitudes. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts, such as in <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html">Humans may be extinct in 2026</a> and <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html">Two Tipping Points</a>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGqf3opyhUs">video below</a>, Guy McPherson gives his views on the situation.<br /><br /></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Conclusion</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">Climate Emergency Declaration</a> and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">Climate Plan</a> with an update at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">Transforming Society</a>.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: left;"><b>Links</b></p>• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily 2-meter Air Temperature<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily</a><p style="text-align: left;">• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature forecasts<br /><a href="https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov">https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov</a></p><p style="text-align: left;">• Extreme Heat Stress<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html</a></p>• National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use it<br /><a href="https://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT">https://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT</a><div><br /></div>• Humans may be extinct in 2026<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Two Tipping Points</div><div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div>• Transforming Society<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046701423623795423.post-45923341132983127882023-08-15T19:25:00.052-07:002023-08-29T16:57:07.176-07:00Two Tipping Points<p>The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the World Sea Surface Temperature (60°South - 60°North) was at a record high of 21.1°C or 69.98°F for the third day in a row on August 23, 2023. As the image also shows, sea surface temperatures over the past few months have been much higher for the time of year than in any other year on record. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36L5uIb0EABW7piJSFtwUFRjEOsfl6ZD4rnnrc8hB1oTq16Ezl4bNiLDOB8tSjtR9QOmiV6FxAQMGyWxXGH--ogYsE97X84rfM1246L8qlvWiPc7Q9jK8EReJAAEridHdk5bbQlbsgxpAv9Sdl3wZtai6oPT4TWCE_eHxd_EUfxYw_XJVlVohhlCi6L0/s1200/August-23-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1200" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36L5uIb0EABW7piJSFtwUFRjEOsfl6ZD4rnnrc8hB1oTq16Ezl4bNiLDOB8tSjtR9QOmiV6FxAQMGyWxXGH--ogYsE97X84rfM1246L8qlvWiPc7Q9jK8EReJAAEridHdk5bbQlbsgxpAv9Sdl3wZtai6oPT4TWCE_eHxd_EUfxYw_XJVlVohhlCi6L0/w640-h384/August-23-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>The image below shows why this recent sea surface temperature rise is so worrying. The image below is based on <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">NASA data</a> for monthly mean global surface temperature anomalies (open ocean) vs 1901-1930. The ochre trend, based on January 1900-July 2023 data, indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2021 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed by the end of 2033. Both trends extend into the future for 15 years, but the red trend is based on July 2008-July 2023 data and better reflects <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">El Niño and other variables</a>, and this red trend indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2023 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed later this year.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgga68pMp5k-l_HOx_QBZlZImyFRjHfOfOz5KHLQZMyDyrFJOipBq8QZYgqux2gDG-Rra9d4Bg5rqO1l5yl-OdPA1nR0Dba_lQx-ffI7pdj-W61yaPJnDPK8jRtQCG6L-gdLJ-n8LAFo5mUynBGILHj0e6kUFeyZwrMjE1JqptHgH2hx5S9gmiBndnUNtw/s1200/Ocean-surface-July-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1200" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgga68pMp5k-l_HOx_QBZlZImyFRjHfOfOz5KHLQZMyDyrFJOipBq8QZYgqux2gDG-Rra9d4Bg5rqO1l5yl-OdPA1nR0Dba_lQx-ffI7pdj-W61yaPJnDPK8jRtQCG6L-gdLJ-n8LAFo5mUynBGILHj0e6kUFeyZwrMjE1JqptHgH2hx5S9gmiBndnUNtw/w640-h254/Ocean-surface-July-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Sea ice constitutes a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">latent heat buffer</a>, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains at 0°C (273.15K or 32 °F). Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and wil do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises. </p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="569" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUCv5yWhEHnsot3P8Rz2eczTCokFxi4zLdbaFLUdXmgvf4HjudQZ4NMRRlFLTDG4xxJKk7mMMRduHE_F368MeURu8ZQhnMvJYNl8sDiQ6JW9H9TjnVeFhCA-F6995FyYOQ-4s4uM7WNag/s1600/latent-heat.png" style="border: none; color: #cc4411; font-size: 14.85px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; position: relative;" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ The <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Latent Heat Buffer</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTwX3UV_rPVUDTWYAsuFvyH1C1idtvjyCbjFs0zr2tHP6nnnAwiPxwvxFrCuNhUlJNctHc5tK7cCuKlE7zTF1kG1bh01BBwFLOQ39EvWizYsvaW6VcBMz4Q_6K380H-OzTxuB9tNOHH847aP0chZq3XHt8yQo01KUJFyz-kgaOWDAkFlrIJ2kdKglJZTE/s796/July-25-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; color: #cc4411; display: inline; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="650" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTwX3UV_rPVUDTWYAsuFvyH1C1idtvjyCbjFs0zr2tHP6nnnAwiPxwvxFrCuNhUlJNctHc5tK7cCuKlE7zTF1kG1bh01BBwFLOQ39EvWizYsvaW6VcBMz4Q_6K380H-OzTxuB9tNOHH847aP0chZq3XHt8yQo01KUJFyz-kgaOWDAkFlrIJ2kdKglJZTE/w326-h400/July-25-2023.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="326" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ sea ice thickness, from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">earlier post</a> ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>Loss of this buffer is linked to subsequent destabilization of methane hydrates. So, there are two tipping points that are linked, and the latent heat tipping point gets crossed in the Arctic before the seafloor methane tipping point gets reached.<br /><br /></div><div>The situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin. The image on the right, from <a href="https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start">Uni of Bremen</a>, shows that on July 25, 2023, there was virtually no Arctic sea ice left that was more than 30 cm thick. </div><div><br /></div><div>The latent heat tipping point is the point where Arctic sea ice loss is such that further incoming ocean heat that was previously consumed as Arctic sea ice melted, instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. </div><div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaMk7BjlH-uTYiWZNlJI_ql9Lb5nbX25z6FOpXmuN-wuBdJyMceFW62oY9GeAR6WxyVhU4Dp5VSM2uJ65viG4a0fEE3dT6hWjyUslHQfjIo7g1FBSKMo_VxdGEcDHrjCceQtzBQ4y5Og9eSgtcOQ2DfwgpljGJxJ6iEyMK-fL5CBLG-yE8zRbvjnJb5Ww/s1046/August-2-2023-2.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="968" data-original-width="1046" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaMk7BjlH-uTYiWZNlJI_ql9Lb5nbX25z6FOpXmuN-wuBdJyMceFW62oY9GeAR6WxyVhU4Dp5VSM2uJ65viG4a0fEE3dT6hWjyUslHQfjIo7g1FBSKMo_VxdGEcDHrjCceQtzBQ4y5Og9eSgtcOQ2DfwgpljGJxJ6iEyMK-fL5CBLG-yE8zRbvjnJb5Ww/s320/August-2-2023-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ sea surface temperature anomaly ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>The image on the right, adapted from nullschool.net, shows that on August 2, 2023, most of the Arctic Ocean was showing surface temperatures above the daily average during 1981-2011, indicating that the latent heat tipping point was reached. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to correspond with an ocean temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average, 1901-1930 on the above image.<div><div><br /></div><div>The image underneath, also from nullschool.net, shows the situation on August 20, 2023, when temperatures at the North Pole had been above zero for more than a day and temperatures were forecast to go below zero only twice briefly afterwards, for the period up to August 24, 2023 19:00 UTC (which is as far as the forecast went at the time. </div><div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Kg0860dwzDQPqsxL9-sI88doAcpARPf1rM055z-7_BJhMjt92M4pH14cBNpkaoGbayuqKjvt7iVA1iOJwuYOOP5EGsuXtKzCyUy_scvZ92dTekH6SyAM7v1dWrAusWf3aPW8cCzRLwwcx02lLN6pxEa_iCnxvszkAM_fU6xiKspO1VNRpwWm8mTd7Is/s1224/August-20-2023.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="959" data-original-width="1224" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Kg0860dwzDQPqsxL9-sI88doAcpARPf1rM055z-7_BJhMjt92M4pH14cBNpkaoGbayuqKjvt7iVA1iOJwuYOOP5EGsuXtKzCyUy_scvZ92dTekH6SyAM7v1dWrAusWf3aPW8cCzRLwwcx02lLN6pxEa_iCnxvszkAM_fU6xiKspO1VNRpwWm8mTd7Is/s320/August-20-2023.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ surface temperature ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
This is a further indication that the latent heat tipping point has been reached and that no more heat can be consumed by sea ice melting.
<br /><div><br /></div><div>How much sea ice is left? What does the sea ice look like, near the North Pole? Satellite images can give a good impression, but clouds can obscure the view. A clearer view can be obtained by comparing images over several days. </div><div><br /></div><div>An animation can reveal how much, or rather how little sea ice is left, and to what extent water of the Arctic Ocean is visible. </div><div><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtKndPLyD_N0PaCT3pajmCnd3BAorgkUbbij4vNMg-UGXwrNIBBmIar5zeyUmk-BNpU4uecugvgyEhLOphfIf45hvedn7m_tKZ8bsi7Pyotjug4cyEwpZxFJeHTdNup_F1DyJ2ubS9f6Pe__a5A0ad_0Sv6Ffu0npTYXftbFa7QhVH1hKhq9vFUJXtAwI/s997/August-11-19-2023-2.gif" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="997" data-original-width="747" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtKndPLyD_N0PaCT3pajmCnd3BAorgkUbbij4vNMg-UGXwrNIBBmIar5zeyUmk-BNpU4uecugvgyEhLOphfIf45hvedn7m_tKZ8bsi7Pyotjug4cyEwpZxFJeHTdNup_F1DyJ2ubS9f6Pe__a5A0ad_0Sv6Ffu0npTYXftbFa7QhVH1hKhq9vFUJXtAwI/w300-h400/August-11-19-2023-2.gif" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ Satellite view, click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table><div>The animation on the right is made with four NASA Worldview images, showing the situation on August 11, 15, 16 and 19, 2023. </div><div><br /></div><div>The second tipping point, the seafloor methane tipping point, occurs as more heat reaches the seafloor where it destabilizes hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor.</div>
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<div>This tipping point comes with multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops, such as explosive growth in methane volume setting off further destabilization, rapid rise of Arctic temperatures, loss of permafrost and loss of albedo, and release of further greenhouse gases. </div>
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<div>Crossing of the seafloor methane tipping point will occur later than crossing of the latent heat tipping point, so the seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to correspond with a higher ocean temperature anomaly.</div></div>
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The current situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin (image right) and the latent heat tipping point has been crossed. <div><br /></div>
<div>As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat can reach sediments located at the seafloor, since much of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow and sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can contain vast amounts of methane.
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The danger is that further heat will destabilize hydrates in these sediments, leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, and resulting in huge eruptions of methane both from the destabilizing hydrates and from methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/s1200/NH-ocean-temperature.png" style="color: #992211; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1200" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwd9dD5vfPhG2PHF-DLMfmBolA925v-t57pM9OSHrMu9ST9GHtqkNuvvEQR6FlBJ8pb2DyuzGEMkvcLK2PO5leYXGLN-342Ttmvv6xPgSeSLGprDKXm-32EzWDecjP9dCUIRCtfWmu2SbBs1ChfdzTKsJyFgpvgvMZTkciEOU8DFrZxpdZcjM9aU5v/w640-h266/NH-ocean-temperature.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>[ from <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">earlier post</a>, click on images to enlarge ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
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The above image, from an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">earlier post</a>, illustrates that warnings have been given before about the danger of these two tipping points getting crossed in the Arctic. In the above image, the trends are based on annual sea surface temperature data for the Northern Hemisphere. The seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to get crossed when the ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere goes beyond 1.35°C above its long term average. </div>
<div><br />The <a href="https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/7900549">Argo Float 7900549</a> compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of approximately 100 meters. The image shows temperatures as high as 5°C at that altitude.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1g6HNSHxESzRKFpCxhJeIln8voYNK6x67-_KgnznW3a2KElJgeAWptkVRpC91gHSyFDZOigk-qlmjcnIvRHtncmXaQ4dzmGzpllJoz0Io4_BSLFCW9Nx_Fj_GgrCjJiV0lJ_Di_Fj9oNu9TVzf1dsYSyV29lUy2QgKn-zwIJ5HuCI6n6G21wYXbPBXBg/s1508/August-14-2023-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="981" data-original-width="1508" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1g6HNSHxESzRKFpCxhJeIln8voYNK6x67-_KgnznW3a2KElJgeAWptkVRpC91gHSyFDZOigk-qlmjcnIvRHtncmXaQ4dzmGzpllJoz0Io4_BSLFCW9Nx_Fj_GgrCjJiV0lJ_Di_Fj9oNu9TVzf1dsYSyV29lUy2QgKn-zwIJ5HuCI6n6G21wYXbPBXBg/w640-h416/August-14-2023-2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Stronger winds along the path of the Gulf Stream can at times speed up sea currents that travel underneath the surface. As a result, huge amounts of hot, salty water can travel from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean, abruptly pushing up temperatures and salinity levels at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, which in many places is very shallow.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirmIXTFtcNaVcBGVWfN9AX1Z1ewdBN9GA73--GRCccI_D9J4FWNSf6uxqz4bbjPshBBlghSgoL70Q9mksO2OcSwA_1jPSFr6BBDJHhK35dmjkOz58Ljj41TeasRJI0QT3wIp3sL-C8HLszvwP8nTYvB74sGUmySa1PZHaOThrXRxC4c3Uopd35qGPr44s/s1508/August-10-2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="981" data-original-width="1508" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirmIXTFtcNaVcBGVWfN9AX1Z1ewdBN9GA73--GRCccI_D9J4FWNSf6uxqz4bbjPshBBlghSgoL70Q9mksO2OcSwA_1jPSFr6BBDJHhK35dmjkOz58Ljj41TeasRJI0QT3wIp3sL-C8HLszvwP8nTYvB74sGUmySa1PZHaOThrXRxC4c3Uopd35qGPr44s/w640-h416/August-10-2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The above image shows details of <a href="https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/7901007">Argo float 9701007</a>, further illustrating the danger that heat can reach the seafloor. North of Norway, where the water is less than 400 m deep, temperatures higher than 5°C show up throughout the vertical water column, up to August 10, 2023, when temperatures above 11°C were recorded close to the sea surface. The colored inset also shows that greater mixing down of heat occurred from October to December 2022, as the sea ice started to return and seal off the surface, preventing heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere, as also discussed at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html#21">FAQ #11</a>. </div>
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<div>Below is another image adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, showing that the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean has for months been much higher for the time of year than it was in previous years on record. Eight causes behind this have been discussed in an <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">earlier post</a>. The image below shows the situation on August 28, 2023, with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reaching a record high of 25.34°C or 77.61°F. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WRE3uixcHVeGJRQUgH_O3NA5DTGtgovoyJO-zJ5-BuAefMxAM-sQGYKlhT_elV_z6eD_r4BIDpuT5Uog_iAhcP8SuVoBbQKdMelXoZovklle4skn0jRWFMbChIMApJUtn2aT04JXc7XLzqex8OZ7d7pB9_lYZrT7Sn-QOSzSEAba-IoCKcId3huuG44/s1200/August-28-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="1200" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WRE3uixcHVeGJRQUgH_O3NA5DTGtgovoyJO-zJ5-BuAefMxAM-sQGYKlhT_elV_z6eD_r4BIDpuT5Uog_iAhcP8SuVoBbQKdMelXoZovklle4skn0jRWFMbChIMApJUtn2aT04JXc7XLzqex8OZ7d7pB9_lYZrT7Sn-QOSzSEAba-IoCKcId3huuG44/w640-h386/August-28-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows how the Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, while sea surface temperatures show up as high as 33.6°C or 92.48°F on August 17, 2023. </div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSqU_zHtLtr6JK2-zqsob-SVilghDB8HXeBqqONFH_G3k-TKEPOKmITWmNQ5YdeXHVzAzBMOWX3DrAE3L3vJ39YNii7T3vSIHoaYYe-jBGBvxf6ndX7NwNEF_L4_ZKriqJqYwXgk7cFV-Mkdm-uvq3hKXTW4Z3FKYNeWKEVCTvmfLRFrHtiykBgqh0zyI/s1902/August-17-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1168" data-original-width="1902" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSqU_zHtLtr6JK2-zqsob-SVilghDB8HXeBqqONFH_G3k-TKEPOKmITWmNQ5YdeXHVzAzBMOWX3DrAE3L3vJ39YNii7T3vSIHoaYYe-jBGBvxf6ndX7NwNEF_L4_ZKriqJqYwXgk7cFV-Mkdm-uvq3hKXTW4Z3FKYNeWKEVCTvmfLRFrHtiykBgqh0zyI/w640-h394/August-17-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-bottom: 0.5em; padding: 4px; position: relative;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvDwmu_YjRAg1wImDRIYptnL3m_rPEPOtn0sDfOpW1fuvQ5vR9VLxVFmZ0F7Etw7X839P0OWtN4ea08ZTGSrmIkwxsiOZRPMpjzrC7dUeLcno19yb8cuxSlcWE2knhezsxR5RifvkbjqEl2Hb3-K8Zk9zoFmPLZ_zBat9IYVDVmYfw7uP8KlaBZkK8/s685/cyclone.gif" style="clear: right; color: #992211; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 0em; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="524" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvDwmu_YjRAg1wImDRIYptnL3m_rPEPOtn0sDfOpW1fuvQ5vR9VLxVFmZ0F7Etw7X839P0OWtN4ea08ZTGSrmIkwxsiOZRPMpjzrC7dUeLcno19yb8cuxSlcWE2knhezsxR5RifvkbjqEl2Hb3-K8Zk9zoFmPLZ_zBat9IYVDVmYfw7uP8KlaBZkK8/s320/cyclone.gif" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="245" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px; text-align: center;"><i>[ 2022 animation ]</i></td></tr></tbody></table>
Studies, some of them dating back more than two decades, show that over the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) winds at times can mix the water column from the top to the bottom. A 2005 <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022490">study of the ESAS</a> led by Igor Semiletov recorded water temperatures at the seafloor, in September 2000, of 4.7°C at 20m depth at one location and 2.11°C at 41m depth at another location, with salinity levels of 29.7‰ and of 31.7‰, respectively.
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A deformed Jet Stream, in combination with a cyclone, could similarly result in strong winds abruptly pushing a huge amount of heat through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. <br /><br /></div>
<div>The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10166948876390161">animation</a> on the right shows how remnants of Typhoon Merbok were forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022.</div>
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<div><br /></div><div>The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the (2-meter) air temperature in the Arctic was 3.79°C on August 25, 2023, a record high for the time of year and 2.08°C higher than the 1979-2011 mean for that day.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUrnqooU8IlLARQojgzlNhmsoSJNJPSAilcdEsZ9-7ZlAztuS5mR0htZW1geQwTQB9hg0waSR_Qr-YzmTJzzsA6uoXtB5QEL7PxLe22NWpzcPx4IxX16Ky9RTVjiHMMzbeoSofwi-MXGQ6RlqQH0qnGqaYZCmfl1Qd0mIeezViNAYx-qBS2qugCgzGnfw/s1200/Arctic-August-25-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1200" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUrnqooU8IlLARQojgzlNhmsoSJNJPSAilcdEsZ9-7ZlAztuS5mR0htZW1geQwTQB9hg0waSR_Qr-YzmTJzzsA6uoXtB5QEL7PxLe22NWpzcPx4IxX16Ky9RTVjiHMMzbeoSofwi-MXGQ6RlqQH0qnGqaYZCmfl1Qd0mIeezViNAYx-qBS2qugCgzGnfw/w640-h386/Arctic-August-25-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<div>The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow. </div>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s1600/Buffer.png" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAXR3hOXHAGT85JZc42z6Dr-n-bYedPzxgoAlf6eBv5fvoHOEyKOK0o3wVUX_XNZnm6L6jBeAeiqmtoJcJU5gkYxS9wYD1Gj4M4S8ZnHjXmh17XlOStewCLMpRlCyzkWk1GMyqmCrNj0/s640/Buffer.png" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 11.88px;"><i>[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html" style="color: #771000; text-decoration-line: none;">Feedbacks page</a> ]
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Further adding to the danger is that destabilization of methane hydrates can cause huge amounts of methane to erupt with great force in the form of plumes. Consequently, little of the methane can be broken down in the water by microbes, while there is very little hydroxyl in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean to break down the methane that enters the atmosphere.</div>
<br />Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">NOAA</a> images below.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh02XkzYIRaiKpjUcb15igwGvNkWk0s9b6lgn1Kq_bU40oUHqMDPcxBwqgI7IKBvGNj6bFB4aTXzobrl7GEYa1LJkMcgbNH9-gSSmQMAxIhjUg_g3cJs2FcXc5b4TQYJ8B9v-y-i7a5Z520k1iS42BH_zElHwUeb-Jc0SeEZ3NibLfcZKVIHbywqXWdEpg/s1186/August-15-2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1186" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh02XkzYIRaiKpjUcb15igwGvNkWk0s9b6lgn1Kq_bU40oUHqMDPcxBwqgI7IKBvGNj6bFB4aTXzobrl7GEYa1LJkMcgbNH9-gSSmQMAxIhjUg_g3cJs2FcXc5b4TQYJ8B9v-y-i7a5Z520k1iS42BH_zElHwUeb-Jc0SeEZ3NibLfcZKVIHbywqXWdEpg/w640-h462/August-15-2023.png" width="640" /></a></div>The most recent monthly methane average recorded at Barrow, Alaska, is above 2080 parts per billion.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELHiwJYR7GW9nWeGwEvG0ANBGnVxNbRDJsmVgJaH2L2EIqODXwTVFzoctZyMlic41T8iD1uSAtOaq3qpPQzXydmprQ3xpVs9zviQb4LhMNS0iCHlJ-xCAGFTIHyLiTk87FfBx6F7NxSNLw3A-agwDVzQGegHN1dbAaB1CxHRB2PslsZIoKfVCeBDTDTg/s1200/August-26-2023-2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="855" data-original-width="1200" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELHiwJYR7GW9nWeGwEvG0ANBGnVxNbRDJsmVgJaH2L2EIqODXwTVFzoctZyMlic41T8iD1uSAtOaq3qpPQzXydmprQ3xpVs9zviQb4LhMNS0iCHlJ-xCAGFTIHyLiTk87FfBx6F7NxSNLw3A-agwDVzQGegHN1dbAaB1CxHRB2PslsZIoKfVCeBDTDTg/w640-h456/August-26-2023-2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
In the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdqshUl-K2Y">video below</a>, Guy McPherson describes the dire situation. <br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MdqshUl-K2Y" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div>
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<div><b>Climate Emergency Declaration</b><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><br /></div>A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and runaway heating could destroy all life. At 5°C heating, most life on Earth will have disappeared. When looking only at near-term human extinction, 3°C will likely suffice.
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The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">Climate Emergency Declaration</a> and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">Climate Plan</a> with an update at <a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">Transforming Society</a>.
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<div><b>Links</b><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily</a><br /><br />• Climate Reanalyzer - daily 2-meter air temperature<br /><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily">https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily</a><br /><br />• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis</div><div><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html</a><br /><br />• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice<br /><a href="https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start">https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start</a><br /><br />• nullschool.net</div><div><a href="https://earth.nullschool.net">https://earth.nullschool.net</a><br /><br />• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States<br /><a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts">https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts</a><br /><br />• Argo Float<br /><a href="https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu">https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu</a><br /><br />• Remnants of Typhoon Merbok forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022.<br />Discussed at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10166948876390161">https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10166948876390161</a>, from: <br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html</a><br /><br />• The East Siberian Sea as a transition zone between Pacific-derived waters and Arctic shelf waters - by Igor Semiletov et al. (2005)<br /><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022490">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022490</a><br /><br />• Sea surface temperature at record high<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html</a></div><div><br /></div>• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature<div><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html</a></div><br /></div><div>• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html</a><br /><br />• Latent Heat<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html</a><br /><br />• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinction<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html</a><br /><br />• FAQ<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html</a><br /><br />• Feedbacks<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html</a></div><div><br />• Climate Plan<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html</a><br /><br />• Transforming Society<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html</a><br /><br />• Climate Emergency Declaration<br /><a href="https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html">https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html</a><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="812" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FSamCarana%2Fposts%2F10168282665565161&show_text=true&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe></div><br /></div></div></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com